Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strip Tillage Effects on Crop Production and Soil Erosion, 2002

Report produced by Iowa Departmment of Agriculture and Land Stewardship

Climatic conditions for crop production in Nordic countries

Selostus: Kasvintuotannon ilmasto-olosuhteet Pohjoismaissa

Quality of surface water related to land use: a case study in a catchment with small farms and intensive vegetable crop production in southern Brazil

Water degradation is strongly related to agricultural activity. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of land use and some environmental components on surface water quality in the Campestre catchment, located in Colombo, state of Parana, Brazil. Physical and chemical attributes were analyzed (total nitrogen, ammonium, nitrate, total phosphorus, electrical conductivity, pH, temperature, turbidity, total solids, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen). Monthly samples of the river water were taken over one year at eight monitoring sites, distributed over three sub-basins. Overall, water quality was worse in the sub-basin with a higher percentage of agriculture, and was also affected by a lower percentage of native forest and permanent preservation area, and a larger drainage area. Water quality was also negatively affected by the presence of agriculture in the riparian zone. In the summer season, probably due to higher rainfall and intensive soil use, a higher concentration of total nitrogen and particulate nitrogen was observed, as well as higher electrical conductivity, pH and turbidity. All attributes, except for total phosphorus, were in compliance with Brazilian Conama Resolution Nº 357/2005 for freshwater class 1. However, it should be noted that these results referred to the base flow and did not represent a discharge condition since most of the water samples were not collected at or near the rainfall event.

Implications of weeds of genus euphorbia for crop production: a review

The genus Euphorbia comprises about 2000 species ranging from annuals to trees, including C3, C4, and CAM species. Euphorbia species widely studied in agriculture includes E. antiquorum, E. carollata, E. dentata, E. dracunculoides, E. esula, E. geniculata, E. granulata, E. helioscopia, E. heterophylla, E. hierosolymitana, E. hirta, E. maculata, E. microphylla, E. nerifolia, E. piluifera, E. pulcherrima, E. royleana, E. supine, and E. thiamifolia. These species have been reported mainly in field crops/vegetables, orchards, pastures, and rangelands. Euphorbia plants may present allelopathic effect over desirable cereals, pulses, oilseeds, vegetables, forage plants, and nitrifying bacteria, posing a serious threat to livestock production on open range lands through the release of allelochemicals from roots, stems, leaves, and inflorescence in the rhizosphere. Leaves are reported to be more toxic than other plant parts. Competition of Euphorbia spp. against crop plants is the most important crop yield-limiting factor. The critical period for Euphorbia competition with crops is reported to take place between 17 to 70 days after emergence for most crops, depending on root development during the initial crop growth stage, crop height, tillering or branching capacity, whether weeds emerge at the same time as the crop or later after crop emergence; how quickly crop canopy develops and also on Euphorbia species. A yield reduction of 4-85% has been reported in field crops with different Euphorbia species and distinct occurrence densities. Euphorbia species decrease herbage production by 10 to 100% in pasture and rangelands, with many acting as natural insecticide, fungicide, nematidicide, immunopotentiator, or immunosuppressor.

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Efficient phosphorus application strategies for increased crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Comparable data are lacking from the range of environments found in sub-Saharan West Africa to draw more general conclusions about the relative merits of locally available rockphosphate (RockP) in alleviating phosphorus (P) constraints to crop growth. To fill this gap, a multi-factorial field experiment was conducted over 4 years at eight locations in Niger, Burkina Faso and Togo. These ranged in annual rainfall from 510 to 1300 mm. Crops grown were pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and maize (Zea mays L.) either continuously or in rotation with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Crops were subjected to six P fertiliser treatments comprising RockP and soluble P at different rates and combined with 0 and 60 kg N ha^-1. For legumes, time trend analyses showed P-induced total dry matter (TDM) increases between 28 and 72% only with groundnut. Similarly, rotation-induced raises in cereal TDM compared to cereal monoculture were only observed with groundnut. For cereals, at the same rate of application, RockP was comparable to single superphosphate (SSP) only at two millet sites with topsoil pH-KCl <4.2 and annual average rainfall >600 mm. Across the eight sites NPK placement at 0.4 g P per hill raised average cereal yields between 26 and 220%. This was confirmed in 119 on-farm trials revealing P placement as a promising strategy to overcome P deficiency as the regionally most growth limiting nutrient constraint to cereals.

Multi-site time-trend analysis of soil fertility management effects on crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Soil fertility constraints to crop production have been recognized widely as a major obstacle to food security and agro-ecosystem sustainability in sub-Saharan West Africa. As such, they have led to a multitude of research projects and policy debates on how best they should be overcome. Conclusions, based on long-term multi-site experiments, are lacking with respect to a regional assessment of phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizer effects, surface mulched crop residues, and legume rotations on total dry matter of cereals in this region. A mixed model time-trend analysis was used to investigate the effects of four nitrogen and phosphorus rates, annually applied crop residue dry matter at 500 and 2000 kg ha^-1, and cereal-legume rotation versus continuous cereal cropping on the total dry matter of cereals and legumes. The multi-factorial experiment was conducted over four years at eight locations, with annual rainfall ranging from 510 to 1300 mm, in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo. With the exception of phosphorus, treatment effects on legume growth were marginal. At most locations, except for typical Sudanian sites with very low base saturation and high rainfall, phosphorus effects on cereal total dry matter were much lower with rock phosphate than with soluble phosphorus, unless the rock phosphate was combined with an annual seed-placement of 4 kg ha^-1 phosphorus. Across all other treatments, nitrogen effects were negligible at 500 mm annual rainfall but at 900 mm, the highest nitrogen rate led to total dry matter increases of up to 77% and, at 1300 mm, to 183%. Mulch-induced increases in cereal total dry matter were larger with lower base saturation, reaching 45% on typical acid sandy Sahelian soils. Legume rotation effects tended to increase over time but were strongly species-dependent.

Farmers’ perspectives with regard to arable crop production and deagrarianisation: an analysis of Nkonkobe Municipality, South Africa

This exploratory study evaluated biophysical, cultural and socio-economic factors affecting crop production and land utilisation in the Nkonkobe Municipality, South Africa. The study sought to establish what farmers in the area perceive as serious threats to crop production, drivers for land abandonment, and how best current agricultural production could be intensified. The farmers’ perspectives were assessed through interviews using semi-structured and open-ended questionnaires. The results of the study revealed declining crop productivity and increase in land abandonment in the Municipality. The biophysical drivers of land abandonment were low and erratic rainfall and land degradation while the socio-economic drivers were labour shortages due to old age and youth movement to cities, lack of farming equipment and security concerns. The most abandoned crops were maize, sorghum and wheat. This trend was attributed to the labour intensiveness of cereal production and a shift in dietary preference to purchased rice. These findings should be factored in any programmes that seek to increase land utilisation and crop productivity in the Municipality.

Influence of pre-plant densities of Meloidogyne incognita on growth and root infestation of spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) (Amaranthaceae) – an important dimension towards enhancing crop production

Vegetables represent a main source of micro-nutrients which can improve the health status of malnourished poor in the world. Spinach (Spinacia oleracea L.) is a popular leafy vegetable in many countries which is rich with several important micro-nutrients. Thus, consuming Spinach helps to overcome micro-nutrient deficiencies. Pests and pathogens act as major yield constraints in food production. Root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne species, constitute a large group of highly destructive plant pests. Spinach is found to be highly susceptible for these nematode attacks. Though agricultural production has largely benefited from modern technologies and innovations, some important dimensions which can minimize the yield losses have been neglected by most of the growers. Pre-plant or initial nematode density in soil is a crucial biotic factor which is directly responsible for crop losses. Hence, information on preplant nematode densities and the corresponding damage is of vital importance to develop successful control procedures to enhance crop production. In the present study, effect of seven initial densities of M. incognita, i.e., 156, 312, 625, 1250, 2,500, 5,000 and 10,000 infective juveniles (IJs)/plant (equivalent to 1000cm3 soil) on the growth and root infestation on potted spinach plants was determined in a screen house. In order to ensure a high accuracy, root infestation was ascertained by the number of galls formed, the percentage galled-length of feeder roots and galled-feeder roots, and egg production, per plant. Fifty days post-inoculation, shoot length and weight, and root length were suppressed at the lowest IJs density. However, the pathogenic effect was pronounced at the highest density at which 43%, 46% and 45% reduction in shoot length and weight, and root length, respectively, was recorded. The highest reduction in root weight (26%) was detected at the second highest density. The Number of galls and percentage galled-length of feeder roots/per plant showed significant progressive increase across the increasing IJs density with the highest mean value of 432.3 and 54%, respectively. The two shoot growth parameters and root length showed significant inverse relationship with the increasing gall formation. Moreover, the shoot and root length were shown to be mutually dependent on each other. Suppression of shoot growth of spinach greatly affects the grower’s economy. Hence, control measures are essentially needed to ensure a better production of spinach via reducing the pre-plant density below the level of 0.156 IJs/cm3.

The role of uncomposted materials, composts, manures, and compost extracts in reducing pest and disease incidence and severity in sustainable temperate agricultural and horticultural crop production - A review

This review evaluates evidence of the impact of uncomposted plant residues, composts, manures, and liquid preparations made from composts (compost extracts and teas) on pest and disease incidence and severity in agricultural and horticultural crop production. Most reports on pest control using such organic amendments relate to tropical or and climates. The majority of recent work on the use of organic amendments for prevention and control of diseases relates to container-produced plants, particularly ornamentals. However, there is growing interest in the potential for using composts to prevent and control diseases in temperate agricultural and horticultural field crops and information concerning their use and effectiveness is slowly increasing. The impact of uncomposted plant residues, composts, manures, and compost extracts/teas on pests and diseases is discussed in relation to sustainable temperate field and protected cropping systems. The factors affecting efficacy or such organic amendments in preventing and controlling pests and disease are examined and the mechanisms through which control is achieved are described.

Intentions of UK farmers toward biofuel crop production: Implications for policy targets and land use change

The United States and the European Union have set targets for biofuel production to decrease reliance on fossil fuels and to reduce fossil carbon emissions. Attainment of biofuel targets d6pends upon policy and infrastructure development but also on production of suitable raw materials. Production of relevant crops relies on the decisions that farmers make in their economic and political environment. We need to identify any farmer-related barriers to biofuel production and to determine whether novel policy and technology are required to meet targets. These aspects of the emerging biofuel industry are relevant across international barriers and have notyet been addressed quantitatively. We describe a case study from the UK of farmers' intentions toward producing two biofuel crops for which refining capacity either exists or is under construction. Given farmers' intentions, current land use, and conversion efficiency, we estimate potential biofuel production. These estimates indicate that EU targets are not achievable using domestically grown raw materials without policy intervention, use of alternative feedstocks, and either significant improvements in processing efficiency or largescale changes in land use.