The behavior of temporary sales in a macroeconomic context

Nós investigamos promoções temporárias usando uma base de dados detalhada de 13 anos sobre preços ao consumidor no Brasil, com cotações de preços coletadas decendialmente. Nós encontramos forte evidências da existência de relação entre a frequência e tamanho de promoções e as variáveis macroeconômicas. A crença comum na literatura de que promoções não reagem a mudanças nas variáveis macroeconômicas pode ser devido a baixa volatilidade do cenário macro- econômico nos países analisados até o presente momento.

Price setting and macroeconomic variables: evidence from Brazilian CPI

Esta tese investiga as estratégias de precificação em ambientes macroeconômicos distintos, utilizando uma base de dados única para o IPC da Fundação Getulio Vargas. A base de dados primária consiste em um painel de dados individuais para bens e serviços representando 100% do IPC para o período de 1996 a 2008. Durante este período, diversos eventos produziram uma variabilidade macroeconômica substancial no Brasil: duas crises em países emergentes, uma mudança de regime cambial e monetário, racionamento de energia, uma crise de expectativas eleitorais e um processo de desinflação. Como consequência, a inflação, a incerteza macroeconômica, a taxa de câmbio e o produto exibiram uma variação considerável no período. No primeiro capítulo, nós descrevemos a base de dados e apresentamos as principais estatísticas de price-setting para o Brasil. Em seguida, nos capítulos 2 e 3, nos construímos as séries de tempo destas estatísticas e das estatísticas de promoções, e as relacionamos com as variáveis macroeconômicas utilizando análises de regressões. Os resultados indicam que há uma relação substancial entre as estatísticas de price-setting e o ambiente macroeconômico para a economia brasileira.

ANALISANDO O GRAU DE RELAÇÃO E CORRELAÇÃO ENTRE VARIÁVEIS MACROECONÔMICAS E O SETOR SUCROALCOOLEIRO

O modelo brasileiro de utilização de recursos provenientes de biomassa pode ser considerado como referência na utilização em substituição da matriz energética. Dentre eles o etanol vem se destacando como uma fonte de bioenergia cada vez mais utilizada, principalmente na frota de veículos, tal incentivo vem sendo sedimentado ao longo de quase quatro décadas desde a primeira crise do petróleo com a implantação do PROALCOOL até o desenvolvimento e a aplicação da tecnologia de carros bicombustíveis conhecidos como veículos flex, que hoje representam aproximadamente 90% dos automóveis vendidos. O presente trabalho buscará identificar a existência de uma relação entre os indicadores de produção de automóveis, o aumento de produção de etanol e as variáveis macroeconômicas pelos índices de INCC, IPCA e IGP-M que são amplamente conhecidos e reconhecidos pelo governo, empresários e população. Foi utilizada a técnica multivariada de regressão e correlação com auxilio do oftware SPSS. Os resultados sugerem que existe uma correlação entre os índices macroeconômicos mais baixos e o aumento da produção de automóveis e de etanol.

The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Infrequent Information with Adjustment Costs

In the last decade, the potential macroeconomic effects of intermittent large adjustments in microeconomic decision variables such as prices, investment, consumption of durables or employment – a behavior which may be justified by the presence of kinked adjustment costs – have been studied in models where economic agents continuously observe the optimal level of their decision variable. In this paper, we develop a simple model which introduces infrequent information in a kinked adjustment cost model by assuming that agents do not observe continuously the frictionless optimal level of the control variable. Periodic releases of macroeconomic statistics or dividend announcements are examples of such infrequent information arrivals. We first solve for the optimal individual decision rule, that is found to be both state and time dependent. We then develop an aggregation framework to study the macroeconomic implications of such optimal individual decision rules. Our model has the distinct characteristic that a vast number of agents tend to act together, and more so when uncertainty is large. The average effect of an aggregate shock is inversely related to its size and to aggregate uncertainty. We show that these results differ substantially from the ones obtained with full information adjustment cost models.

Are professional macroeconomic forecasters able to do better than forecasting trends?

This paper investigates whether survey forecasters are able to make more accurate forecasts than simply supposing that the future values of the variable will move monotonically to the long-run expectation. We consider the forecasts individually, and the consensus forecasts. Consensus survey forecasts are able to do so to varying degrees depending on the variable, but this ability is largely limited to forecasts of the current quarter.

Major macroeconomic disturbances, expectations and policy responses

Includes bibliography

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Skewed Distribution of Circulating Activated Natural Killer T (NKT) Cells in Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders (CVID)

Common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID) is the commonest cause of primary antibody failure in adults and children, and characterized clinically by recurrent bacterial infections and autoimmune manifestations. Several innate immune defects have been described in CVID, but no study has yet investigated the frequency, phenotype or function of the key regulatory cell population, natural killer T (NKT) cells. We measured the frequencies and subsets of NKT cells in patients with CVID and compared these to healthy controls. Our results show a skewing of NKT cell subsets, with CD4+ NKT cells at higher frequencies, and CD8+ NKT cells at lower frequencies. However, these cells were highly activated and expression CD161. The NKT cells had a higher expression of CCR5 and concomitantly expression of CCR5+CD69+CXCR6 suggesting a compensation of the remaining population of NKT cells for rapid effector action.

BONA FIDE, STRONG-VARIABLE GALACTIC LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE STARS ARE FAST ROTATORS: DETECTION OF A HIGH ROTATIONAL VELOCITY IN HR CARINAE

We report optical observations of the luminous blue variable (LBV) HR Carinae which show that the star has reached a visual minimum phase in 2009. More importantly, we detected absorptions due to Si lambda lambda 4088-4116. To match their observed line profiles from 2009 May, a high rotational velocity of nu(rot) similar or equal to 150 +/- 20 km s(-1) is needed (assuming an inclination angle of 30 degrees), implying that HR Car rotates at similar or equal to 0.88 +/- 0.2 of its critical velocity for breakup (nu(crit)). Our results suggest that fast rotation is typical in all strong-variable, bona fide galactic LBVs, which present S-Dor-type variability. Strong-variable LBVs are located in a well-defined region of the HR diagram during visual minimum (the ""LBV minimum instability strip""). We suggest this region corresponds to where nu(crit) is reached. To the left of this strip, a forbidden zone with nu(rot)/nu(crit) > 1 is present, explaining why no LBVs are detected in this zone. Since dormant/ex LBVs like P Cygni and HD 168625 have low nu(rot), we propose that LBVs can be separated into two groups: fast-rotating, strong-variable stars showing S-Dor cycles (such as AG Car and HR Car) and slow-rotating stars with much less variability (such as P Cygni and HD 168625). We speculate that supernova (SN) progenitors which had S-Dor cycles before exploding (such as in SN 2001ig, SN 2003bg, and SN 2005gj) could have been fast rotators. We suggest that the potential difficulty of fast-rotating Galactic LBVs to lose angular momentum is additional evidence that such stars could explode during the LBV phase.

Automated supervised classification of variable stars in the CoRoT programme Method and application to the first four exoplanet fields

Aims. In this work, we describe the pipeline for the fast supervised classification of light curves observed by the CoRoT exoplanet CCDs. We present the classification results obtained for the first four measured fields, which represent a one-year in-orbit operation. Methods. The basis of the adopted supervised classification methodology has been described in detail in a previous paper, as is its application to the OGLE database. Here, we present the modifications of the algorithms and of the training set to optimize the performance when applied to the CoRoT data. Results. Classification results are presented for the observed fields IRa01, SRc01, LRc01, and LRa01 of the CoRoT mission. Statistics on the number of variables and the number of objects per class are given and typical light curves of high-probability candidates are shown. We also report on new stellar variability types discovered in the CoRoT data. The full classification results are publicly available.

Scalable continuous-variable entanglement of light beams produced by optical parametric oscillators

We show that scalable multipartite entanglement among light fields may be generated by optical parametric oscillators (OPOs). The tripartite entanglement existent among the three bright beams produced by a single OPO-pump, signal, and idler-is scalable to a system of many OPOs by pumping them in cascade with the same optical field. This latter serves as an entanglement distributor. The special case of two OPOs is studied, as it is shown that the resulting five bright beams share genuine multipartite entanglement. In addition, the structure of entanglement distribution among the fields can be manipulated to some degree by tuning the incident pump power. The scalability to many fields is straightforward, allowing an alternative implementation of a multipartite quantum information network with continuous variables.

A HARD AND VARIABLE X-RAY EMISSION FROM THE MASSIVE EMISSION-LINE STAR HD 157832

We report the discovery with XMM-Newton of a hard-thermal (T similar to 130 MK) and variable X-ray emission from the Be star HD 157832, a new member of the puzzling class of gamma-Cas-like Be/X-ray systems. Recent optical spectroscopy reveals the presence of a large/dense circumstellar disk seen at intermediate/high inclination. With a B1.5V spectral type, HD 157832 is the coolest gamma-Cas analog known. In addition, its non-detection in the ROSAT all-sky survey shows that its average soft X-ray luminosity varied by a factor larger than similar to 3 over a time interval of 14 yr. These two remarkable features, ""low"" effective temperature, and likely high X-ray variability turn HD 157832 into a promising object for understanding the origin of the unusually high-temperature X-ray emission in these systems.

Random perturbations of stochastic processes with unbounded variable length memory

We consider binary infinite order stochastic chains perturbed by a random noise. This means that at each time step, the value assumed by the chain can be randomly and independently flipped with a small fixed probability. We show that the transition probabilities of the perturbed chain are uniformly close to the corresponding transition probabilities of the original chain. As a consequence, in the case of stochastic chains with unbounded but otherwise finite variable length memory, we show that it is possible to recover the context tree of the original chain, using a suitable version of the algorithm Context, provided that the noise is small enough.