Entre mapas e moças do tempo: informação e entretenimento na meteorologia do Jornal Nacional e do Rural Notícias

Este trabalho é um estudo sobre a mistura que se estabelece entre informação meteorológica e entretenimento nos quadros da previsão do tempo de dois telejornais nacionais das Organizações Globo: Jornal Nacional JN (canal aberto Rede Globo) e Rural Notícias RN (canal fechado Canal Rural). A recepção dos programas sobre o tempo é analisada a partir de entrevistas abertas, com 40 espectadores de ambos os noticiários, habitantes da cidade e do campo. Também por meio de entrevistas, são avaliadas as representações da produção, privilegiando as denominadas moças do tempo, Flávia Freire (JN) e Lilian Lima (RN). Auxiliam na identificação do entretenimento, nos espaços da meteorologia, a observação do surgimento do consumidor moderno, a extensão do consumo ao lazer, o divertimento pela televisão, o tempo como assunto para conversa, as representações do corpo na cultura brasileira e traços da educação na transmissão meteorológica no Telejornalismo do país. Assim, são analisados os formatos dos quadros do tempo, suas funções aparentes, formatações, imagem corporal construída de suas apresentadoras e o público-alvo de cada telejornal. Esses principais pontos são relacionados com o pensamento de autores que estudam comunicação, tempo, hedonismo, utilitarismo, consumo, representações sociais, corpo, educação e pedagogia. A previsão da meteorologia aparece com várias funções, sendo dominantes a ênfase no cotidiano, em ambos os jornais; o foco no lazer, sobretudo no Jornal Nacional; e o destaque para o vínculo com a produção rural em sentido amplo, no caso do Rural Notícias.

Megnin re-analysed: the case of the newborn baby girl, Paris, 1878

This paper analyses acarological evidence from a 130-year-old forensic investigation. It was the first case in forensic acarology, i.e., the first case where mites provided substantial information to estimate the post-mortem interval (PMI). In 1878, the mites found in the mummified body of a newborn baby girl in Paris, France, were studied by acarologist and forensic entomologist Jean Pierre M,gnin. M,gnin estimated around 2.4 million mites in the skull and identified them as Tyroglyphus longior (Gervais), a junior synonym of Tyrophagus longior. He suggested that the arrival of these mites at the corpse would have occurred by phoresy on carrier insects, roughly 5 months before the autopsy. There is no doubt about the identification of the mites, M,gnin was a highly respected acarologist. However, two main factors affecting the biology of Tyrophagus mites were not included in the original analysis. First, M,gnin stated that the mites were phoretic. However, he probably did not have access to information about the natural history of the species, because as a rule Tyrophagus mites are non-phoretic. Considering the omnipresence of Tyrophagus mites in soil, most likely the mites will have arrived almost immediately after death. Second, temperature was not taken into account during the estimations of the mite population growth rate. The new analysis is based on current knowledge of Tyrophagus biology and includes temperature, estimated following a handful of weather reports of the years 1877 and 1878. The new projections indicate that non-phoretic mites may have colonised the body just after death and the colony would have built up over 8 months, contrary to the 5 months proposed by M,gnin. This new lapse of time agrees with the PMI proposed by Brouardel: on 15 January 1878 he postulated the death of the newborn to have occurred some 8 months before the autopsy.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Cross-correlations between weather variables in Australia

The information on climate variations is essential for the research of many subjects, such as the performance of buildings and agricultural production. However, recorded meteorological data are often incomplete. There may be a limited number of locations recorded, while the number of recorded climatic variables and the time intervals can also be inadequate. Therefore, the hourly data of key weather parameters as required by many building simulation programmes are typically not readily available. To overcome this gap in measured information, several empirical methods and weather data generators have been developed. They generally employ statistical analysis techniques to model the variations of individual climatic variables, while the possible interactions between different weather parameters are largely ignored. Based on a statistical analysis of 10 years historical hourly climatic data over all capital cities in Australia, this paper reports on the finding of strong correlations between several specific weather variables. It is found that there are strong linear correlations between the hourly variations of global solar irradiation (GSI) and dry bulb temperature (DBT), and between the hourly variations of DBT and relative humidity (RH). With an increase in GSI, DBT would generally increase, while the RH tends to decrease. However, no such a clear correlation can be found between the DBT and atmospheric pressure (P), and between the DBT and wind speed. These findings will be useful for the research and practice in building performance simulation.

A Method of Preparing Future Hourly Weather Data for the Study of Global Warming Impact on the Built Environment

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of global warming on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since all building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. Based on a review of the existing weather data generation models, this paper presents an effective method to generate approximate future hourly weather data suitable for the study of the impact of global warming. Depending on the level of information available for the prediction of future weather condition, it is shown that either the method of retaining to current level, constant offset method or diurnal modelling method may be used to generate the future hourly variation of an individual weather parameter. An example of the application of this method to the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. Since there is no reliable projection of possible change in air humidity, solar radiation or wind characters, as a first approximation, these parameters have been assumed to remain at the current level. A sensitivity test of their impact on the building energy performance shows that there is generally a good linear relationship between building cooling load and the changes of weather variables of solar radiation, relative humidity or wind speed.

"Okay girl, it's up to you": a case study of the use of a seizure alert dog to improve the wellbeing of a student with epilepsy

The relationship between student well-being and the other vital outcomes of school is unequivocal. Improved outcomes in all aspects of student well-being are positively associated with improved outcomes in all other aspects of schooling. This educational imperative only serves to strengthen and support the moral imperative for schools and schooling to be inclusive, supportive and nurturing in order to maintain and support student well-being. (Fraillon 2005, p. 12)

Girl in the Shadows and resilience and coping strategies in contemporary young adult fiction

The novel manuscript Girl in the Shadows tells the story of two teenage girls whose friendship, safety and sanity are pushed to the limits when an unexplained phenomenon invades their lives. Sixteen-year-old Tash has everything a teenage girl could want: good looks, brains and freedom from her busy parents. But when she looks into her mirror, a stranger’s face stares back at her. Her best friend Mal believes it’s an evil spirit and enters the world of the supernatural to find answers. But spell books and ouija boards cannot fix a problem that comes from deep within the soul. It will take a journey to the edge of madness for Tash to face the truth inside her heart and see the evil that lurks in her home. And Mal’s love and courage to pull her back into life. The exegesis examines resilience and coping strategies in adolescence, in particular, the relationship of trauma to brain development in children and teenagers. It draws on recent discoveries in neuroscience and psychology to provide a framework to examine the role of coping strategies in building resilience. Within this broader context, it analyses two works of contemporary young adult fiction, Freaky Green Eyes by Joyce Carol Oates and Sonya Hartnett’s Surrender, their use of the split persona as a coping mechanism within young adult fiction and the potential of young adult literature as a tool to help build resilience in teen readers.

Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.

Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings

The dynamic interaction between building systems and external climate is extremely complex, involving a large number of difficult-to-predict variables. In order to study the impact of climate change on the built environment, the use of building simulation techniques together with forecast weather data are often necessary. Since most of building simulation programs require hourly meteorological input data for their thermal comfort and energy evaluation, the provision of suitable weather data becomes critical. In this paper, the methods used to prepare future weather data for the study of the impact of climate change are reviewed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. The inherent relationship between these methods is also illustrated. Based on these discussions and the analysis of Australian historic climatic data, an effective framework and procedure to generate future hourly weather data is presented. It is shown that this method is not only able to deal with different levels of available information regarding the climate change, but also can retain the key characters of a “typical” year weather data for a desired period.

Distribution profiles of key weather variables in Australian capital cities : implications for energy efficient building design

Local climate is a critical element in the design of energy efficient buildings. In this paper, ten years of historical weather data in Australia's eight capital cities were profiled and analysed to characterize the variations of climatic variables in Australia. The method of descriptive statistics was employed. Either the pattern of cumulative distribution and/or the profile of percentage distribution are presented. It was found that although weather variables vary with different locations, there is often a good, nearly linear relation between a weather variable and its cumulative percentage for the majority of middle part of the cumulative curves. By comparing the slopes of these distribution profiles, it may be possible to determine the relative range of changes of the particular weather variables for a given city. The implications of these distribution profiles of key weather variables on energy efficient building design are also discussed.

Estimation of WGEN Weather Generation Parameters in Arid Climates

This research discusses some of the issues encountered while developing a set of WGEN parameters for Chile and advice for others interested in developing WGEN parameters for arid climates. The WGEN program is a commonly used and a valuable research tool; however, it has specific limitations in arid climates that need careful consideration. These limitations are analysed in the context of generating a set of WGEN parameters for Chile. Fourteen to 26 years of precipitation data are used to calculate precipitation parameters for 18 locations in Chile, and 3–8 years of temperature and solar radiation data are analysed to generate parameters for seven of these locations. Results indicate that weather generation parameters in arid regions are sensitive to erroneous or missing precipitation data. Research shows that the WGEN-estimated gamma distribution shape parameter (α) for daily precipitation in arid zones will tend to cluster around discrete values of 0 or 1, masking the high sensitivity of these parameters to additional data. Rather than focus on the length in years when assessing the adequacy of a data record for estimation of precipitation parameters, researchers should focus on the number of wet days in dry months in a data set. Analysis of the WGEN routines for the estimation of temperature and solar radiation parameters indicates that errors can occur when individual ‘months’ have fewer than two wet days in the data set. Recommendations are provided to improve methods for estimation of WGEN parameters in arid climates.