Predictability Of Share Prices In India: A Study Of The Applicability Of Technical Analysis

In spite of the far longed practices of technical analysis by many participants in Indian stock market, none have arrived at the exact position of technical analysis as a tool for foretelling share prices. There is no evidence supporting that one has established its definite role in predicting the behaviour of share price and also to see the extent of validity (how far reliable) of technical tools in Indian stock market. The problem is the vacuum in the arena of securities market analysis where an unrecognised tool is practised, i.e., whether to hold on to technical analysis or to drop it. Again, as already stated in this chapter, its validity need not continue forever. It may become futile as happened in developed markets. Continuous practice of a tool, which is valid only during discontinuous times is also an error. The efficacy of different market phenomena in terms of their ability to foretell the extent and direction of the price movements and reliability thereof remain as not yet proved in. This requires further study in this area so that this controversy may be settled. A solution to the problem requires enquiring and establishing the applicability of technical analysis, if any, there is in the Indian stock market. The study has the following two broad objectives for the purpose of confirming the applicability, if any, of technical analysis in the Indian stock market. The first objective is to ascertain the current validity of ‘traditional holding with respect to patterns’ and the second objective is to ascertain the ‘consistent superiority’, if any, of technical indicators over non-signal strategies in return generation. The study analyses the five patterns, which are widely known and commonly found in publications. They are: (1) Symmetrical Triangles, (2) Rising Wedges, (3) Falling Wedges, (4) Head and Shoulders Top and (5) Head and Shoulders Bottom.

Seleções olimpicas de basquetebol feminino do Brasil (2000 e 2004) : correlação entre variaveis tecnicas e fisicas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Assessment of vocational guidance: The Berufsbilder test

The object of this study is to assess informative possibilities of some technical indicators of the Test of Photos of Professions (BBT - Berufsbilder test), a projective method to clarify professional inclination, proposed by Martin Achtnich. This psychological evaluation technique is composed of 96 photos of professionals, performing various types of activities. The test subject classifies the photos into three groups: positive (agreeable), negative (disagreeable) and indifferent (neutral). Among those chosen positively, five preferences are chosen and a story is developed that includes them, an activity that is requested two times during the Vocational Guidance process: in the beginning (or middle) and at the end of the intervention. In this study, 160 stories were created by 80 youths, between 15 and 20 years of age, in public and private schools in a mid-sized Brazilian city. The stories were compared in three analytical categories: protagonist, professional conflict and resolution. The results were submitted to Wilcoxon nonparametric statistical analysis (p < .05), significant and relevant indicators of resolution being found in the process of occupational choice. This technical resource was shown, from this empirical evidence, to be promising for use in evaluation of intervention processes of Vocational Guidance.

Análise técnica aplicada aos mercados cambiais estudo comparativo das cotações EUR/USD, GBP/USD E JPY/USD

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Previsão de retornos intradiários através de regressões usando funções-núcleo

As contribuições deste artigo são duas. A primeira, um método de avaliação de regressões não lineares para a previsão de retornos intradiários de ações no mercado brasileiro é discutido e aplicado, com o objetivo de maximizar o retorno de um portfólio simulado de compras e vendas. A segunda, regressões usando funções-núcleo associadas ao particionamento da amostra por vizinhos mais próximos são realizadas. Algumas variáveis independentes utilizadas são indicadores técnicos, cujos parâmetros são otimizados dentro da amostra de estimação. Os resultados alcançados são positivos e superam, em uma análise quartil a quartil, os resultados produzidos por um modelo benchmark de autorregressão linear

Competitividade interna na bovinocultura de corte no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo identificar os principais fatores internos (custos, receitas, viabilidade técnico-econômica e uso de inovações tecnológicas) que afetam a competitividade da bovinocultura de corte em um sistema de produção de ciclo completo no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os dados foram coletados durante o ano de 2008, a partir de reuniões mensais entre os meses de janeiro e dezembro. Posteriormente, os dados foram analisados em planilhas eletrônicas. Os custos foram subdivididos em desembolsados, operacionais e totais e as receitas por categoria e total. Dentre os custos avaliados, destacaram-se o custo de oportunidade da terra, mão-de-obra e suplementação animal, com valores de 19,9%, 18,3% e 13,6%, respectivamente, em relação ao custo total. Foram calculados os principais indicadores financeiros e técnicos utilizados comumente em análise de sistemas de produção. As margens econômicas (bruta, operacional e líquida), assim como a lucratividade e rentabilidade sobre o patrimônio líquido, foram positivos, o que demonstra a viabilidade econômica da atividade. Ao mesmo tempo, indicadores técnicos, como a taxa de desfrute e a produtividade/ha, apresentaram valores satisfatórios. Dessa forma, pode-se concluir que os fatores internos avaliados foram extremamente competitivos para o sistema em questão.

Essays on the Impact of Stakeholders' Sentiment on the Financial Decision Making Process

The most important factor that affects the decision making process in finance is the risk which is usually measured by variance (total risk) or systematic risk (beta). Since investors' sentiment (whether she is an optimist or pessimist) plays a very important role in the choice of beta measure, any decision made for the same asset within the same time horizon will be different for different individuals. In other words, there will neither be homogeneity of beliefs nor the rational expectation prevalent in the market due to behavioral traits. This dissertation consists of three essays. In the first essay, Investor Sentiment and Intrinsic Stock Prices, a new technical trading strategy is developed using a firm specific individual sentiment measure. This behavioral based trading strategy forecasts a range within which a stock price moves in a particular period and can be used for stock trading. Results show that sample firms trade within a range and show signals as to when to buy or sell. The second essay, Managerial Sentiment and the Value of the Firm, examines the effect of managerial sentiment on the project selection process using net present value criterion and also effect of managerial sentiment on the value of firm. Findings show that high sentiment and low sentiment managers obtain different values for the same firm before and after the acceptance of a project. The last essay, Investor Sentiment and Optimal Portfolio Selection, analyzes how the investor sentiment affects the nature and composition of the optimal portfolio as well as the performance measures. Results suggest that the choice of the investor sentiment completely changes the portfolio composition, i.e., the high sentiment investor will have a completely different choice of assets in the portfolio in comparison with the low sentiment investor. The results indicate the practical application of behavioral model based technical indicators for stock trading. Additional insights developed include the valuation of firms with a behavioral component and the importance of distinguishing portfolio performance based on sentiment factors.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Technical and economic indicators of the yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with underground water supply

The research aimed to quantify technical and economic indicators of yellow passion fruit tree irrigated with fractions of irrigation with underground source of water, to generate information that helps farmers in decision making on the implementation of investment in irrigated fruit growing (yellow passion fruit). For this purpose, we used the passion fruit crop irrigated with Microjet type irrigation system, with conducting system in simple espaliers. The treatments consisted of five hours of application of the depth of water required by the crop with irrigation frequency of two days. The results showed that the highest yield (16660kg ha-1) was obtained with the fractionation of irrigation twice a day (50% to 7h and 50% to 21h30), which provided an increase in productivity of 54%, demonstrating the financial viability and being highly profitable to the interest rate of 2% per year, with low sensitivity of financial risk to real interest rates above the prevailing market.

Report of the technical meeting on the status of gender indicators in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

A three-stage DEA model to evaluate learning-teaching technical efficiency: Key performance indicators and contextual variables

This study evaluates the technical efficiency of the learning-teaching process in higher education using a three-stage procedure that offers advances in comparison to previous studies and improves the quality of the results. First, it utilizes a multiple stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with contextual variables. Second, the levels of super efficiency are calculated in order to prioritize the efficiency units. And finally, through sensitivity analysis, the contribution of each key performance indicator (KPI) is established with respect to the efficiency levels without omission of variables. The analytical data was collected from a survey completed by 633 tourism students during the 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2013/14 academic course years. The results suggest that level of satisfaction with the course, diversity of materials and satisfaction with the teacher were the most important factors affecting teaching performance. Furthermore, the effect of the contextual variables was found to be significant.

A chart book of indicators of scientific & technical communication in the United States /

"Prepared by Donald W. King, Barbara L. Wood, and Charles G. Schueller.

Investigating technical and scale efficiencies of Australian universities through data envelopment analysis

Performance indicators in the public sector have often been criticised for being inadequate and not conducive to analysing efficiency. The main objective of this study is to use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relative efficiency of Australian universities. Three performance models are developed, namely, overall performance, performance on delivery of educational services, and performance on fee-paying enrolments. The findings based on 1995 data show that the university sector was performing well on technical and scale efficiency but there was room for improving performance on fee-paying enrolments. There were also small slacks in input utilisation. More universities were operating at decreasing returns to scale, indicating a potential to downsize. DEA helps in identifying the reference sets for inefficient institutions and objectively determines productivity improvements. As such, it can be a valuable benchmarking tool for educational administrators and assist in more efficient allocation of scarce resources. In the absence of market mechanisms to price educational outputs, which renders traditional production or cost functions inappropriate, universities are particularly obliged to seek alternative efficiency analysis methods such as DEA.

Finnair Technical Procurement’s Processes and Service Quality

As primary objective, this thesis examines Finnair Technical Procurement’s service quality with its underlying process. As an internal unit, Technical Procurement serves as a link between external suppliers and internal customers. It is argued that external service quality requires a certain quality level within an organization. At the same time, aircraft maintenance business is subject to economic restraints. Therefore, a methodology was developed with a modified House of Quality that assists management in analyzing and evaluating Technical Procurement’s service level and connected process steps. It could be shown that qualitative and quantitative objectives do not exclude each other per se.