Paradigm shift to enhanced water supply planning through augmented grids, scarcity pricing and adaptive factory water : a system dynamics approach

This paper details a system dynamics model developed to simulate proposed changes to water governance through the integration of supply, demand and asset management processes. To effectively accomplish this, interconnected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity are included in the model design, representing the first comprehensive life-cycle modelling of potable water systems. A number of scenarios were applied to Australia's populated South-east Queensland region, demonstrating that introducing temporary drought pricing (i.e. progressive water prices set inverse with availability), in conjunction with supply augmentation through rain-independent sources, is capable of efficiently providing water security in the future. Modelling demonstrated that this alternative tariff structure reduced demand in scarcity periods thereby preserving supply, whilst revenues are maintained to build new water supply infrastructure. In addition to exploring alternative tariffs, the potential benefits of using adaptive pressure-retarded osmosis desalination plants for both potable water and power generation was explored. This operation of these plants for power production, when they would otherwise be idle, shows promise in reducing their net energy and carbon footprints. Stakeholders in industry, government and academia were engaged in model development and validation. The constructed model displays how water resource systems can be reorganised to cope with systemic change and uncertainty.

Water security through scarcity pricing and reverse osmosis: a system dynamics approach

Water supply and demand planning is often conducted independently of social and economic strategies. There are presently no comprehensive life-cycle approaches to modelling urban water balances that incorporate economic feedbacks, such as tariff adjustment, which can in turn create a financing capacity for investment responses to low reservoir levels. This paper addresses this gap, and presents a system dynamics model that augments the usual water utility representation of the physical linkages of water grids, by adding inter-connected feedback loops in tariff structures, demand levels and financing capacity. The model, applied in the south-east Queensland region in Australia, enables simulation of alternatives and analysis of stocks and flows around a grid or portfolio of bulk supplies including an increasing proportion of rain-independent desalination plants. Such rain-independent water production plants complement the rain-dependent sources in the region and can potentially offer indefinite water security at a price. The study also shows how an alternative temporary drought pricing regime not only defers costly bulk supply infrastructure but actually generates greater price stability than traditional pricing approaches. The model has implications for water supply planners seeking to pro-actively plan, justify and finance portfolios of rain-dependent and rain-independent bulk water supply infrastructure. Interestingly, the modelling showed that a temporary drought pricing regime not only lowers the frequency and severity of water insecurity events but also reduces the long-run marginal cost of water supply for the region when compared to traditional reactive planning approaches that focus on restrictions to affect demand in scarcity periods.

EFFECT OF TEMPORARY DROUGHT AT DIFFERENT GROWTH STAGES ON SNAP BEAN POD QUALITY AND YIELD

High quality snap bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L. ) can be produced under rain-fed conditions, provided that adequate moisture is available. However, drought may occur at any stage of growth of snap bean. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of drought stress at different growth stages on pod physical quality and nutrient concentrations. An experiment was conducted at the Horticulture Greenhouse, Hawassa University in Ethiopia. Drought stress (50% of field capacity [FC]) was applied at the unfolding of the fourth trifoliate leaf, flowering and pod formation, against a control with no drought stress. The drought stress treatments and eight cultivars were arranged as a factorial experiment in a completely randomised design, with three replications. Drought stress (50% FC) during reproductive stages significantly (P<0.05) reduced pod texture, appearance, and pod curvature. Drought stress increased protein and zinc concentrations by 41 and 15%, respectively; but reduced iron concentration by 15% in snap bean pods. All the tested cultivars had relatively similar responses to drought stress.

Comparison of permanent and temporary streams of calcareous Provence [Translation from: Annales de Limnologie 9(3) 273-292, 1973]

The rainfall regime and the karstic nature of the subsoil determines the alternation of a period of flow and a period of drought for a large number of Mediterranean streams. Amongst this type of stream it is possible to distinguish temporary streams, characterised by a period of flow for several months permitting the establishment of the principal groups of aquatic insects; and ephemeral streams whose very brief period of flow permits the establishment of a community reduced to a few species of Diptera. This paper aims to study the structure of the communities which colonise this particular type of stream and the ecology of the principal species which constitute these communities. Four French temporary streams were examined and temperature regimes, dissolved oxygen, calcium and magnesium measured. Samples of fauna were taken regularly and the biotic composition established. The analysis of similarities between the three permanent streams are discussed and compared with permanent streams.

Temporary fragmentation of a marginal lake and its effects on zooplankton community structure and organization

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pricing and spread components at the Lima Stock Exchange

This paper analyses three aspects of the share market operated by the Lima Stock Exchange: (i) the short-term relationship between the pricing, direction and volume of order flows; (ii) the components of the spread and the equilibrium point of the limit order book per share, and (iii) the pricing, order direction and trading volume dynamic resulting from shocks in the same variables when lagged. The econometric results for intraday data from 2012 show that the short-run dynamic of the most and least liquid shares in the General Index of the Lima Stock Exchange is explained by the direction of order flow, whose price impact is temporary in both cases.

Barriers to Temporary Inter‐District Water Transfers in the Yakima River Basin: Irrigation District Perspective

Water marketing, or mechanisms to acquire and redistribute water such as temporary water transfers, can represent a valuable response to drought for irrigation districts. The Department of Ecology, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and a workgroup composed of members from various entities collaborated to develop the Yakima River Basin Integrated Water Resource Management Plan (Integrated Plan) to better manage water resources and address ecosystem issues in the Yakima River Basin. The Integrated Plan addresses water marketing but it does not provide specifics on how barriers to inter‐district water transfers will be eliminated. This study asks irrigation district managers in the Yakima River basin about the factors they consider when deciding whether to engage in a temporary inter‐district water transfer or not. Results show that institutional barriers are the most common barrier to inter‐district water transfers. This topic requires further research on fallowing and irrigation district behavior in relation to the other water supply efforts outlined in the Integrated Plan. Finally, the water market in the Yakima basin can benefit from education and outreach to senior water rights holders, shortening the time frame to process expedited transfers, and documentation from irrigation districts reporting denial reasons for temporary inter‐district water transfers.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Quantifying the costs of drought : new evidence from life satisfaction data

We estimate the cost of droughts by matching rainfall data with individual life satisfaction. Our context is Australia over the period 2001 to 2004, which included a particularly severe drought. Using fixed-effect models, we find that a drought in spring has a detrimental effect on life satisfaction equivalent to an annual reduction in income of A$18,000. This effect, however, is only found for individuals living in rural areas. Using our estimates, we calculate that the predicted doubling of the frequency of spring droughts will lead to the equivalent loss in life satisfaction of just over 1% of GDP annually.

Conditional coskewness and asset pricing

We explore the empirical usefulness of conditional coskewness to explain the cross-section of equity returns. We find that coskewness is an important determinant of the returns to equity, and that the pricing relationship varies through time. In particular we find that when the conditional market skewness is positive investors are willing to sacrifice 7.87% annually per unit of gamma (a standardized measure of coskewness risk) while they only demand a premium of 1.80% when the market is negatively skewed. A similar picture emerges from the coskewness factor of Harvey and Siddique (Harvey, C., Siddique, A., 2000a. Conditional skewness in asset pricing models tests. Journal of Finance 65, 1263–1295.) (a portfolio that is long stocks with small coskewness with the market and short high coskewness stocks) which earns 5.00% annually when the market is positively skewed but only 2.81% when the market is negatively skewed. The conditional two-moment CAPM and a conditional Fama and French (Fama, E., French, K., 1992. The cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 47,427465.) three-factor model are rejected, but a model which includes coskewness is not rejected by the data. The model also passes a structural break test which many existing asset pricing models fail.

The ethics of regional water planning : planning and management of water resources in a growth region

Abstract Providing water infrastructure in times of accelerating climate change presents interesting new problems. Expanding demands must be met or managed in contexts of increasingly constrained sources of supply, raising ethical questions of equity and participation. Loss of agricultural land and natural habitats, the coastal impacts of desalination plants and concerns over re-use of waste water must be weighed with demand management issues of water rationing, pricing mechanisms and inducing behaviour change. This case study examines how these factors impact on infrastructure planning in South East Queensland, Australia: a region with one of the developed world’s most rapidly growing populations, which has recently experienced the most severe drought in its recorded history. Proposals to match forecast demands and potential supplies for water over a 20 year period are reviewed by applying ethical principles to evaluate practical plans to meet the water needs of the region’s activities and settlements.