Persistence characteristics in financial prices: evidence from the portuguese stock market returns

The objective of this article is to provide additional knowledge to the discussion of long-term memory, leaning over the behavior of the main Portuguese stock index. The first four moments are calculated using time windows of increasing size and sliding time windows of fixed size equal to 50 days and suggest that daily returns are non-ergodic and non-stationary. Seeming that the series is best described by a fractional Brownian motion approach, we use the rescaled-range analysis (R/S) and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The findings indicate evidence of long term memory in the form of persistence. This evidence of fractal structure suggests that the market is subject to greater predictability and contradicts the efficient market hypothesis in its weak form. This raises issues regarding theoretical modeling of asset pricing. In addition, we carried out a more localized (in time) study to identify the evolution of the degree of long-term dependency over time using windows 200-days and 400-days. The results show a switching feature in the index, from persistent to anti-persistent, quite evident from 2010.

Relating Dependent Terms in Information Retrieval

Les moteurs de recherche font partie de notre vie quotidienne. Actuellement, plus d’un tiers de la population mondiale utilise l’Internet. Les moteurs de recherche leur permettent de trouver rapidement les informations ou les produits qu'ils veulent. La recherche d'information (IR) est le fondement de moteurs de recherche modernes. Les approches traditionnelles de recherche d'information supposent que les termes d'indexation sont indépendants. Pourtant, les termes qui apparaissent dans le même contexte sont souvent dépendants. L’absence de la prise en compte de ces dépendances est une des causes de l’introduction de bruit dans le résultat (résultat non pertinents). Certaines études ont proposé d’intégrer certains types de dépendance, tels que la proximité, la cooccurrence, la contiguïté et de la dépendance grammaticale. Dans la plupart des cas, les modèles de dépendance sont construits séparément et ensuite combinés avec le modèle traditionnel de mots avec une importance constante. Par conséquent, ils ne peuvent pas capturer correctement la dépendance variable et la force de dépendance. Par exemple, la dépendance entre les mots adjacents "Black Friday" est plus importante que celle entre les mots "road constructions". Dans cette thèse, nous étudions différentes approches pour capturer les relations des termes et de leurs forces de dépendance. Nous avons proposé des méthodes suivantes: ─ Nous réexaminons l'approche de combinaison en utilisant différentes unités d'indexation pour la RI monolingue en chinois et la RI translinguistique entre anglais et chinois. En plus d’utiliser des mots, nous étudions la possibilité d'utiliser bi-gramme et uni-gramme comme unité de traduction pour le chinois. Plusieurs modèles de traduction sont construits pour traduire des mots anglais en uni-grammes, bi-grammes et mots chinois avec un corpus parallèle. Une requête en anglais est ensuite traduite de plusieurs façons, et un score classement est produit avec chaque traduction. Le score final de classement combine tous ces types de traduction. Nous considérons la dépendance entre les termes en utilisant la théorie d’évidence de Dempster-Shafer. Une occurrence d'un fragment de texte (de plusieurs mots) dans un document est considérée comme représentant l'ensemble de tous les termes constituants. La probabilité est assignée à un tel ensemble de termes plutôt qu’a chaque terme individuel. Au moment d’évaluation de requête, cette probabilité est redistribuée aux termes de la requête si ces derniers sont différents. Cette approche nous permet d'intégrer les relations de dépendance entre les termes. Nous proposons un modèle discriminant pour intégrer les différentes types de dépendance selon leur force et leur utilité pour la RI. Notamment, nous considérons la dépendance de contiguïté et de cooccurrence à de différentes distances, c’est-à-dire les bi-grammes et les paires de termes dans une fenêtre de 2, 4, 8 et 16 mots. Le poids d’un bi-gramme ou d’une paire de termes dépendants est déterminé selon un ensemble des caractères, en utilisant la régression SVM. Toutes les méthodes proposées sont évaluées sur plusieurs collections en anglais et/ou chinois, et les résultats expérimentaux montrent que ces méthodes produisent des améliorations substantielles sur l'état de l'art.

How resource rich countries attract foreign direct investments: a study of Western Asian countries and strategies of industrialization and diversification

Fuel is a self-depleting resource and long term dependency on this commodity alone will not suffice. An export trade oriented approach can lead to faster industrialization while diversification leads to economic sustainable growth. This research seeks to understand how countries compete for foreign direct investments, and how certain activities have the most impact in the competitive global marketplace. Research suggests that when companies decide to invest abroad, they seek only to find countries that facilitate their strategic objectives. The results conclude with appropriate levels of government accountability, credibility and visibility with the private sector, foreign direct investment is attracted by policy advocacy and policy reform. By reviewing countries such as United Arab Emirates in direct comparison to Western Asian countries, including Kuwait and Iraq with high levels of fuel exports, along with Qatar with optimistic marketplace indicators and plentitude of skills and capabilities – research seems to suggest that despite high capabilities and attractive GDP, promotional investment activities yield the highest returns using policy advocacy and reform.

Nonlinear optimization method for short-term hydro scheduling considering head-dependency

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.

Long-term disability after first-ever stroke and related prognostic factors in the Perth Community Stroke Study, 1989-1990

Background and Purpose-Few reliable estimates of the long-term functional outcome after stroke are available. This population-based study aimed to describe disability, dependency, and related independent prognostic factors at 5 years after,a first-ever stroke in patients in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-All individuals with a suspected acute stroke who were resident in a geographically defined region (population, 138 708) of Perth, Western Australia, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria over a period of 18 months in 1989 to 1990. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 and 12 months and 5 years after the index event. Results-There were 370 cases of first-ever stroke, and 277 patients survived to 30 days. Of these early survivors, 152 (55%) were alive at 5 years, and among those who were neither institutionalized (n=146) nor disabled (n=129) at the time of their stroke, 21 (14%) were institutionalized in a nursing home, and 47 (36%) were disabled. The most important predictors of death or disability at 5 years were increasing age, baseline disability defined by a Barthel Index score of <20/20 (odds ratio [OR], 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.7 to 14), moderate hemiparesis (OR, 2.7. 95% CI, 1.1 to 6.2), severe hemiparesis (OR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 19), and recurrent stroke (OR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.0 to 30). A low level of activity before the stroke was a significant predictor of institutionalization, and subsequent recurrent stroke was a consistent, independent predictor of institutionalization, disability, and death or institutionalization, increasing the odds of each of these 3 adverse outcomes by 5- to 15-fold. Conclusions-Among 30-day survivors of first-ever stroke, about half survive 5 years; of survivors, one third remain disabled, and I in 7 are in permanent institutional care. The major modifiable predictors of poor long-term outcome are a low level of activity before the stroke and subsequent recurrent stroke. Efforts to increase physical activity among the elderly and to prevent recurrent stroke in survivors of a first stroke are likely to reduce the long-term burden of cerebrovascular disease.

Long-term nutritional assessment of patients with severe short bowel syndrome managed with home enteral nutrition and oral intake

Background: Parenteral nutrition (PN) is used to control the nutritional state after severe intestinal resections. Whenever possible, enteral nutrition (EN) is used to promote intestinal rehabilitation and reduce PN dependency. Our aim is to verify whether EN + oral intake (01) in severe short bowel syndrome (SBS) surgical adult patients can maintain adequate nutritional status in the long term. Methods: This longitudinal retrospective study included 10 patients followed for 7 post-operative years. Body mass index (BMI), percentage of involuntary loss of usual body weight (UWL), free fat mass (FFM), and fat mass (FM) composition assessed by bioelectric impedance, and laboratory tests were evaluated at 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 months after surgery. Energy and protein offered in HPN and at long term by HEN+ oral intake (01), was evaluated at the same periods. The statistical model of generalized estimating equations with p <0,05 was used. Results: With long term EN + 01 there was a progressive increase in the UWL, a decrease in BMI, FFM, and FM (p < 0,05). PN weaning was possible in eight patients. Infection due to central venous catheter (CVC) contamination was the most common complication (1.2 episodes CVC/patient/year). There was an increase in energy and protein intake supply provided by HEN+OI (p <0.05). All patients survived for at least 2 years, seven for 5 years and six for 7 years of follow-up. Conclusions: In the long term SBS surgical adult patients fed with HEN+OI couldn`t maintain adequate nutritional status with loss of FM and FFM. (Nutr Hosp. 2011;26:834-842) DOI:10.3305/nh.2011.26.4.5153

Intellectual origins of welfare dependency

'Welfare dependency' has become a key term in policy debate in the United States and, more recently, Australia. In this article I explore the intellectual origins of the term, looking specifically at the writings of George Gilder and Charles Murray, two commentators whose (often polemically presented) ideas were influential within the Reagan Administration and have been at the forefront of a conservative renewal in welfare debate generally. Although others have subsequently refined some of their arguments and proposals, the authors' central claim that welfare causes dependency and thus unemployment and poverty - and that welfare reform therefore needs to focus on changing the behaviour of welfare recipients rather than providing employment opportunities - has had a lasting political impact, in Australia as much as in the US.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Etude des liens entre l'alexithymie, l'expérience dépressive et la dépendance interpersonnelle chez des sujets addictifs [Relationships between alexithymia, depression and interpersonal dependency in addictive subjects].

In the scientific literature, the term of addiction is currently used to describe a whole range of phenomena characterized by an irresistible urge to engage in a series of behaviors carried out in a repetitive and persistent manner despite accruing adverse somatic, psychological and social consequences for the individual. It has been suggested that subjects presenting such behaviors would share specific features of personality which support the appearance or are associated with these addictive behaviors. Dimensions such as alexithymia and depression have been particularly well investigated. The aim of this study was to explore the hypothesis of a specific psychopathological model relating alexithymia and depression in different addictive disorders such as alcoholism, drug addiction or eating disorders. Alexithymic and depressive dimensions were explored and analyzed through the statistical tool of path analysis in a large clinical sample of addicted patients and controls. The results of this statistical method, which tests unidirectional causal relationships between a certain number of observed variables, showed a good adjustment between the observed data and the ideal model, and support the hypothesis that a depressive dimension can facilitate the development of dependence in vulnerable alexithymic subjects. These results can have clinical implications in the treatment of addictive disorders.

In situ cardiac performance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at cold temperatures: long-term acclimation, acute thermal challenge and the role of adrenaline

The resting and maximum in situ cardiac performance of Newfoundland Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) acclimated to 10, 4 and 0°C were measured at their respective acclimation temperatures, and when acutely exposed to temperature changes: i.e. hearts from 10°C fish cooled to 4°C, and hearts from 4°C fish measured at 10 and 0°C. Intrinsic heart rate (f(H)) decreased from 41 beats min(-1) at 10°C to 33 beats min(-1) at 4°C and 25 beats min(-1) at 0°C. However, this degree of thermal dependency was not reflected in maximal cardiac output (Q(max) values were ~44, ~37 and ~34 ml min(-1) kg(-1) at 10, 4 and 0°C, respectively). Further, cardiac scope showed a slight positive compensation between 4 and 0°C (Q(10)=1.7), and full, if not a slight over compensation between 10 and 4°C (Q(10)=0.9). The maximal performance of hearts exposed to an acute decrease in temperature (i.e. from 10 to 4°C and 4 to 0°C) was comparable to that measured for hearts from 4°C- and 0°C-acclimated fish, respectively. In contrast, 4°C-acclimated hearts significantly out-performed 10°C-acclimated hearts when tested at a common temperature of 10°C (in terms of both Q(max) and power output). Only minimal differences in cardiac function were seen between hearts stimulated with basal (5 nmol l(-1)) versus maximal (200 nmol l(-1)) levels of adrenaline, the effects of which were not temperature dependent. These results: (1) show that maximum performance of the isolated cod heart is not compromised by exposure to cold temperatures; and (2) support data from other studies, which show that, in contrast to salmonids, cod cardiac performance/myocardial contractility is not dependent upon humoral adrenergic stimulation.

Are there accurate predictors of long-term vital and functional outcomes in cardiac surgical patients requiring prolonged intensive care?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The decision to maintain intensive treatment in cardiac surgical patients with poor initial outcome is mostly based on individual experience. The risk scoring systems used in cardiac surgery have no prognostic value for individuals. This study aims to assess (a) factors possibly related to poor survival and functional outcomes in cardiac surgery patients requiring prolonged (> or = 5 days) intensive care unit (ICU) treatment, (b) conditions in which treatment withdrawal might be justified, and (c) the patient's perception of the benefits and drawbacks of long intensive treatments. METHODS: The computerized data prospectively recorded for every patient in the intensive care unit over a 3-year period were reviewed and analyzed (n=1859). Survival and quality of life (QOL) outcomes were determined in all patients having required > or =5 consecutive days of intensive treatment (n=194/10.4%). Long-term survivors were interviewed at yearly intervals in a standardized manner and quality of life was assessed using the dependency score of Karnofsky. No interventions or treatments were given, withhold, or withdrawn as part of this study. RESULTS: In-hospital, 1-, and 3-year cumulative survival rates reached 91.3%, 85.6%, and 75.1%, respectively. Quality of life assessed 1 year postoperatively by the score of Karnofsky was good in 119/165 patients, fair in 32 and poor in 14. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of 19 potential predictors of poor outcome identified dialysis as the sole factor significantly (p=0.027) - albeit moderately - reducing long-term survival, and sustained neurological deficit as an inconstant predictor of poor functional outcome (p=0.028). One year postoperatively 0.63% of patients still reminded of severe suffering in the intensive station and 20% of discomfort. Only 7.7% of patients would definitely refuse redo surgery. CONCLUSIONS: This study of cardiac surgical patients requiring > or =5 days of intensive treatment did not identify factors unequivocally justifying early treatment limitation in individuals. It found that 1-year mortality and disability rates can be maintained at a low level in this subset of patients, and that severe suffering in the ICU is infrequent.

Long-term trends in invertebrate–habitat relationships under protected and fished conditions

Few studies examine the long-term effects of changing predator size and abundance on the habitat associations of resident organisms despite that this knowledge is critical to understand the ecosystem effects of fishing. Marine reserves offer the opportunity to determine ecosystem-level effects of manipulated predator densities, while parallel monitoring of adjacent fished areas allows separating these effects from regional-scale change. Relationships between two measures of benthic habitat structure (reef architecture and topographic complexity) and key invertebrate species were followed over 17 years at fished and protected subtidal rocky reefs associated with two southern Australian marine reserves. Two commercially harvested species, the southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) and blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) were initially weakly associated with habitat structure across all fished and protected sites. The strength of association with habitat for both species increased markedly at protected sites 2 years after marine reserve declaration, and then gradually weakened over subsequent years. The increasing size of rock lobster within reserves apparently reduced their dependency on reef shelters as refuges from predation. Rising predation by fish and rock lobster in the reserves corresponded with weakening invertebrate–habitat relationships for H. rubra and sea urchins (Heliocidaris erythrogramma). These results emphasise that animal–habitat relationships are not necessarily stable through time and highlight the value of marine reserves as reference sites. Our work shows that fishery closures to enhance populations of commercially important and keystone species should be in areas with a range of habitat features to accommodate shifting ecological requirements with ontogenesis.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Compile-time derivation of variable dependency using abstract interpretation

Traditional schemes for abstract interpretation-based global analysis of logic programs generally focus on obtaining procedure argument mode and type information. Variable sharing information is often given only the attention needed to preserve the correctness of the analysis. However, such sharing information can be very useful. In particular, it can be used for predicting runtime goal independence, which can eliminate costly run-time checks in and-parallel execution. In this paper, a new algorithm for doing abstract interpretation in logic programs is described which concentrates on inferring the dependencies of the terms bound to program variables with increased precisión and at all points in the execution of the program, rather than just at a procedure level. Algorithms are presented for computing abstract entry and success substitutions which extensively keep track of variable aliasing and term dependence information. In addition, a new, abstract domain independent ñxpoint algorithm is presented and described in detail. The algorithms are illustrated with examples. Finally, results from an implementation of the abstract interpreter are presented.

Impact of weather dependency on planning decisions in the australian national electricity market

A long-term planning method for the electricity market is to simulate market operation into the future. Outputs from market simulation include indicators for transmission augmentation and new generation investment. A key input to market simulations is demand forecasts. For market simulation purposes, regional demand forecasts for each half-hour interval of the forecasting horizon are required, and they must accurately represent realistic demand profiles and interregional demand relationships. In this paper, a demand model is developed to accurately model these relationships. The effects of uncertainty in weather patterns and inherent correlations between regional demands on market simulation results are presented. This work signifies the advantages of probabilistic modeling of demand levels when making market-based planning decisions.