Modelagem do “tempo de execução” de obras civis: estudo de caso na Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)

O objetivo desta pesquisa é propor um modelo numérico prognóstico que trate a variável “tempo” de forma eficiente e eficaz, com a finalidade de atender às reais necessidades dos clientes-usuários e à sociedade em geral. Todavia, realizou-se um levantamento bibliográfico sobre gestão pública, no tocante a obras públicas, estatística e pesquisa operacional para sistema organizacional, visando à modelagem numérica. A pesquisa foi baseada em metodologias quantitativas, com ênfase na pesquisa operacional para o estudo das obras públicas executadas sob a gerência da Prefeitura (PCU) da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). Para a elaboração da base de dados, foram coletados informações de obras, reformas e ampliações, executadas durante o período de 2006 a 2009, junto à Comissão Permanente de Licitação (CPL) e à Fundação de Amparo ao Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FADESP). Mediante as regressões lineares e, após as transformadas das funções, foram obtidos para o modelo prognóstico os parâmetros estatísticos: coeficiente de correlação (R), de 0,899; coeficiente de determinação (R²), de 0,808; coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R² ajustado), de 0,796; e erro padrão (Se), de 0,41. Esses parâmetros demonstram forte correlação linearizada entre as variáveis, indicando que 79,60% da variabilidade do tempo para executar uma obra pública é causada ou produzida pela variação, em conjunto, da área; do valor orçado; da capacidade técnica operacional da IFES; da capacidade operacional da empresa; da tipologia de serviço; e da estação do ano. Com os resultados obtidos, conclui-se que é possível aplicar e implementar o modelo prognóstico para execução de obras públicas, pois se obteve uma ferramenta potente em sua aplicação para as melhorias dos procedimentos administrativos, tanto na estrutura como no seu desempenho, cujo principal resultado é a previsão do tempo para execução do empreendimento público.

Modelagem do tempo de execução de obras civis: estudo de caso na Universidade Federal do Pará

Este artigo propõe a adoção de um modelo numérico prognóstico para estimar a variável "tempo de execução" para empreendimentos públicos de forma objetiva. O trabalho de campo consistiu na aplicação de métodos estatísticos para analisar dados de obras licitadas e executadas durante o período de 2006 a 2009 na Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). A análise de dados envolveu cálculos de regressões lineares e transformadas das funções. Após estratificação e tratamento inicial dos dados, os elementos adotados para construção do modelo final se restringiram a 102 obras de um total de 225 originariamente pesquisadas, resultando nos seguintes parâmetros estatísticos: coeficiente de correlação (R) de 0,899; coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,808; coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R² ajustado) de 0,796 e erro padrão (Se) de 0,41. Estes parâmetros indicam forte correlação linear entre as variáveis, indicando que 79,60% da variação do tempo para executar uma obra pública podem ser causadas pela variação, em conjunto, das variáveis área construída, custo orçado, capacidade técnica operacional do contratante, capacidade operacional da empresa, tipologia de serviço e estação do ano.

Introduction to Coding Theory for Flow Equations of Complex Systems Models

The modeling of complex dynamic systems depends on the solution of a differential equations system. Some problems appear because we do not know the mathematical expressions of the said equations. Enough numerical data of the system variables are known. The authors, think that it is very important to establish a code between the different languages to let them codify and decodify information. Coding permits us to reduce the study of some objects to others. Mathematical expressions are used to model certain variables of the system are complex, so it is convenient to define an alphabet code determining the correspondence between these equations and words in the alphabet. In this paper the authors begin with the introduction to the coding and decoding of complex structural systems modeling.

Syntactic and Semantic Relationships in Models of Complex Systems: An Ecological Case

In this paper, the authors extend and generalize the methodology based on the dynamics of systems with the use of differential equations as equations of state, allowing that first order transformed functions not only apply to the primitive or original variables, but also doing so to more complex expressions derived from them, and extending the rules that determine the generation of transformed superior to zero order (variable or primitive). Also, it is demonstrated that for all models of complex reality, there exists a complex model from the syntactic and semantic point of view. The theory is exemplified with a concrete model: MARIOLA model.

An Ecological Model for Predicting Behaviour of Mediterranean Shrublands

In order to build dynamic models for prediction and management of degraded Mediterranean forest areas was necessary to build MARIOLA model, which is a calculation computer program. This model includes the following subprograms. 1) bioshrub program, which calculates total, green and woody shrubs biomass and it establishes the time differences to calculate the growth. 2) selego program, which builds the flow equations from the experimental data. It is based on advanced procedures of statistical multiple regression. 3) VEGETATION program, which solves the state equations with Euler or Runge-Kutta integration methods. Each one of these subprograms can act as independent or as linked programs.

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.

The Functions and Regulation of Ornithine Decarboxylase

Ornithine decarboxylase (ODC) regulates the synthesis of polyamines which are involved in many cellular functions e.g. proliferation and differentiation. Due to its critical role, ODC is a tightly regulated enzyme by antizymes and antizyme inhibitors. If the regulation fails, the activity of ODC increases and may lead to malignant transformation of a cell. Increased ODC activity is found in many common cancers, including colon, prostate, and breast cancer. In a transformed cell, dynamics of the actin cytoskeleton is disturbed. A small G-protein, RhoA regulates organization of the cytoskeleton, and its overactivity increases malignant potential of the cell. The present results indicate that covalent attachment of polyamines by transglutaminase is a physiological means of regulating the activity of RhoA. The translocation of RhoA to the plasma membrane, where it exerts its activity is dependent on the presence of catalytically active ODC. As the overactivity of ODC and RhoA are implicated in cell transformation, the results provide a mechanistic explanation of the interrelationship between the polyamine metabolism and the reorganization of the actin cytoskeleton occurring in cancer cells. ODC and polyamines have also an important role in the function of central nervous system. They participate in the regulation of brain morphogenesis in embryos. In adult nervous tissue, polyamines regulate K+ and glutamate channels. K+ inward rectifying channels control membrane potentials and NMDA-type glutamate receptors (NMDAR) regulate synaptic plasticity. High ODC activity and polyamine levels are considered important in the development of ischemic brain damage and they are implicated in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer s disease (AD). A homolog of ODC was cloned from a human brain cDNA library, and several alternatively spliced variants were detected in human brain and testis. The novel protein was nevertheless devoid of ODC catalytic activity. It was subsequently found to be a novel inductor of ODC activity and polyamine synthesis, called antizyme inhibitor 2 (AZIN2). The accumulation of AZIN2 in vesicle-like formations along the axons and beneath the plasma membrane of neurons as well as in steroid hormone producing Leydig cells and luteal cells of the gonads implies that AZIN2 plays a role in secretion and vesicle trafficking. An accumulation of AZIN2 was detected also in specimens of AD brains. This increased expression of AZIN2 was specific for AD and was not found in brains with other neurodegenerative diseases including CADASIL or dementia with Lewy bodies.

Exploring the post-genomic world: Differing explanatory and manipulatory functions of post-genomic sciences

Richard Lewontin proposed that the ability of a scientific field to create a narrative for public understanding garners it social relevance. This article applies Lewontin's conceptual framework of the functions of science (manipulatory and explanatory) to compare and explain the current differences in perceived societal relevance of genetics/genomics and proteomics. We provide three examples to illustrate the social relevance and strong cultural narrative of genetics/genomics for which no counterpart exists for proteomics. We argue that the major difference between genetics/genomics and proteomics is that genomics has a strong explanatory function, due to the strong cultural narrative of heredity. Based on qualitative interviews and observations of proteomics conferences, we suggest that the nature of proteins, lack of public understanding, and theoretical complexity exacerbates this difference for proteomics. Lewontin's framework suggests that social scientists may find that omics sciences affect social relations in different ways than past analyses of genetics.

Forms and functions of inorganic carbon in the Jiaozhou Bay sediments

Inorganic carbon forms and their influencing factors, mutual transformation and contribution to carbon cycling in the Jiaozhou Bay sediments were discussed. The results show that inorganic carbon in sediments could be divided into five forms: NaCl form, NH3 center dot H2O form, NaOH form, NH2OH center dot HCl form and HCl form. Thereinto, NH2OH center dot HCl form and HCl form account for more than 70% of total inorganic carbon. There was close relationship among every form of inorganic carbon and their correlativity was clearly different with different sedimentary environment except the similar strong positive correlation among NH2OH center dot HCl form, HCl form and total inorganic carbon in all regions of the Jiaozhou Bay. All forms of inorganic carbon were influenced by organic carbon, pH, Eh, Es, nitrogen and phosphorus in sediments, but their influence had different characteristics in different regions. Every farm of inorganic carbon transformed into each other continuously during early diagenesis of sediments and the common phenomenon was that NaCl form, NH3 center dot H2O form, NaOH form and NH2OH center dot HCl form might transform into steady HCl form. NaCl form, NH3 center dot H2O form, NaOH form and NH2OH center dot HCl form could participate in carbon recycle and they are potential carbon source; HCl form may be buried for a long time in sediments, and it may be one of the final resting places of atmospheric CO2. Inorganic carbon which entered into sediments was about 4.98 x 10(10) g in the Jiaozhou Bay every year, in which about 1.47x10(10) g of inorganic carbon might be buried for a long time and about 3.51. x 10(10) g of inorganic carbon might return into seawater and take part in carbon recycling.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Beta1,4-galactosyltransferase V functions as a positive growth regulator in glioma.

beta1,4-galactosyltransferase V (GalT V; EC 2.4.1.38) can effectively galactosylate the GlcNAcbeta1-->6Man arm of the highly branched N-glycans that are characteristic of glioma. Previously, we have reported that the expression of GalT V is increased in the process of glioma. However, currently little is known about the role of GalT V in this process. In this study, the ectopic expression of GalT V could promote the invasion and survival of glioma cells and transformed astrocytes. Furthermore, decreasing the expression of GalT V in glioma cells promoted apoptosis, inhibited the invasion and migration and the ability of tumor formation in vivo, and reduced the activation of AKT. In addition, the activity of GalT V promoter could be induced by epidermal growth factor, dominant active Ras, ERK1, JNK1, and constitutively active AKT. Taken together, our results suggest that GalT V functioned as a novel glioma growth activator and might represent a novel target in glioma therapy.

Analysis procedure for calculation of electron energy distribution functions from incoherent Thomson scattering spectra

Incoherent Thomson scattering (ITS) provides a nonintrusive diagnostic for the determination of one-dimensional (1D) electron velocity distribution in plasmas. When the ITS spectrum is Gaussian its interpretation as a three-dimensional (3D) Maxwellian velocity distribution is straightforward. For more complex ITS line shapes derivation of the corresponding 3D velocity distribution and electron energy probability distribution function is more difficult. This article reviews current techniques and proposes an approach to making the transformation between a 1D velocity distribution and the corresponding 3D energy distribution. Previous approaches have either transformed the ITS spectra directly from a 1D distribution to a 3D or fitted two Gaussians assuming a Maxwellian or bi-Maxwellian distribution. Here, the measured ITS spectrum transformed into a 1D velocity distribution and the probability of finding a particle with speed within 0 and given value v is calculated. The differentiation of this probability function is shown to be the normalized electron velocity distribution function. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions

We introduce an algebraic operator framework to study discounted penalty functions in renewal risk models. For inter-arrival and claim size distributions with rational Laplace transform, the usual integral equation is transformed into a boundary value problem, which is solved by symbolic techniques. The factorization of the differential operator can be lifted to the level of boundary value problems, amounting to iteratively solving first-order problems. This leads to an explicit expression for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the penalty function.

(A) Photoregulation of DNA Functions by Cyclic Azobenzene-tethered Oligonucleotides (B) Site-specific Fluorescent Labeling of DNA using Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder Reaction between trans-Cyclooctene Derivatives and BODIPY-Tetrazine Adducts

(A) Most azobenzene-based photoswitches require UV light for photoisomerization, which limit their applications in biological systems due to possible photodamage. Cyclic azobenzene derivatives, on the other hand, can undergo cis-trans isomerization when exposed to visible light. A shortened synthetic scheme was developed for the preparation of a building block containing cyclic azobenzene and D-threoninol (cAB-Thr). trans-Cyclic azobenzene was found to thermally isomerize back to the cis-form in a temperature-dependent manner. cAB-Thr was transformed into the corresponding phosphoramidite and subsequently incorporated into oligonucleotides by solid phase synthesis. Melting temperature measurement suggested that incorporation of cis-cAB into oligonucleotides destabilizes DNA duplexes, these findings corroborate with circular dichroism measurement. Finally, Fluorescent Energy Resonance Transfer experiments indicated that trans-cAB can be accommodated in DNA duplexes. (B) Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder reactions (IEDDA) between trans-olefins and tetrazines provide a powerful alternative to existing ligation chemistries due to its fast reaction rate, bioorthogonality and mutual orthogonality with other click reactions. In this project, an attempt was pursued to synthesize trans-cyclooctene building blocks for oligonucleotide labeling by reacting with BODIPY-tetrazine. Rel-(1R-4E-pR)-cyclooct-4-enol and rel-(1R,8S,9S,4E)-Bicyclo[6.1.0]non-4-ene-9-ylmethanol were synthesized and then transformed into the corresponding propargyl ether. Subsequent Sonogashira reactions between these propargylated compounds with DMT-protected 5-iododeoxyuridine failed to give the desired products. Finally a methodology was pursued for the synthesis of BODIPY-tetrazine conjugates that will be used in future IEDDA reactions with trans-cyclooctene modified oligonucleotides.

Theileria parva-transformed T cells show enhanced resistance to Fas/Fas ligand-induced apoptosis

Lymphocyte homeostasis is regulated by mechanisms that control lymphocyte proliferation and apoptosis. Activation-induced cell death is mediated by the expression of death ligands and receptors, which, when triggered, activate an apoptotic cascade. Bovine T cells transformed by the intracellular parasite Theileria parva proliferate in an uncontrolled manner and undergo clonal expansion. They constitutively express the death receptor Fas and its ligand, FasL but do not undergo apoptosis. Upon elimination of the parasite from the host cell by treatment with a theilericidal drug, cells become increasingly sensitive to Fas/FasL-induced apoptosis. In normal T cells, the sensitivity to death receptor killing is regulated by specific inhibitor proteins. We found that anti-apoptotic proteins such as cellular (c)-FLIP, which functions as a catalytically inactive form of caspase-8, and X-chromosome-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (IAP) as well as c-IAP, which can block downstream executioner caspases, are constitutively expressed in T. parva-transformed T cells. Expression of these proteins is rapidly down-regulated upon parasite elimination. Antiapoptotic proteins of the Bcl-2 family such as Bcl-2 and Bcl-x(L) are also expressed but, in contrast to c-FLIP, c-IAP, and X-chromosome-linked IAP, do not appear to be tightly regulated by the presence of the parasite. Finally, we show that, in contrast to the situation in tumor cells, the phosphoinositide 3-kinase/Akt pathway is not essential for c-FLIP expression. Our findings indicate that by inducing the expression of antiapoptotic proteins, T. parva allows the host cell to escape destruction by homeostatic mechanisms that would normally be activated to limit the continuous expansion of a T cell population.