Impacts of the Wenchuan Earthquake on the Giant Panda Nature Reserves in China

Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2008BAK47B02, 2008BAC44B04, 2008BAK50B06, 2008BAC43B01, 2006BAC08B06]

Analysis of the population capacity in the reconstruction areas of 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

National Key Technology R&D Program of China [2008BAK50B05]; Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX-YW-Q06, KZCX2-YW-Q03-06]

Finite element models of coseismic deformation due to the 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) and 2008 Wenchuan(China) earthquakes

The topic of my Ph.D. thesis is the finite element modeling of coseismic deformation imaged by DInSAR and GPS data. I developed a method to calculate synthetic Green functions with finite element models (FEMs) and then use linear inversion methods to determine the slip distribution on the fault plane. The method is applied to the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy) and to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (China). I focus on the influence of rheological features of the earth's crust by implementing seismic tomographic data and the influence of topography by implementing Digital Elevation Models (DEM) layers on the FEMs. Results for the L’Aquila earthquake highlight the non-negligible influence of the medium structure: homogeneous and heterogeneous models show discrepancies up to 20% in the fault slip distribution values. Furthermore, in the heterogeneous models a new area of slip appears above the hypocenter. Regarding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the very steep topographic relief of Longmen Shan Range is implemented in my FE model. A large number of DEM layers corresponding to East China is used to achieve the complete coverage of the FE model. My objective was to explore the influence of the topography on the retrieved coseismic slip distribution. The inversion results reveals significant differences between the flat and topographic model. Thus, the flat models frequently adopted are inappropriate to represent the earth surface topographic features and especially in the case of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

汶川8级地震前加卸载响应比的大尺度异常

孕震初期加卸载响应比(LURR)通常在1左右涨落,然后逐渐上升至峰值点。但强地震并不在峰值点上发生,而要滞后一段时间(T2)。T2与震级有关,震级越大,T2越长。对于8级地震,T2的计算值为28±8个月,汶川8级地震实际的T2是23个月。对于大地震,T2很长,峰值点后LURR通常迅速下降,在大地震前夕LURR常常降得很低,而预测的地震又迟迟没有发生,这种情况下很容易误导人们怀疑,甚至放弃原来的预测,殊不知,这时大地震正在迫近。这正是汶川8级地震给予人们血的教训。大地震不仅孕育时间长,孕震区面积也很大。大地震的前兆在时空上都是大尺度。基于这种认识,根据LURR的演化,中国大陆西南地区可能正在孕育一个特大地震。

Characteristic rainfall for warning of debris flows

A characteristic rainfall is introduced to overcome the difficulties encountered in determining a critical rainfall value for triggering debris flow. The characteristic value is defined as the rainfall at which debris-flow occurrence probability shows a rapid increase, and can be used as a warning rainfall threshold for debris flows. Investigation of recorded debris flows and 24-hour rainfall data at Jiangjia basin, Yunnan Province, in southwestern China, demonstrates the existence of such a characteristic rainfall. It was found that the characteristic rainfall corresponds to the daily rainfall of 90% cumulative probability by analyzing the basin's daily rainfall histogram. The result provides a simple and useful method for estimating a debris-flow warning rainfall threshold from the daily rainfall distribution. It was applied to estimate the debris-flow warning rainfall threshold for the Subaohe basin, a watershed in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake zone with many physical characteristics similar to those of the Jiangjia basin.

地震P-S波时差耦合作用的斜坡崩滑效应研究

China locates between the circum-Pacific and the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. The seismic activities in our country are very frequent and so are the collapses and slides of slope triggered by earthquakes. Many collapses and slides of slope take place mainly in the west of China with many earthquakes and mountains, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. When a strong earthquake happening, the damage especially in mountains area caused by geological hazards it triggered such as rock collapses, landslides and debris flows is heavier than that it caused directly. A conclusion which the number of lives lost caused by geological hazards triggered by a strong earthquake in mountains area often accounts for a half even more of the total one induced by the strong earthquake can be made by consulting the statistical loss of several representative earthquakes. As a result, geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes attract wide attention for their great costs. Based on field geological investigation, engineering geological exploration and material data analysis, chief conclusions have been drawn after systematic research on formation mechanism, key inducing factors, dynamic characteristics of geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes by means of engineering geomechanics comprehensive analysis, finite difference numerical simulation test, in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock, discrete element numerical simulation. Based on research on a great number of collapses and landslides triggered by Wenchuan and Xiaonanhai Earthquake, two-set methods, i.e. the method for original topography recovering based on factors such as lithology and elevation comparing and the method for reconstructing collapsing and sliding process of slope based on characteristics of seism tectonic zone, structural fissure, diameter spatial distribution of slope debris mass, propagation direction and mechanical property of seismic wave, have been gotten. What is more, types, formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of collapses and slides of slope induced by strong earthquakes are discussed comprehensively. Firstly, collapsed and slided accumulative mass is in a state of heavily even more broken. Secondly, dynamic process of slope collapsing and sliding consists of almost four stages, i.e. broken, thrown, crushed and river blocked. Thirdly, classified according to failure forms, there are usually four types which are made up of collapsing, land sliding, land sliding-debris flowing and vibrating liquefaction. Finally, as for key inducing factors in slope collapsing and sliding, they often include characteristics of seism tectonic belts, structure and construction of rock mass, terrain and physiognomy, weathering degree of rock mass and mechanical functions of seismic waves. Based on microscopic study on initial fracturing of slope caused by seismic effect, combined with two change trends which include ratio of vertical vs. horizontal peak ground acceleration corresponding to epicentral distance and enlarging effect of peak ground acceleration along slope, key inducing factor of initial slope fracturing in various area with different epicentral distance is obtained. In near-field area, i.e. epicentral distance being less than 30 km, tensile strength of rock mass is a key intrinsic factor inducing initial fracturing of slope undergoing seismic effect whereas shear strength of rock mass is the one when epicentral distance is more than 30 km. In the latter circumstance, research by means of finite difference numerical simulation test and in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock shows that initial fracture begins always in the place of slope shoulder. The fact that fracture strain and shear strength which are proportional to buried depth of rock mass in the place of slope shoulder are less than other place and peak ground acceleration is enlarged in the place causes prior failure at slope shoulder. Key extrinsic factors inducing dynamic fracture of slope at different distances to epicenter have been obtained through discrete element numerical simulation on the total process of collapsing and sliding of slope triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake. Research shows that combined action of P and S seismic waves is the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance less than 64 km to initial epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. What is more, vertical tensile action of P seismic wave plays a leading role near epicenter, whereas vertical shear action of S seismic wave plays a leading role gradually with epicentral distance increasing in this range. On the other hand, single action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance between 64 km and 216 km to initial epicenter. Horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor gradually from combined action between vertical and horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave with epicentral distance increasing in this distance range. In addition, initial failure triggered by strong earthquakes begins almost in the place of slope shoulder. However, initial failure beginning from toe of slope relates probably with gradient and rock occurrence. Finally, starting time of initial failure in slope increases usually with epicentral distance. It is perhaps that the starting time increasing is a result of attenuating of seismic wave from epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for us to construct towns and infrastructure in fragile geological environment along seism tectonic belts and conduct risk management on earthquake-triggered geological hazards by referring to above conclusions.

特大地震激发地球自由振荡的数值模拟研究

Large earthquakes, such as the Chile earthquake in 1960 and the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on Dec 26, 2004 in Indonesia, have generated the Earth’s free oscillations. The eigenfrequencies of the Earth’s free oscillations are closely related to the Earth’s internal structures. The conventional methods, which mainly focus on calculating the eigenfrequecies by analytical ways, and the analysis on observations can not easily study the whole processes from earthquake occurrence to the Earth’s free oscillation inspired. Therefore, we try to use numerical method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing to study on the Earth’s free oscillations excited by giant earthquakes. We first give a review of researches and developments of the Earth’s free oscillation, and basical theories under spherical coordinate system. We then give a review of the numerical simulation of seismic wave propagation and basical theories of spectral element method to simulate global seismic wave propagation. As a first step to study the Earth’s free oscillations, we use a finite element method to simulate the propagation of elastic waves and the generation of oscillations of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng, by striking different parts of the bell, which possesses the oval crosssection. The bronze chime bells of Marquis Yi of Zeng are precious cultural relics of China. The bells have a two-tone acoustic characteristic, i.e., striking different parts of the bell generates different tones. By analysis of the vibration in the bell and the spectrum analysis, we further help the understanding of the mechanism of two-tone acoustic characteristics of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng. The preliminary calculations have clearly shown that two different modes of oscillation can be generated by striking different parts of the bell, and indicate that finite element numerical simulation of the processes of wave propagation and two-tone generation of the chime bell of Marquis Yi of Zeng is feasible. These analyses provide a new quantitative and visual way to explain the mystery of the two-tone acoustic characteristics. The method suggested by this study can be applied to simulate free oscillations excited by great earthquakes with complex Earth structure. Taking into account of such large-scale structure of the Earth, small-scale low-precision numerical simulation can not simply meet the requirement. The increasing capacity in high-performance parallel computing and progress on fully numerical solutions for seismic wave fields in realistic three-dimensional spherical models, Spectral element method and high-performance parallel computing were incorporated to simulate the seismic wave propagation processes in the Earth’s interior, without the effects of the Earth’s gravitational potential. The numerical simulation shows that, the results of the toroidal modes of our calculation agree well with the theoretical values, although the accuracy of our results is much limited, the calculated peaks are little distorted due to three-dimensional effects. There exist much great differences between our calculated values of spheroidal modes and theoretical values, because we don’t consider the effect the Earth’ gravitation in numerical model, which leads our values are smaller than the theoretical values. When , is much smaller, the effect of the Earth’s gravitation make the periods of spheroidal modes become shorter. However, we now can not consider effects of the Earth’s gravitational potential into the numerical model to simulate the spheroidal oscillations, but those results still demonstrate that, the numerical simulation of the Earth’s free oscillation is very feasible. We make the numerical simulation on processes of the Earth’s free oscillations under spherically symmetric Earth model using different special source mechanisms. The results quantitatively show that Earth’s free oscillations excited by different earthquakes are different, and oscillations at different locations are different for free oscillation excited by the same earthquake. We also explore how the Earth’s medium attenuation will take effects on the Earth’s free oscillations, and take comparisons with the observations. The medium attenuation can make influences on the Earth’s free oscillations, though the effects on lower-frequency fundamental oscillations are weak. At last, taking 2008 Wenchuan earthquake for example, we employ spectral element method incorporated with large-scale parallel computing technology to investigate the characteristics of seismic wave propagation excited by Wenchuan earthquake. We calculate synthetic seismograms with one-point source model and three-point source model respectively. Full 3-D visualization of the numerical results displays the profile of the seismic wave propagation with respect to time. The three-point source, which was proposed by the latest investigations through field observation and reverse estimation, can better demonstrate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the source rupture processes than one-point source. Primary results show that those synthetic signals calculated from three-point source agree well with the observations. This can further reveal that the source rupturing process of Wenchuan earthquake is a multi-rupture process, which is composed by at least three or more stages of rupture processes. In conclusion, the numerical simulation can not only solve some problems concluding the Earth’s ellipticity and anisotropy, which can be easily solved by conventional methods, but also finally solve the problems concluding topography model and lateral heterogeneity. We will try to find a way to fully implement self-gravitation in spectral element method in future, and do our best to continue researching the Earth’s free oscillations using the numerical simulations to see how the Earth’ lateral heterogeneous will affect the Earth’s free oscillations. These will make it possible to bring modal spectral data increasingly to bear on furthering our understanding of the Earth’s three-dimensional structure.

汶川地震后青少年创伤后应激障碍症状及其相关因素研究

The present paper studies focus on the symptoms of the post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents post-disaster. 482 students from 6 secondary schools and 17 primary schools in the extremely severe disaster areas in Mianzhu, Sichuan province and 785 students from 3 primary schools and 9 secondary schools in the severe disaster areas in Baoji, Shaanxi respectively were surveyed on the symptoms of the post-traumatic stress disorder and the extent of disaster exposure after the Wenchuan earthquake. Self-compiled background information questionnaire and CRIES were used for the investigation. In this study, we contrast the extent of disaster exposure in the two areas in order to explore the related factors about the post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescent post-disaster. The main results of this paper can be summarized as follows： 1. There are significant positive corrections between the post-traumatic stress disorder and the extent of disaster exposure(get trapped in the earthquake、relatives and friends have been injured in the earthquake、look at relatives and friends dying in the earthquake).The more exposed in the disaster, the more serious symptom of the post-traumatic stress disorder. The trauma exposure indicators (get trapped in the earthquake, relatives and friends have been injured in the earthquake、look at relatives and friends dying in the earthquake)were all significant predictors for PTSD severity. 2. There are significant sex difference in the extent（F=8.750, p <0.05） and the incidence rate of PTSD（χ =20.735, df=5,p =0.001）, the extent and the incidence rate of girls in Mianzhu is significantly higher than that of boys. 3. The age is also an influence factor of PTSD. The extent （F=7.246, p <0.001）and the incidence rate （χ =20.735, df=5,p =0.001）of PTSD get higher as adolescent in Mianzhu get older. 4. As the extremely severe disaster areas, the extent of disaster exposure of Mianzhu areas significantly higher than that of the severe disaster areas Baoji. However, there are not difference in the extent of PTSD between two areas（t=0.181，df=1265,p=0.857）, there are only significant difference in the incidence rate of PTSD between two areas（χ =8.766，df=1,p=0.003）, the incidence rate of PTSD in Mianzhu areas significantly higher than that of Baoji areas.

A Decentralized Iron Cage: Do Chinese Local Officials Comply with the Central Government?

This paper contributes to the literature in nancial aid and authoritarian institutions.

For a long time, scholars are debating whether nancial aid is able to facilitate

development and governance. Though abundant evidence is provided, the answer is

still inconclusive. On the other hand, scholars investigating China argue that the

leadership uses various institutions to ensure local ocials' compliance. In this paper,

we nd that the nancial aid does not bring a positive impact and the central

government in China does not have enough monitoring capacity to force local o-

cials to comply. We study a redevelopment program established by Chinese central

government after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. By adopting a geographic regression

discontinuity combining with a dierence-in-dierences design, we show that

the redevelopment program does not signicantly develop the disaster area. On the

contrary, the evidence implies that the economy in the disaster area is worse after

receiving the aid. The results imply that local ocials do not follow the central government's

regulations and misuse the aid money for other purposes. In the future, we

expect to further investigate through which mechanism do local ocials undermine

the existing institutions.

iii

Local and global responses to disaster: #eqnz and the Christchurch earthquake

Building on innovative frameworks for analysing and visualising the tweet data available from Twitter, developed by the authors, this paper examines the patterns of tweeting activity that occurred during and after the Feb, 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Local and global responses to the disaster were organised around the pre-existing hashtag #eqnz, which averaged some 100 tweets per minute in the hours following the earthquake. The paper identifies the key contributors to the #eqnz network and shows the key themes of their messages. Emerging from this analysis is a more detailed understanding of Twitter and other social media as key elements in the overall ecology of the media forms used for crisis communication. Such uses point both to the importance of social media as a tool for affected communities to self-organise their disaster response and recovery activities, and as a tool for emergency management services to disseminate key information and receive updates from local communities.