Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Statistical treatment of grain-size curves and empirical distributions: densities as compositions?

The preceding two editions of CoDaWork included talks on the possible considerationof densities as infinite compositions: Egozcue and D´ıaz-Barrero (2003) extended theEuclidean structure of the simplex to a Hilbert space structure of the set of densitieswithin a bounded interval, and van den Boogaart (2005) generalized this to the setof densities bounded by an arbitrary reference density. From the many variations ofthe Hilbert structures available, we work with three cases. For bounded variables, abasis derived from Legendre polynomials is used. For variables with a lower bound, westandardize them with respect to an exponential distribution and express their densitiesas coordinates in a basis derived from Laguerre polynomials. Finally, for unboundedvariables, a normal distribution is used as reference, and coordinates are obtained withrespect to a Hermite-polynomials-based basis.To get the coordinates, several approaches can be considered. A numerical accuracyproblem occurs if one estimates the coordinates directly by using discretized scalarproducts. Thus we propose to use a weighted linear regression approach, where all k-order polynomials are used as predictand variables and weights are proportional to thereference density. Finally, for the case of 2-order Hermite polinomials (normal reference)and 1-order Laguerre polinomials (exponential), one can also derive the coordinatesfrom their relationships to the classical mean and variance.Apart of these theoretical issues, this contribution focuses on the application of thistheory to two main problems in sedimentary geology: the comparison of several grainsize distributions, and the comparison among different rocks of the empirical distribution of a property measured on a batch of individual grains from the same rock orsediment, like their composition

Clique Irreducibility of Some Iterative Classes of Graphs

In this paper, two notions, the clique irreducibility and clique vertex irreducibility are discussed. A graph G is clique irreducible if every clique in G of size at least two, has an edge which does not lie in any other clique of G and it is clique vertex irreducible if every clique in G has a vertex which does not lie in any other clique of G. It is proved that L(G) is clique irreducible if and only if every triangle in G has a vertex of degree two. The conditions for the iterations of line graph, the Gallai graphs, the anti-Gallai graphs and its iterations to be clique irreducible and clique vertex irreducible are also obtained.

Clique Irreducibility and Clique Vertex Irreducibility of Graphs

A graphs G is clique irreducible if every clique in G of size at least two,has an edge which does not lie in any other clique of G and is clique reducible if it is not clique irreducible. A graph G is clique vertex irreducible if every clique in G has a vertex which does not lie in any other clique of G and clique vertex reducible if it is not clique vertex irreducible. The clique vertex irreducibility and clique irreducibility of graphs which are non-complete extended p-sums (NEPS) of two graphs are studied. We prove that if G(c) has at least two non-trivial components then G is clique vertex reducible and if it has at least three non-trivial components then G is clique reducible. The cographs and the distance hereditary graphs which are clique vertex irreducible and clique irreducible are also recursively characterized.

Statistical treatment of grain-size curves and empirical distributions: densities as compositions?

The preceding two editions of CoDaWork included talks on the possible consideration of densities as infinite compositions: Egozcue and D´ıaz-Barrero (2003) extended the Euclidean structure of the simplex to a Hilbert space structure of the set of densities within a bounded interval, and van den Boogaart (2005) generalized this to the set of densities bounded by an arbitrary reference density. From the many variations of the Hilbert structures available, we work with three cases. For bounded variables, a basis derived from Legendre polynomials is used. For variables with a lower bound, we standardize them with respect to an exponential distribution and express their densities as coordinates in a basis derived from Laguerre polynomials. Finally, for unbounded variables, a normal distribution is used as reference, and coordinates are obtained with respect to a Hermite-polynomials-based basis. To get the coordinates, several approaches can be considered. A numerical accuracy problem occurs if one estimates the coordinates directly by using discretized scalar products. Thus we propose to use a weighted linear regression approach, where all k- order polynomials are used as predictand variables and weights are proportional to the reference density. Finally, for the case of 2-order Hermite polinomials (normal reference) and 1-order Laguerre polinomials (exponential), one can also derive the coordinates from their relationships to the classical mean and variance. Apart of these theoretical issues, this contribution focuses on the application of this theory to two main problems in sedimentary geology: the comparison of several grain size distributions, and the comparison among different rocks of the empirical distribution of a property measured on a batch of individual grains from the same rock or sediment, like their composition

Some general comparative points on Chao’s and Zelterman’s estimators of population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Some general comparative points on Chao's and Zelterman's estimators of the population size

Two simple and frequently used capture–recapture estimates of the population size are compared: Chao's lower-bound estimate and Zelterman's estimate allowing for contaminated distributions. In the Poisson case it is shown that if there are only counts of ones and twos, the estimator of Zelterman is always bounded above by Chao's estimator. If counts larger than two exist, the estimator of Zelterman is becoming larger than that of Chao's, if only the ratio of the frequencies of counts of twos and ones is small enough. A similar analysis is provided for the binomial case. For a two-component mixture of Poisson distributions the asymptotic bias of both estimators is derived and it is shown that the Zelterman estimator can experience large overestimation bias. A modified Zelterman estimator is suggested and also the bias-corrected version of Chao's estimator is considered. All four estimators are compared in a simulation study.

Testing for unit roots in bounded time series

Many key economic and financial series are bounded either by construction or through policy controls. Conventional unit root tests are potentially unreliable in the presence of bounds, since they tend to over-reject the null hypothesis of a unit root, even asymptotically. So far, very little work has been undertaken to develop unit root tests which can be applied to bounded time series. In this paper we address this gap in the literature by proposing unit root tests which are valid in the presence of bounds. We present new augmented Dickey–Fuller type tests as well as new versions of the modified ‘M’ tests developed by Ng and Perron [Ng, S., Perron, P., 2001. LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica 69, 1519–1554] and demonstrate how these tests, combined with a simulation-based method to retrieve the relevant critical values, make it possible to control size asymptotically. A Monte Carlo study suggests that the proposed tests perform well in finite samples. Moreover, the tests outperform the Phillips–Perron type tests originally proposed in Cavaliere [Cavaliere, G., 2005. Limited time series with a unit root. Econometric Theory 21, 907–945]. An illustrative application to U.S. interest rate data is provided

Sparse partition universal graphs for graphs of bounded degree

In 1983, Chvatal, Trotter and the two senior authors proved that for any Delta there exists a constant B such that, for any n, any 2-colouring of the edges of the complete graph K(N) with N >= Bn vertices yields a monochromatic copy of any graph H that has n vertices and maximum degree Delta. We prove that the complete graph may be replaced by a sparser graph G that has N vertices and O(N(2-1/Delta)log(1/Delta)N) edges, with N = [B`n] for some constant B` that depends only on Delta. Consequently, the so-called size-Ramsey number of any H with n vertices and maximum degree Delta is O(n(2-1/Delta)log(1/Delta)n) Our approach is based on random graphs; in fact, we show that the classical Erdos-Renyi random graph with the numerical parameters above satisfies a stronger partition property with high probability, namely, that any 2-colouring of its edges contains a monochromatic universal graph for the class of graphs on n vertices and maximum degree Delta. The main tool in our proof is the regularity method, adapted to a suitable sparse setting. The novel ingredient developed here is an embedding strategy that allows one to embed bounded degree graphs of linear order in certain pseudorandom graphs. Crucial to our proof is the fact that regularity is typically inherited at a scale that is much finer than the scale at which it is assumed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Novel algorithms for electronic structure based molecular dynamics with linear system-size scaling

Die vorliegende Arbeit behandelt die Entwicklung und Verbesserung von linear skalierenden Algorithmen für Elektronenstruktur basierte Molekulardynamik. Molekulardynamik ist eine Methode zur Computersimulation des komplexen Zusammenspiels zwischen Atomen und Molekülen bei endlicher Temperatur. Ein entscheidender Vorteil dieser Methode ist ihre hohe Genauigkeit und Vorhersagekraft. Allerdings verhindert der Rechenaufwand, welcher grundsätzlich kubisch mit der Anzahl der Atome skaliert, die Anwendung auf große Systeme und lange Zeitskalen. Ausgehend von einem neuen Formalismus, basierend auf dem großkanonischen Potential und einer Faktorisierung der Dichtematrix, wird die Diagonalisierung der entsprechenden Hamiltonmatrix vermieden. Dieser nutzt aus, dass die Hamilton- und die Dichtematrix aufgrund von Lokalisierung dünn besetzt sind. Das reduziert den Rechenaufwand so, dass er linear mit der Systemgröße skaliert. Um seine Effizienz zu demonstrieren, wird der daraus entstehende Algorithmus auf ein System mit flüssigem Methan angewandt, das extremem Druck (etwa 100 GPa) und extremer Temperatur (2000 - 8000 K) ausgesetzt ist. In der Simulation dissoziiert Methan bei Temperaturen oberhalb von 4000 K. Die Bildung von sp²-gebundenem polymerischen Kohlenstoff wird beobachtet. Die Simulationen liefern keinen Hinweis auf die Entstehung von Diamant und wirken sich daher auf die bisherigen Planetenmodelle von Neptun und Uranus aus. Da das Umgehen der Diagonalisierung der Hamiltonmatrix die Inversion von Matrizen mit sich bringt, wird zusätzlich das Problem behandelt, eine (inverse) p-te Wurzel einer gegebenen Matrix zu berechnen. Dies resultiert in einer neuen Formel für symmetrisch positiv definite Matrizen. Sie verallgemeinert die Newton-Schulz Iteration, Altmans Formel für beschränkte und nicht singuläre Operatoren und Newtons Methode zur Berechnung von Nullstellen von Funktionen. Der Nachweis wird erbracht, dass die Konvergenzordnung immer mindestens quadratisch ist und adaptives Anpassen eines Parameters q in allen Fällen zu besseren Ergebnissen führt.

Watching subgraphs to improve efficiency in maximum clique search

This paper describes a new technique referred to as watched subgraphs which improves the performance of BBMC, a leading state of the art exact maximum clique solver (MCP). It is based on watched literals employed by modern SAT solvers for boolean constraint propagation. In efficient SAT algorithms, a list of clauses is kept for each literal (it is said that the clauses watch the literal) so that only those in the list are checked for constraint propagation when a (watched) literal is assigned during search. BBMC encodes vertex sets as bit strings, a bit block representing a subset of vertices (and the corresponding induced subgraph) the size of the CPU register word. The paper proposes to watch two subgraphs of critical sets during MCP search to efficiently compute a number of basic operations. Reported results validate the approach as the size and density of problem instances rise, while achieving comparable performance in the general case.

An integer-valued data envelopment analysis model with bounded outputs

Integer-valued data envelopment analysis (DEA) with alternative returns to scale technology has been introduced and developed recently by Kuosmanen and Kazemi Matin. The proportionality assumption of their introduced "natural augmentability" axiom in constant and nondecreasing returns to scale technologies makes it possible to achieve feasible decision-making units (DMUs) of arbitrary large size. In many real world applications it is not possible to achieve such production plans since some of the input and output variables are bounded above. In this paper, we extend the axiomatic foundation of integer-valuedDEAmodels for including bounded output variables. Some model variants are achieved by introducing a new axiom of "boundedness" over the selected output variables. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation is also introduced for computing efficiency scores in the associated production set. © 2011 The Authors. International Transactions in Operational Research © 2011 International Federation of Operational Research Societies.

On the size of the fibers of spectral maps induced by semialgebraic embeddings

Let S(M) be the ring of (continuous) semialgebraic functions on a semialgebraic set M and S*(M) its subring of bounded semialgebraic functions. In this work we compute the size of the fibers of the spectral maps Spec(j)1:Spec(S(N))→Spec(S(M)) and Spec(j)2:Spec(S*(N))→Spec(S*(M)) induced by the inclusion j:N M of a semialgebraic subset N of M. The ring S(M) can be understood as the localization of S*(M) at the multiplicative subset WM of those bounded semialgebraic functions on M with empty zero set. This provides a natural inclusion iM:Spec(S(M)) Spec(S*(M)) that reduces both problems above to an analysis of the fibers of the spectral map Spec(j)2:Spec(S*(N))→Spec(S*(M)). If we denote Z:=ClSpec(S*(M))(M N), it holds that the restriction map Spec(j)2|:Spec(S*(N)) Spec(j)2-1(Z)→Spec(S*(M)) Z is a homeomorphism. Our problem concentrates on the computation of the size of the fibers of Spec(j)2 at the points of Z. The size of the fibers of prime ideals "close" to the complement Y:=M N provides valuable information concerning how N is immersed inside M. If N is dense in M, the map Spec(j)2 is surjective and the generic fiber of a prime ideal p∈Z contains infinitely many elements. However, finite fibers may also appear and we provide a criterium to decide when the fiber Spec(j)2-1(p) is a finite set for p∈Z. If such is the case, our procedure allows us to compute the size s of Spec(j)2-1(p). If in addition N is locally compact and M is pure dimensional, s coincides with the number of minimal prime ideals contained in p. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.