Prediction in Multilevel Logistic Regression

The purpose of this article is to present a new method to predict the response variable of an observation in a new cluster for a multilevel logistic regression. The central idea is based on the empirical best estimator for the random effect. Two estimation methods for multilevel model are compared: penalized quasi-likelihood and Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The performance measures for the prediction of the probability for a new cluster observation of the multilevel logistic model in comparison with the usual logistic model are examined through simulations and an application.

A new ovarian response prediction index (ORPI): implications for individualised controlled ovarian stimulation

Background: The objective was to present a new ovarian response prediction index (ORPI), which was based on anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels, antral follicle count (AFC) and age, and to verify whether it could be a reliable predictor of the ovarian stimulation response.Methods: A total of 101 patients enrolled in the ICSI programme were included. The ORPI values were calculated by multiplying the AMH level (ng/ml) by the number of antral follicles (2-9 mm), and the result was divided by the age (years) of the patient (ORPI=(AMH x AFC)/Patient age).Results: The regression analysis demonstrated significant (P<0.0001) positive correlations between the ORPI and the total number of oocytes and of MII oocytes collected. The logistic regression revealed that the ORPI values were significantly associated with the likelihood of pregnancy (odds ratio (OR): 1.86; P=0.006) and collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes (OR: 49.25; P<0.0001), greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes (OR: 6.26; P<0.0001) and greater than or equal to 15 oocytes (OR: 6.10; P<0.0001). Regarding the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 and an efficacy of 88% at a cut-off of 0.2. In relation to the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve had an AUC of 0.84 and an efficacy of 81% at a cut-off of 0.3. The ROC curve for the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 15 oocytes resulted in an AUC of 0.89 and an efficacy of 82% at a cut-off of 0.9. Finally, regarding the probability of pregnancy occurrence according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an AUC of 0.74 and an efficacy of 62% at a cut-off of 0.3.Conclusions: The ORPI exhibited an excellent ability to predict a low ovarian response and a good ability to predict a collection of greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes, an excessive ovarian response and the occurrence of pregnancy in infertile women. The ORPI might be used to improve the cost-benefit ratio of ovarian stimulation regimens by guiding the selection of medications and by modulating the doses and regimens according to the actual needs of the patients.

Cluster analysis and artificial neural network on the superovulatory response prediction in mice

Complex biological systems require sophisticated approach for analysis, once there are variables with distinct measure levels to be analyzed at the same time in them. The mouse assisted reproduction, e.g. superovulation and viable embryos production, demand a multidisciplinary control of the environment, endocrinologic and physiologic status of the animals, of the stressing factors and the conditions which are favorable to their copulation and subsequently oocyte fertilization. In the past, analyses with a simplified approach of these variables were not well succeeded to predict the situations that viable embryos were obtained in mice. Thereby, we suggest a more complex approach with association of the Cluster Analysis and the Artificial Neural Network to predict embryo production in superovulated mice. A robust prediction could avoid the useless death of animals and would allow an ethic management of them in experiments requiring mouse embryo.

Pushover analysis for the seismic response prediction of cable-stayed bridges under multi-directional excitation

Cable-stayed bridges represent nowadays key points in transport networks and their seismic behavior needs to be fully understood, even beyond the elastic range of materials. Both nonlinear dynamic (NL-RHA) and static (pushover) procedures are currently available to face this challenge, each with intrinsic advantages and disadvantages, and their applicability in the study of the nonlinear seismic behavior of cable-stayed bridges is discussed here. The seismic response of a large number of finite element models with different span lengths, tower shapes and class of foundation soil is obtained with different procedures and compared. Several features of the original Modal Pushover Analysis (MPA) are modified in light of cable-stayed bridge characteristics, furthermore, an extension of MPA and a new coupled pushover analysis (CNSP) are suggested to estimate the complex inelastic response of such outstanding structures subjected to multi-axial strong ground motions.

The Comparative Effectiveness of EEG Biomarkers in Antidepressant Response and Illness Prediction in Major Depressive Disorder

Background: There is growing evidence that individual EEG differences may aid in classifying patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and also help predict clinical response to antidepressant treatment. This study aims to compare the effectiveness of EEG frequency band power, alpha asymmetry and prefrontal theta cordance towards escitalopram response prediction and MDD diagnosis, in a multi-site initiative. Methods: Resting EEG (eyes open and closed) was recorded from 64 electrodes in 44 depressed patients and 20 healthy controls at baseline, 2 weeks post-treatment and 8 weeks post-treatment. Clinical response was measured as change from baseline MADRS of 50% or more. EEG measures were analyzed (1) at baseline (2) at 2 weeks post-treatment and (3) as an ‘‘early change” variable defined as change in EEG from baseline to 2 weeks post-treatment. Results: At baseline, responders exhibited greater absolute alpha power in the left hemisphere versus the right while non-responders showed the opposite. Responders further exhibited a cortical asymmetry of greater right relative to left activity in parietal areas. Groups also differed in baseline relative delta power with responders showing greater power in the right hemisphere versus the left while non-responders showed the opposite. At 2 weeks post-treatment, responders exhibited greater absolute beta power in the left hemisphere relative to right and the opposite was noted for non-responders. The opposite pattern was noted for absolute and relative delta power at 2 weeks post-treatment. Responders exhibited early reduction in relative alpha power and early increments in relative theta power. Non-responders showed a significant early increase in prefrontal theta cordance. Absolute delta power helped distinguish MDD patients from healthy controls. Conclusions: Hemispheric asymmetries in the alpha and delta bands at pre-treatment baseline and at 2 weeks post-treatment have moderate to moderately strong predictive utility towards antidepressant treatment response. These findings have significant potential for improving clinical practice in psychiatry by eventually guiding clinical choice of treatments. This would greatly benefit patients awaiting relief from depressive symptoms as treatment optimization would help overcome problems associated with delayed recovery. Our results also indicate that resting EEG activity may have clinical utility in predicting MDD diagnosis.

The Comparative Effectiveness of EEG Biomarkers in Antidepressant Response and Illness Prediction in Major Depressive Disorder

Thesis (Ph.D, Neuroscience Studies) -- Queen's University, 2016-08-27 00:55:35.782

Optimierung der Pharmakotherapie schizophrener Patienten durch objektive Symptomerfassung und Therapeutisches Drug Monitoring

Der Erfolg einer Schizophrenie-Behandlung ist zum größten Teil abhängig vom Ansprechen des Patienten auf seine antipsychotische Medikation. Welches Medikament und welche Dosis bei einem individuellen Patienten wirksam sind, kann derzeit erst nach mehrwöchiger Behandlung beurteilt werden. Ein Grund für variierendes Therapieansprechen sind variable Plasmakonzentrationen der Antipsychotika. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, zu untersuchen, in wieweit der Therapieerfolg zu einem frühen Zeitpunkt der Behandlung durch objektive Symptomerfassung vorhersagbar ist und welche Faktoren die hohe Variabilität der Antipsychotikaspiegel im Blut beeinflussen. rnEine 18-monatige naturalistische klinische Studie an schizophrenen Patienten wurde durchgeführt, um folgende Fragen zu beantworten: Kann man das Therapieansprechen prädizieren und welche Instrumente sind dafür geeignet? Die Psychopathologie wurde anhand zweier Messskalen (Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, BPRS und Clinical Global Impressions, CGI) wöchentlich ermittelt, um die Besserung der Krankheitssymptome im Verlauf von 8 Wochen zu bewerten. Therapiebegleitend wurden noch die Serum-Konzentrationen der Antipsychotika gemessen. Objektive Symptomerfassung durch BPRS oder CGI waren als Messinstrumente geeignet, Therapieansprechen vorherzusagen. Bezogen auf den Behandlungsbeginn war eine Verminderung der Symptome hoch prädiktiv für späteres Therapieversagen oder -ansprechen. Eine Verminderung um mehr als 36,5% auf der BPRS Skala in Woche 2 wurde als signifikanter Schwellenwert für Nichtansprechen ermittelt. Patienten, deren Symptombesserung unterhalb des Schwellenwertes lag, hatten eine 11,2-fach höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit, am Ende der Studie nicht auf ihre medikamentöse Therapie anzusprechen als die Patienten, die sich um mindestens 36,5% verbesserten. Andere Faktoren, wie Alter, Geschlecht, Dauer der Erkrankung oder Anzahl der stationären Aufenthalte hatten keinen Einfluss auf die Prädiktion des Therapieansprechens. Therapeutische Antipsychotika-Spiegel übten einen positiven Einfluss auf die Ansprechrate aus. Bei Patienten mit therapeutischen Spiegeln war das Ansprechen rascher und die Ansprechrate größer als unter denjenigen deren Spiegel außerhalb der therapeutisch üblichen Bereiche lag. rnEine wichtige Voraussetzung für den Einsatz von TDM ist das Vorhandensein einer präzisen, reproduzierbaren, zeit- und kostensparenden analytischen Methode zur quantitativen Bestimmung der untersuchten Substanzen. Die Entwicklung und Validierung einer solchen geeigneten Methode wurde für den Nachweis von Haloperidol vorgenommen. Eine HPLC-Methode mit Säulenschaltung erwies sich für TDM geeignet. rnBasierend auf den Ergebnissen der eigenen klinischen Studie zur Response Prädiktion wurde untersucht, welche Faktoren die Variabilität der Pharmakokinetik von Antipsychotika beeinflussen. Die Variabilität der Pharmakokinetik ist ein Grund für fehlendes oder unzureichendes Ansprechen. Es wurde zum einen der Einfluss der galenischen Formulierung auf die Freisetzung und zum anderen der Einfluss von entzündlichen Prozessen auf die Metabolisierung eines Antipsychotikums untersucht. Dazu wurden Patientendaten retrospektiv ausgewertet.rnDie Analyse von 247 Serumspiegeln von Patienten, die mit Paliperidon in OROS®Formulierung, einer neu eingeführten Retardform, behandelt wurden, zeigte, dass die intraindividuelle Variabilität der Talspiegel (Vk) von Paliperidon 35% betrug. Er war damit vergleichbar wie für nicht retardiertes Risperidon 32% (p=n.s.). Die Retardierung hatte demnach keinen Varianz mindernden Effekt auf die Talspiegel des Antipsychotikums. Der Wirkstoff-Konzentrations-Bereich lag bei 21-55 ng/ml und entsprach ebenfalls nahezu dem therapeutischen Bereich von Risperidon (20-60 ng/ml). rnEntzündliche Prozesse können die Metabolisierung von Medikamenten verändern. Dies wurde bisher für Medikamente nachgewiesen, die über CYP1A2 abgebaut werden. Durch die eigene Analyse von 84 Patienten-Serumspiegeln konnte festgestellt werden, dass die Metabolisierung von Quetiapin während eines entzündlichen Prozesses beeinträchtigt war, wahrscheinlich durch Hemmung von CYP3A4. Dies sprach dafür, dass auch Wirkstoffe, die über CYP3A4 abgebaut werden, während eines entzündlichen Prozesses im Körper in ihrer Pharmakokinetik beeinträchtigt sein können. Aus diesem Grund sollte während einer Infektion unter der Therapie mit Quetiapin besonders auf die Nebenwirkungen geachtet werden und der Serumspiegel sollte in dieser Zeit überwacht werden, um den Patienten vor eventuellen Nebenwirkungen oder sogar Intoxikationen zu schützen. rnDie Befunde dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass bei einer Behandlung schizophrener Patienten mit Antipsychotika die Messung der Psychopathologie zur Vorhersage des Therapieansprechens und die Messung der Blutspiegel zur Identifizierung von Faktoren, die die pharmakokinetische Variabilität bedingen, geeignet sind. Objektive Symptomerfassung und Therapeutisches Drug Monitoring sind demnach Instrumente, die für die Steuerung der antipsychotischen Pharmakotherapie genutzt werden sollten.rn

IMPROVING QUANTITATIVE TREATMENT RESPONSE MONITORING WITH DEFORMABLE IMAGE REGISTRATION

Quantitative imaging with 18F-FDG PET/CT has the potential to provide an in vivo assessment of response to radiotherapy (RT). However, comparing tissue tracer uptake in longitudinal studies is often confounded by variations in patient setup and potential treatment induced gross anatomic changes. These variations make true response monitoring for the same anatomic volume a challenge, not only for tumors, but also for normal organs-at-risk (OAR). The central hypothesis of this study is that more accurate image registration will lead to improved quantitation of tissue response to RT with 18F-FDG PET/CT. Employing an in-house developed “demons” based deformable image registration algorithm, pre-RT tumor and parotid gland volumes can be more accurately mapped to serial functional images. To test the hypothesis, specific aim 1 was designed to analyze whether deformably mapping tumor volumes rather than aligning to bony structures leads to superior tumor response assessment. We found that deformable mapping of the most metabolically avid regions improved response prediction (P<0.05). The positive predictive power for residual disease was 63% compared to 50% for contrast enhanced post-RT CT. Specific aim 2 was designed to use parotid gland standardized uptake value (SUV) as an objective imaging biomarker for salivary toxicity. We found that relative change in parotid gland SUV correlated strongly with salivary toxicity as defined by the RTOG/EORTC late effects analytic scale (Spearman’s ρ = -0.96, P<0.01). Finally, the goal of specific aim 3 was to create a phenomenological dose-SUV response model for the human parotid glands. Utilizing only baseline metabolic function and the planned dose distribution, predicting parotid SUV change or salivary toxicity, based upon specific aim 2, became possible. We found that the predicted and observed parotid SUV relative changes were significantly correlated (Spearman’s ρ = 0.94, P<0.01). The application of deformable image registration to quantitative treatment response monitoring with 18F-FDG PET/CT could have a profound impact on patient management. Accurate and early identification of residual disease may allow for more timely intervention, while the ability to quantify and predict toxicity of normal OAR might permit individualized refinement of radiation treatment plan designs.

The immune response to the VlsE antigenic variation protein of Borrelia burgdorferi

The spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb) is the causative agent of Lyme disease. During infection, a strong immune response is elicited towards Bb by its host; however, the organism is able to persist and to disseminate to many different tissues. The vls locus is located on the linear plasmid lp28-1, a plasmid shown to be important for virulence in the mouse model. During infection, vlsE undergoes antigenic variation through a series of gene conversions, which results in the insertion of sequences from the silent, unexpressed cassettes into the vlsE cassette. We hypothesize that this antigenic variation is important in the spirochete's ability to persist within mammals by allowing it to evade the immune system. To define the role of vls in immune evasion, the immune response against VlsE was determined by using a recombinant form of VlsE (VlsE1-His) as an antigen to screen patient sera. Lyme patients produce antibodies that recognize VlsE, and these antibodies are present throughout the course of disease. Immunization with the VlsE1-His protein provided protection against infection with Bb expressing the same variant of VlsE (VlsE1), but was only partially protective when mice were infected with organisms expressing VlsE variants; however, subsequent VlsE immunization studies yielded inconsistent protection. Successful immunizations produced different antibody reactivities to VlsE epitopes than non-protective immunizations, but the reason for this variable response is unclear. In the process of developing genetic approaches to transform infectious Bb, it was determined that the transformation barrier posed by plasmids lp25 and lp56 could be circumvented by replacing the required lp25 gene pncA. To characterize the role of vlsE in infectivity, Bb lacking lp28-1 were complemented with a shuttle plasmid containing the lp25 encoded virulence determinant pncA and vlsE. Complemented spirochetes express VlsE, but the gene does not undergo antigenic variation and infectivity in the mouse model was not restored, indicating that either antigenic variation of vlsE is necessary for survival in the mouse model or that other genes on lp28-1 are important for virulence. ^

Differential stress response and susceptibility to oxidative injury in alveolar macrophages from C57BL/6J and C3H/HeJ mice following oxidant exposure

Studies have demonstrated a variable response to ozone among individuals and animal species and strains. For instance, C57BL/6J mice have a greater inflammatory response to ozone exposure than C3H/HeJ mice. In these studies, I utilized these strain differences in an effort to derive a mechanistic explanation to the variable strain sensitivity to ozone exposure. Therefore, alveolar macrophages (AM) from C57BL/6J and C3H/HeJ mice were exposed in vitro to hydrogen peroxide ($\rm H\sb2O\sb2$), heat and acetyl ceramide or in vivo to ozone. Necrosis and DNA fragmentation in macrophages from the two murine strains were determined to assess cytotoxicity following these treatments. In addition, synthesis and expression of the stress proteins, stress protein 72 (SP72) and heme oxygenase (HO-1), were examined following treatments. The in vitro experiments were conducted to eliminate the possibility of in vivo confounders (i.e., differences in breathing rates in the two strains) and thus directly implicate some inherent difference between cells from the two murine strains. $\rm H\sb2O\sb2$ and heat caused greater cytotoxicity in AM from C57BL/6J than C3H/HeJ mice and DNA fragmentation was a particularly sensitive indicator of cell injury. Similarly, AM from C57BL/6J mice were more sensitive to ozone exposure than cells from C3H/HeJ mice. Exposure to either 1 or 0.4 ppm ozone caused greater cytotoxicity in macrophages from C57BL/6J mice compared to macrophages from C3H/HeJ mice. The increased sensitivity of AM to injury was associated with decreased synthesis and expression of stress proteins. AM from C57BL/6J mice synthesized and expressed significantly less stress proteins in response to heat and ozone than AM from C3H/HeJ mice. Heat treatment resulted in greater synthesis and expression of SP72. In addition, macrophages from C57BL/6J mice expressed lower amounts of HO-1 than macrophages from C3H/HeJ mice following 0.4 ppm ozone exposure. Therefore, AM from C57BL/6J mice are more susceptible to oxidative injury than AM from C3H/HeJ mice which might be due to differential expression of stress proteins in these cells. ^

Acute and long-term effects of exercise on appetite control: Is there any benefit for weight control?

Purpose of review: To examine the relationship between energy intake, appetite control and exercise, with particular reference to longer term exercise studies. This approach is necessary when exploring the benefits of exercise for weight control, as changes in body weight and energy intake are variable and reflect diversity in weight loss. Recent findings: Recent evidence indicates that longer term exercise is characterized by a highly variable response in eating behaviour. Individuals display susceptibility or resistance to exercise-induced weight loss, with changes in energy intake playing a key role in determining the degree of weight loss achieved. Marked differences in hunger and energy intake exist between those who are capable of tolerating periods of exercise-induced energy deficit, and those who are not. Exercise-induced weight loss can increase the orexigenic drive in the fasted state, but for some this is offset by improved postprandial satiety signalling. Summary: The biological and behavioural responses to acute and long-term exercise are highly variable, and these responses interact to determine the propensity for weight change. For some people, long-term exercise stimulates compensatory increases in energy intake that attenuate weight loss. However, favourable changes in body composition and health markers still exist in the absence of weight loss. The physiological mechanisms that confer susceptibility to compensatory overconsumption still need to be determined.