Modelagem do “tempo de execução” de obras civis: estudo de caso na Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA)

O objetivo desta pesquisa é propor um modelo numérico prognóstico que trate a variável “tempo” de forma eficiente e eficaz, com a finalidade de atender às reais necessidades dos clientes-usuários e à sociedade em geral. Todavia, realizou-se um levantamento bibliográfico sobre gestão pública, no tocante a obras públicas, estatística e pesquisa operacional para sistema organizacional, visando à modelagem numérica. A pesquisa foi baseada em metodologias quantitativas, com ênfase na pesquisa operacional para o estudo das obras públicas executadas sob a gerência da Prefeitura (PCU) da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). Para a elaboração da base de dados, foram coletados informações de obras, reformas e ampliações, executadas durante o período de 2006 a 2009, junto à Comissão Permanente de Licitação (CPL) e à Fundação de Amparo ao Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FADESP). Mediante as regressões lineares e, após as transformadas das funções, foram obtidos para o modelo prognóstico os parâmetros estatísticos: coeficiente de correlação (R), de 0,899; coeficiente de determinação (R²), de 0,808; coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R² ajustado), de 0,796; e erro padrão (Se), de 0,41. Esses parâmetros demonstram forte correlação linearizada entre as variáveis, indicando que 79,60% da variabilidade do tempo para executar uma obra pública é causada ou produzida pela variação, em conjunto, da área; do valor orçado; da capacidade técnica operacional da IFES; da capacidade operacional da empresa; da tipologia de serviço; e da estação do ano. Com os resultados obtidos, conclui-se que é possível aplicar e implementar o modelo prognóstico para execução de obras públicas, pois se obteve uma ferramenta potente em sua aplicação para as melhorias dos procedimentos administrativos, tanto na estrutura como no seu desempenho, cujo principal resultado é a previsão do tempo para execução do empreendimento público.

Modelagem do tempo de execução de obras civis: estudo de caso na Universidade Federal do Pará

Este artigo propõe a adoção de um modelo numérico prognóstico para estimar a variável "tempo de execução" para empreendimentos públicos de forma objetiva. O trabalho de campo consistiu na aplicação de métodos estatísticos para analisar dados de obras licitadas e executadas durante o período de 2006 a 2009 na Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). A análise de dados envolveu cálculos de regressões lineares e transformadas das funções. Após estratificação e tratamento inicial dos dados, os elementos adotados para construção do modelo final se restringiram a 102 obras de um total de 225 originariamente pesquisadas, resultando nos seguintes parâmetros estatísticos: coeficiente de correlação (R) de 0,899; coeficiente de determinação (R²) de 0,808; coeficiente de determinação ajustado (R² ajustado) de 0,796 e erro padrão (Se) de 0,41. Estes parâmetros indicam forte correlação linear entre as variáveis, indicando que 79,60% da variação do tempo para executar uma obra pública podem ser causadas pela variação, em conjunto, das variáveis área construída, custo orçado, capacidade técnica operacional do contratante, capacidade operacional da empresa, tipologia de serviço e estação do ano.

Introduction to Coding Theory for Flow Equations of Complex Systems Models

The modeling of complex dynamic systems depends on the solution of a differential equations system. Some problems appear because we do not know the mathematical expressions of the said equations. Enough numerical data of the system variables are known. The authors, think that it is very important to establish a code between the different languages to let them codify and decodify information. Coding permits us to reduce the study of some objects to others. Mathematical expressions are used to model certain variables of the system are complex, so it is convenient to define an alphabet code determining the correspondence between these equations and words in the alphabet. In this paper the authors begin with the introduction to the coding and decoding of complex structural systems modeling.

Syntactic and Semantic Relationships in Models of Complex Systems: An Ecological Case

In this paper, the authors extend and generalize the methodology based on the dynamics of systems with the use of differential equations as equations of state, allowing that first order transformed functions not only apply to the primitive or original variables, but also doing so to more complex expressions derived from them, and extending the rules that determine the generation of transformed superior to zero order (variable or primitive). Also, it is demonstrated that for all models of complex reality, there exists a complex model from the syntactic and semantic point of view. The theory is exemplified with a concrete model: MARIOLA model.

An Ecological Model for Predicting Behaviour of Mediterranean Shrublands

In order to build dynamic models for prediction and management of degraded Mediterranean forest areas was necessary to build MARIOLA model, which is a calculation computer program. This model includes the following subprograms. 1) bioshrub program, which calculates total, green and woody shrubs biomass and it establishes the time differences to calculate the growth. 2) selego program, which builds the flow equations from the experimental data. It is based on advanced procedures of statistical multiple regression. 3) VEGETATION program, which solves the state equations with Euler or Runge-Kutta integration methods. Each one of these subprograms can act as independent or as linked programs.

Chebanov law and Vakar formula in mathematical models of complex systems

Ecological models written in a mathematical language L(M) or model language, with a given style or methodology can be considered as a text. It is possible to apply statistical linguistic laws and the experimental results demonstrate that the behaviour of a mathematical model is the same of any literary text of any natural language. A text has the following characteristics: (a) the variables, its transformed functions and parameters are the lexic units or LUN of ecological models; (b) the syllables are constituted by a LUN, or a chain of them, separated by operating or ordering LUNs; (c) the flow equations are words; and (d) the distribution of words (LUM and CLUN) according to their lengths is based on a Poisson distribution, the Chebanov's law. It is founded on Vakar's formula, that is calculated likewise the linguistic entropy for L(M). We will apply these ideas over practical examples using MARIOLA model. In this paper it will be studied the problem of the lengths of the simple lexic units composed lexic units and words of text models, expressing these lengths in number of the primitive symbols, and syllables. The use of these linguistic laws renders it possible to indicate the degree of information given by an ecological model.

A method for the design of MRI radiofrequency coils based on triangular and pulse basis functions

This paper presents a numerical technique for the design of an RF coil for asymmetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) systems. The formulation is based on an inverse approach where the cylindrical surface currents are expressed in terms of a combination of sub-domain basis functions: triangular and pulse functions. With the homogeneous transverse magnetic field specified in a spherical region, a functional method is applied to obtain the unknown current coefficients. The current distribution is then transformed to a conductor pattern by use of a stream function technique. Preliminary MR images acquired using a prototype RF coil are presented and validate the design method. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions

We introduce an algebraic operator framework to study discounted penalty functions in renewal risk models. For inter-arrival and claim size distributions with rational Laplace transform, the usual integral equation is transformed into a boundary value problem, which is solved by symbolic techniques. The factorization of the differential operator can be lifted to the level of boundary value problems, amounting to iteratively solving first-order problems. This leads to an explicit expression for the Gerber-Shiu function in terms of the penalty function.

Theileria parva-transformed T cells show enhanced resistance to Fas/Fas ligand-induced apoptosis.

Lymphocyte homeostasis is regulated by mechanisms that control lymphocyte proliferation and apoptosis. Activation-induced cell death is mediated by the expression of death ligands and receptors, which, when triggered, activate an apoptotic cascade. Bovine T cells transformed by the intracellular parasite Theileria parva proliferate in an uncontrolled manner and undergo clonal expansion. They constitutively express the death receptor Fas and its ligand, FasL but do not undergo apoptosis. Upon elimination of the parasite from the host cell by treatment with a theilericidal drug, cells become increasingly sensitive to Fas/FasL-induced apoptosis. In normal T cells, the sensitivity to death receptor killing is regulated by specific inhibitor proteins. We found that anti-apoptotic proteins such as cellular (c)-FLIP, which functions as a catalytically inactive form of caspase-8, and X-chromosome-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (IAP) as well as c-IAP, which can block downstream executioner caspases, are constitutively expressed in T. parva-transformed T cells. Expression of these proteins is rapidly down-regulated upon parasite elimination. Antiapoptotic proteins of the Bcl-2 family such as Bcl-2 and Bcl-x(L) are also expressed but, in contrast to c-FLIP, c-IAP, and X-chromosome-linked IAP, do not appear to be tightly regulated by the presence of the parasite. Finally, we show that, in contrast to the situation in tumor cells, the phosphoinositide 3-kinase/Akt pathway is not essential for c-FLIP expression. Our findings indicate that by inducing the expression of antiapoptotic proteins, T. parva allows the host cell to escape destruction by homeostatic mechanisms that would normally be activated to limit the continuous expansion of a T cell population.

(A) Photoregulation of DNA Functions by Cyclic Azobenzene-tethered Oligonucleotides (B) Site-specific Fluorescent Labeling of DNA using Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder Reaction between trans-Cyclooctene Derivatives and BODIPY-Tetrazine Adducts

(A) Most azobenzene-based photoswitches require UV light for photoisomerization, which limit their applications in biological systems due to possible photodamage. Cyclic azobenzene derivatives, on the other hand, can undergo cis-trans isomerization when exposed to visible light. A shortened synthetic scheme was developed for the preparation of a building block containing cyclic azobenzene and D-threoninol (cAB-Thr). trans-Cyclic azobenzene was found to thermally isomerize back to the cis-form in a temperature-dependent manner. cAB-Thr was transformed into the corresponding phosphoramidite and subsequently incorporated into oligonucleotides by solid phase synthesis. Melting temperature measurement suggested that incorporation of cis-cAB into oligonucleotides destabilizes DNA duplexes, these findings corroborate with circular dichroism measurement. Finally, Fluorescent Energy Resonance Transfer experiments indicated that trans-cAB can be accommodated in DNA duplexes. (B) Inverse Electron Demand Diels-Alder reactions (IEDDA) between trans-olefins and tetrazines provide a powerful alternative to existing ligation chemistries due to its fast reaction rate, bioorthogonality and mutual orthogonality with other click reactions. In this project, an attempt was pursued to synthesize trans-cyclooctene building blocks for oligonucleotide labeling by reacting with BODIPY-tetrazine. Rel-(1R-4E-pR)-cyclooct-4-enol and rel-(1R,8S,9S,4E)-Bicyclo[6.1.0]non-4-ene-9-ylmethanol were synthesized and then transformed into the corresponding propargyl ether. Subsequent Sonogashira reactions between these propargylated compounds with DMT-protected 5-iododeoxyuridine failed to give the desired products. Finally a methodology was pursued for the synthesis of BODIPY-tetrazine conjugates that will be used in future IEDDA reactions with trans-cyclooctene modified oligonucleotides.

Theileria parva-transformed T cells show enhanced resistance to Fas/Fas ligand-induced apoptosis

Lymphocyte homeostasis is regulated by mechanisms that control lymphocyte proliferation and apoptosis. Activation-induced cell death is mediated by the expression of death ligands and receptors, which, when triggered, activate an apoptotic cascade. Bovine T cells transformed by the intracellular parasite Theileria parva proliferate in an uncontrolled manner and undergo clonal expansion. They constitutively express the death receptor Fas and its ligand, FasL but do not undergo apoptosis. Upon elimination of the parasite from the host cell by treatment with a theilericidal drug, cells become increasingly sensitive to Fas/FasL-induced apoptosis. In normal T cells, the sensitivity to death receptor killing is regulated by specific inhibitor proteins. We found that anti-apoptotic proteins such as cellular (c)-FLIP, which functions as a catalytically inactive form of caspase-8, and X-chromosome-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (IAP) as well as c-IAP, which can block downstream executioner caspases, are constitutively expressed in T. parva-transformed T cells. Expression of these proteins is rapidly down-regulated upon parasite elimination. Antiapoptotic proteins of the Bcl-2 family such as Bcl-2 and Bcl-x(L) are also expressed but, in contrast to c-FLIP, c-IAP, and X-chromosome-linked IAP, do not appear to be tightly regulated by the presence of the parasite. Finally, we show that, in contrast to the situation in tumor cells, the phosphoinositide 3-kinase/Akt pathway is not essential for c-FLIP expression. Our findings indicate that by inducing the expression of antiapoptotic proteins, T. parva allows the host cell to escape destruction by homeostatic mechanisms that would normally be activated to limit the continuous expansion of a T cell population.

The nuclear factor-kappaB and p53 pathways function independently in primary cells and transformed fibroblasts responding to genotoxic damage

With nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-kappaB) and p53 functions generally having disparate outcomes for cell survival and cell division, understanding how these pathways are coordinated following a common activation signal such as DNA damage has important implications for cancer therapy. Conflicting reports concerning NF-kappaB and p53 interplay in different cell line models prompted a reexamination of this issue using mouse primary thymocytes and embryonic fibroblasts, plus fibroblasts transformed by E1A12S. Here, we report that following the treatment of these cells with a range of stress stimuli, p53 and NF-kappaB were found to regulate cell cycling and survival independently.

NFkappaB and STAT binding elements participate in regulation of MUC1 expression in normal and transformed mammary epithelial cells

The MUC1 gene encodes a transmembrane mucin glycoprotein that is overexpressed in several cancers of epithelial origin, including those of breast, pancreas, lung, ovary, and colon. Functions of MUC1 include protection of mucosal epithelium, modulation of cellular adhesion, and signal transduction. Aberrantly increased expression of MUC1 in cancer cells promotes tumor progression through adaptation of these functions. Some regulatory elements participating in MUC1 transcription have been described, but the mechanisms responsible for overexpression are largely unknown. A region of MUC1 5′ flanking sequence containing two conserved potential cytokine response elements, an NFκB site at −589/−580 and a STAT binding element (SBE) at −503/−495, has been implicated in high level expression in breast and pancreatic cancer cell lines. Persistent stimulation by proinflammatory cytokines may contribute to increased MUC1 transcription by tumor cells. ^ T47D breast cancer cells and normal human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) were used to determine the roles of the κB site and SBE in basal and stimulated expression of MUC1. Treatment of T47D cells and HMEC with interferon-γ (IFNγ) alone enhanced MUC1 expression at the level of transcription, and the effect of IFNγ was further stimulated by tumor necrosis factor-α (TNFα). MUC1 responsiveness to these cytokines was modest in T47D cells but clearly evident in HMEC. Transient transfection of T47D cells with mutant MUC1 promoter constructs revealed that the κB site at −589/−580 and the SBE at −503/−495 and were required for cooperative stimulation by TNFα and IFNγ. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSA) revealed that the synergy was mediated not by cooperative binding of transcription factors but by the independent actions of STAT1α and NFκB p65 on their respective binding sites. Independent mutations in the κB site and SBE abrogated cytokine responsiveness and reduced basal MUC1 promoter activity by 45–50%. However, only the κB site appeared to be constitutively activated in T47D cells, in part by NFκB p65. These findings implicate two cytokine response elements in the 5 ′ flanking region of MUC1, specifically a κB site and a STAT binding element, in overexpression of MUC1 in breast cancer cells. ^

Repression of {\it neu} oncogene by E1A: Mechanisms and biological functions

The potential effects of the E1A gene products on the promoter activities of neu were investigated. Transcription of the neu oncogene was found to be strongly repressed by the E1A gene products and this requires that conserved region 2 of the E1A proteins. The target for E1A repression was localized within a 140 base pair (bp) DNA fragment in the upstream region of the neu promoter. To further study if this transcriptional repression of neu by E1A can inhibit the transforming ability of the neu transformed cells, the E1A gene was introduced into the neu oncogene transformed B104-1-1 cells and developed B-E1A cell lines that express E1A proteins. These B-E1A stable transfectants have reduced transforming activity compared to the parental B104-1-1 cell line and we conclude that E1A can suppress the transformed phenotypes of the neu oncogene transformed cells via transcriptional repression of neu.^ To study the effects of E1A on metastasis, we first introduced the mutation-activated rat neu oncogene into 3T3 cells and showed that both the neu oncogene transformed NIH3T3 cells and Swiss Webster 3T3 cells exhibited metastatic properties in vitro and in vivo, while their parental 3T3 cells did not. Additionally, the neu-specific monoclonal antibody 7.16.4, which can down regulate neu-encoded p185 protein, effectively reduced the metastatic properties induced by neu. To investigate if E1A can reduce the metastatic potential of neu-transformed cells, we also compared the metastatic properties of B-E1A cell lines and B104-1-1 cell. B-E1A cell lines showed reduced invasiveness and lung colonization than the parental neu transformed B104-1-1 cells. We conclude that E1A gene products also have inhibitory effect on the metastatic phenotypes of the neu oncogene transformed cells.^ The product of human retinoblastoma (RB) susceptibility gene has been shown to complex with E1A gene products and is speculated to regulate gene expression. We therefore investigated in E1A-RB interaction might be involved in the regulation of neu oncogene expression. We found that the RB gene product can decrease the E1A-mediated repression of neu oncogene and the E1A binding region of the RB protein is required for the derepression function. ^

Loss of transformed phenotype in cancer cells by overexpression of the uteroglobin gene

Uteroglobin (UG) is a multifunctional, secreted protein that has receptor-mediated functions. The human UG (hUG) gene is mapped to chromosome 11q12.2–13.1, a region frequently rearranged or deleted in many cancers. Although high levels of hUG expression are characteristic of the mucosal epithelia of many organs, hUG expression is either drastically reduced or totally absent in adenocarcinomas and in viral-transformed epithelial cells derived from the same organs. In agreement with these findings, in an ongoing study to evaluate the effects of aging on UG-knockout mice, 16/16 animals developed malignant tumors, whereas the wild-type littermates (n = 25) remained apparently healthy even after 1½ years. In the present investigation, we sought to determine the effects of induced-expression of hUG in human cancer cells by transfecting several cell lines derived from adenocarcinomas of various organs with an hUG-cDNA construct. We demonstrate that induced hUG expression reverses at least two of the most important characteristics of the transformed phenotype (i.e., anchorage-independent growth on soft agar and extracellular matrix invasion) of only those cancer cells that also express the hUG receptor. Similarly, treatment of the nontransfected, receptor-positive adenocarcinoma cells with purified recombinant hUG yielded identical results. Taken together, these data define receptor-mediated, autocrine and paracrine pathways through which hUG reverses the transformed phenotype of cancer cells and consequently, may have tumor suppressor-like effects.