Corpus-Based Speech Enhancement With Uncertainty Modeling and Cepstral Smoothing

We present a new approach for corpus-based speech enhancement that significantly improves over a method published by Xiao and Nickel in 2010. Corpus-based enhancement systems do not merely filter an incoming noisy signal, but resynthesize its speech content via an inventory of pre-recorded clean signals. The goal of the procedure is to perceptually improve the sound of speech signals in background noise. The proposed new method modifies Xiao's method in four significant ways. Firstly, it employs a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) instead of a vector quantizer in the phoneme recognition front-end. Secondly, the state decoding of the recognition stage is supported with an uncertainty modeling technique. With the GMM and the uncertainty modeling it is possible to eliminate the need for noise dependent system training. Thirdly, the post-processing of the original method via sinusoidal modeling is replaced with a powerful cepstral smoothing operation. And lastly, due to the improvements of these modifications, it is possible to extend the operational bandwidth of the procedure from 4 kHz to 8 kHz. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated across different noise types and different signal-to-noise ratios. The new method was able to significantly outperform traditional methods, including the one by Xiao and Nickel, in terms of PESQ scores and other objective quality measures. Results of subjective CMOS tests over a smaller set of test samples support our claims.

Epävarmuuden mallintaminen investointilaskelmissa ja irtautumispäätöksen ajoittaminen: Case Paroc

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu epävarmuuden mallintamista investointilaskelmissa. Kirjallisuuden perusteella luotiin prosessimalli, jolla voidaan strukturoidusti tehdä yritysinvestointi- tai yritysirtaantumispäätös. Malli koostuu neljästä päävaiheesta, mutta pääpainopiste mallissa on laskentamenetelmissä. Luotua prosessimallia sekä erityisesti laskentamenetelmiä on sovellettu yritysesimerkin avulla. Epävarmuuden mallintamisongelmaa on käsitelty sekä perinteisten klassillisten investointiteorioiden että reaalioptioajatteluun pohjautuvien menetelmien avulla. Reaalioptioteoriaan perustuvien menetelmien avulla voidaan ottaa huomioon tulevat epävarmuudet ja päätöksentekomahdollisuudet. Perinteisten reaalioptioteorioiden käytännön elämän vastaisten taustaoletuksien vuoksi tutkittiin erityisesti uusimpia malleja. Diplomityössä yritysesimerkiksi valittiin Paroc Group, jonka yritysjärjestelytilannetta tutkittiin sen nykyisen omistajan eli pankin näkökulmasta. Diplomityön yhtenä keskeisenä tavoitteena oli selvittää, että kannattaako pankin myydä yhtiö tämän hetkisellä markkinahinnalla vai odottaa parempaa myyntiajankohtaa.

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapa State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A Multi-Stage Stochastic Non-Linear Model for Reactive Power Planning Under Contingencies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Risk assessment of the spanish national railway system

The principal risks in the railway industry are mainly associated with collisions, derailments and level crossing accidents. An understanding of the nature of previous accidents on the railway network is required to identify potential causes and develop safety systems and deploy safety procedures. Risk assessment is a process for determining the risk magnitude to assist with decision-making. We propose a three-step methodology to predict the mean number of fatalities in railway accidents. The first is to predict the mean number of accidents by analyzing generalized linear models and selecting the one that best fits to the available historical data on the basis of goodness-offit statistics. The second is to compute the mean number of fatalities per accident and the third is to estimate the mean number of fatalities. The methodology is illustrated on the Spanish railway system. Statistical models accounting for annual and grouped data for the 1992-2009 time period have been analyzed. After identifying the models for broad and narrow gauges, we predicted mean number of accidents and the number of fatalities for the 2010-18 time period.

Preference intensity in MCDM when an additive utility function represents DM preferences

We propose a new method for ranking alternatives in multicriteria decision-making problems when there is imprecision concerning the alternative performances, component utility functions and weights. We assume decision maker?s preferences are represented by an additive multiattribute utility function, in which weights can be modeled by independent normal variables, fuzzy numbers, value intervals or by an ordinal relation. The approaches are based on dominance measures or exploring the weight space in order to describe which ratings would make each alternative the preferred one. On the one hand, the approaches based on dominance measures compute the minimum utility difference among pairs of alternatives. Then, they compute a measure by which to rank the alternatives. On the other hand, the approaches based on exploring the weight space compute confidence factors describing the reliability of the analysis. These methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation.

Quadcopter see and avoid using a fuzzy controller

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) industry is a fast growing sector. Nowadays, the market offers numerous possibilities for off-the-shelf UAVs such as quadrotors or fixed-wings. Until UAVs demonstrate advance capabilities such as autonomous collision avoidance they will be segregated and restricted to flight in controlled environments. This work presents a visual fuzzy servoing system for obstacle avoidance using UAVs. To accomplish this task we used the visual information from the front camera. Images are processed off-board and the result send to the Fuzzy Logic controller which then send commands to modify the orientation of the aircraft. Results from flight test are presented with a commercial off-the-shelf platform.

Hydrologic modeling and uncertainty analysis of an ungauged watershed using mapwindow-swat

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Evaluating the influence of spatial uncertainty in locality points for species distributional modeling

1. Species distribution modelling is used increasingly in both applied and theoretical research to predict how species are distributed and to understand attributes of species' environmental requirements. In species distribution modelling, various statistical methods are used that combine species occurrence data with environmental spatial data layers to predict the suitability of any site for that species. While the number of data sharing initiatives involving species' occurrences in the scientific community has increased dramatically over the past few years, various data quality and methodological concerns related to using these data for species distribution modelling have not been addressed adequately. 2. We evaluated how uncertainty in georeferences and associated locational error in occurrences influence species distribution modelling using two treatments: (1) a control treatment where models were calibrated with original, accurate data and (2) an error treatment where data were first degraded spatially to simulate locational error. To incorporate error into the coordinates, we moved each coordinate with a random number drawn from the normal distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 5 km. We evaluated the influence of error on the performance of 10 commonly used distributional modelling techniques applied to 40 species in four distinct geographical regions. 3. Locational error in occurrences reduced model performance in three of these regions; relatively accurate predictions of species distributions were possible for most species, even with degraded occurrences. Two species distribution modelling techniques, boosted regression trees and maximum entropy, were the best performing models in the face of locational errors. The results obtained with boosted regression trees were only slightly degraded by errors in location, and the results obtained with the maximum entropy approach were not affected by such errors. 4. Synthesis and applications. To use the vast array of occurrence data that exists currently for research and management relating to the geographical ranges of species, modellers need to know the influence of locational error on model quality and whether some modelling techniques are particularly robust to error. We show that certain modelling techniques are particularly robust to a moderate level of locational error and that useful predictions of species distributions can be made even when occurrence data include some error.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Conditional distribution modeling for estimating and exploiting uncertainty in control systems

This paper presents a general methodology for estimating and incorporating uncertainty in the controller and forward models for noisy nonlinear control problems. Conditional distribution modeling in a neural network context is used to estimate uncertainty around the prediction of neural network outputs. The developed methodology circumvents the dynamic programming problem by using the predicted neural network uncertainty to localize the possible control solutions to consider. A nonlinear multivariable system with different delays between the input-output pairs is used to demonstrate the successful application of the developed control algorithm. The proposed method is suitable for redundant control systems and allows us to model strongly non Gaussian distributions of control signal as well as processes with hysteresis.

A goal-based modeling approach to develop requirements of an adaptive system with environmental uncertainty

Dynamically adaptive systems (DASs) are intended to monitor the execution environment and then dynamically adapt their behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. The uncertainty of the execution environment is a major motivation for dynamic adaptation; it is impossible to know at development time all of the possible combinations of environmental conditions that will be encountered. To date, the work performed in requirements engineering for a DAS includes requirements monitoring and reasoning about the correctness of adaptations, where the DAS requirements are assumed to exist. This paper introduces a goal-based modeling approach to develop the requirements for a DAS, while explicitly factoring uncertainty into the process and resulting requirements. We introduce a variation of threat modeling to identify sources of uncertainty and demonstrate how the RELAX specification language can be used to specify more flexible requirements within a goal model to handle the uncertainty. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Quantifying the effects of temperature and concentration on variable-density flow in numerical modeling of groundwater systems: Implications for predictive uncertainty and data collection

Groundwater systems of different densities are often mathematically modeled to understand and predict environmental behavior such as seawater intrusion or submarine groundwater discharge. Additional data collection may be justified if it will cost-effectively aid in reducing the uncertainty of a model's prediction. The collection of salinity, as well as, temperature data could aid in reducing predictive uncertainty in a variable-density model. However, before numerical models can be created, rigorous testing of the modeling code needs to be completed. This research documents the benchmark testing of a new modeling code, SEAWAT Version 4. The benchmark problems include various combinations of density-dependent flow resulting from variations in concentration and temperature. The verified code, SEAWAT, was then applied to two different hydrological analyses to explore the capacity of a variable-density model to guide data collection. ^ The first analysis tested a linear method to guide data collection by quantifying the contribution of different data types and locations toward reducing predictive uncertainty in a nonlinear variable-density flow and transport model. The relative contributions of temperature and concentration measurements, at different locations within a simulated carbonate platform, for predicting movement of the saltwater interface were assessed. Results from the method showed that concentration data had greater worth than temperature data in reducing predictive uncertainty in this case. Results also indicated that a linear method could be used to quantify data worth in a nonlinear model. ^ The second hydrological analysis utilized a model to identify the transient response of the salinity, temperature, age, and amount of submarine groundwater discharge to changes in tidal ocean stage, seasonal temperature variations, and different types of geology. The model was compared to multiple kinds of data to (1) calibrate and verify the model, and (2) explore the potential for the model to be used to guide the collection of data using techniques such as electromagnetic resistivity, thermal imagery, and seepage meters. Results indicated that the model can be used to give insight to submarine groundwater discharge and be used to guide data collection. ^