The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Predicting delay reductions from freeway traffic diversion for incident management

Traffic incidents are a major source of traffic congestion on freeways. Freeway traffic diversion using pre-planned alternate routes has been used as a strategy to reduce traffic delays due to major traffic incidents. However, it is not always beneficial to divert traffic when an incident occurs. Route diversion may adversely impact traffic on the alternate routes and may not result in an overall benefit. This dissertation research attempts to apply Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) techniques to predict the percent of delay reduction from route diversion to help determine whether traffic should be diverted under given conditions. The DYNASMART-P mesoscopic traffic simulation model was applied to generate simulated data that were used to develop the ANN and SVR models. A sample network that comes with the DYNASMART-P package was used as the base simulation network. A combination of different levels of incident duration, capacity lost, percent of drivers diverted, VMS (variable message sign) messaging duration, and network congestion was simulated to represent different incident scenarios. The resulting percent of delay reduction, average speed, and queue length from each scenario were extracted from the simulation output. The ANN and SVR models were then calibrated for percent of delay reduction as a function of all of the simulated input and output variables. The results show that both the calibrated ANN and SVR models, when applied to the same location used to generate the calibration data, were able to predict delay reduction with a relatively high accuracy in terms of mean square error (MSE) and regression correlation. It was also found that the performance of the ANN model was superior to that of the SVR model. Likewise, when the models were applied to a new location, only the ANN model could produce comparatively good delay reduction predictions under high network congestion level.

Development of prediction models for freeway incident durations using data mining techniques

The nation's freeway systems are becoming increasingly congested. A major contribution to traffic congestion on freeways is due to traffic incidents. Traffic incidents are non-recurring events such as accidents or stranded vehicles that cause a temporary roadway capacity reduction, and they can account for as much as 60 percent of all traffic congestion on freeways. One major freeway incident management strategy involves diverting traffic to avoid incident locations by relaying timely information through Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) devices such as dynamic message signs or real-time traveler information systems. The decision to divert traffic depends foremost on the expected duration of an incident, which is difficult to predict. In addition, the duration of an incident is affected by many contributing factors. Determining and understanding these factors can help the process of identifying and developing better strategies to reduce incident durations and alleviate traffic congestion. A number of research studies have attempted to develop models to predict incident durations, yet with limited success. ^ This dissertation research attempts to improve on this previous effort by applying data mining techniques to a comprehensive incident database maintained by the District 4 ITS Office of the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). Two categories of incident duration prediction models were developed: "offline" models designed for use in the performance evaluation of incident management programs, and "online" models for real-time prediction of incident duration to aid in the decision making of traffic diversion in the event of an ongoing incident. Multiple data mining analysis techniques were applied and evaluated in the research. The multiple linear regression analysis and decision tree based method were applied to develop the offline models, and the rule-based method and a tree algorithm called M5P were used to develop the online models. ^ The results show that the models in general can achieve high prediction accuracy within acceptable time intervals of the actual durations. The research also identifies some new contributing factors that have not been examined in past studies. As part of the research effort, software code was developed to implement the models in the existing software system of District 4 FDOT for actual applications. ^

Effect of freeway corridor attributes upon motorist diversion responses to real-time travel time information.

Texas Department of Transportation, Austin

Diversion and corridor control systems in Western Europe /

Preprint of IRF report, issued June 1977.

Epicardial And Pericardial Fat In Type 2 Diabetes: Favourable Effects Of Biliopancreatic Diversion.

Ectopic fat is often identified in obese subjects who are susceptible to the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The ectopic fat favours the decrease in insulin sensitivity (IS) and adiponectin levels. We aimed to evaluate the effect of biliopancreatic diversion (BPD) on the accumulation of ectopic fat, adiponectin levels and IS in obese with T2DM. A nonrandomised controlled study was performed on sixty-eight women: 19 lean-control (23.0 ± 2.2 kg/m(2)) and 18 obese-control (35.0 ± 4.8 kg/m(2)) with normal glucose tolerance and 31 obese with T2DM (36.3 ± 3.7 kg/m(2)). Of the 31 diabetic women, 20 underwent BPD and were reassessed 1 month and 12 months after surgery. The subcutaneous adipose tissue, visceral adipose tissue, epicardial adipose tissue and pericardial adipose tissue were evaluated by ultrasonography. The IS was assessed by a hyperglycaemic clamp, applying the minimal model of glucose. One month after surgery, there was a reduction in visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissues, whereas epicardial and pericardial adipose tissues exhibited significant reduction at the 12-month assessment (p < 0.01). Adiponectin levels and IS were normalised 1 month after surgery, resembling lean-control values and elevated above the obese-control values (p < 0.01). After 12 months, the improvement in IS and adiponectin was maintained, and 17 of the 20 operated patients exhibited fasting glucose and glycated haemoglobin within the normal range. After BPD, positive physiological adaptations occurred in grade I and II obese patients with T2DM. These adaptations relate to the restoration of IS and decreased adiposopathy and explain the acute (1 month) and chronic (12 months) improvements in the glycaemic control.

Recovery Of The Incretin Effect In Type 2 Diabetic Patients After Biliopancreatic Diversion.

Context: Bariatric surgery often results in remission of the diabetic state in obese patients. Increased incretin effect seems to play an important role in the glycemic improvements after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, but the impact of biliopancreatic diversion (BPD) remains unexplored. Objective: To elucidate the effect of BPD on the incretin effect and its interplay with beta-cell function and insulin sensitivity (IS) in obese subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Design, Setting and Patients: Twenty-three women were studied: a control group of 13 lean, normal glucose-tolerant women (lean NGT) studied once and 10 obese patients with T2DM studied before, 1 and 12 months after BPD. Intervention: The ObeseT2DM group underwent BPD. Main Outcome Measures: The change in incretin effect as measured by the isoglycemic intravenous glucose infusion test. Secondary outcomes encompassed IS and beta-cell function. Results: At baseline, the incretin effect was lower in obese T2DM compared to lean NGT (p<0.05). One month after BPD, the incretin effect was not changed, but at 12 months it reached the level of the lean NGT group (p>0.05). IS improved (p<0.05) 1 month after BPD and at 12 months it resembled the levels of the lean NGT group. Insulin secretory rate and beta-cell glucose sensitivity increased after BPD and achieved levels similar to lean NGT group 1 month after BPD and even higher levels at 12 months (p<0.05). Conclusions: BPD has no acute impact on the reduced incretin effect, but 12 months after surgery the incretin effect normalizes alongside normalization of glucose control, IS and beta-cell function.

Traffic-Related Air Pollution and Perinatal Mortality: A Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND: Ambient levels of air pollution may affect the health of children, as indicated by studies of infant and perinatal mortality. Scientific evidence has also correlated low birth weight and preterm birth, which are important determinants of perinatal death, with air pollution. However, most of these studies used ambient concentrations measured at monitoring sites, which may not consider differential exposure to pollutants found at elevated concentrations near heavy-traffic roadways. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to examine the association between traffic-related pollution and perinatal mortality. METHODS: We used the information collected for a case-control study conducted in 14 districts in the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil, regarding risk factors for perinatal deaths. We geocoded the residential addresses of cases (fetal and early neonatal deaths) and controls (children who survived the 28th day of life) and calculated a distance-weighted traffic density (DWTD) measure considering all roads contained in a buffer surrounding these homes. RESULTS: Logistic regression revealed a gradient of increasing risk of early neonatal death with higher exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Mothers exposed to the highest quartile of the DWTD compared with those less exposed exhibited approximately 50% increased risk (adjusted odds ratio = 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-3.19). Associations for fetal mortality were less consistent. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that motor vehicle exhaust exposures may be a risk factor for perinatal mortality.

Characterization of Yeast Extracellular Vesicles: Evidence for the Participation of Different Pathways of Cellular Traffic in Vesicle Biogenesis

Background: Extracellular vesicles in yeast cells are involved in the molecular traffic across the cell wall. In yeast pathogens, these vesicles have been implicated in the transport of proteins, lipids, polysaccharide and pigments to the extracellular space. Cellular pathways required for the biogenesis of yeast extracellular vesicles are largely unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings: We characterized extracellular vesicle production in wild type (WT) and mutant strains of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae using transmission electron microscopy in combination with light scattering analysis, lipid extraction and proteomics. WT cells and mutants with defective expression of Sec4p, a secretory vesicle-associated Rab GTPase essential for Golgi-derived exocytosis, or Snf7p, which is involved in multivesicular body (MVB) formation, were analyzed in parallel. Bilayered vesicles with diameters at the 100-300 nm range were found in extracellular fractions from yeast cultures. Proteomic analysis of vesicular fractions from the cells aforementioned and additional mutants with defects in conventional secretion pathways (sec1-1, fusion of Golgi-derived exocytic vesicles with the plasma membrane; bos1-1, vesicle targeting to the Golgi complex) or MVB functionality (vps23, late endosomal trafficking) revealed a complex and interrelated protein collection. Semi-quantitative analysis of protein abundance revealed that mutations in both MVB- and Golgi-derived pathways affected the composition of yeast extracellular vesicles, but none abrogated vesicle production. Lipid analysis revealed that mutants with defects in Golgi-related components of the secretory pathway had slower vesicle release kinetics, as inferred from intracellular accumulation of sterols and reduced detection of these lipids in vesicle fractions in comparison with WT cells. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that both conventional and unconventional pathways of secretion are required for biogenesis of extracellular vesicles, which demonstrate the complexity of this process in the biology of yeast cells.

Connection Admission Control for a WDM Optical Network Based on Traffic Monitoring and Bandwidth Release

We proposed a connection admission control (CAC) to monitor the traffic in a multi-rate WDM optical network. The CAC searches for the shortest path connecting source and destination nodes, assigns wavelengths with enough bandwidth to serve the requests, supervises the traffic in the most required nodes, and if needed activates a reserved wavelength to release bandwidth according to traffic demand. We used a scale-free network topology, which includes highly connected nodes ( hubs), to enhance the monitoring procedure. Numerical results obtained from computational simulations show improved network performance evaluated in terms of blocking probability.

Performance analysis of an optical network employing waveband and traffic grooming

This paper analyses an optical network architecture composed by an arrangement of nodes equipped with multi-granular optical cross-connects (MG-OXCs) in addition to the usual optical cross-connects (OXCs). Then, selected network nodes can perform both waveband as well as traffic grooming operations and our goal is to assess the improvement on network performance brought by these additional capabilities. Specifically, the influence of the MG-OXC multi-granularity on the blocking probability is evaluated for 16 classes of service over a network based on the NSFNet topology. A mechanism of fairness in bandwidth capacity is also added to the connection admission control to manage the blocking probabilities of all kind of bandwidth requirements. Comprehensive computational simulation are carried out to compare eight distinct node architectures, showing that an adequate combination of waveband and single-wavelength ports of the MG-OXCs and OXCs allow a more efficient operation of a WDM optical network carrying multi-rate traffic.

A safety assessment methodology applied to CNS/ATM-based air traffic control system

In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PCJ River Basins` Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

A dynamic systems simulation model of water resources was developed as a tool to help analyze alternatives to water resources management for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Water Basins (RB-PCJ), and used to run six 50-year simulations from 2004 to 2054. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load by several consumers. Six runs were performed using a constant mean precipitation value, changing water supply and demand and different volumes diverted from RB-PCJ to RB-Alto Tiet. For the Business as Usual scenario, the Sustainability Index went from 0.44 in 2004 to 0.20 by 2054. The Water Sustainability Index changed from 74% in 2004 to 131% by 2054. The Falkenmark Index changed from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) by 2054. We concluded that sanitation is one of the major problems for the PCJ River Basins.

An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.