Social Networks Shape the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis C Virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects 170 million people worldwide, and is a major public health problem in Brazil, where over 1% of the population may be infected and where multiple viral genotypes co-circulate. Chronically infected individuals are both the source of transmission to others and are at risk for HCV-related diseases, such as liver cancer and cirrhosis. Before the adoption of anti-HCV control measures in blood banks, this virus was mainly transmitted via blood transfusion. Today, needle sharing among injecting drug users is the most common form of HCV transmission. Of particular importance is that HCV prevalence is growing in non-risk groups. Since there is no vaccine against HCV, it is important to determine the factors that control viral transmission in order to develop more efficient control measures. However, despite the health costs associated with HCV, the factors that determine the spread of virus at the epidemiological scale are often poorly understood. Here, we sequenced partial NS5b gene sequences sampled from blood samples collected from 591 patients in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. We show that different viral genotypes entered Sao Paulo at different times, grew at different rates, and are associated with different age groups and risk behaviors. In particular, subtype 1b is older and grew more slowly than subtypes 1a and 3a, and is associated with multiple age classes. In contrast, subtypes 1a and 3b are associated with younger people infected more recently, possibly with higher rates of sexual transmission. The transmission dynamics of HCV in Sao Paulo therefore vary by subtype and are determined by a combination of age, risk exposure and underlying social network. We conclude that social factors may play a key role in determining the rate and pattern of HCV spread, and should influence future intervention policies.

Evolution of Wolbachia pipientis transmission dynamics in insects

Wolbachia pipientis is an intracellular bacterial parasite of arthropods that enhances its transmission by manipulating host reproduction, most commonly by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility. The discovery of isolates with modified cytoplasmic incompatibility phenotypes and others with novel virulence properties is an indication of the potential breadth of evolutionary strategies employed by Wolbachia.

A longitudinal study on the transmission dynamics of human Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi infection in Amazonian Brazil, with special reference to its prevalence and incidence

This was a longitudinal study carried out during a period over 2 years with a cohort of 946 individuals of both sexes, aged 1 year and older, from an endemic area of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Para State, Brazil. The object was to analyze the transmission dynamics of human Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi infection based principally on the prevalence and incidence. For diagnosis of the infection, the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and leishmanin skin test (LST) were performed with amastigote and promastigote antigens of the parasite, respectively. The prevalence by LST (11.2%) was higher (p < 0.0001) than that (3.4%) by IFAT, and the combined prevalence by both tests was 12.6%. The incidences by LST were also higher (p < 0.05) than those by IFAT at 6 (4.7% A- 0.6%), 12 (4.7% A- 2.7%), and 24 months (2.9% A- 0.3%). Moreover, there were no differences (p > 0.05) between the combined incidences by both tests on the same point surveys, 5.2%, 6.3%, and 3.6%. During the study, 12 infected persons showed high IFAT IgG titers with no LST reactions: five children and two adults developed AVL (2,560-10,120), and two children and three adults developed subclinical oligosymptomatic infection (1,280-2,560). The combined tests diagnosed a total of 231 cases of infection leading to an accumulated prevalence of 24.4%.

Potential impact of a presumed increase in the biting activity of dengue-virus-infected Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females on virus transmission dynamics

Recently, we showed that infection with dengue virus increases the locomotor activity of Aedes aegypti females. We speculate that the observed increased locomotor activity could potentially increase the chances of finding a suitable host and, as a consequence, the relative biting rate of infected mosquitoes. We used a mathematical model to investigate the impact of the increased locomotor activity by assuming that this activity translated into an increased biting rate for infected mosquitoes. The results show that the increased biting rate resulted in dengue outbreaks with greater numbers of primary and secondary infections and with more severe biennial epidemics.

Is there an efficient trap or collection method for sampling Anopheles darlingi and other malaria vectors that can describe the essential parameters affecting transmission dynamics as effectively as human landing catches? - A Review

Distribution, abundance, feeding behaviour, host preference, parity status and human-biting and infection rates are among the medical entomological parameters evaluated when determining the vector capacity of mosquito species. To evaluate these parameters, mosquitoes must be collected using an appropriate method. Malaria is primarily transmitted by anthropophilic and synanthropic anophelines. Thus, collection methods must result in the identification of the anthropophilic species and efficiently evaluate the parameters involved in malaria transmission dynamics. Consequently, human landing catches would be the most appropriate method if not for their inherent risk. The choice of alternative anopheline collection methods, such as traps, must consider their effectiveness in reproducing the efficiency of human attraction. Collection methods lure mosquitoes by using a mixture of olfactory, visual and thermal cues. Here, we reviewed, classified and compared the efficiency of anopheline collection methods, with an emphasis on Neotropical anthropophilic species, especially Anopheles darlingi, in distinct malaria epidemiological conditions in Brazil.

Angiostrongylus cantonensis infection in molluscs in the municipality of São Gonçalo, a metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: role of the invasive species Achatina fulica in parasite transmission dynamics

The aim of this study was to analyse the infection dynamics ofAngiostrongylus cantonensisin its possible intermediate hosts over two years in an urban area in the state of Rio de Janeiro where the presence ofA. cantonensis had been previously recorded in molluscs. Four of the seven mollusc species found in the study were exotic.Bradybaena similariswas the most abundant, followed byAchatina fulica, Streptaxissp., Subulina octona, Bulimulus tenuissimus, Sarasinula linguaeformisand Leptinaria unilamellata. Only A. fulicaand B. similariswere parasitised by A. cantonensis and both presented co-infection with other helminths. The prevalence of A. cantonensisin A. fulicawas more than 50% throughout the study. There was an inverse correlation between the population size ofA. fulicaand the prevalence of A. cantonensisand abundance of the latter was negatively related to rainfall. The overall prevalence of A. cantonensisin B. similariswas 24.6%. A. fulicawas the most important intermediary host of A. cantonensisin the studied area andB. similariswas secondary in importance for A. cantonensistransmission dynamics.

Transmission dynamics and tuberculosis control among HIV/AIDS patients

Introduction: Les efforts globaux pour contrôler la tuberculose sont présentement restreints par la prévalence croissante du VIH/SIDA. Quoique les éclosions de la tuberculose multi résistante (TB-MDR) soient fréquemment rapportées parmi les populations atteintes du SIDA, le lien entre VIH/SIDA et le développement de résistance n’est pas clair. Objectifs: Cette recherche visait à : (1) développer une base de connaissances concernant les facteurs associés à des éclosions de la TB-MDR parmi les patients atteints du VIH/SIDA; (2) utiliser ce cadre de connaissances pour accroître des mesures préliminaires pour mieux contrôler la tuberculose pulmonaire chez les patients atteints du VIH/SIDA; et (3) afin d’améliorer l’application des ces mesures, affiner les techniques bactériologiques existantes pour Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Méthodologie: Quatre études ont été réalisées : (1) Une étude longitudinale pour identifier les facteurs associés avec une éclosion de la TB-MDR parmi les patients atteints du SIDA qui ont reçu le traitement directement supervisé de courte durée (DOTS) pour la tuberculose pulmonaire au Lima et au Pérou entre 1999 et 2005; (2) Une étude transversale pour décrire différentes étapes de l’histoire naturelle de la tuberculose, la prévalence et les facteurs associés avec la mycobactérie qu’on retrouve dans les selles des patients atteints du SIDA; (3) Un projet pilote pour développer des stratégies de dépistage pour la tuberculose pulmonaire parmi les patients hospitalisés atteints du SIDA, en utilisant l’essaie Microscopic Observation Drug Susceptibility (MODS); et (4) Une étude laboratoire pour identifier les meilleures concentrations critiques pour détecter les souches MDR de M. tuberculosis en utilisant l’essaie MODS. Résultats : Étude 1 démontre qu’une épidémie de TB-MDR parmi les patients atteints du SIDA qui ont reçu DOTS pour la tuberculose pulmonaire ait été causée par la superinfection du clone de M. tuberculosis plutôt que le développement de la résistance secondaire. Bien que ce clone ait été plus commun parmi la cohorte de patients atteints du SIDA, il n’avait aucune différence de risque pour superinfection entre les patients avec ou sans SIDA. Ces résultats suggèrent qu’un autre facteur, possiblement associé à la diarrhée, peu contribuer à la prévalence élevée de ce clone chez les patients atteints du SIDA. Étude 2 suggère que chez la plupart des patients atteints du SIDA il a été retrouvé une mycobactérie dans leurs selles alors qu’ils étaient en phase terminale au niveau de la tuberculose pulmonaire. Or, les patients atteints du SIDA ayant été hospitalisés pendant les deux dernières années pour une autre condition médicale sont moins à risque de se retrouver avec une mycobactérie dans leurs selles. Étude 3 confirme que la tuberculose pulmonaire a été commune à tous les patients hospitalisés atteints du SIDA, mais diagnostiquée incorrectement en utilisant les critères cliniques présentement recommandés pour la tuberculose. Or, l’essaie MODS a détecté pour la plupart de ces cas. De plus, MODS a été également efficace quand la méthode a été dirigée aux patients soupçonnés d’avoir la tuberculose, à cause de leurs symptômes. Étude 4 démontre les difficultés de détecter les souches de M. tuberculosis avec une faible résistance contre ethambutol et streptomycine en utilisant l’essai MODS avec les concentrations de drogue présentement recommandées pour un milieu de culture. Cependant, l’utilité diagnostique de MODS peut être améliorée ; modifier les concentrations critiques et utiliser deux plaques et non une, pour des tests réguliers. Conclusion: Nos études soulèvent la nécessité d’améliorer le diagnostic et le traitement de la tuberculose parmi les patients atteints du SIDA, en particulier ceux qui vivent dans des régions avec moins de ressources. Par ailleurs, nos résultats font ressortir les effets indirects que les soins de santé ont sur les patients infectés par le VIH et qu’ils peuvent avoir sur le développement de la tuberculose.

Malaria on the Amazonian frontier: Transmission dynamics, risk factors, spatial distribution, and prospects for control

Little follow-up data on malaria transmission in communities originating from frontier settlements in Amazonia are available. Here we describe a cohort study in a frontier settlement in Acre, Brazil, where 509 subjects contributed 489.7 person-years of follow-up. The association between malaria morbidity during the follow-up and individual, household, and spatial covariates was explored with mixed-effects logistic regression models and spatial analysis. Incidence rates for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria were 30.0/100 and 16.3/100 person-years at risk, respectively. Malaria morbidity was strongly associated with land clearing and farming, and decreased after five years of residence in the area, suggesting that clinical immunity develops among subjects exposed to low malaria endemicity. Significant spatial clustering of malaria was observed in the areas of most recent occupation, indicating that the continuous influx of nonimmune settlers to forest-fringe areas perpetuates the cycle of environmental change and colonization that favors malaria transmission in rural Amazonia.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Transmission dynamics of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in the tertiary care hospital and the household setting

Studies about transmission rates of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae in hospitals and households are scarce.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF ENTERIC BACTERIA IN DAY-CARE CENTERS, HOUSTON, TEXAS

An investigation was undertaken to evaluate the role of fomites in the transmission of diarrhea in day-care centers (DCC) and to elucidate the paths by which enteric organisms spread within this setting.^ During a nine-month period (December 1980-August 1981) extensive culturing of inanimate objects, as well as children and staff was done routinely each month and again repeated during diarrhea outbreaks. Air was sampled from the classrooms and toilets using a Single-Stage Sieve Sampler (Ross Industries, Midland, VA.). Stool samples were collected from both ill and well children and staff in the affected rooms only during outbreaks. Environmental samples were processed for Shigella, salmonella and fecal coliforms while stools were screened for miscellaneous enteropathogens.^ A total of 11 outbreaks occurred in the 5 DCC during the study period. Enteric pathogens were recovered in 7 (64%) of the outbreaks. Multiple pathogens were identified in 3 outbreaks. The most frequently identified pathogen in stools was Giardia lamblia which was recovered in 5 (45%) of the outbreaks. Ten of the 11 (91%) outbreaks occurred in children less than 12 months of age.^ Environmental microbiology studies together with epidemiologic information revealed that enteric organisms were transmitted from person-to-person. On routine sampling, fecal coliforms were most frequently isolated from tap handles and diaper change areas. Contamination with fetal coliforms was wide-spread during diarrhea outbreaks. Fecal coliforms were recovered with significantly greater frequency from hands, toys and other classroom objects during outbreaks than during non-outbreak period. Salmonella typhimurium was recovered from a table top during an outbreak of Salmonellosis. There was no association between the level of enteric microbial contamination in the toilet areas and the occurrence of outbreaks. No evidence was found to indicate that enteric organisms were spread by the airborne route via aerosols.^ Toys, other classroom objects and contaminated hands probably play a major role in the transmission of enteropathogens during day-care center outbreaks. The presence of many enteric agents in the environment undoubtedly explains the polymicrobial etiology of the day-care center associated diarrhea outbreaks. ^

Transmission dynamics of the Echinococcus granulosus sheep-dog strain (G1 genotype) in camels in Tunisia

Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Price transmission dynamics between ADRs and their underlying foreign security: The case of Banco de Colombia S.A.- Bancolombia.

This paper analyzes the dynamics ofthe American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of a Colombian bank (Bancolombia) in relation to its pricing factors (underlying (preferred) shares price, exchange rate and the US market index). The aim is to test if there is a long-term relation among these variables that would imply predictability. One cointegrating relation is found allowing the use of a vector error correction model to examine the transmission of shocks to the underlying prices, the exchange rate, and the US market index. The main finding of this paper is that in the short run, the underlying share price seems to adjust after changes in the ADR price, pointing to the fact that the NYSE (trading market for the ADR) leads the Colombian market. However, in the long run, both, the underlying share price and the ADR price, adjust to changes in one another.