Practical Advice to Entrepreneurs Series by ACE Adjunct Professor Dean Shepherd: Practical advice for coping with business failure

The author, Dean Shepherd, is of entrepreneurship—how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. He recently realized that while his publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This series is designed to bring the practical implications of his research to the forefront.

Modelling construction business performance

Searching academic databases for records on ‘business failure’, ‘business distress’ or ‘bankruptcy’ yields a large body of studies on qualitative, empirical, theoretical and simulation aspects. It is a central part of this research to distil from this large quantity of potentially relevant reports and methodologies those which can both flag and predict business failure in the construction industry. An additional search term, such as, ‘construction’, ‘construction industry’ or ‘contractor’ yields a much smaller number of hits, many of which emphasize the construction industry’s distinctive characteristics. We scientists need first to understand the subject of investigation and the environment in which it lives. To do so, an analysis of existing successful and failed approaches to particular research questions is helpful before embarking on new territory. This guides the structure of the following report for we first review papers that specifically report on aspects of business failure in the construction industry followed by, (a) an overview of promising candidates borrowed from other disciplines and industries, and (b) a possible novel approach. An Australian (Queensland) perspective on the topic will also drive this investigation as most of the published research has been applied to the US and UK construction industries.

Practical Advice for Entrepreneurs

I am interested in the psychology of entrepreneurship—how entrepreneurs think, decide to act, and feel. I recently realized that while my publications in academic journals have implications for entrepreneurs, those implications have remained relatively hidden in the text of the articles and hidden in articles published in journals largely inaccessible to those involved in the entrepreneurial process. This book is designed to bring the practical implications of my research to the forefront. I decided to take a different approach with this book and not write it for a publisher. I did this because I wanted the ideas to be freely available: (1) I wanted those interested in practical advice for entrepreneurs to be able to freely download, distribute, and use this information (I only ask that the content be properly cited), (2) I wanted to release the chapters independently and make chapters available as they are finished, and; (3) I wanted this work to be a dialogue rather than a one-way conversation—I hope readers email me feedback (positive and negative) so that I can use this information to revise the book. In producing the journal articles underpinning this book, I have had the pleasure of working with many talented and wonderful colleagues—they are cited at the end of each chapter. I hope you find some of the advice in this book useful.

The conundrum of phoenix activity: Is further reform necessary?

Phoenix activity presents a conundrum for the law and its regulators. While there is economic cost associated with all phoenix activity, the underlying behaviour is not always illegal. A transaction with indicators of phoenix activity may be an entirely innocent and well-intentioned display of entrepreneurial spirit, albeit one that has ended in failure. Restructuring post business failure is not illegal per se. Recent reforms targeting phoenix activity fail to grapple with the vast range of behaviour that can be described as phoenix activity since they do not differentiate between legal and illegal activity. This article explores the importance of the distinction between legal and illegal phoenix activity, the extent to which the existing law captures a range of behaviour that can be described as illegal phoenix activity and the response of key regulators and governmental bodies to the absence of single law that attempts to define illegal phoenix activity.

My First 6701 Days : July 31 1921 to December 1939 /

The memoirs contain photocopies of documents and photos as well as extracts from letters and were written in October 1989 in the United States. Description of life in Baden, a famous health resort near Vienna. The family lived in Vienna in the second district (Leopoldstadt). Recollections of schoolteachers and childhood friends. Occasional Friday night services in the Leopoldstadt temple. Theater and opera visits and cultural life in Vienna. Private piano and music lessons. Description of the family apartment and Jewish life in the Leopoldstadt. The family celebrated Christmas and observed the high Jewish holidays. Recollections of the author's bar mitzvah celebration. His mother Charlotte, nee Schwadron, was an artistic woman, who studied painting at the Frauenakademie with Tina Blau. Walter's father Leo Schaffir was born in Byalistock, Russia and studied in Berlin. He was a travelling businessmen. His family lived in Lemberg, Galicia. Leo and Charlotte Schaffir got married in 1919 in Vienna by rabbi Dr. Grunwald. Recollections of a family trip to Poland and to the World Fair in Posen in 1930. Suicide of the author's father due to business failure in 1930. Schaffir and Schwadron family history. Both families originated in Galicia, Poland. Family and social life. Summer vacation at the Semmering. Austrian politics in the 1930's and rising National Socialism. Life in Vienna after the "Anschluss" in 1938. Walter had to leave school and took lessons in graphic arts with the artist Heinrich Koerner. Preparations to emigrate. Walter was picked up in the streets in the days after Kristallnacht and released due to his mother's intervention. He was sent with his brother Kurt on a "Kindertransport" to Holland. They were sent to a quarantine camp at Heyplaat. Reunition with their mother in the United States in December 1939. Reflections on life as an emigre.

Análisis del impacto del tamaño de los activos en la cuenta de resultados mediante la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia

Los resultados financieros de las organizaciones son objeto de estudio y análisis permanente, predecir sus comportamientos es una tarea permanente de empresarios, inversionistas, analistas y académicos. En el presente trabajo se explora el impacto del tamaño de los activos (valor total de los activos) en la cuenta de resultados operativos y netos, analizando inicialmente la relación entre dichas variables con indicadores tradicionales del análisis financiero como es el caso de la rentabilidad operativa y neta y con elementos de estadística descriptiva que permiten calificar los datos utilizados como lineales o no lineales. Descubriendo posteriormente que los resultados financieros de las empresas vigiladas por la Superintendencia de Sociedades para el año 2012, tienen un comportamiento no lineal, de esta manera se procede a analizar la relación de los activos y los resultados con la utilización de espacios de fase y análisis de recurrencia, herramientas útiles para sistemas caóticos y complejos. Para el desarrollo de la investigación y la revisión de la relación entre las variables de activos y resultados financieros se tomó como fuente de información los reportes financieros del cierre del año 2012 de la Superintendencia de Sociedades (Superintendencia de Sociedades, 2012).

Epidemiología y perdurabilidad empresarial en Colombia: Grupo Éxito

La muerte empresarial es un proceso que se ha venido presentando en compañías de las diferentes industrias a nivel nacional. La causa son los diferentes factores externos que impactan directamente las operaciones y estructura de estas. Con base en lo anterior es importante resaltar que existen diferentes tipos de muerte empresarial que para efectos de este trabajo se encontraron importante referenciar, pues son el marco del análisis de caso sobre Almacenes Éxito S.A. perteneciente al sector retail, donde se buscaba determinar cuál fue el tipo de cesión que tuvo, como consecuencia de la venta de acciones a la Compañía Francesa Casino Guichard-Perrachon S.A. Además del marco teórico empleado, se encontró importante realizar una reseña histórica de las diferentes empresas que han integrado el sector con el fin de entender posibles generalidades que se han venido replicando y que han llevado a la muerte empresarial de importantes compañías. Este trabajo permite la comprensión de las diferentes transformaciones que pueden tener los entes económicos a lo largo de su vida empresarial, no solo con lo que puede entenderse como el cese de operaciones sino también como apertura a nuevas estrategias de crecimiento y expansión.

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

Watch that space! The county hierarchy in firm births and deaths in the UK, 1980-1999

The paper investigates the relationships between registrations, de-registrations and population density at county level in the UK using VAT data for 20 years over the period 1980–1999. The rationale for this is based on the need to understand how the extent to which, in different parts of the UK, differences in the relationship between birth rates and death rates combine to produce an interpretable pattern in net birth rates. The analysis of the net birth rate shows that a strategy aimed at the net birth rate might, in principle, just as well aim at reducing business failure, rather than raising the birth rate. Indeed this might be more efficient, since it implies that less start-ups are ‘‘wasted’’ as it would avoid the necessity, if targets are to be reached, of encouraging those individuals who are patently unsuited to running their own business into business ownership.

Adaptation to flood risk:the case of businesses in the UK

Despite Government investment in flood defence schemes, many properties remain at high risk of flooding. A substantial portion of these properties are business establishments. Flooding can create serious consequences for businesses, including damage to property and stocks, being out of business for a considerable period and ultimately business failure. Recent flood events such as those in 2007 and 2009 that affected many parts of the UK have helped to establish the true costs of flooding to businesses. This greater understanding of the risks to businesses has heightened the need for business owners to adapt their businesses to the threat of future flooding. Government policy has now shifted away from investment in engineered flood defences, towards encouraging the uptake of property level flood resistance and resilience measures by businesses. However, implementing such adaptation strategies remains a challenge due a range of reasons. A review of the current state of property level flood risk adaptation of UK businesses is presented, drawing from extant literature. Barriers that may hinder the uptake of property level adaptation by businesses are revealed and drivers that may enhance uptake and effectively overcome these barriers are also discussed. It is concluded that the professions from the construction sector have the potential to contribute towards the adaptation of business properties and thereby the flood resilience of businesses at risk of flooding.

Növelhető-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képessége az új klasszifikációs módszerek nélkül? (Can the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models be increased without new classification methods?)

A Bázel–2. tőkeegyezmény bevezetését követően a bankok és hitelintézetek Magyarországon is megkezdték saját belső minősítő rendszereik felépítését, melyek karbantartása és fejlesztése folyamatos feladat. A szerző arra a kérdésre keres választ, hogy lehetséges-e a csőd-előrejelző modellek előre jelző képességét növelni a hagyományos matematikai-statisztikai módszerek alkalmazásával oly módon, hogy a modellekbe a pénzügyi mutatószámok időbeli változásának mértékét is beépítjük. Az empirikus kutatási eredmények arra engednek következtetni, hogy a hazai vállalkozások pénzügyi mutatószámainak időbeli alakulása fontos információt hordoz a vállalkozás jövőbeli fizetőképességéről, mivel azok felhasználása jelentősen növeli a csődmodellek előre jelző képességét. A szerző azt is megvizsgálja, hogy javítja-e a megfigyelések szélsőségesen magas vagy alacsony értékeinek modellezés előtti korrekciója a modellek klasszifikációs teljesítményét. ______ Banks and lenders in Hungary also began, after the introduction of the Basel 2 capital agreement, to build up their internal rating systems, whose maintenance and development are a continuing task. The author explores whether it is possible to increase the predictive capacity of business-failure forecasting models by traditional mathematical-cum-statistical means in such a way that they incorporate the measure of change in the financial indicators over time. Empirical findings suggest that the temporal development of the financial indicators of firms in Hungary carries important information about future ability to pay, since the predictive capacity of bankruptcy forecasting models is greatly increased by using such indicators. The author also examines whether the classification performance of the models can be improved by correcting for extremely high or low values before modelling.

Three essays on entrepreneurial motivation, entry, exit and monetary rewards

This dissertation analyzes rewards and motivations of self-employment. In light of recent research contributions of Barton Hamilton (2000), which find entrepreneurship not as financially rewarding as wage work, my dissertation attempts to both verify and explain this claim. The first essay proposes a theoretical model of evolution of erroneous earnings expectations on part of a nascent entrepreneur. Inability to observe, survey, and take into account all of the returns to entrepreneurship prior to business entry creates a biased set of beliefs on part of the potential entrants. Using Bayesian learning, a nascent entrepreneur starting out with correct perception of profit distribution arrives at erroneous beliefs by incorporating limited information collected from existing businesses. An observed distribution of surviving businesses would exhibit higher earnings because of previous, unobserved, business failure entrepreneur get an overly positive view of her profit potential. Hence, the chapter offers a unique method of modeling overconfidence. The second essay undertakes dynamic empirical comparison of earnings received by business owners and their wage counterparts. Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) I examine both short and long run returns to entrepreneurship comparing theses rewards to wage earners returns. I pay particular attention to transitions into and out of business ownership. I estimate entire earnings distribution. To characterize dynamic aspect of changes to individuals’ earnings I split the income distribution into five income quintiles and follow survey participants over the period of seven years. I find that period-to-period transitions to be Markovian. I find business tenure to be short, business ownership is costly in the short and rewarding in the long run. The third essay considered different reporting schemes applied to the self-employed. It is another empirical investigation of entrepreneurial earning uses Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). I find entrepreneurs while reporting lower than wage workers earnings enjoy significant consumption premiums. I observe evidence of income underreporting by entrepreneurs. This finding suggests a need for better earning comparison metrics and proposes to use consumption rather than income metrics for future comparisons.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.

Estudo sobre a mortalidade e sobrevivência de micro e pequenas empresas natalenses e seus impactos nas políticas públicas pró-empreendedorismo

The principal purpose of this research was to investigate discriminant factors of survival and failure of micro and small businesses, and the impacts of these factors in the public politics for entrepreneurship in the State of Rio Grande do Norte. The data were ceded by SEBRAE/RN and the Commercial Committee of the Rio Grande do Norte State and it included the businesses that were registered in 2000, 2001 and 2002. According to the theoretical framework 3 groups of factors were defined Business Financial Structure, Entrepreneurial Preparation and Entrepreneurial Behavior , and the factors were studied in order to determine whether they are discriminant or not of the survival and business failure. A quantitative research was applied and advanced statistical techniques were used multivariate data analysis , beginning with the factorial analysis and after using the discriminant analysis. As a result, canonical discriminant functions were found and they partially explained the survival and business failure in terms of the factors and groups of factors. The analysis also permitted the evaluation of the public politics for entrepreneurship and it was verified, according to the view of the entrepreneurs, that these politics were weakly effective to avoid business failure. Some changes in the referred politics were suggested based on the most significant factors found.