Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit.

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on bivariate observations of undesirable events and signs of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches taking into account only the undesirable outcomes. Logistic regression models are used to model the two responses, which are both assumed to take a binary form. A prior distribution for the unknown model parameters is suggested and an optional safety constraint can be included. Gain functions to be maximized are formulated in terms of accurate estimation of the limits of a therapeutic window or optimal treatment of the next cohort of subjects, although the approach could be applied to achieve any of a wide variety of objectives. The designs introduced are illustrated through simulation and retrospective implementation to a completed dose-escalation study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stressful Life Events and their Trajectories among Midlife Women: Observations from the Seattle Midlife Women's Health Study

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Process planning methodology: dynamic short-term planning for off-site construction in Slovenia

Planning is a vital element of project management but it is still not recognized as a process variable. Its objective should be to outperform the initially defined processes, and foresee and overcome possible undesirable events. Detailed task-level master planning is unrealistic since one cannot accurately predict all the requirements and obstacles before work has even started. The process planning methodology (PPM) has thus been developed in order to overcome common problems of the overwhelming project complexity. The essential elements of the PPM are the process planning group (PPG), including a control team that dynamically links the production/site and management, and the planning algorithm embodied within two continuous-improvement loops. The methodology was tested on a factory project in Slovenia and in four successive projects of a similar nature. In addition to a number of improvement ideas and enhanced communication, the applied PPM resulted in 32% higher total productivity, 6% total savings and created a synergistic project environment.

An evaluation of a Bayesian method of dose escalation based on bivariate binary responses

Recently, various approaches have been suggested for dose escalation studies based on observations of both undesirable events and evidence of therapeutic benefit. This article concerns a Bayesian approach to dose escalation that requires the user to make numerous design decisions relating to the number of doses to make available, the choice of the prior distribution, the imposition of safety constraints and stopping rules, and the criteria by which the design is to be optimized. Results are presented of a substantial simulation study conducted to investigate the influence of some of these factors on the safety and the accuracy of the procedure with a view toward providing general guidance for investigators conducting such studies. The Bayesian procedures evaluated use logistic regression to model the two responses, which are both assumed to be binary. The simulation study is based on features of a recently completed study of a compound with potential benefit to patients suffering from inflammatory diseases of the lung.

Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies

In this paper, Bayesian decision procedures are developed for dose-escalation studies based on binary measures of undesirable events and continuous measures of therapeutic benefit. The methods generalize earlier approaches where undesirable events and therapeutic benefit are both binary. A logistic regression model is used to model the binary responses, while a linear regression model is used to model the continuous responses. Prior distributions for the unknown model parameters are suggested. A gain function is discussed and an optional safety constraint is included. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Desenvolvimento de um núcleo versátil e integrado de ferramentas CAD/CAE para a modelagem e simulação de peças mecânicas

Currently there is still a high demand for quality control in manufacturing processes of mechanical parts. This keeps alive the need for the inspection activity of final products ranging from dimensional analysis to chemical composition of products. Usually this task may be done through various nondestructive and destructive methods that ensure the integrity of the parts. The result generated by these modern inspection tools ends up not being able to geometrically define the real damage and, therefore, cannot be properly displayed on a computing environment screen. Virtual 3D visualization may help identify damage that would hardly be detected by any other methods. One may find some commercial softwares that seek to address the stages of a design and simulation of mechanical parts in order to predict possible damages trying to diminish potential undesirable events. However, the challenge of developing softwares capable of integrating the various design activities, product inspection, results of non-destructive testing as well as the simulation of damage still needs the attention of researchers. This was the motivation to conduct a methodological study for implementation of a versatile CAD/CAE computer kernel capable of helping programmers in developing softwares applied to the activities of design and simulation of mechanics parts under stress. In this research it is presented interesting results obtained from the use of the developed kernel showing that it was successfully applied to case studies of design including parts presenting specific geometries, namely: mechanical prostheses, heat exchangers and piping of oil and gas. Finally, the conclusions regarding the experience of merging CAD and CAE theories to develop the kernel, so as to result in a tool adaptable to various applications of the metalworking industry are presented

Epidemiologia das reações transfusionais imediatas no Hospital Amaral Carvalho de Jaú

Pós-graduação em Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento (Biotecnologia Médica) - FMB

Gestão de risco: a importância da resiliência em eventos indesejáveis

Atualmente, ferramentas e dados estatísticos são muito utilizados para avaliar as condições perigosas enquanto, por outro lado, as pessoas usam o julgamento para perceber o risco, que tem como base a cultura do risco. A percepção do risco muda conforme o ambiente no qual a pessoa está imersa, e se diferencia conforme a cultura. O objetivo desta pesquisa é conhecer qual o papel dos diversos atores envolvidos na gestão de riscos e como a resiliência ajuda nos eventos indesejáveis. Foram investigados onze eventos indesejáveis, com dez entrevistados em seis organizações, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar como a gestão de risco, a resiliência e a percepção do risco interagem. A análise multifacetada reforçou a importância dos aspectos de resiliência para uma gestão de risco eficaz. A participação dos possíveis envolvidos no evento, desde o contexto da gestão, reforçado pelo controle compartilhado, identificação das habilidades individuais não prescritas, incentivo à cooperação entre esses atores, comunicação eficaz e simplificação dos processos são aspectos integradores a uma gestão de risco. Como oportunidade de investigação futura, a pesquisa reforça a necessidade de analisar aspectos da cultura organizacional abrangendo as ciências sociais: antropologia, sociologia, psicodinâmica do trabalho, sociologia da ética e cultura país como agente consciente e experimentador da realidade.

Análise de confiabilidade de um moto-ventilador centrífugo: aplicação no sistema de pressurização de subestação industrial para garantia da segurança operacional na indústria petroquímica

The need of the oil industry to ensure the safety of the facilities, employees and the environment, not to mention the search for maximum efficiency of its facilities, makes it seeks to achieve a high level of excellence in all stages of its production processes in order to obtain the required quality of the final product. Know the reliability of equipment and what it stands for a system is of fundamental importance for ensuring the operational safety. The reliability analysis technique has been increasingly applied in the oil industry as fault prediction tool and undesirable events that can affect business continuity. It is an applied scientific methodology that involves knowledge in engineering and statistics to meet and or analyze the performance of components, equipment and systems in order to ensure that they perform their function without fail, for a period of time and under a specific condition. The results of reliability analyzes help in making decisions about the best maintenance strategy of petrochemical plants. Reliability analysis was applied on equipment (bike-centrifugal fan) between the period 2010-2014 at the Polo Petrobras Guamaré Industrial, situated in rural Guamaré municipality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, where he collected data field, analyzed historical equipment and observing the behavior of faults and their impacts. The data were processed in commercial software reliability ReliaSoft BlockSim 9. The results were compared with a study conducted by the experts in the field in order to get the best maintenance strategy for the studied system. With the results obtained from the reliability analysis tools was possible to determine the availability of the centrifugal motor-fan and what will be its impact on the security of process units if it will fail. A new maintenance strategy was established to improve the reliability, availability, maintainability and decreased likelihood of Moto-Centrifugal Fan failures, it is a series of actions to promote the increased system reliability and consequent increase in cycle life of the asset. Thus, this strategy sets out preventive measures to reduce the probability of failure and mitigating aimed at minimizing the consequences.

Método de análise de vulnerabilidade utilizando redes complexas : aplicação na rede de transporte aéreo brasileira

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

Effects of a synthetic gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist, leuprolide, on rut-associated events in male red deer

This study examined the effectiveness of leuprolide, a gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist, in suppressing rut-associated events in farmed male red deer. In mid-January (~6 weeks before the rut period in the southern hemisphere) adult red deer (Cervus elaphus scoticus) stags that had been allocated to three groups (n = 10 per group) received leuprolide, administered subcutaneously in a 90-day release formulation, at zero (control), low (22.5 mg) or high (45 mg) doses. Following treatment with leuprolide there was evidence of suppression of mean plasma luteinising hormone concentration that was significant (P < 0.05) at 9 weeks. Mean plasma testosterone concentration of all three groups rose following treatment, then declined prematurely in the low- and high-dose leuprolide-treated groups, so that it was significantly (P < 0.05) suppressed (0.66 ± 0.29 and 2.0 ± 0.88 ng mL–1, low and high dose respectively) in early April when the peak value (9.0 ± 1.94 ng mL–1) was recorded from control stags. A reduction in mean liveweight occurred in all three groups through February–April and this did not differ among treatments. However, a corresponding reduction in mean body condition score was greater in the control stags (P < 0.05). There was little effect of leuprolide treatment on aggressive behaviours, but it lowered roaring frequency in the latter period of the rut. The results indicate that this gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist has potential for application in the deer farming industry to suppress undesirable effects of the rut.