Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

Vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete columns subjected to vehicular impacts

Columns are one of the key load bearing elements that are highly susceptible to vehicle impacts. The resulting severe damages to columns may leads to failures of the supporting structure that are catastrophic in nature. However, the columns in existing structures are seldom designed for impact due to inadequacies of design guidelines. The impact behaviour of columns designed for gravity loads and actions other than impact is, therefore, of an interest. A comprehensive investigation is conducted on reinforced concrete column with a particular focus on investigating the vulnerability of the exposed columns and to implement mitigation techniques under low to medium velocity car and truck impacts. The investigation is based on non-linear explicit computer simulations of impacted columns followed by a comprehensive validation process. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full scale vehicle impact tests. A material model capable of simulating triaxial loading conditions is used in the analyses. Circular columns adequate in capacity for five to twenty story buildings, designed according to Australian standards are considered in the investigation. The crucial parameters associated with the routine column designs and the different load combinations applied at the serviceability stage on the typical columns are considered in detail. Axially loaded columns are examined at the initial stage and the investigation is extended to analyse the impact behaviour under single axis bending and biaxial bending. The impact capacity reduction under varying axial loads is also investigated. Effects of the various load combinations are quantified and residual capacity of the impacted columns based on the status of the damage and mitigation techniques are also presented. In addition, the contribution of the individual parameter to the failure load is scrutinized and analytical equations are developed to identify the critical impulses in terms of the geometrical and material properties of the impacted column. In particular, an innovative technique was developed and introduced to improve the accuracy of the equations where the other techniques are failed due to the shape of the error distribution. Above all, the equations can be used to quantify the critical impulse for three consecutive points (load combinations) located on the interaction diagram for one particular column. Consequently, linear interpolation can be used to quantify the critical impulse for the loading points that are located in-between on the interaction diagram. Having provided a known force and impulse pair for an average impact duration, this method can be extended to assess the vulnerability of columns for a general vehicle population based on an analytical method that can be used to quantify the critical peak forces under different impact durations. Therefore the contribution of this research is not only limited to produce simplified yet rational design guidelines and equations, but also provides a comprehensive solution to quantify the impact capacity while delivering new insight to the scientific community for dealing with impacts.

Blast response and vulnerability assessment of piled foundations

This research treated the response of pile foundations to blast loads. The influence of important parameters was investigated. The research techniques and the results will enable safer design of pile foundations that are vulnerable to blast loads.

Challenges in vulnerability assessment of forests under climate change

Forest-management goals in the context of climate change are to reduce the adverse impact of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystem services and carbon stocks. For developing an effective adaptation strategy, knowledge on nature and sources of vulnerability of forests is necessary to conserve or enhance carbon sinks. However, assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems is a challenging task, as the mechanisms that determine vulnerability cannot be observed directly. In this article, we list the challenges in forest vulnerability assessments and propose an assessment of inherent vulnerability by using process-based indicators under the current climate. We also suggest periodic assessment of vulnerability, which is necessary to review adaptation strategies for the management of forests and forest carbon stocks.

Multi-scale vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning

Vulnerability of communities and natural ecosystems, to potential impacts of climate change in developing countries like India, and the need for adaptation are rapidly emerging as central issues in the debate around policy responses to climate change. The present study presents an approach to identify and prioritize the most vulnerable districts, villages and households in Karnataka State, through a multi-scale assessment of inherent vulnerability to current climate variability. It also identifies the drivers of inherent vulnerability, thereby providing a tool for developing and mainstreaming adaptation strategies, in ongoing developmental or dedicated adaptation programmes. The multi-scale assessment was made for all 30 districts at the state level in Karnataka, about 1220 villages in Chikballapur district, and at the household level for two villages - Gundlapalli and Saddapalli - in Bagepalli taluk of Chikballapur district. At the district, village and household levels, low levels of education and skills are the dominant factors contributing to vulnerability. At the village and household level, the lack of income diversification and livelihood support institutions are key drivers of vulnerability. The approach of multi-scale vulnerability assessment facilitates identification and prioritization of the drivers of vulnerability at different scales, to focus adaptation interventions to address these drivers.

Vulnerability assessment of buildings subject to tunnel-induced settlements: the influence of orientation and position of the building

The assessment of settlement induced damage on buildings during the preliminary phase of tunnel excavation projects, is nowadays receiving greater attention. Analyses at different levels of detail are performed on the surface building in proximity to the tunnel, to evaluate the risk of structural damage and the need of mitigation measures. In this paper, the possibility to define a correlation between the main parameters that influence the structural response to settlement and the potential damage is investigated through numerical analysis. The adopted 3D finite element model allows to take into account important features that are neglected in more simplified approaches, like the soil-structure interaction, the nonlinear behaviour of the building, the three dimensional effect of the tunnelling induced settlement trough and the influence of openings in the structure. Aim of this approach is the development of an improved classification system taking into account the intrinsic vulnerability of the structure, which could have a relevant effect on the final damage assessment. Parametric analyses are performed, focusing on the effect of the orientation and the position of the structure with respect to the tunnel. The obtained results in terms of damage are compared with the Building Risk Assessment (BRA) procedure. This method was developed by Geodata Engineering (GDE) on the basis of empirical observations and building monitoring and applied during the construction of different metro lines in urban environment. The comparison shows a substantial agreement between the two procedures on the influence of the analysed parameters. The finite element analyses suggest a refinement of the BRA procedure for pure sagging conditions.

Robust food supply supply chains:An integrated framework for vulnerability assessment and disturbance management

The operation of supply chains (SCs) has for many years been focused on efficiency, leanness and responsiveness. This has resulted in reduced slack in operations, compressed cycle times, increased productivity and minimised inventory levels along the SC. Combined with tight tolerance settings for the realisation of logistics and production processes, this has led to SC performances that are frequently not robust. SCs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disturbances, which can decrease the competitive power of the entire chain in the market. Moreover, in the case of food SCs non-robust performances may ultimately result in empty shelves in grocery stores and supermarkets.
The overall objective of this research is to contribute to Supply Chain Management (SCM) theory by developing a structured approach to assess SC vulnerability, so that robust performances of food SCs can be assured. We also aim to help companies in the food industry to evaluate their current state of vulnerability, and to improve their performance robustness through a better understanding of vulnerability issues. The following research questions (RQs) stem from these objectives:
RQ1: What are the main research challenges related to (food) SC robustness?
RQ2: What are the main elements that have to be considered in the design of robust SCs and what are the relationships between these elements?
RQ3: What is the relationship between the contextual factors of food SCs and the use of disturbance management principles?
RQ4: How to systematically assess the impact of disturbances in (food) SC processes on the robustness of (food) SC performances?
To answer these RQs we used different methodologies, both qualitative and quantitative. For each question, we conducted a literature survey to identify gaps in existing research and define the state of the art of knowledge on the related topics. For the second and third RQ, we conducted both exploration and testing on selected case studies. Finally, to obtain more detailed answers to the fourth question, we used simulation modelling and scenario analysis for vulnerability assessment.
Main findings are summarised as follows.
Based on an extensive literature review, we answered RQ1. The main research challenges were related to the need to define SC robustness more precisely, to identify and classify disturbances and their causes in the context of the specific characteristics of SCs and to make a systematic overview of (re)design strategies that may improve SC robustness. Also, we found that it is useful to be able to discriminate between varying degrees of SC vulnerability and to find a measure that quantifies the extent to which a company or SC shows robust performances when exposed to disturbances.
To address RQ2, we define SC robustness as the degree to which a SC shows an acceptable performance in (each of) its Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) during and after an unexpected event that caused a disturbance in one or more logistics processes. Based on the SCM literature we identified the main elements needed to achieve robust performances and structured them together to form a conceptual framework for the design of robust SCs. We then explained the logic of the framework and elaborate on each of its main elements: the SC scenario, SC disturbances, SC performance, sources of food SC vulnerability, and redesign principles and strategies.
Based on three case studies, we answered RQ3. Our major findings show that the contextual factors have a consistent relationship to Disturbance Management Principles (DMPs). The product and SC environment characteristics are contextual factors that are hard to change and these characteristics initiate the use of specific DMPs as well as constrain the use of potential response actions. The process and the SC network characteristics are contextual factors that are easier to change, and they are affected by the use of the DMPs. We also found a notable relationship between the type of DMP likely to be used and the particular combination of contextual factors present in the observed SC.
To address RQ4, we presented a new method for vulnerability assessments, the VULA method. The VULA method helps to identify how much a company is underperforming on a specific Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the case of a disturbance, how often this would happen and how long it would last. It ultimately informs the decision maker about whether process redesign is needed and what kind of redesign strategies should be used in order to increase the SC’s robustness. The VULA method is demonstrated in the context of a meat SC using discrete-event simulation. The case findings show that performance robustness can be assessed for any KPI using the VULA method.
To sum-up the project, all findings were incorporated within an integrated framework for designing robust SCs. The integrated framework consists of the following steps: 1) Description of the SC scenario and identification of its specific contextual factors; 2) Identification of disturbances that may affect KPIs; 3) Definition of the relevant KPIs and identification of the main disturbances through assessment of the SC performance robustness (i.e. application of the VULA method); 4) Identification of the sources of vulnerability that may (strongly) affect the robustness of performances and eventually increase the vulnerability of the SC; 5) Identification of appropriate preventive or disturbance impact reductive redesign strategies; 6) Alteration of SC scenario elements as required by the selected redesign strategies and repeat VULA method for KPIs, as defined in Step 3.
Contributions of this research are listed as follows. First, we have identified emerging research areas - SC robustness, and its counterpart, vulnerability. Second, we have developed a definition of SC robustness, operationalized it, and identified and structured the relevant elements for the design of robust SCs in the form of a research framework. With this research framework, we contribute to a better understanding of the concepts of vulnerability and robustness and related issues in food SCs. Third, we identified the relationship between contextual factors of food SCs and specific DMPs used to maintain robust SC performances: characteristics of the product and the SC environment influence the selection and use of DMPs; processes and SC networks are influenced by DMPs. Fourth, we developed specific metrics for vulnerability assessments, which serve as a basis of a VULA method. The VULA method investigates different measures of the variability of both the duration of impacts from disturbances and the fluctuations in their magnitude.
With this project, we also hope to have delivered practical insights into food SC vulnerability. First, the integrated framework for the design of robust SCs can be used to guide food companies in successful disturbance management. Second, empirical findings from case studies lead to the identification of changeable characteristics of SCs that can serve as a basis for assessing where to focus efforts to manage disturbances. Third, the VULA method can help top management to get more reliable information about the “health” of the company.
The two most important research opportunities are: First, there is a need to extend and validate our findings related to the research framework and contextual factors through further case studies related to other types of (food) products and other types of SCs. Second, there is a need to further develop and test the VULA method, e.g.: to use other indicators and statistical measures for disturbance detection and SC improvement; to define the most appropriate KPI to represent the robustness of a complete SC. We hope this thesis invites other researchers to pick up these challenges and help us further improve the robustness of (food) SCs.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures

Slender masonry structures are distributed all over the world and constitute a relevant part of the architectural and cultural heritage of humanity. Their protection against earthquakes is a topic of great concern among the scientific community. This concern mainly arises from the strong damage or complete loss suffered by this group of structures due to catastrophic events and the need and interest to preserve them. Although the great progress in technology, and in the knowledge of seismology and earthquake engineering, the preservation of these brittle and massive structures still represents a major challenge. Based on the research developed in this work it is proposed a methodology for the seismic risk assessment of slender masonry structures. The proposed methodology was applied for the vulnerability assessment of Nepalese Pagoda temples which follow very simple construction procedure and construction detailing in relation to seismic resistance requirements. The work is divided in three main parts. Firstly, particular structural fragilities and building characteristics of the important UNESCO classified Nepalese Pagoda temples which affect their seismic performance and dynamic properties are discussed. In the second part the simplified method proposed for seismic vulnerability assessment of slender masonry structures is presented. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work is applied to study Nepalese Pagoda temples, as well as in the efficiency assessment of seismic performance improvement solution compatible with original cultural and technological value.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.