Cost dependent strategy for electricity markets bidding based on adaptive reinforcement learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players with strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible bids. These bids are defined accordingly to the cost function that each producer presents.

A framework for adaptive e-learning for continuum mechanics and structural analysis

This paper presents a project for providing the students of Structural Engineering with the flexibility to learn outside classroom schedules. The goal is a framework for adaptive E-learning based on a repository of open educational courseware with a set of basic Structural Engineering concepts and fundamentals. These are paramount for students to expand their technical knowledge and skills in structural analysis and design of tall buildings, arch-type structures as well as bridges. Thus, concepts related to structural behaviour such as linearity, compatibility, stiffness and influence lines have traditionally been elusive for students. The objective is to facilitate the student a teachinglearning process to acquire the necessary intuitive knowledge, cognitive skills and the basis for further technological modules and professional development in this area. As a side effect, the system is expected to help the students improve their preparation for exams on the subject. In this project, a web-based open-source system for studying influence lines on continuous beams is presented. It encompasses a collection of interactive user-friendly applications accessible via Web, written in JavaScript under JQuery and Dygraph Libraries, taking advantage of their efficiency and graphic capabilities. It is performed in both Spanish and English languages. The student is enabled to set the geometric, topologic, boundary and mechanic layout of a continuous beam. While changing the loading and the support conditions, the changes in the beam response prompt on the screen, so that the effects of the several issues involved in structural analysis become apparent. This open interaction with the user allows the student to simulate and virtually infer the structural response. Different levels of complexity can be handled, whereas an ongoing help is at hand for any of them. Students can freely boost their experiential learning on this subject at their own pace, in order to further share, process, generalize and apply the relevant essential concepts of Structural Engineering analysis. Besides, this collection is being added to the "Virtual Lab of Continuum Mechanics" of the UPM, launched in 2013 (http://serviciosgate.upm.es/laboratoriosvirtuales/laboratorios/medios-continuos-en-construcci%C3%B3n)

Prototyping Adaptive Online Learning Courses

This article describes the process of prototyping adaptive online learning using the authoring tool for developers, which is based on ontologies. The article also gives a brief overview of contemporary situation and describes modern trends of evolution e-learning courses and present standards in this area. It also describes architecture of system VITA II.

Adaptive E-learning Content Design and Delivery Based on Learning Styles and Knowledge Level

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): K.3.1, K.3.2.

An experimental study of adaptive behavior in an oligopolistic market game

We consider an oligopolistic market game, in which the players are competing firm in the same market of a homogeneous consumption good. The consumer side is represented by a fixed demand function. The firms decide how much to produce of a perishable consumption good, and they decide upon a number of information signals to be sent into the population in order to attract customers. Due to the minimal information provided, the players do not have a well--specified model of their environment. Our main objective is to characterize the adaptive behavior of the players in such a situation.

Short-term electricity demand and gas price forecasts using wavelet transforms and adaptive models

This paper presents some forecasting techniques for energy demand and price prediction, one day ahead. These techniques combine wavelet transform (WT) with fixed and adaptive machine learning/time series models (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial basis functions, linear regression, or GARCH). To create an adaptive model, we use an extended Kalman filter or particle filter to update the parameters continuously on the test set. The adaptive GARCH model is a new contribution, broadening the applicability of GARCH methods. We empirically compared two approaches of combining the WT with prediction models: multicomponent forecasts and direct forecasts. These techniques are applied to large sets of real data (both stationary and non-stationary) from the UK energy markets, so as to provide comparative results that are statistically stronger than those previously reported. The results showed that the forecasting accuracy is significantly improved by using the WT and adaptive models. The best models on the electricity demand/gas price forecast are the adaptive MLP/GARCH with the multicomponent forecast; their MSEs are 0.02314 and 0.15384 respectively.

Advanced Kernel Methods For Remote Sensing Image Classification

Résumé Suite aux recentes avancées technologiques, les archives d'images digitales ont connu une croissance qualitative et quantitative sans précédent. Malgré les énormes possibilités qu'elles offrent, ces avancées posent de nouvelles questions quant au traitement des masses de données saisies. Cette question est à la base de cette Thèse: les problèmes de traitement d'information digitale à très haute résolution spatiale et/ou spectrale y sont considérés en recourant à des approches d'apprentissage statistique, les méthodes à noyau. Cette Thèse étudie des problèmes de classification d'images, c'est à dire de catégorisation de pixels en un nombre réduit de classes refletant les propriétés spectrales et contextuelles des objets qu'elles représentent. L'accent est mis sur l'efficience des algorithmes, ainsi que sur leur simplicité, de manière à augmenter leur potentiel d'implementation pour les utilisateurs. De plus, le défi de cette Thèse est de rester proche des problèmes concrets des utilisateurs d'images satellite sans pour autant perdre de vue l'intéret des méthodes proposées pour le milieu du machine learning dont elles sont issues. En ce sens, ce travail joue la carte de la transdisciplinarité en maintenant un lien fort entre les deux sciences dans tous les développements proposés. Quatre modèles sont proposés: le premier répond au problème de la haute dimensionalité et de la redondance des données par un modèle optimisant les performances en classification en s'adaptant aux particularités de l'image. Ceci est rendu possible par un système de ranking des variables (les bandes) qui est optimisé en même temps que le modèle de base: ce faisant, seules les variables importantes pour résoudre le problème sont utilisées par le classifieur. Le manque d'information étiquétée et l'incertitude quant à sa pertinence pour le problème sont à la source des deux modèles suivants, basés respectivement sur l'apprentissage actif et les méthodes semi-supervisées: le premier permet d'améliorer la qualité d'un ensemble d'entraînement par interaction directe entre l'utilisateur et la machine, alors que le deuxième utilise les pixels non étiquetés pour améliorer la description des données disponibles et la robustesse du modèle. Enfin, le dernier modèle proposé considère la question plus théorique de la structure entre les outputs: l'intègration de cette source d'information, jusqu'à présent jamais considérée en télédétection, ouvre des nouveaux défis de recherche. Advanced kernel methods for remote sensing image classification Devis Tuia Institut de Géomatique et d'Analyse du Risque September 2009 Abstract The technical developments in recent years have brought the quantity and quality of digital information to an unprecedented level, as enormous archives of satellite images are available to the users. However, even if these advances open more and more possibilities in the use of digital imagery, they also rise several problems of storage and treatment. The latter is considered in this Thesis: the processing of very high spatial and spectral resolution images is treated with approaches based on data-driven algorithms relying on kernel methods. In particular, the problem of image classification, i.e. the categorization of the image's pixels into a reduced number of classes reflecting spectral and contextual properties, is studied through the different models presented. The accent is put on algorithmic efficiency and the simplicity of the approaches proposed, to avoid too complex models that would not be used by users. The major challenge of the Thesis is to remain close to concrete remote sensing problems, without losing the methodological interest from the machine learning viewpoint: in this sense, this work aims at building a bridge between the machine learning and remote sensing communities and all the models proposed have been developed keeping in mind the need for such a synergy. Four models are proposed: first, an adaptive model learning the relevant image features has been proposed to solve the problem of high dimensionality and collinearity of the image features. This model provides automatically an accurate classifier and a ranking of the relevance of the single features. The scarcity and unreliability of labeled. information were the common root of the second and third models proposed: when confronted to such problems, the user can either construct the labeled set iteratively by direct interaction with the machine or use the unlabeled data to increase robustness and quality of the description of data. Both solutions have been explored resulting into two methodological contributions, based respectively on active learning and semisupervised learning. Finally, the more theoretical issue of structured outputs has been considered in the last model, which, by integrating outputs similarity into a model, opens new challenges and opportunities for remote sensing image processing.

Signal processing in a loudspeaking telephone

One of the major problems associated with communication via a loudspeaking telephone (LST) is that, using analogue processing, duplex transmission is limited to low-loss lines and produces a low acoustic output. An architectural for an instrument has been developed and tested, which uses digital signal processing to provide duplex transmission between a LST and a telopnone handset over most of the B.T. network. Digital adaptive-filters are used in the duplex LST to cancel coupling between the loudspeaker and microphone, and across the transmit to receive paths of the 2-to-4-wire converter. Normal movement of a person in the acoustic path causes a loss of stability by increasing the level of coupling from the loudspeaker to the microphone, since there is a lag associated the adaptive filters learning about a non-stationary path, Control of the loop stability and the level of sidetone heard by the hadset user is by a microprocessoe, which continually monitors the system and regulates the gain. The result is a system which offers the best compromise available based on a set of measured parameters.A theory has been developed which gives the loop stability requirements based on the error between the parameters of the filter and those of the unknown path. The programme to develope a low-cost adaptive filter in LST produced a low-cost adaptive filter in LST produced a unique architecture which has a number of features not available in any similar system. These include automatic compensation for the rate of adaptation over a 36 dB range of output level, , 4 rates of adaptation (with a maximum of 465 dB/s), plus the ability to cascade up to 4 filters without loss o performance. A complex story has been developed to determine the adptation which can be achieved using finite-precision arithmatic. This enabled the development of an architecture which distributed the normalisation required to achieve optimum rate of adaptation over the useful input range. Comparison of theory and measurement for the adaptive filter show very close agreement. A single experimental LST was built and tested on connections to hanset telephones over the BT network. The LST demonstrated that duplex transmission was feasible using signal processing and produced a more comfortable means of communication beween people than methods emplying deep voice-switching to regulate the local-loop gain. Although, with the current level of processing power, it is not a panacea and attention must be directed toward the physical acoustic isolation between loudspeaker and microphone.

Dynamic Determination of Personalized Educational Paths

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2014

A multimedia indexing and retrieval framework for multimedia database systems

The main challenges of multimedia data retrieval lie in the effective mapping between low-level features and high-level concepts, and in the individual users' subjective perceptions of multimedia content. ^ The objectives of this dissertation are to develop an integrated multimedia indexing and retrieval framework with the aim to bridge the gap between semantic concepts and low-level features. To achieve this goal, a set of core techniques have been developed, including image segmentation, content-based image retrieval, object tracking, video indexing, and video event detection. These core techniques are integrated in a systematic way to enable the semantic search for images/videos, and can be tailored to solve the problems in other multimedia related domains. In image retrieval, two new methods of bridging the semantic gap are proposed: (1) for general content-based image retrieval, a stochastic mechanism is utilized to enable the long-term learning of high-level concepts from a set of training data, such as user access frequencies and access patterns of images. (2) In addition to whole-image retrieval, a novel multiple instance learning framework is proposed for object-based image retrieval, by which a user is allowed to more effectively search for images that contain multiple objects of interest. An enhanced image segmentation algorithm is developed to extract the object information from images. This segmentation algorithm is further used in video indexing and retrieval, by which a robust video shot/scene segmentation method is developed based on low-level visual feature comparison, object tracking, and audio analysis. Based on shot boundaries, a novel data mining framework is further proposed to detect events in soccer videos, while fully utilizing the multi-modality features and object information obtained through video shot/scene detection. ^ Another contribution of this dissertation is the potential of the above techniques to be tailored and applied to other multimedia applications. This is demonstrated by their utilization in traffic video surveillance applications. The enhanced image segmentation algorithm, coupled with an adaptive background learning algorithm, improves the performance of vehicle identification. A sophisticated object tracking algorithm is proposed to track individual vehicles, while the spatial and temporal relationships of vehicle objects are modeled by an abstract semantic model. ^

Development and testing of methodologies for the control and diagnosis of innovative combustion systems

In pursuit of aligning with the European Union's ambitious target of achieving a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, researchers, vehicle manufacturers, and original equipment manufacturers have been at the forefront of exploring cutting-edge technologies for internal combustion engines. The introduction of these technologies has significantly increased the effort required to calibrate the models implemented in the engine control units. Consequently the development of tools that reduce costs and the time required during the experimental phases, has become imperative. Additionally, to comply with ever-stricter limits on 〖"CO" 〗_"2" emissions, it is crucial to develop advanced control systems that enhance traditional engine management systems in order to reduce fuel consumption. Furthermore, the introduction of new homologation cycles, such as the real driving emissions cycle, compels manufacturers to bridge the gap between engine operation in laboratory tests and real-world conditions. Within this context, this thesis showcases the performance and cost benefits achievable through the implementation of an auto-adaptive closed-loop control system, leveraging in-cylinder pressure sensors in a heavy-duty diesel engine designed for mining applications. Additionally, the thesis explores the promising prospect of real-time self-adaptive machine learning models, particularly neural networks, to develop an automatic system, using in-cylinder pressure sensors for the precise calibration of the target combustion phase and optimal spark advance in a spark-ignition engines. To facilitate the application of these combustion process feedback-based algorithms in production applications, the thesis discusses the results obtained from the development of a cost-effective sensor for indirect cylinder pressure measurement. Finally, to ensure the quality control of the proposed affordable sensor, the thesis provides a comprehensive account of the design and validation process for a piezoelectric washer test system.

Constant-random practice and the adaptive process in motor learning with varying amounts of constant practice

The adaptive process in motor learning was examined in terms of effects of varying amounts of constant practice performed before random practice. Participants pressed five response keys sequentially, the last one coincident with the lighting of a final visual stimulus provided by a complex coincident timing apparatus. Different visual stimulus speeds were used during the random practice. 33 children (M age=11.6 yr.) were randomly assigned to one of three experimental groups: constant-random, constant-random 33%, and constant-random 66%. The constant-random group practiced constantly until they reached a criterion of performance stabilization three consecutive trials within 50 msec. of error. The other two groups had additional constant practice of 33 and 66%, respectively, of the number of trials needed to achieve the stabilization criterion. All three groups performed 36 trials under random practice; in the adaptation phase, they practiced at a different visual stimulus speed adopted in the stabilization phase. Global performance measures were absolute, constant, and variable errors, and movement pattern was analyzed by relative timing and overall movement time. There was no group difference in relation to global performance measures and overall movement time. However, differences between the groups were observed on movement pattern, since constant-random 66% group changed its relative timing performance in the adaptation phase.

Adaptive learning in multiagent systems: a forecasting methodology based on error analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simu-lator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM pro-vides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behaviour. This paper presents a method that aims to provide market players strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses an auxiliary forecasting tool, e.g. an Artificial Neural Net-work, to predict the electricity market prices, and analyses its forecasting error patterns. Through the recognition of such patterns occurrence, the method predicts the expected error for the next forecast, and uses it to adapt the actual forecast. The goal is to approximate the forecast to the real value, reducing the forecasting error.