Behavioral consistency, the homology assumption, and the problems of induction

The ultimate goal of profiling is to identify the major behavioral and personality characteristics to narrow the suspect pool. Inferences about offender characteristics can be accomplished deductively, based on the analysis of discrete offender behaviors established within a particular case. They can also be accomplished inductively, involving prediction based on abstract offender averages from group data (these methods and the logic on which they are based is detailed extensively in Chapters 2 and 4). As discussed, these two approaches are by no means equal.

CFD Analysis of two phase flow with a prediction of torque demand of a Bi-lobe rotor of a mixing chamber

An attempt to study the fluid dynamic behavior of two phase flow comprising of solid and liquid with nearly equal density in a geometrical case that has an industrial significance in theareas like processing of polymers, food, pharma ceutical, paints. In this work,crystalline silica is considered as the dispersed medium in glycerin. In the CFD analysis carried out,the two phase components are considered to be premixed homogeneously at the initial state. The flow in a cylinder that has an axially driven bi-lobe rotor, a typical blender used in polymer industry for mixing or kneading to render the multi-component mixture to homogeneous condition is considered. A viscous, incompressible, isothermal flow is considered with an assumption that the components do not undergo any physical change and the solids are rigid and mix in fully wetting conditions. Silica with a particle diameter of 0.4 mm is considered and flow is analyzed for different mixing fractions. An industry standard CFD code is used for solving 3D-RANS equations. As the outcome of the study the torque demand by the bi-lobe rotor for different mixture fractions which are estimated show a behavioral consistency to the expected physical phenomena occurring in the domain considered.

The enduring impact of transient emotions on decision making

People often do not realize they are being influenced by an incidental emotional state. As a result, decisions based on a fleeting incidental emotion can become the basis for future decisions and hence outlive the original cause for the behavior (i.e., the emotion itself). Using a sequence of ultimatum and dictator games, we provide empirical evidence for the enduring impact of transient emotions on economic decision making. Behavioral consistency and false consensus are presented as potential underlying processes. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responses of calves to acute stress: Individual consistency and relations between behavioral and physiological measures

The present study examined the consistency over time of individual differences in behavioral and physiological responsiveness of calves to intuitively alarming test situations as well as the relationships between behavioral and physiological measures. Twenty Holstein Friesian heifer calves were individually subjected to the same series of two behavioral and two hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis reactivity tests at 3, 13 and 26 weeks of age. Novel environment (open field, OF) and novel object (NO) tests involved measurement of behavioral, plasma cortisol and heart rate responses. Plasma ACTH and/or cortisol response profiles were determined after administration of exogenous CRH and ACTH, respectively, in the HPA axis reactivity tests. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to condense correlated measures within ages into principal components reflecting independent dimensions underlying the calves' reactivity. Cortisol responses to the OF and NO tests were positively associated with the latency to contact and negatively related to the time spent in contact with the NO. Individual differences in scores of a principal component summarizing this pattern of inter-correlations, as well as differences in separate measures of adrenocortical and behavioral reactivity in the OF and NO tests proved highly consistent over time. The cardiac response to confinement in a start box prior to the OF test was positively associated with the cortisol responses to the OF and NO tests at 26 weeks of age. HPA axis reactivity to ACTH or CRH was unrelated to adrenocortical and behavioral responses to novelty. These findings strongly suggest that the responsiveness of calves was mediated by stable individual characteristics. Correlated adrenocortical and behavioral responses to novelty may reflect underlying fearfulness, defining the individual's susceptibility to the elicitation of fear. Other independent characteristics mediating reactivity may include activity or coping style (related to locomotion) and underlying sociality (associated with vocalization). (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

Exploring the use of sensors to measure behavioral interactions: an experimental evaluation of using hand trajectories.

Humans appear to be sensitive to relative small changes in their surroundings. These changes are often initially perceived as irrelevant, but they can cause significant changes in behavior. However, how exactly people's behavior changes is often hard to quantify. A reliable and valid tool is needed in order to address such a question, ideally measuring an important point of interaction, such as the hand. Wearable-body-sensor systems can be used to obtain valuable, behavioral information. These systems are particularly useful for assessing functional interactions that occur between the endpoints of the upper limbs and our surroundings. A new method is explored that consists of computing hand position using a wearable sensor system and validating it against a gold standard reference measurement (optical tracking device). Initial outcomes related well to the gold standard measurements (r = 0.81) showing an acceptable average root mean square error of 0.09 meters. Subsequently, the use of this approach was further investigated by measuring differences in motor behavior, in response to a changing environment. Three subjects were asked to perform a water pouring task with three slightly different containers. Wavelet analysis was introduced to assess how motor consistency was affected by these small environmental changes. Results showed that the behavioral motor adjustments to a variable environment could be assessed by applying wavelet coherence techniques. Applying these procedures in everyday life, combined with correct research methodologies, can assist in quantifying how environmental changes can cause alterations in our motor behavior.

Temperament test for re-homed dogs validated through direct behavioral observation in shelter and home environment

This study was the first attempt to carry out a validation of a temperament test (TT) for shelter dogs that addressed the topics of inter- and intra-raters agreements, test-retest reliability, and validity. The TT consisted of 22 subtests. Each dog was approached and handled by an unfamiliar person and made to interact with a same- and an opposite-gender conspecific. Dogs were tested twice in the shelter and once in their new homes 4 months after adoption to evaluate consistency in behavioral assessment. Playfulness, trainability, problem solving abilities, food possessiveness, and reactivity to sudden stimuli were also evaluated. Testers scored dogs' responses in terms of confidence, fearfulness, and aggressiveness. Results highlighted strengths and limits of this TT that was devised to help shelter staff in matching dogs' personality and owners' expectations. Methodological constraints when working with sheltered dogs are unavoidable; however, the test proved to be overall feasible, reliable, and valid although further studies are needed to address the critical issues that emerged. © 2011 Elsevier Inc.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to nonrodent studies.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to non-rodent studies.

Reasons why dissatisfied customers exhibit behavioral loyalty

The development of supplier loyalty and its potential application to the business-to-business settings has not been widely explored. Day (1969) cautions that loyalty viewed in terms of purchase decisions may not distinguish between loyalty and spurious loyalty. This study follows the composite loyalty approach providing both behavioral aspects (purchase intentions) and attitudinal loyalty in order to fully explain the concept of supplier loyalty. This framework has not been previously applied in the B2B literature.The objective of this research is to identify reasons why B2B customers do not show consistency between attitudinal and behavioral loyalty and why dissatisfied customers do not switch suppliers. A survey was conducted during 2006 with a sample of executives from 240 SME companies in a large Asian city. A range of measures was obtained including attitudinal loyalty, behavioral loyalty, satisfaction and open ended responses on nature of current problems. Following Dick and Basu (1994), customers are classified into loyalty groups. Customers having high and low attitudinal loyalty are compared on satisfaction, switching attitudes and problems within the relationship. Constraints to switching by the dissatisfied customers are discussed. A profile of the "Spurious Loyal" customer is provided. This study seeks to better understand the nature of dissatisfaction and loyalty within these long term focal relationships.

Family Stability and Childhood Behavioral Outcomes: A Critical Review of the Literature

As the definition of what is considered a family changes in our society, the family unit itself continues to undergo changes. These changes can sometimes lead to decreased stability within the family unit. One of the greatest challenges facing those researching this phenomenon is the lack of consistency within the existing body of research surrounding what familial instability actually is (the definition). This critical review of the literature examines the current body of literature in order to identify what is known about family stability and its impact on adolescent behavior, as well as what gaps currently exist. This review focuses on definitions of family stability, current factors surrounding the stability of the family unit, and addresses the implications that the current body of literature presents.

Social and behavioral determinants of consistent condom use among female commercial sex workers (FCSWs) in Ghana

This study aims at investigating the social and behavioral predictors of consistent condom use among female commercial sex workers (FCSWs) in Ghana. Street commercial sex workers were interviewed in Accra, Kumasi and Techiman. Whereas respondents had attained certain accurate knowledge about HIV transmission routes, misconceptions were still commonly reported. The level of condom education was very low (14%), however consistent condom use (all the time) with clients was relatively high (49.6%), 38.89% reported using condom sometimes and 11.56% reported never using condoms. ^ 277 of the respondent ants did not use condoms all the time. 163 of them reported not using condoms due to refusal by their clients, the remaining 64 respondents did not even request their clients to use condom due to cultural perception of power, lack of authority and the fear of loosing clients. ^ Significant predictive factors associated with consistency of condom use among FCSWs in a multivariate analysis were; age, level of education, religion, and number of customers. Some of the major obstacles to condom use by the FCSWs were refusal by clients, availability of free condoms, trying to communicate trust to their clients, and the lack of empowerment to negotiate safer sex with clients. Some of the respondents may have developed a false sense of safety by subjectively assessing whether their clients were well and do not look sick, but they were unaware that HIV carriers may show no obvious symptoms of illness at all. ^ In summary, this study points to an urgent need for reestablishing effective prevention intervention and some insights of what is required of such program in Ghana. ^