The effects of mailing design characteristics on direct mail campaign performance

Designing effective direct mail pieces is considered a key success factor in direct marketing. However, related published empirical research is scarce while design recommendations are manifold and often conflicting. Compared with prior work, our study aims to provide more elaborate and empirically validated findings for the effects of direct mail design characteristics by analyzing 677 direct mail campaigns from non-profit organizations and financial service providers. We investigate the effects of (1) various envelope characteristics and observable cues on opening rates, and (2) characteristics of the envelope content on the keeping rates of direct mail campaigns. We show that visual design elements on the outer envelope – rather than sender-related details – are the predominant drivers of opening rates. Factors such as letter length, provision of sender information in the letter, and personalization positively influence the keeping rate. We also observe that opening and keeping rates are uncorrelated at the campaign level, implying that opening direct mail pieces is only a necessary condition for responding to offers, but not per se a driver of direct mail response.

The effects of the social structure of digital networks on viral marketing performance

Viral marketing is a form of peer-to-peer communication in which individuals are encouraged to pass on promotional messages within their social networks. Conventional wisdom holds that the viral marketing process is both random and unmanageable. In this paper, we deconstruct the process and investigate the formation of the activated digital network as distinct from the underlying social network. We then consider the impact of the social structure of digital networks (random, scale free, and small world) and of the transmission behavior of individuals on campaign performance. Specifically, we identify alternative social network models to understand the mediating effects of the social structures of these models on viral marketing campaigns. Next, we analyse an actual viral marketing campaign and use the empirical data to develop and validate a computer simulation model for viral marketing. Finally, we conduct a number of simulation experiments to predict the spread of a viral message within different types of social network structures under different assumptions and scenarios. Our findings confirm that the social structure of digital networks play a critical role in the spread of a viral message. Managers seeking to optimize campaign performance should give consideration to these findings before designing and implementing viral marketing campaigns. We also demonstrate how a simulation model is used to quantify the impact of campaign management inputs and how these learnings can support managerial decision making.

Experimental evaluation of the performance of 2×2 MIMO-OFDM for vehicle-to-infrastructure communications

In this paper, a novel 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) testbed based on an Analog Devices AD9361 highly integrated radio frequency (RF) agile transceiver was specifically implemented for the purpose of estimating and analyzing MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) environments using the 920 MHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) band. We implemented two-dimensional discrete cosine transform-based filtering to reduce the channel estimation errors and show its effectiveness on our measurement results. We have also analyzed the effects of channel estimation error on the MIMO channel capacity by simulation. Three different scenarios of subcarrier spacing were investigated which correspond to IEEE 802.11p, Long-Term Evolution (LTE), and Digital Video Broadcasting Terrestrial (DVB-T)(2k) standards. An extensive MIMO-OFDM V2I channel measurement campaign was performed in a suburban environment. Analysis of the measured MIMO channel capacity results as a function of the transmitter-to-receiver (TX-RX) separation distance up to 250 m shows that the variance of the MIMO channel capacity is larger for the near-range line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios than for the long-range non-LOS cases, using a fixed receiver signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion. We observed that the largest capacity values were achieved at LOS propagation despite the common assumption of a degenerated MIMO channel in LOS. We consider that this is due to the large angular spacing between MIMO subchannels which occurs when the receiver vehicle rooftop antennas pass by the fixed transmitter antennas at close range, causing MIMO subchannels to be orthogonal. In addition, analysis on the effects of different subcarrier spacings on MIMO-OFDM channel capacity showed negligible differences in mean channel capacity for the subcarrier spacing range investigated. Measured channels described in this paper are available on request.

Real time fault injection using enhanced OCD -- a performance analysis

Fault injection is frequently used for the verification and validation of dependable systems. When targeting real time microprocessor based systems the process becomes significantly more complex. This paper proposes two complementary solutions to improve real time fault injection campaign execution, both in terms of performance and capabilities. The methodology is based on the use of the on-chip debug mechanisms present in modern electronic devices. The main objective is the injection of faults in microprocessor memory elements with minimum delay and intrusiveness. Different configurations were implemented and compared in terms of performance gain and logic overhead.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Design of a valid simulation for researching physical, physiological and cognitive performance in volunteer firefighters during bushfire deployment.

Every year, Australian firefighters protect our nation from the devastation of bushfire. Understanding the impact of consecutive long shifts in hot, smoky conditions is essential for making decisions during campaign fires. At present, the evidence-base for such decisions is limited to laboratory studies with little relevance to bushfire suppression or field research where the impact of environmental and workload stressors cannot be measured. To counter these limitations, we have developed a three-day simulation that mimics the work and environment of campaign bushfire suppression. Construction of the simulation involved three stages; 1) data collection and analysis; 2) design and development; and 3) trial and refinement. The frequency, intensity, duration and type of physical work performed on the fireground is well documented and a modified applied cognitive task analysis, using experienced firefighters was used as a framework to describe in detail the non-physical aspects of the work. The design and development of the simulation incorporated the physical and non-physical aspects of the work into simulated tasks. Finally, experienced firefighters participated in trials of the simulation and reviewed digital recordings to ensure that the simulation accurately represented campaign bushfire suppression work. The outcome of this project is a valid, realistic, and reliable simulation of the physiological, physical and cognitive aspects of a volunteer firefighter on a three-day bushfire deployment.

Comparing churn prediction techniques and assessing their performance: a contingent perspective

Customer retention has become a focal priority. However, the process of implementing an effective retention campaign is complex and dependent on firms’ ability to accurately identify both at-risk customers and those worth retaining. Drawing on empirical and simulated data from two online retailers, we evaluate the performance of several parametric and nonparametric churn prediction techniques, in order to identify the optimal modeling approach, dependent on context. Results show that under most circumstances (i.e., varying sample sizes, purchase frequencies, and churn ratios), the boosting technique, a nonparametric method, delivers superior predictability. Furthermore, in cases/contexts where churn is more rare, logistic regression prevails. Finally, where the size of the customer base is very small, parametric probability models outperform other techniques.

Performance Analysis of MODIS 500-m Spatial Resolution Products for Estimating Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Oligo-to Meso-Trophic Waters Case Study: Itumbiara Reservoir, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Performance Analysis and Improvements for the Future Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS)

This thesis deals with the development of the upcoming aeronautical mobile airport communications system (AeroMACS) system. We analyzed the performance of AeroMACS and we investigated potential solutions for enhancing its performance. Since the most critical results correspond to the channel scenario having less diversity1, we tackled this problem investigating potential solutions for increasing the diversity of the system and therefore improving its performance. We accounted different forms of diversity as space diversity and time diversity. More specifically, space (antenna and cooperative) diversity and time diversity are analyzed as countermeasures for the harsh fading conditions that are typical of airport environments. Among the analyzed techniques, two novel concepts are introduced, namely unequal diversity coding and flexible packet level codes. The proposed techniques have been analyzed on a novel airport channel model, derived from a measurement campaign at the airport of Munich (Germany). The introduced techniques largely improve the performance of the conventional AeroMACS link; representing thus appealing solutions for the long term evolution of the system.

EVALUATING THE INSTALLATION AND PERFORMANCE OF MANUALLY DRILLED WELLS IN NORTH-EASTERN MADAGASCAR

Manual drilling is a popular solution for programs seeking to increase drinking water supply in rural Madagascar. Lightweight, affordable and locally produced drilling equipment allows rapid implementation where access is problematic and funds are limited. This report will look at the practical implications of using manual drilling as a one-step solution to potable water in rural development. The main benefits of using these techniques are time and cost savings. The author uses his experience managing a drilling campaign in northeastern Madagascar to explore the benefits and limitations of one particular drilling methodology – BushProof’s Madrill technique. Just under 200 wells were drilled using this method in the course of one fiscal year (September 2011-September 2012). The paper explores what compromises must be considered in the quest for cost-effective boreholes and whether everybody - from the implementers to project managers to clients and lawmakers - are in agreement about the consequences of such compromises. The paper also discusses water quality issues encountered when drilling in shallow aquifers.

Effects of an educational patient safety campaign on patients' safety behaviours and adverse events

Rationale, aims and objectives  The study aims to investigate the effects of a patient safety advisory on patients' risk perceptions, perceived behavioural control, performance of safety behaviours and experience of adverse incidents. Method  Quasi-experimental intervention study with non-equivalent group comparison was used. Patients admitted to the surgical department of a Swiss large non-university hospital were included. Patients in the intervention group received a safety advisory at their first clinical encounter. Outcomes were assessed using a questionnaire at discharge. Odds ratios for control versus intervention group were calculated. Regression analysis was used to model the effects of the intervention and safety behaviours on the experience of safety incidents. Results  Two hundred eighteen patients in the control and 202 in the intervention group completed the survey (75 and 77% response rates, respectively). Patients in the intervention group were less likely to feel poorly informed about medical errors (OR = 0.55, P = 0.043). There were 73.1% in the intervention and 84.3% in the control group who underestimated the risk for infection (OR = 0.51, CI 0.31-0.84, P = 0.009). Perceived behavioural control was lower in the control group (meanCon  = 3.2, meanInt  = 3.5, P = 0.010). Performance of safety-related behaviours was unaffected by the intervention. Patients in the intervention group were less likely to experience any safety-related incident or unsafe situation (OR for intervention group = 0.57, CI 0.38-0.87, P = 0.009). There were no differences in concerns for errors during hospitalization. There were 96% of patients (intervention) who would recommend other patients to read the advisory. Conclusions  The results suggest that the safety advisory decreases experiences of adverse events and unsafe situations. It renders awareness and perceived behavioural control without increasing concerns for safety and can thus serve as a useful instrument for communication about safety between health care workers and patients.

Ballistic performance of nanocrystalline and nanotwinned ultrafine crystal steel

Because of their remarkable mechanical properties, nanocrystalline metals have been the focus of much research in recent years. Refining their grain size to the nanometer range (<100 nm) effectively reduces their dislocation mobility, thus achieving very high yield strength and surface hardness—as predicted by the Hall–Petch relation—as well as higher strain-rate sensitivity. Recent works have additionally suggested that nanocrystalline metals exhibit an even higher compressive strength under shock loading. However, the increase in strength of these materials is generally accompanied by an important reduction in ductility. As an alternative, efforts have been focused on ultrafine crystals, i.e. polycrystals with a grain size in the range of 500 nm to 1 μm, in which “growth twins” (twins introduced inside the grain before deformation) act as barriers against dislocation movement, thus increasing the strength in a similar way as nanocrystals but without significant loss of ductility. Due to their outstanding mechanical properties, both nanocrystalline and nanotwinned ultrafine crystalline steels appear to be relevant candidates for ballistic protection. The aim of the present work is to compare their ballistic performance against coarse-grained steel, as well as to identify the effect of the hybridization with a carbon fiber–epoxy composite layer. Hybridization is proposed as a way to improve the nanocrystalline brittle properties in a similar way as is done with ceramics in other protection systems. The experimental campaign is finally complemented by numerical simulations to help identify some of the intrinsic deformation mechanisms not observable experimentally. As a conclusion, nanocrystalline and nanotwinned ultrafine crystals show a lower energy absorption than coarse-grained steel under ballistic loading, but under equal impact conditions with no penetration, deformation in the impact direction is smaller by nearly 40%. This a priori surprising difference in the energy absorption is rationalized by the more important local contribution of the deviatoric stress vs. volumetric stress under impact than under uniaxial deformation. Ultimately, the deformation advantage could be exploited in the future for personal protection systems where a small deformation under impact is of key importance.

Integral energy performance characterization of semi-transparent photovoltaic elements for building integration under real operation conditions

In this paper, a methodology for the integral energy performance characterization (thermal, daylighting and electrical behavior) of semi-transparent photovoltaic modules (STPV) under real operation conditions is presented. An outdoor testing facility to analyze simultaneously thermal, luminous and electrical performance of the devices has been designed, constructed and validated. The system, composed of three independent measurement subsystems, has been operated in Madrid with four prototypes of a-Si STPV modules, each one corresponding to a specific degree of transparency. The extensive experimental campaign, continued for a whole year rotating the modules under test, has validated the reliability of the testing facility under varying environmental conditions. The thermal analyses show that both the solar protection and insulating properties of the laminated prototypes are lower than those achieved by a reference glazing whose characteristics are in accordance with the Spanish Technical Building Code. Daylighting analysis shows that STPV elements have an important lighting energy saving potential that could be exploited through their integration with strategies focused to reduce illuminance values in sunny conditions. Finally, the electrical tests show that the degree of transparency is not the most determining factor that affects the conversion efficiency.