922 resultados para UV LED


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Painolastivesien mukana kulkeutuvien lajien leviäminen on yksi vakavimmista globaaleista ympäristöuhkista. Kansainvälinen merenkulkujärjestö IMO määritteli vuonna 2004 kansainvälisen painolastivesiyleissopimuksen, jonka tarkoituksena on ehkäistä laivojen painolastivesien mukana kulkeutuvien lajien leviämistä. Sopimus velvoittaa aluksia käsittelemään niiden painolastivedet ja se sisältää myös käsittelyjärjestelmiltä edellytetyt vaatimukset. Vaikka sopimus ei ole vielä astunut voimaan, painolastivesien käsittelyyn löytyy markkinoilta jo useita kymmeniä IMO:n hyväksymiä käsittelyjärjestelmiä, jotka hyödyntävät erilaisia mekaanisia, fysikaalisia ja kemiallisia menetelmiä. Yksi yleisimmin käytetyistä menetelmistä on UV-säteilytys. UV-säteily tuotetaan elohopealampuilla, jotka kuitenkin kuluttavat paljon energiaa ja sisältävät myrkyllistä elohopeaa. Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli selvittää, voisiko elohopealamput korvata lähitulevaisuudessa UV-LED -lampuilla. UV-LED –lamppujen etuja ovat muun muassa energiatehokkuus, kestävä rakenne ja myrkyttömyys. Työn tärkeimpänä tavoitteena oli tutkia laboratoriomittausten avulla, millainen UV-annosmäärä 10-50 µm kokoisten kasviplanktonien inaktivoimiseen tarvitaan. Mittausjärjestelyt vastasivat suurelta osin IMO:n vaatimuksia. Laboratoriomittauksissa käytettiin 265 nm:n aallonpituudella toimivia UV-LED -lamppuja. Näytteiden analysoinnissa käytettiin sekä PAM-fluorometriä että virtaussytometriä. Saatujen tulosten perusteella tutkimuksessa käytettyjen lajien Asterionellopsis glacialis ja Thalassiosira sp. täydelliseen inaktivoitumiseen tarvittiin noin 600 mJ/cm2 suuruinen UV-annos. Tulos vastasi ennakko-odotuksia ja se oli vertailukelpoinen muiden aiheesta tehtyjen tutkimusten kanssa. Koska nykyisten UV-LED –lamppujen teho on hyvin alhainen, ne eivät vielä sovellu painolastivesien käsittelyyn. UV-LED –lamppujen kehitystyö on kuitenkin käynnissä ja on arvioitu, että niitä voitaisiin käyttää suurten virtaamien käsittelyssä 5-10 vuoden kuluttua.

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Veden riittämätön puhdistus aiheuttaa riskin veden käyttäjille. Miljoonia kuolemia vuosittain aiheuttavien vesiteitse leviävien sairauksien ehkäisemiseksi vaaditaan tehokkaita juomaveden desinfiointimenetelmiä. Kuivuuden ja väestönkasvun myötä veden tarve on lisääntynyt ja vedenkulutus tulee yhä kasvamaan. Tästä syystä mahdollisuus kierrättää vettä hyödyntäen sitä esimerkiksi kasteluun on saanut yhä enemmän huomiota. Kierrätettävä vesi on kuitenkin käsiteltävä huolellisesti sen sisältämän mikrobiologisen kontaminaatioriskin vuoksi. Ultraviolettisäteily luokitellaan fysikaaliseksi desinfiointimenetelmäksi. Sen tehokkuus perustuu mikro-organismien absorboimaan UV-säteilyyn, jonka aiheuttamien DNA:ssa tai RNA:ssa tapahtuvien muutoksien seurauksena mikro-organismi inaktivoituu ja estyy lisääntymästä. UV-desinfioinnissa on tyypillisesti käytetty elohopeahöyrylamppuja. Vaihtoehtoinen UV-säteilyn lähde ovat LEDit eli valoa emittoivat diodit. Matalapaine-elohopeahöyrylamppujen emittoima säteily on aallonpituudella 254 nm ja keskipaine-elohopeahöyrylamppujen emittoima säteily on laajakaistaista säteilyä. Energiatehokkuuden lisäksi LEDien etuna on, että niillä voidaan tuottaa kapeakaista säteilyä aallonpituudella, joka parhaiten absorboituu DNA:han. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena oli tutkia, onko UVC-alueen aallonpituuksien yhdistelmillä synergistisiä etuja LEDien desinfiointitehokkuuteen, kun desinfioidaan virtaavaa vettä useilla säteilyannoksilla ja indikaattorimikrobina käytetään kolibakteeria. Tavoitteena oli myös tutkia tällä hetkellä saatavissa olevien LEDien desinfiointitehokkuutta energiatehokkuuden näkökulmasta. Yksittäisistä aallonpituuksista desinfiointitehokkuudeltaan parhaimmaksi osoittautui 260 nm, aallonpituuksien yhdistelmistä tehokkain oli 265 nm:n ja 260 nm:n yhdistelmä. Muilla aallonpituuksien yhdistelmillä ei saavutettu odotettua parempaa desinfiointitehokkuutta. Optiselta teholtaan parhaimmat LEDit, 265 nm, 270 nm ja 275 nm olivat kokeiden perusteella myös energiatehokkuuden kannalta tarkasteltuina parhaimmat sekä yksittäin että yhdistelminä. UVC-aallonpituuksia emittoivien LEDien optisen tehokkuuden paraneminen on edellytys LEDien hyödyntämiselle desinfioinnissa.

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La preservación del medio ambiente, el avance en las técnicas para que el impacto de la actividad humana sobre la fauna y flora sea lo menor posible, hacen que se deban monitorizar los diversos indicadores de calidad. El presente estudio viene motivado debido a que actualmente existen sistemas de medida y control en continuo de la calidad de las aguas, al margen de los estudios de laboratorio por toma de muestras, a través de los cuales se obtienen indicadores de calidad. El desarrollo tecnológico en analizadores en continuo para la medida de fósforo, amonio, DBO y otros, hacen que cada vez se consiga un control más exhaustivo de la calidad en tiempo real. Sin embargo, la detección temprana de contaminantes que no deben encontrarse presentes en el agua, hacen que el desarrollo de sensores de detección de estos contaminantes sea de gran utilidad. A este respecto, las técnicas mediante fluorescencia presentan enormes ventajas, ya que no existe contacto directo con la muestra, reduciéndose el desgaste y alargando el tiempo entre mantenimientos, como se ha comprobado en numerosos desarrollos con tecnología láser. Para la producir fluorescencia, tradicionalmente se vienen utilizando en el laboratorio principalmente lámparas de gas y monocromadores. Los nuevos LED de alta potencia en el espectro ultravioleta son una alternativa muy interesante que además puede ser aplicada en los mencionados sistemas de medición en continuo. En este trabajo se realiza un estudio de viabilidad de estos dispositivos como fuentes de excitación para la producción de fluorescencia tomando como contaminantes los hidrocarburos. El funcionamiento en estaciones en continuo hace que se tenga que realizar además ensayos de vida acelerados, así como estudios de modos de trabajo. Al respecto de la fluorescencia producida, se estudia la influencia de factores que pueden afectar a las medidas, tales como la temperatura. El estudio del espectro y su análisis para la identificación del contaminante es otro de los puntos desarrollados en este trabajo. Por último, y dado que la monitorización se realiza en modo continuo, es necesario un sistema de comunicaciones compacto y fiable: en este apartado se analizan los metamateriales como solución tecnológica, ya que se adapta perfectamente a la filosofía de estas estaciones de medición. ABSTRACT Currently the monitoring of quality indicators is a need to preserve the environment and minimize the impact of human activity on the fauna and flora. Currently there are measuring systems and continuous monitoring of water quality, regardless of sampling laboratory studies, through which quality indicators are obtained. Technological development in continuous analyzers for the measurement of phosphorus, ammonia, BOD and others increasingly make a more comprehensive real-time quality control is achieved. However, early detection of contaminants that should not be present in the water, make the development of sensors for detecting these contaminants is very useful. In this regard, fluorescence techniques have huge advantages, since there is no direct contact with the sample, reducing wear and extending the time between maintenance, as has been demonstrated in numerous developments in laser technology. To produce fluoresce, traditionally are being used mainly gas lamps and monochromators at the laboratory. The new high-power LEDs in the ultraviolet spectrum are a very interesting alternative that can also be applied in the above continuous measurement systems. In this paper a viability study of these devices as excitation sources to produce fluorescence using hydrocarbon as contaminants is performed. The stations in continuous operation makes it necessary to also perform accelerated life tests and studies operating modes. In regard to the fluorescence produced, the influence of factors that may affect the measurements, such as temperature is studied. The study of the spectrum and analysis to identify the contaminant is another of the points developed in this work. Finally, since the monitoring is carried out in continuous mode, a compact and reliable communication is necessary: in this section metamaterials as a technological solution is analyzed since it fits perfectly with the philosophy of these measuring stations.

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The study of III-nitride materials (InN, GaN and AlN) gained huge research momentum after breakthroughs in the production light emitting diodes (LEDs) and laser diodes (LDs) over the past two decades. Last year, the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded jointly to Isamu Akasaki, Hiroshi Amano and Shuji Nakamura for inventing a new energy efficient and environmental friendly light source: blue light-emitting diode (LED) from III-nitride semiconductors in the early 1990s. Nowadays, III-nitride materials not only play an increasingly important role in the lighting technology, but also become prospective candidates in other areas, for example, the high frequency (RF) high electron mobility transistor (HEMT) and photovoltaics. These devices require the growth of high quality III-nitride films, which can be prepared using metal organic vapour phase epitaxy (MOVPE). The main aim of my thesis is to study and develop the growth of III-nitride films, including AlN, u-AlGaN, Si-doped AlGaN, and InAlN, serving as sample wafers for fabrication of ultraviolet (UV) LEDs, in order to replace the conventional bulky, expensive and environmentally harmful mercury lamp as new UV light sources. For application to UV LEDs, reducing the threading dislocation density (TDD) in AlN epilayers on sapphire substrates is a key parameter for achieving high-efficiency AlGaNbased UV emitters. In Chapter 4, after careful and systematic optimisation, a working set of conditions, the screw and edge type dislocation density in the AlN were reduced to around 2.2×108 cm-2 and 1.3×109 cm-2 , respectively, using an optimized three-step process, as estimated by TEM. An atomically smooth surface with an RMS roughness of around 0.3 nm achieved over 5×5 µm 2 AFM scale. Furthermore, the motion of the steps in a one dimension model has been proposed to describe surface morphology evolution, especially the step bunching feature found under non-optimal conditions. In Chapter 5, control of alloy composition and the maintenance of compositional uniformity across a growing epilayer surface were demonstrated for the development of u-AlGaN epilayers. Optimized conditions (i.e. a high growth temperature of 1245 °C) produced uniform and smooth film with a low RMS roughness of around 2 nm achieved in 20×20 µm 2 AFM scan. The dopant that is most commonly used to obtain n-type conductivity in AlxGa1-xN is Si. However, the incorporation of Si has been found to increase the strain relaxation and promote unintentional incorporation of other impurities (O and C) during Si-doped AlGaN growth. In Chapter 6, reducing edge-type TDs is observed to be an effective appoach to improve the electric and optical properties of Si-doped AlGaN epilayers. In addition, the maximum electron concentration of 1.3×1019 cm-3 and 6.4×1018 cm-3 were achieved in Si-doped Al0.48Ga0.52N and Al0.6Ga0.4N epilayers as measured using Hall effect. Finally, in Chapter 7, studies on the growth of InAlN/AlGaN multiple quantum well (MQW) structures were performed, and exposing InAlN QW to a higher temperature during the ramp to the growth temperature of AlGaN barrier (around 1100 °C) will suffer a significant indium (In) desorption. To overcome this issue, quasi-two-tempeature (Q2T) technique was applied to protect InAlN QW. After optimization, an intense UV emission from MQWs has been observed in the UV spectral range from 320 to 350 nm measured by room temperature photoluminescence.

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This work deals with a red phosphor. Y3BO6:Eu3+, and its corresponding poly(N-vinylpyrrolidone) (PVP)/Y3BO6:Eu3+ luminescent composite film suitable for applications in the next generation of Hg-free lamps based on near ultraviolet (UV) light emitting diodes (LEDs). Well crystallized samples of Y3BO6 powders with the Eu3+ content up to 20 mol% were prepared by the Pechini method. After structural, morphological and optical characterization, the best doping rate of Eu3+ in the matrix was determined to be 15 mol%. This optimal powder, which is highly friable, was easily ground into fine particles and homogeneously dispersed into a PVP polymer solution to give rise to a polymer phosphor composite. Structural and optical features of the composite film have been studied and compared to those of a pristine PVP film and Y3BO6:Eu3+ powder. All the characterization (XRD, SAXS, luminescence...) proved that the red phosphor particles are well incorporated into the polymer composite film which exhibited the characteristic red emission of Eu3+ under UV light excitation. Furthermore, photostability of the polymer/phosphor composite film under UV-LED irradiation was evaluated from exposure to accelerated artificial photoageing at wavelengths above 300 nm.

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Kvantitatiivinen reaaliaikainen polymeraasiketjureaktio (engl. polymerase chain reaction, PCR) on osoittautunut käyttäjäystävällisimmäksi menetelmäksi nukleiinihapposekvenssien kvantitoimisessa. Tätä menetelmää voidaan herkistää pienempien DNA-pitoisuuksien havaitsemiseen käyttämällä hyväksi aikaerotteista fluorometriaa (engl. time-resolved fluorometry, TRF) ja luminoivia lantanidileimoja, joiden fluoresenssin pitkän eliniän ansiosta emission mittaus voidaan suorittaa vasta hetki virittävän valopulssin jälkeen, jolloin lyhytikäinen taustasäteily ehtii sammua. Tuloksena saadaan korkea signaali-taustasuhde. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena oli rakentaa TRF:än pystyvä reaaliaikainen PCR-laite, sillä tällaista laitetta ei ole markkinoilla tarjolla. Laite rakennettiin kehittämällä lämpökierrätin ja yhdistämällä se valmiiseen TRF:än kykenevään mittapäähän. Mittapään ja lämpökierrättimen hallitsemiseksi kehitettiin myös tietokoneohjelma. Valon tuottamiseksi ja mittaamiseksi haluttiin käyttää edullisia komponentteja, joten työssä käytettiin valmiin mittapään optiikkaa, jossa viritys tapahtuu hohtodiodilla (engl. light-emitting diode, LED) ja lantanidileiman emission mittaus fotodiodilla (engl. photodiode, PD) tai valomonistinputkella (engl. photomultiplier tube, PMT). Myös mittapään suorituskykyä tutkittiin. Työtä varten kehitettiin lämpökierrätin, joka koostui Peltier-elementillä lämmitettävästä PCR-putkitelineestä ja lämpökannesta. Mittalaitteen suorituskyvyn tutkimiseen käytettiin kelaattikomplementaatioon perustuvaa PCR-tuotteen havaitsemismenetelmää. Kelaattikomplementaatio perustuu kahteen erilliseen oligonukleotidimolekyyliin, joista toiseen on sidottu lantanidi-ioni ja toiseen valoa absorboiva ligandirakenne, jotka yhdessä muodostavat fluoresoivan kokonaisuuden. Kehitetyn lämpökierrättimen todettiin olevan tarpeeksi tarkka sekä tehokas ja sen lämmitys- ja jäähdytysnopeuden maksimeiksi saatiin 2,6 °C/sekunti. Detektorina käytetyn PD:n ei todettu olevan tarpeeksi herkkä emission havainnoimiseksi ja se korvattiin laitteessa PMT:llä. Käytetyllä PCR-määrityksellä kynnyssykleiksi (engl. threshold cycle, Ct) sekä kehitetylle että referenssilaitteelle saatiin 28,4 käyttämällä samaa 100 000 kopion DNA:n aloitusmäärää. Työssä osoitettiin, että on mahdollista kehittää edullisia komponentteja käyttävä, TRF:än pystyvä, reaaliaikainen PCR-laite, joka kykenee vastaavaan Ct-arvoon kuin vertailulaite. PD:n herkkyys ei kuitenkaan riittänyt. Tulokset olivat lupaavia, sillä LED- ja PD-teknologiat kehittyvät ja markkinoille on tullut myös muita komponentteja, joiden avulla on tulevaisuudessa mahdollista kehittää vielä herkempi laite.

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Pós-graduação em Ciências Odontológicas - FOAR

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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The primary motivation behind the considerable effort in studying stratospheric ozone depletion is the potential for biological consequences of increased solar UVB (280–315 nm) radiation. Yet, direct links between ozone depletion and biological impacts have been established only for organisms of Antarctic waters under the influence of the ozone “hole;” no direct evidence exists that ozone-related variations in UVB affect ecosystems of temperate latitudes. Indeed, calculations based on laboratory studies with plants suggest that the biological impact of ozone depletion (measured by the formation of cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers in DNA) is likely to be less marked than previously thought, because UVA quanta (315–400 nm) may also cause significant damage, and UVA is unaffected by ozone depletion. Herein, we show that the temperate ecosystems of southern South America have been subjected to increasingly high levels of ozone depletion during the last decade. We found that in the spring of 1997, despite frequent cloud cover, the passages of the ozone hole over Tierra del Fuego (55° S) caused concomitant increases in solar UV and that the enhanced ground-level UV led to significant increases in DNA damage in the native plant Gunnera magellanica. The fluctuations in solar UV explained a large proportion of the variation in DNA damage (up to 68%), particularly when the solar UV was weighted for biological effectiveness according to action spectra that assume a sharp decline in quantum efficiency with increasing wavelength from the UVB into the UVA regions of the spectrum.

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The effect of postcure high energy (gamma), ultraviolet (UV) and thermal treatment on the properties of polyester-melamine clearcoats of a range of compositions has been investigated. Two initial cure conditions were used, of which one was '' optimally '' cured and the other undercured. It was found that postcure treatments, particularly gamma and UV, led to coatings of similar mechanical and thermal properties irrespective of initial cure, although the change in properties on postcure treatment was greater for the under-cured samples. The results were interpreted in terms of the effect of the treatments on the structure of the crosslinked matrices. The study suggests the possibility of the development of a dual-cure process for polyester-melamines, whereby cure optimization and property improvement can be achieved. This could also be used to '' correct '' for small variations in thermal cure levels brought about by adventitious online fluctuations in cure oven conditions.

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Tendo por referência a diretiva 2006/95/CE, o trabalho desenvolvido no contexto da disciplina de Dissertação/Projeto/Estágio do Mestrado de Engenharia de Instrumentação e Metrologia, decorreu nas instalações do IEP (Instituto Electrotécnico Português) e teve como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento de um procedimento de avaliação dos efeitos fotobiológicos no olho e pele provocados por fontes de emissão contínua (LED), doravante designado método alternativo ao de referência. Os dois métodos, alternativo e de referência, utilizam respectivamente um foto-radiómetro multicanal e um espetro-radiómetro. O procedimento desenvolvido (método alternativo) de acordo com a norma EN/IEC62471) consiste na aquisição dos valores de irradiância com recurso a um foto-radiómetro e posterior determinação dos valores da radiância, com os quais se faz a avaliação dos efeitos fotobiológicos, para fontes de luz LED (Light Emitting Diode) ou GLS (General Lighting Service). A consulta detalhada da norma EN/IEC62471 e a pesquisa sobre os conceitos, definições, equipamentos e metodologias relacionadas com o tema em causa, constituiu o primeiro passo deste projecto. Com recurso aos dois equipamentos, uma fonte de luz LED (módulo de 12 lâmpadas LED) é avaliada em relação aos perigos (ou riscos) actínico UV e UV-A, ao perigo da luz azul e ainda o perigo térmico na retina e térmico na pele, permitindo fazer uma análise comparativa dos resultados. O método alternativo revelou-se bastante flexível e eficaz, proporcionando bons resultados em termos da irradiância e radiância dos referidos efeitos fotobiológicos. A comparação destes resultados com os valores limites de exposição mencionados na norma EN/IEC6247 permitiu afirmar que a fonte de luz LED avaliada não representa perigo fotobiológico para a saúde humana e classifica-se no grupo de risco “isento”. Uma vez cumpridos os objectivos, entendeu-se que seria uma mais-valia para o trabalho já realizado, estudar outro caso prático. Sendo assim, fez-se a avaliação da radiação de apenas um dos LED´s que constituíam a fonte usada nos ensaios anteriores, com o espetro-radiómetro (método de referência) e com uma distância de 200 mm entre a fonte e o medidor. Neste caso verificaram-se diferenças significativas nas quantidades obtidas quando comparadas com os valores normativos. Concluiu-se que o efeito fotobiológico da luz azul insere-se no grupo de “isento”, sem perigo para a saúde. Contudo, o efeito térmico da retina apresenta um aumento considerável da quantidade de radiância, embora dentro do grupo de risco “isento”. Esta classificação de grupos de risco. Face aos resultados obtidos, pode confirmar-se que as lâmpadas LED apresentam segurança fotobiológica, atendendo aos baixos valores de irradiância e radiância dos efeitos fotobiológicos estudados. Pode ainda afirmar-se que a utilização do foto-radiómetro em alternativa ao espetro-radiómetro se revela mais eficaz do ponto de vista de metodologia prática. Este trabalho demonstra a robustez desses dois equipamentos de avaliação dos efeitos fotobiológicos, e procura estabelecer uma linha de orientação para a prevenção dos efeitos adversos na pele e olhos de todos os seres humanos sujeitos à radiação ótica artificial. Quanto às incertezas de medições, em relação ao processo de medição com foto-radiómetro, a sua estimação não se realizou, devido a não rastreabilidade entre as medições indicadas pelo fabricante, no certificado de calibração e as medidas realizadas por outras entidades. Contudo, é propõe-se a sua realização em trabalhos futuros dentro desse âmbito. As incertezas dos resultados de medições com espetro-radiómetro foram parcialmente estimadas. Atendendo às potencialidades do sistema de medição, propõe-se como trabalho futuro, a aplicação da norma IEC62478, que faz parte da aplicação da norma EN/IEC62471 na avaliação do efeito da luz azul, com base na determinação da temperatura de cor correlacionada (CCT) de lâmpadas ou sistemas de lâmpadas incluindo luminárias. Os valores de irradiância e radiância adquiridos nos processos de avaliação, tanto com foto-radiómetro como espectro-radiómetro foram gravados em ficheiro Excel para um CD e anexados a este trabalho.

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Työssä tutkittiin Kemira Chemicals Oy:n Vaasan polyelektrolyyttitehtaalla led -tekniikan käyttöönottoa polyakryyliamidin valmistamisessa fotoinitiaatiolla. Led- tekniikan käyttöönoton seuraamisella ja erilaisten mittausten tekemisellä oli tarkoitus saada uudesta teknologiasta tietoa, jonka perusteella tulevaisuuden investointiesitykset voisivat olla paremmin perusteltavissa. Työn kirjallisuusosassa käytiin läpi valaistus- ja led -tekniikan perusteita sekä polymeerien perusteita. Lisäksi polyelektrolyyttien ominaisuudet ja käyttökohteet käytiin läpi. Kirjallisuusosan lopussa käytiin läpi polymerointia, fotoinitiaatiota ja vapaiden radikaalien toimintaa. Myös kustannuslaskentaa selvitettiin. Mittausten ja vertailujen perusteella voitiin todeta led -valojen vaikuttaneen positiivisesti prosessin toimintaan ja lopputuotteiden laatuun. Tämänlaisessa sovelluksessa led -tekniikka ei ole kuitenkaan vielä kilpailukykyistä vanhaan teknologiaan verrattuna puhtaasti taloudellisesti ajateltuna.

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SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

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UV-B-Strahlung, die durch die fortschreitende Zerstörung der Ozonschicht zunimmt, ist hauptsächlich für das Entstehen von Basaliomen und Plattenepithelkarzinomen verantwort-lich, an denen jedes Jahr etwa 2-3 Millionen Menschen weltweit erkranken. UV-B indu-zierte Hautkarzinogenese ist ein komplexer Prozess, bei dem vor allem die mutagenen und immunsuppressiven Wirkungen der UV-B-Strahlung von Bedeutung sind. Die Rolle von GM-CSF in der Hautkarzinogenese ist dabei widersprüchlich. Aus diesem Grund wurde die Funktion von GM-CSF in vivo in der UV-B induzierten Hautkarzinogenese mittels zwei bereits etablierter Mauslinien untersucht: Erstens transgene Mäuse, die einen GM-CSF Antagonisten unter der Kontrolle des Keratin-10-Promotors in den suprabasalen Schichten der Epidermis exprimieren und zweitens solche, die unter dem Keratin-5-Promotor murines GM-CSF in der Basalschicht der Epidermis überexprimieren. Eine Gruppe von Tieren wurde chronisch, die andere akut bestrahlt. Die konstitutionelle Verfassung der Tiere mit erhöhter GM-CSF-Aktivität in der Haut war nach chronischer UV-B-Bestrahlung insgesamt sehr schlecht. Sie wiesen deshalb eine stark erhöhte Mortali-tät auf. Dies ist sowohl auf die hohe Inzidenz als auch dem frühen Auftreten der benignen und malignen Läsionen zurückzuführen. Eine verminderte GM-CSF Aktivität verzögerte dagegen die Karzinomentwicklung und erhöhte die Überlebensrate leicht. GM-CSF wirkt auf verschiedenen Ebenen tumorpromovierend: Erstens erhöht eine gesteigerte Mastzell-anzahl in der Haut der GM-CSF überexprimierenden Tiere per se die Suszeptibilität für Hautkarzinogenese. Zweitens stimuliert GM-CSF die Keratinozytenproliferation. Dadurch kommt es nach UV-B-Bestrahlung zu einer prolongierten epidermalen Hyperproliferation, die zur endogenen Tumorpromotion beiträgt, indem sie die Bildung von Neoplasien unter-stützt. Der Antagonist verzögert dagegen den Proliferationsbeginn, die Keratinozyten blei-ben demzufolge länger in der G1-Phase und der durch UV-B verursachte DNA-Schaden kann effizienter repariert werden. Drittens kann GM-CSF die LCs nicht als APCs aktivie-ren und eine Antitumorimmunität induzieren, da UV-B-Strahlung zur Apoptose von LCs bzw. zu deren Migration in Richtung Lymphknoten führt. Zusätzlich entwickeln GM-CSF überexprimierende Tiere in ihrer Haut nach UV-B-Bestrahlung ein Millieu von antago-nistisch wirkenden Zytokinen, wie TNF-a, TGF-b1 und IL-12p40 und GM-CSF, die proinflammatorische Prozesse und somit die Karzinomentwicklung begünstigen. Der Anta-gonist hemmt nach UV-B-Bestrahlung die Ausschüttung sowohl von immunsuppressiven Zytokinen, wie etwa TNF-a, als auch solchen, die die Th2-Entwicklung unterstützen, wie etwa IL-10 und IL-4. Dies wirkt sich negativ auf die Karzinomentwicklung aus.