The family health system: analysis of a health survey in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background The Family Health Strategy (FHS) has been implemented as a strategy for primary care improvement in Brazil. Working with teams that include one doctor, one nurse, auxiliary nurses and community health workers in predefined areas, the FHS began in 1994 (known then as the Family Health Program) and has since grown considerably. The programme has only recently undergone assessment of outcomes, in contrast to more routine evaluations of infrastructure and process. Methods In 2001, a health survey was carried out in two administrative districts (with 190 000 inhabitants) on the outskirts of the city of Sao Paulo, both partially served by the FHS. Chronic morbidity (hypertension, diabetes and ischaemic heart disease) of individuals aged 15 or older was studied in areas covered and not covered by the programme. Stratified univariate analysis was applied for sex, age, education, income, working status and social insurance of these populations. Multivariate analysis was applied where applicable. Results There was a distinct pattern in the morbidity profile of these populations, suggesting differentiated self-knowledge on chronic disease status in the areas served by the FHS. Conclusion The FHS can increase population awareness of chronic diseases, possibly through increasing access to primary care.

Prospective system analysis of stationary battery systems under the frame of Constructive Technology Assessment

Based on the report for the unit “Project IV” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment under the supervision of Dr.-Ing. Marcel Weil and Prof. Dr. António Brandão Moniz. The report was presented and discussed at the Doctorate Conference on Technologogy Assessment in July 2013 at the University Nova Lisboa, Caparica campus.

System analysis of a Peer-to-Peer Video-on-Demand architecture: Kangaroo

Architectural design and deployment of Peer-to-Peer Video-on-Demand (P2PVoD) systems which support VCR functionalities is attracting the interest of an increasing number of research groups within the scientific community; especially due to the intrinsic characteristics of such systems and the benefits that peers could provide at reducing the server load. This work focuses on the performance analysis of a P2P-VoD system considering user behaviors obtained from real traces together with other synthetic user patterns. The experiments performed show that it is feasible to achieve a performance close to the best possible. Future work will consider monitoring the physical characteristics of the network in order to improve the design of different aspects of a VoD system.

Towards a system analysis of the early steps of infectious endocarditis pathogenesis

L'endocardite infectieuse (EI) est une maladie potentiellement mortelle qui doit être prévenue dans toute la mesure du possible. Au cours de ces dernières 50 années, les recommandations Américaines et Européennes pour la prophylaxie de PEI proposaient aux patients à risques de prendre un antibiotique, préventif avant de subir une intervention médico-chirurgicale susceptible d'induire une bactériémie transitoire. Cependant, des études épidémiologiques récentes ont montré que la plupart des EI survenaient en dehors de tous actes médico-chirurgicaux, et indépendamment de la prise ou non de prophylaxie antibiotique . L'EI pourrait donc survenir suite à la cumulation de bactériémies spontanées de faibles intensités, associées à des activités de la vie courante telle que le brossage dentaire pour le streptocoques, ou à partir de tissus colonisés ou de cathéters infectés pour les staphylocoques. En conséquence, les recommandations internationales pour la prophylaxie de PEI ont été revues et proposent une diminution drastique de l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, le risque d'EI représenté par le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités n'a pas été démontré expérimentalement. Nous avons développé un nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale induite par une inoculation en continu d'une faible quantité de bactéries, simulant le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités chez l'homme, et comparé l'infection de Streptococcus gordonii et de Staphylococcus aureus dans ce modèle avec celle du modèle d'IE induite par une bactériémie brève, mais de forte intensité. Nous avons démontré, après injection d'une quantité égale de bactéries, que le nombre de végétations infectées était similaire dans les deux types d'inoculations. Ces résultats expérimentaux ont confirmé l'hypothèse qu'une exposition cumulée à des bactériémies de faibles intensités, en dehors d'une procédure médico-chirurgicale, représentait un risque pour le développement d'une El, comme le suggéraient les études épidémiologiques. En plus, ces résultats ont validé les nouvelles recommandations pour la prophylaxie de l'El, limitant drastiquement l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, ces nouvelles recommandations laissent une grande partie (> 90%) de cas potentiels d'EI sans alternatives de préventions, et des nouvelles stratégies prophylactiques doivent être investiguées. Le nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale représente un modèle réaliste pour étudier des nouvelles mesures prophylactiques potentielles appliquées à des expositions cumulées de bactériémies de faible nombre. Dans un contexte de bactériémies spontanées répétitives, les antibiotiques ne peuvent pas résoudre le problème de la prévention de l'EI. Nous avons donc étudié la une alternative de prévention par l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires. La logique derrière cette approche était basée sur le fait que les plaquettes sont des composants clés dans la formation des végétations cardiaques, et le fait que les bactéries capables d'interagir avec les plaquettes sont plus enclines à induire une El. Les agents antiplaquettaires utilisés ont été l'aspirine (inhibiteur du COX1), la ticlopidine (inhibiteur du P2Y12, le récepteur de l'ADP), et l'eptifibatide et Pabciximab, deux inhibiteurs du GPIIb/IIIa, le récepteur plaquettaire pour le fibrinogène. Les anticoagulants étaient le dabigatran etexilate, inhibant lathrombine et l'acenocumarol, un antagoniste de la vitamine K. L'aspirine, la ticlopidine ou l'eptifibatide seuls n'ont pas permis de prévenir l'infection valvulaire (> 75% animaux infectés). En revanche, la combinaison d'aspirine et de ticlopidine, aussi bien que l'abciximab, ont protégé 45% - 88% des animaux de l'EI par S. gordonii et par S. aureus. L'antithrombotique dabigatran etexilate à protégé 75% des rats contre l'EI par S. aureus, mais pas (< 30% de protection) par S. gordonii. L'acenocoumarol n'a pas eu d'effet sur aucun des deux organismes. En général, ces résultats suggèrent un possible rôle pour les antiplaquettaires et du dabigatran etexilate dans la prophylaxie de l'EI dans un contexte de bactériémies récurrentes de faibles intensités. Cependant, l'effet bénéfique des antiplaquettaires doit être soupesé avec le risque d'hémorragie inhérent à ces molécules, et le fait que les plaquettes jouent un important rôle dans les défenses de l'hôte contre les infections endovasculaires. En plus, le double effet bénéfique du dabigatran etexilate devrait être revu chez les patients porteurs de valves prothétiques, qui ont besoin d'une anticoagulation à vie, et chez lesquels l'EI à S. aureus est associée avec une mortalité de près de 50%. Comme l'approche avec des antiplaquettaires et des antithrombotiques pourrait avoir des limites, une autre stratégie prophylactique pourrait être la vaccination contre des adhésines de surfaces des pathogènes. Chez S. aureus, la protéine de liaison au fibrinogène, ou dumping factor A (ClfA), et la protéine de liaison à la fibronectine (FnbpA) sont des facteurs de virulence nécessaires à l'initiation et l'évolution de PEI. Elles représentent donc des cibles potentielles pour le développement de vaccins contre cette infection. Récemment, des nombreuses publications ont décrit que la bactérie Lactococcus lactis pouvait être utilisée comme vecteur pour la diffusion d'antigènes bactériens in vivo, et que cette approche pourrait être une stratégie de vaccination contre les infections bactériennes. Nous avons exploré l'effet de l'immunisation par des recombinant de L. lactis exprimant le ClfA, la FnbpA, ou le ClfA ensemble avec et une forme tronquée de la FnbpA (Fnbp, comprenant seulement le domaine de liaison à la fibronectine mais sans le domaine A de liaison au fibrinogène [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), dans la prophylaxie de PIE expérimentale à S. aureus. L. lactis ClfA a été utilisés comme agent d'immunisation contre la souche S. aureus Newman (qui a particularité de n'exprimer que le ClfA, mais pas la FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, et L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, ont été utilisé comme agents d'immunisation contre une souche isolée d'une IE, S. aureus P8 (exprimant ClfA et FnbpA). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA a généré des anticorps anti-ClfA fonctionnels, capables de bloquer la liaison de S. aureus Newman au fibrinogène in vitro et protéger 13/19 (69%) animaux d'une El due à S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, ou L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, a généré des anticorps contre chacun de ces antigènes. Cependant, ils n'ont pas permis de bloquer l'adhésion de S. aureus P8 au fibrinogène et à la fibronectine in vitro. De plus, l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA ou L. lactis FnbpA s'est avérée inefficace in vivo (< 10% d'animaux protégés d'une El) et l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp a fourni une protection limitée de l'EI (8/23 animaux protégés; P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles) après inoculation avec S. aureus P8. Dans l'ensemble, ces résultats indiquent que L. lactis est un système efficace pour la présentation d'antigènes in vivo et potentiellement utile pour la prévention de PEI à S. aureus. Cependant, le répertoire de protéines de surface de S. aureus capable d'évoquer une panoplie d'anticorps efficace reste à déterminer.. En résumé, notre étude a démontré expérimentalement, pour la première fois, qu'une bactériémie répétée de faible intensité, simulant la bactériémie ayant lieu, par exemple, lors des activités de la vie quotidienne, est induire un taux d'EI expérimentale similaire à celle induite par une bactériémie de haute intensité suite à une intervention médicale. Dans ce contexte, où l'utilisation d'antibiotiques est pas raisonnable, nous avons aussi montré que d'autres mesures prophylactiques, comme l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires ou antithrombotiques, ou la vaccination utilisant L. lactis comme vecteur d'antigènes bactériens, sont des alternatives prometteuses qui méritent d'être étudiées plus avant. Thesis Summary Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease that should be prevented whenever possible. Over the last 50 years, guidelines for IE prophylaxis proposed the use of antibiotics in patients undergoing dental or medico-surgical procedures that might induce high, but transient bacteremia. However, recent epidemiological studies indicate that IE occurs independently of medico-surgical procedures and the fact that patients had taken antibiotic prophylaxis or not, i.e., by cumulative exposure to random low-grade bacteremia, associated with daily activities (e.g. tooth brushing) in the case of oral streptococci, or with a colonized site or infected device in the case of staphylococci. Accordingly, the most recent American and European guidelines for IE prophylaxis were revisited and updated to drastically restrain antibiotic use. Nevertheless, the relative risk of IE represented by such cumulative low-grade bacteremia had never been demonstrated experimentally. We developed a new model of experimental IE due to continuous inoculation of low-grade bacteremia, mimicking repeated low-grade bacteremia in humans, and compared the infectivity of Streptococcus gordonii and Staphylococcus aureus in this model to that in the model producing brief, high-level bacteremia. We demonstrated that, after injection of identical bacterial numbers, the rate of infected vegetations was similar in both types of challenge. These experimental results support the hypothesis that cumulative exposure to low-grade bacteremia, outside the context of procedure-related bacteremia, represents a genuine risk of IE, as suggested by human epidemiological studies. In addition, they validate the newer guidelines for IE prophylaxis, which drastic limit the procedures in which antibiotic prophylaxis is indicated. Nevertheless, these refreshed guidelines leave the vast majority (> 90%) of potential IE cases without alternative propositions of prevention, and novel strategies must be considered to propose effective alternative and "global" measures to prevent IE initiation. The more realistic experimental model of IE induced by low-grade bacteremia provides an accurate experimental setting to study new preventive measures applying to cumulative exposure to low bacterial numbers. Since in a context of spontaneous low-grade bacteremia antibiotics are unlikely to solve the problem of IE prevention, we addressed the role of antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents for the prophylaxis of experimental IE induced by S. gordonii and S. aureus. The logic of this approach was based on the fact that platelets are key players in vegetation formation and vegetation enlargement, and on the fact that bacteria capable of interacting with platelets are more prone to induce IE. Antiplatelet agents included the COX1 inhibitor aspirin, the inhibitor of the ADP receptor P2Y12 ticlopidine, and two inhibitors of the platelet fibrinogen receptor GPIIb/IIIa, eptifibatide and abciximab. Anticoagulants included the thrombin inhibitor dabigatran etexilate and the vitamin K antagonist acenocoumarol. Aspirin, ticlopidine or eptifibatide alone failed to prevent aortic infection (> 75% infected animals). In contrast, the combination of aspirin with ticlopidine, as well as abciximab, protected 45% to 88% of animals against IE due to S. gordonii and S. aureus. The antithrombin dabigatran etexilate protected 75% of rats against IE due to S. aureus, but failed (< 30% protection) against S. gordonii. Acenocoumarol had no effect against any bacteria. Overall, these results suggest a possible role for antiplatelet agents and dabigatran etexilate in the prophylaxis of IE in humans in a context of recurrent low- grade bacteremia. However, the potential beneficial effect of antiplatelet agents should be balanced against the risk of bleeding and the fact that platelets play an important role in the host defenses against intravascular infections. In addition, the potential dual benefit of dabigatran etexilate might be revisited in patients with prosthetic valves, who require life-long anticoagulation and in whom S. aureus IE is associated with high mortality rate. Because the antiplatelet and anticoagulant approach might be limited in the context of S. aureus bacteremia, other prophylactic strategies for the prevention of S. aureus IE, like vaccination with anti-adhesion proteins was tested. The S. aureus surface proteins fibrinogen-binding protein clumping-factor A (ClfA) and the fibronectin-binding protein A (FnbpA) are critical virulence factors for the initiation and development of IE. Thus, they represent key targets for vaccine development against this disease. Recently, numerous reports have described that the harmless bacteria Lactococcus lactis can be used as a bacterial vector for the efficient delivery of antigens in vivo, and that this approach is a promising vaccination strategy against bacterial infections. We therefore explored the immunization capacity of non- living recombinant L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, or L. lactis expressing ClfA together with Fnbp (a truncated form of FnbpA with only the fibronectin-binding domain but lacking the fibrinogen-binding domain A [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), to protect against S. aureus experimental IE. L. lactis ClfA was used as immunization agent against the laboratory strain S. aureus Newman (expressing ClfA, but lacking FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, as well as L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, were used as immunization agents against the endocarditis isolate S. aureus P8 (expressing both ClfA and FnbpA). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA produced anti-ClfA functional antibodies, which were able to block the binding of S. aureus Newman to fibrinogen in vitro and protect 13/19 (69%) animals from IE due to S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 compared to controls). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA or L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, produced antibodies against each antigen. However, they were not sufficient to block S. aureus P8 binding to fibrinogen and fibronectin in vitro. Moreover, immunization with L. lactis ClfA or L. lactis FnbpA was ineffective (< 10% protected animals) and immunization with L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp conferred limited protection from IE (8/23 protected animals; P < 0.05 compared to controls) after challenge with S. aureus P8. Together, these results indicate that L. lactis is an efficient delivering antigen system potentially useful for preventing S. aureus IE. They also demonstrate that expressing multiple antigens in L. lactis, yet to be elucidated, will be necessary to prevent IE due to clinical S. aureus strains fully equipped with virulence determinants. In summary, our study has demonstrated experimentally, for the first time, the hypothesis that low-grade bacteremia, mimicking bacteremia occurring outside of a clinical intervention, is equally prone to induce experimental IE as high-grade bacteremia following medico-surgical procedures. In this context, where the use of antibiotics for the prophylaxis of IE is limited, we showed that other prophylactic measures, like the use of antiplatelets, anticoagulants, or vaccination employing L. lactis as delivery vector of bacterial antigens, are reasonable alternatives that warrant to be further investigated.

Large-system analysis of a CDMA dynamic channel under a Markovian input process

We study the minimum mean square error (MMSE) and the multiuser efficiency η of large dynamic multiple access communication systems in which optimal multiuser detection is performed at the receiver as the number and the identities of active users is allowed to change at each transmission time. The system dynamics are ruled by a Markov model describing the evolution of the channel occupancy and a large-system analysis is performed when the number of observations grow large. Starting on the equivalent scalar channel and the fixed-point equation tying multiuser efficiency and MMSE, we extend it to the case of a dynamic channel, and derive lower and upper bounds for the MMSE (and, thus, for η as well) holding true in the limit of large signal–to–noise ratios and increasingly large observation time T.

Identifying barriers and opportunities for transitions towards more sustainable agriculture through system analysis: the case of Vereda La Hoya, Colombia

The paper presents the results of studies which investigated farmers’ reasoning and behaviour with regards to the mis‐use of personal protective equipment and pesticide among smallholders in Colombia. First, the research approach is described. In particular, the structured mental models approach and the integrative agent‐centred framework are presented. These approaches permit to understand the farmers’ reasoning and behaviour in a system perspective. Second, the results are summarized. The methods adopted allowed not only for identifying the factors, but also the social dynamics influencing farmers. Finally, suggestions for interventions are provided, which are not limited to a technical fix, but address the underlying social causes of the problem.

On the analytical solution for the slewing flexible beam-like system: analysis of the linear part of the perturbed problem

The dynamical system investigated in this work is a nonlinear flexible beam-like structure in slewing motion. Non-dimensional and perturbed governing equations of motion are presented. The analytical solution for the linear part of these perturbed equations for ideal and for non-ideal cases are obtained. This solution is necessary for the investigation of the complete weak nonlinear problem where all nonlinearities are small perturbations around a linear known solution. This investigation shall help the analyst in the modelling of dynamical systems with structure- actuator interactions.

Introduction of a non-conventional solution for Amazon transmission system: Analysis of the electric aspects

This article shows an analysis of the longitudinal electric parameters of a three-phase transmission line/section using a 280-meter high steel tower. This characteristic, the height of the line conductors and distance between them, are intrinsic related to the longitudinal and transversal parameters of the line. By this means, an accurate study was carried out in order to show the electric variations between a transmission line using the new technology and a three-phase conventional 440 kV line for a wide range of frequencies and a variable soil resistivity. In addition, by using a digital line model, simulations are carried out in time domain to analyze critical overvoltage transients on the studied line. © 2011 IEEE.

Development of human visual system analysis for the implementation of a new instrument for flicker measurement

Flicker is a power quality phenomenon that applies to cycle instability of light intensity resulting from supply voltage fluctuation, which, in turn can be caused by disturbances introduced during power generation, transmission or distribution. The standard EN 61000-4-15 which has been recently adopted also by the IEEE as IEEE Standard 1453 relies on the analysis of the supply voltage which is processed according to a suitable model of the lamp – human eye – brain chain. As for the lamp, an incandescent 60 W, 230 V, 50 Hz source is assumed. As far as the human eye – brain model is concerned, it is represented by the so-called flicker curve. Such a curve was determined several years ago by statistically analyzing the results of tests where people were subjected to flicker with different combinations of magnitude and frequency. The limitations of this standard approach to flicker evaluation are essentially two. First, the provided index of annoyance Pst can be related to an actual tiredness of the human visual system only if such an incandescent lamp is used. Moreover, the implemented response to flicker is “subjective” given that it relies on the people answers about their feelings. In the last 15 years, many scientific contributions have tackled these issues by investigating the possibility to develop a novel model of the eye-brain response to flicker and overcome the strict dependence of the standard on the kind of the light source. In this light of fact, this thesis is aimed at presenting an important contribution for a new Flickermeter. An improved visual system model using a physiological parameter that is the mean value of the pupil diameter, has been presented, thus allowing to get a more “objective” representation of the response to flicker. The system used to both generate flicker and measure the pupil diameter has been illustrated along with all the results of several experiments performed on the volunteers. The intent has been to demonstrate that the measurement of that geometrical parameter can give reliable information about the feeling of the human visual system to light flicker.

NONLINEAR TIME SERIES/SYSTEM ANALYSIS (STATE-SPACE, DYNAMICS, INTERVENTION, RESILIENCE, KALMAN)

A discussion of nonlinear dynamics, demonstrated by the familiar automobile, is followed by the development of a systematic method of analysis of a possibly nonlinear time series using difference equations in the general state-space format. This format allows recursive state-dependent parameter estimation after each observation thereby revealing the dynamics inherent in the system in combination with random external perturbations.^ The one-step ahead prediction errors at each time period, transformed to have constant variance, and the estimated parametric sequences provide the information to (1) formally test whether time series observations y(,t) are some linear function of random errors (ELEM)(,s), for some t and s, or whether the series would more appropriately be described by a nonlinear model such as bilinear, exponential, threshold, etc., (2) formally test whether a statistically significant change has occurred in structure/level either historically or as it occurs, (3) forecast nonlinear system with a new and innovative (but very old numerical) technique utilizing rational functions to extrapolate individual parameters as smooth functions of time which are then combined to obtain the forecast of y and (4) suggest a measure of resilience, i.e. how much perturbation a structure/level can tolerate, whether internal or external to the system, and remain statistically unchanged. Although similar to one-step control, this provides a less rigid way to think about changes affecting social systems.^ Applications consisting of the analysis of some familiar and some simulated series demonstrate the procedure. Empirical results suggest that this state-space or modified augmented Kalman filter may provide interesting ways to identify particular kinds of nonlinearities as they occur in structural change via the state trajectory.^ A computational flow-chart detailing computations and software input and output is provided in the body of the text. IBM Advanced BASIC program listings to accomplish most of the analysis are provided in the appendix. ^

System Analysis of Innovative Projects in Mechanical Engineering

Modern production and innovation processes in industrial corporations differ by complex nature of modern technologies and organizational solutions. Adequate methodological approaches to their analysis and evaluation of efficiency are required. The present study contains the conceptand the model of operational and innovation program for which formulated theoretical and methodological principles and systematic statement of the general problem of planning, designed to optimize the process of resource usage under different criteria, including: investment, financial, technological, industrial and information capabilities of the corporation.

The general deterrence of driving while intoxicated, volume 1, system analysis and computer-based simulation. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Economic system analysis of coal preconversion technology /

Prepared for Office of Coal Research, U.S. Department of the Interior.

The Skylounge system; analysis and design. A technical and economic feasibility study.

[1] Skylounge Project final report.--[2] Skylounge legal, technical, and financial supplementary study.