A capture–recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 × 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture–recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture–recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Bayesian Estimation for Performance Measures of Two Diagnostic Tests in the Presence of Verification Bias

Sensitivity and specificity are measures that allow us to evaluate the performance of a diagnostic test. In practice, it is common to have situations where a proportion of selected individuals cannot have the real state of the disease verified, since the verification could be an invasive procedure, as occurs with biopsy. This happens, as a special case, in the diagnosis of prostate cancer, or in any other situation related to risks, that is, not practicable, nor ethical, or in situations with high cost. For this case, it is common to use diagnostic tests based only on the information of verified individuals. This procedure can lead to biased results or workup bias. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian approach to estimate the sensitivity and the specificity for two diagnostic tests considering verified and unverified individuals, a result that generalizes the usual situation based on only one diagnostic test.

Circulating antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins 2 interfere with antigen detection by rapid diagnostic tests

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for detection of Plasmodium falciparum infection that target P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2), a protein that circulates in the blood of patients infected with this species of malaria, are widely used to guide case management. Understanding determinants of PfHRP2 availability in circulation is therefore essential to understanding the performance of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Methods The possibility that pre-formed host anti-PfHRP2 antibodies may block target antigen detection, thereby causing false negative test results was investigated in this study. Results Anti-PfHRP2 antibodies were detected in 19/75 (25%) of plasma samples collected from patients with acute malaria from Cambodia, Nigeria and the Philippines, as well as in 3/28 (10.7%) asymptomatic Solomon Islands residents. Pre-incubation of plasma samples from subjects with high-titre anti-PfHRP2 antibodies with soluble PfHRP2 blocked the detection of the target antigen on two of the three brands of RDTs tested, leading to false negative results. Pre-incubation of the plasma with intact parasitized erythrocytes resulted in a reduction of band intensity at the highest parasite density, and a reduction of lower detection threshold by ten-fold on all three brands of RDTs tested. Conclusions These observations indicate possible reduced sensitivity for diagnosis of P. falciparum malaria using PfHRP2-detecting RDTs among people with high levels of specific antibodies and low density infection, as well as possible interference with tests configured to detect soluble PfHRP2 in saliva or urine samples. Further investigations are required to assess the impact of pre-formed anti-PfHRP2 antibodies on RDT performance in different transmission settings.

Comparing diagnostic tests with missing data

When missing data occur in studies designed to compare the accuracy of diagnostic tests, a common, though naive, practice is to base the comparison of sensitivity, specificity, as well as of positive and negative predictive values on some subset of the data that fits into methods implemented in standard statistical packages. Such methods are usually valid only under the strong missing completely at random (MCAR) assumption and may generate biased and less precise estimates. We review some models that use the dependence structure of the completely observed cases to incorporate the information of the partially categorized observations into the analysis and show how they may be fitted via a two-stage hybrid process involving maximum likelihood in the first stage and weighted least squares in the second. We indicate how computational subroutines written in R may be used to fit the proposed models and illustrate the different analysis strategies with observational data collected to compare the accuracy of three distinct non-invasive diagnostic methods for endometriosis. The results indicate that even when the MCAR assumption is plausible, the naive partial analyses should be avoided.

Accuracy of routine diagnostic tests used in paracoccidioidomycosis patients at a university hospital

The identification of appropriate laboratory measures to confirm clinical hypotheses is important in routine paracoccidioidomycosis medical care. The clinical records and laboratory reports of 401 paracoccidioidomycosis patients attended at the Tropical Diseases Area, Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, from 1974 to 2008 were reviewed. Direct mycological (DM), cell block (CB), histopathological (HP), and double immunodiffusion (DID) tests were evaluated before treatment. Typical Paracoccidioides brasiliensis yeast forms were observed in clinical specimens of 86% of the patients, but 14% were detected only by serological test. DM of 51 different tissue specimens produced 74.5% sensitivity, and 62.5% sensitivity was observed in 112 sputum samples. CB in 483 sputum samples generated 55.3% sensitivity. HP performed in 239 samples from different tissues revealed 96.7% sensitivity. Serology carried out in 351 patients and 200 healthy controls provided 90.0% sensitivity, 100.0% specificity, 100.0% positive predictive value, 85.1% negative predictive value and 93.6% accuracy. Comparisons of laboratory measurements performed in the same patient showed that sensitivity decreases from HP to DID to CB and DM, with the last two assays providing similar sensitivities. This study demonstrated that P. brasiliensis identification by HP, CB, and/or DM associated with DID is sufficient to establish the laboratorial diagnosis of paracoccidioidomycosis in practically all cases. (C) 2011 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

RANDOM EFFECTS MODELS IN A META-ANALYSIS OF THE ACCURACY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS WITHIN A GOLD STANDARD IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING DATA

In evaluating the accuracy of diagnosis tests, it is common to apply two imperfect tests jointly or sequentially to a study population. In a recent meta-analysis of the accuracy of microsatellite instability testing (MSI) and traditional mutation analysis (MUT) in predicting germline mutations of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, a Bayesian approach (Chen, Watson, and Parmigiani 2005) was proposed to handle missing data resulting from partial testing and the lack of a gold standard. In this paper, we demonstrate an improved estimation of the sensitivities and specificities of MSI and MUT by using a nonlinear mixed model and a Bayesian hierarchical model, both of which account for the heterogeneity across studies through study-specific random effects. The methods can be used to estimate the accuracy of two imperfect diagnostic tests in other meta-analyses when the prevalence of disease, the sensitivities and/or the specificities of diagnostic tests are heterogeneous among studies. Furthermore, simulation studies have demonstrated the importance of carefully selecting appropriate random effects on the estimation of diagnostic accuracy measurements in this scenario.

Rapid diagnostic tests for the home-based management of malaria, in a high-transmission area

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Utility and safety of invasive (fractional flow reserve) and non-invasive (cardiac magnetic resonance imaging) diagnostic tests in patients with NSTEMI

A prospective randomised controlled clinical trial of treatment decisions informed by invasive functional testing of coronary artery disease severity compared with standard angiography-guided management was implemented in 350 patients with a recent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) admitted to 6 hospitals in the National Health Service. The main aims of this study were to examine the utility of both invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) and non-invasive cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) amongst patients with a recent diagnosis of NSTEMI. In summary, the findings of this thesis are: (1) the use of FFR combined with intravenous adenosine was feasible and safe amongst patients with NSTEMI and has clinical utility; (2) there was discordance between the visual, angiographic estimation of lesion significance and FFR; (3). The use of FFR led to changes in treatment strategy and an increase in prescription of medical therapy in the short term compared with an angiographically guided strategy; (4) in the incidence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) at 12 months follow up was similar in the two groups. Cardiac MRI was used in a subset of patients enrolled in two hospitals in the West of Scotland. T1 and T2 mapping methods were used to delineate territories of acute myocardial injury. T1 and T2 mapping were superior when compared with conventional T2-weighted dark blood imaging for estimation of the ischaemic area-at-risk (AAR) with less artifact in NSTEMI. There was poor correlation between the angiographic AAR and MRI methods of AAR estimation in patients with NSTEMI. FFR had a high accuracy at predicting inducible perfusion defects demonstrated on stress perfusion MRI. This thesis describes the largest randomized trial published to date specifically looking at the clinical utility of FFR in the NSTEMI population. We have provided evidence of the diagnostic and clinical utility of FFR in this group of patients and provide evidence to inform larger studies. This thesis also describes the largest ever MRI cohort, including with myocardial stress perfusion assessments, specifically looking at the NSTEMI population. We have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy of FFR to predict reversible ischaemia as referenced to a non-invasive gold standard with MRI. This thesis has also shown the futility of using dark blood oedema imaging amongst all comer NSTEMI patients when compared to novel T1 and T2 mapping methods.

Transcription and expression of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins in different stages and strains : implications for rapid diagnostic tests

Background: Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum infection that target histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are generally sensitive, their performance has been reported to be variable. One possible explanation for variable test performance is differences in expression level of PfHRP in different parasite isolates. Methods: Total RNA and protein were extracted from synchronised cultures of 7 P. falciparum lines over 5 time points of the life cycle, and from synchronised ring stages of 10 falciparum lines. Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot analysis and ELISA we investigated variations in the transcription and protein levels of pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and PfHRP respectively in the different parasite lines, over the parasite intraerythrocytic life cycle. Results: Transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 in different parasite lines over the parasite life cycle was observed to vary relative to the control parasite K1. In some parasite lines very low transcription of these genes was observed. The peak transcription was observed in ring-stage parasites. Pfhrp2 transcription was observed to be consistently higher than pfhrp3 transcription within parasite lines. The intraerythrocytic lifecycle stage at which the peak level of protein was present varied across strains. Total protein levels were more constant relative to total mRNA transcription, however a maximum 24 fold difference in expression at ring-stage parasites relative to the K1 strain was observed. Conclusions: The levels of transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3, and protein expression of PfHRP varied between different P. falciparum strains. This variation may impact on the detection sensitivity of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs.

Comparison of diagnostic tests in myasthenia gravis

Results of 3 tests, intravenous edrophonium chloride, EMG, and acetylcholine receptor antibody testing, were compared in patients with generalised and ocular myasthenia gravis. None of the 3 tests was positive in any patient with a diagnosis other than myasthenia. However, equivocal results were obtained with edrophonium and EMG testing in some patients with myasthenia gravis and in patients with other diseases. It is concluded from this survey that antibody and edrophonium testing were equally efficient in detecting generalised myasthenia gravis. Edrophonium testing was superior in ocular myasthenia gravis. Although the yields from each test varied, all 3 tests were needed for the evaluation of some myasthenia gravis patients as each test may provide additional information.

Identification of optimal epitopes for Plasmodium falciparum rapid diagnostic tests that target histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent important tools to diagnose malaria infection. To improve understanding of the variable performance of RDTs that detect the major target in Plasmodium falciparum, namely, histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), and to inform the design of better tests, we undertook detailed mapping of the epitopes recognized by eight HRP-specific monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). To investigate the geographic skewing of this polymorphic protein, we analyzed the distribution of these epitopes in parasites from geographically diverse areas. To identify an ideal amino acid motif for a MAb to target in HRP2 and in the related protein HRP3, we used a purpose-designed script to perform bioinformatic analysis of 448 distinct gene sequences from pfhrp2 and from 99 sequences from the closely related gene pfhrp3. The frequency and distribution of these motifs were also compared to the MAb epitopes. Heat stability testing of MAbs immobilized on nitrocellulose membranes was also performed. Results of these experiments enabled the identification of MAbs with the most desirable characteristics for inclusion in RDTs, including copy number and coverage of target epitopes, geographic skewing, heat stability, and match with the most abundant amino acid motifs identified. This study therefore informs the selection of MAbs to include in malaria RDTs as well as in the generation of improved MAbs that should improve the performance of HRP-detecting malaria RDTs.

Blood transfer devices for malaria rapid diagnostic tests : evaluation of accuracy, safety and ease of use

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are increasingly used by remote health personnel with minimal training in laboratory techniques. RDTs must, therefore, be as simple, safe and reliable as possible. Transfer of blood from the patient to the RDT is critical to safety and accuracy, and poses a significant challenge to many users. Blood transfer devices were evaluated for accuracy and precision of volume transferred, safety and ease of use, to identify the most appropriate devices for use with RDTs in routine clinical care. Methods: Five devices, a loop, straw-pipette, calibrated pipette, glass capillary tube, and a new inverted cup device, were evaluated in Nigeria, the Philippines and Uganda. The 227 participating health workers used each device to transfer blood from a simulated finger-prick site to filter paper. For each transfer, the number of attempts required to collect and deposit blood and any spilling of blood during transfer were recorded. Perceptions of ease of use and safety of each device were recorded for each participant. Blood volume transferred was calculated from the area of blood spots deposited on filter paper. Results: The overall mean volumes transferred by devices differed significantly from the target volume of 5 microliters (p < 0.001). The inverted cup (4.6 microliters) most closely approximated the target volume. The glass capillary was excluded from volume analysis as the estimation method used is not compatible with this device. The calibrated pipette accounted for the largest proportion of blood exposures (23/225, 10%); exposures ranged from 2% to 6% for the other four devices. The inverted cup was considered easiest to use in blood collection (206/ 226, 91%); the straw-pipette and calibrated pipette were rated lowest (143/225 [64%] and 135/225 [60%] respectively). Overall, the inverted cup was the most preferred device (72%, 163/227), followed by the loop (61%, 138/227). Conclusions: The performance of blood transfer devices varied in this evaluation of accuracy, blood safety, ease of use, and user preference. The inverted cup design achieved the highest overall performance, while the loop also performed well. These findings have relevance for any point-of-care diagnostics that require blood sampling.