Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Transition dynamics for multi-pulsing in mode-locked lasers

We consider experimentally and theoretically a refined parameter space in a mode-locked fiber laser near the transition to multi-pulsing. Increasing cavity energy drives the dynamics through a periodic instability to chaotic dynamics. © 2010 Optical Society of America.

Characterizing the transition dynamics for multi-pulsing in mode-locked lasers

We consider experimentally and theoretically a refined parameter space near the transition to multi-pulse modelocking. Near the transition, the onset of instability is initiated by a Hopf (periodic) bifurcation. As cavity energy is increased, the band of unstable, oscillatory modes generates a chaotic behavior between single- and multi-pulse operation. Both theory and experiment are in good qualitative agreement and they suggest that the phenomenon is of a universal nature in mode-locked lasers at the onset of multi-pulsing from N to N + 1 pulses per round trip. This is the first theoretical and experimental characterization of the transition behavior, made possible by a highly refined tuning of the gain pump level. © 2010 Copyright SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering.

Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Extreme Harmonic Generation In Electrically Driven Spin Resonance.

We report the observation of multiple harmonic generation in electric dipole spin resonance in an InAs nanowire double quantum dot. The harmonics display a remarkable detuning dependence: near the interdot charge transition as many as eight harmonics are observed, while at large detunings we only observe the fundamental spin resonance condition. The detuning dependence indicates that the observed harmonics may be due to Landau-Zener transition dynamics at anticrossings in the energy level spectrum.

Labor productivity in Spain: 1977-2002

This study examines the evolution of labor productivity across Spanish regions during the period from 1977 to 2002. By applying the kernel technique, we estimate the effects of the Transition process on labor productivity and its main sources. We find that Spanish regions experienced a major convergence process in labor productivity and in human capital in the 1977-1993 period. We also pinpoint the existence of a transition co-movement between labor productivity and human capital. Conversely, the dynamics of investment in physical capital seem unrelated to the transition dynamics of labor productivity. The lack of co-evolution can be addressed as one of the causes of the current slowdown in productivity. Classification-JEL: J24, N34, N940, O18, O52, R10

On the optimality of progressive income redistribution

We compute the optimal non-linear tax policy for a dynastic economy with uninsurable risk, where generations are linked by dynastic wealth accumulation and correlated incomes. Unlike earlier studies, we find that the optimal long-run tax policy is moderately regressive. Regressive taxes lead to higher output and consumption, at the expense of larger after-tax income inequality. Nevertheless, equilibrium effects and the availability of self-insurance via bequests mitigate the impact of regressive taxes on consumption inequality, resulting in improved average welfare overall. We also consider the optimal once-and-for-all change in the tax system, taking into account the transition dynamics. Starting at the U.S. status quo, the optimal tax reform is slightly more progressive than the current system.

On choice of technique in the Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model

We report results on the optimal \choice of technique" in a model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (henceforth, the RSS model) and further discussed by Okishio and Stiglitz. By viewing this vintage-capital model without discounting as a speci c instance of the general theory of intertemporal resource allocation associated with Brock, Gale and McKenzie, we resolve longstanding conjectures in the form of theorems on the existence and price support of optimal paths, and of conditions suÆcient for the optimality of a policy rst identi ed by Stiglitz. We dispose of the necessity of these conditions in surprisingly simple examples of economies in which (i) an optimal path is periodic, (ii) a path following Stiglitz' policy is bad, and (iii) there is optimal investment in di erent vintages at di erent times. (129 words)

Unsupervised reinforcement learning via state entropy maximization

Reinforcement Learning (RL) provides a powerful framework to address sequential decision-making problems in which the transition dynamics is unknown or too complex to be represented. The RL approach is based on speculating what is the best decision to make given sample estimates obtained from previous interactions, a recipe that led to several breakthroughs in various domains, ranging from game playing to robotics. Despite their success, current RL methods hardly generalize from one task to another, and achieving the kind of generalization obtained through unsupervised pre-training in non-sequential problems seems unthinkable. Unsupervised RL has recently emerged as a way to improve generalization of RL methods. Just as its non-sequential counterpart, the unsupervised RL framework comprises two phases: An unsupervised pre-training phase, in which the agent interacts with the environment without external feedback, and a supervised fine-tuning phase, in which the agent aims to efficiently solve a task in the same environment by exploiting the knowledge acquired during pre-training. In this thesis, we study unsupervised RL via state entropy maximization, in which the agent makes use of the unsupervised interactions to pre-train a policy that maximizes the entropy of its induced state distribution. First, we provide a theoretical characterization of the learning problem by considering a convex RL formulation that subsumes state entropy maximization. Our analysis shows that maximizing the state entropy in finite trials is inherently harder than RL. Then, we study the state entropy maximization problem from an optimization perspective. Especially, we show that the primal formulation of the corresponding optimization problem can be (approximately) addressed through tractable linear programs. Finally, we provide the first practical methodologies for state entropy maximization in complex domains, both when the pre-training takes place in a single environment as well as multiple environments.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Dynamics of Fréedericksz transition in a fluctuating magnetic field

Fréedericksz transition under twist deformation in a nematic layer is discussed when the magnetic field has a random component. A dynamical model which includes the thermal fluctuations of the system is presented. The randomness of the field produces a shift of the instability point. Beyond this instability point the time constant characteristic of the approach to the stationary stable state decreases because of the field fluctuations. The opposite happens for fields smaller than the critical one. The decay time of an unstable state, calculated as a mean first-passage time, is also decreased by the field fluctuations.