The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Analysis on the connotation of probability in the artificial intelligence algorithm for economic decision making.

This paper analyzes the inner relations between classical sub-scheme probability and statistic probability, subjective probability and objective probability, prior probability and posterior probability, transition probability and probability of utility, and further analysis the goal, method, and its practical economic purpose which represent by these various probability from the perspective of mathematics, so as to deeply understand there connotation and its relation with economic decision making, thus will pave the route for scientific predication and decision making.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

Effects of anxiety on visuospatial pattern discrimination and decision-making processes: what can we learn from brain dynamics ?

Detection and discrimination of visuospatial input involve at least extracting, selecting and encoding relevant information and decision-making processes allowing selecting a response. These two operations are altered, respectively, by attentional mechanisms that change discrimination capacities, and by beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events. Information processing is tuned by the attentional level that acts like a filter on perception, while decision-making processes are weighed by subjective probability of risk. In addition, it has been shown that anxiety could affect the detection of unexpected events through the modification of the level of arousal. Consequently, purpose of this study concerns whether and how decision-making and brain dynamics are affected by anxiety. To investigate these questions, the performance of women with either a high (12) or a low (12) STAI-T (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, Spielberger, 1983) was examined in a decision-making visuospatial task where subjects have to recognize a target visual pattern from non-target patterns. The target pattern was a schematic image of furniture arranged in such a way as to give the impression of a living room. Non-target patterns were created by either the compression or the dilatation of the distances between objects. Target and non-target patterns were always presented in the same configuration. Preliminary behavioral results show no group difference in reaction time. In addition, visuo-spatial abilities were analyzed trough the signal detection theory for quantifying perceptual decisions in the presence of uncertainty (Green and Swets, 1966). This theory treats detection of a stimulus as a decision-making process determined by the nature of the stimulus and cognitive factors. Astonishingly, no difference in d' (corresponding to the distance between means of the distributions) and c (corresponds to the likelihood ratio) indexes was observed. Comparison of Event-related potentials (ERP) reveals that brain dynamics differ according to anxiety. It shows differences in component latencies, particularly a delay in anxious subjects over posterior electrode sites. However, these differences are compensated during later components by shorter latencies in anxious subjects compared to non-anxious one. These inverted effects seem indicate that the absence of difference in reaction time rely on a compensation of attentional level that tunes cortical activation in anxious subjects, but they have to hammer away to maintain performance.

Réserves à propos de la notion d'objectivité en lien avec l'incertitude et les probabilités rencontrées dans le procès pénal

Cette contribution présente quelques conceptions de la notion dite d' "objectivité", couramment rencontrées parmi les juristes et scientifiques, et les effets inopportuns de ces perceptions sur une vision cohérente de l'incertitude et sa gestion par les probabilités dans le procès pénal. En invoquant des positions formulées par des célèbres probabilistes du 20ème siècle, mais occasionnellement négligées dans les discussions contemporaines, les auteurs argumentent ici en faveur d'une approche alternative, pragmatique et opérationnelle : la probabilité subjective.

The Role of the Subjectivist Position in the Probabilization of Forensic Science

This paper is concerned with the contribution of forensic science to the legal process by helping reduce uncertainty. Although it is now widely accepted that uncertainty should be handled by probability because it is a safeguard against incoherent proceedings, there remain diverging and conflicting views on how probability ought to be interpreted. This is exemplified by the proposals in scientific literature that call for procedures of probability computation that are referred to as "objective," suggesting that scientists ought to use them in their reporting to recipients of expert information. I find such proposals objectionable. They need to be viewed cautiously, essentially because ensuing probabilistic statements can be perceived as making forensic science prescriptive. A motivating example from the context of forensic DNA analysis will be chosen to illustrate this. As a main point, it shall be argued that such constraining suggestions can be avoided by interpreting probability as a measure of personal belief, that is, subjective probability. Invoking references to foundational literature from mathematical statistics and philosophy of science, the discussion will explore the consequences of this interdisciplinary viewpoint for the practice of forensic expert reporting. It will be emphasized that-as an operational interpretation of probability-the subjectivist perspective enables forensic science to add value to the legal process, in particular by avoiding inferential impasses to which other interpretations of probability may lead. Moreover, understanding probability from a subjective perspective can encourage participants in the legal process to take on more responsibility in matters regarding the coherent handling of uncertainty. This would assure more balanced interactions at the interface between science and the law. This, in turn, provides support for ongoing developments that can be called the "probabilization" of forensic science.

Risk, ambiguity, and diversification

Attitudes toward risk influence the decision to diversify among uncertain options. Yet, because in most situations the options are ambiguous, attitudes toward ambiguity may also play an important role. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect of ambiguity on the decision to diversify. I find that diversification is more prevalent and more persistent under ambiguity than under risk. Moreover, excess diversification under ambiguity is driven by participants who stick with a status quo gamble when diversification among gambles is not feasible. This behavioral pattern cannot be accommodated by major theories of choice under ambiguity.

Social networks and occupational choice: the endogenous formation of attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance

The paper analyses the emergence of group-specific attitudes and beliefs about tax compliance when individuals interact in a social network. It develops a model in which taxpayers possess a range of individual characteristics – including attitude to risk, potential for success in self-employment, and the weight attached to the social custom for honesty – and make an occupational choice based on these characteristics. Occupations differ in the possibility for evading tax. The social network determines which taxpayers are linked, and information about auditing and compliance is transmitted at meetings between linked taxpayers. Using agent-based simulations, the analysis demonstrates how attitudes and beliefs endogenously emerge that differ across sub-groups of the population. Compliance behaviour is different across occupational groups, and this is reinforced by the development of group-specific attitudes and beliefs. Taxpayers self-select into occupations according to the degree of risk aversion, the subjective probability of audit is sustained above the objective probability, and the weight attached to the social custom differs across occupations. These factors combine to lead to compliance levels that differ across occupations.

Ensaios em gestão de risco e regulação bancária

Esta tese é constituída por três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio analisa a informação pública disponível sobre o risco das carteiras de crédito dos bancos brasileiros, sendo dividido em dois capítulos. O primeiro analisa a limitação da informação pública disponibilizada pelos bancos e pelo Banco Central, quando comparada a informação gerencial disponível internamente pelos bancos. Concluiu-se que existe espaço para o aumento da transparência na divulgação das informações, fato que vem ocorrendo gradativamente no Brasil através de novas normas relacionadas ao Pilar 3 de Basileia II e à divulgação de informações mais detalhas pelo Bacen, como, por exemplo, aquelas do “Top50” . A segunda parte do primeiro ensaio mostra a discrepância entre o índice de inadimplência contábil (NPL) e a probabilidade de inadimplência (PD) e também discute a relação entre provisão e perda esperada. Através da utilização de matrizes de migração e de uma simulação baseada na sobreposição de safras de carteira de crédito de grandes bancos, concluiu-se que o índice de inadimplência subestima a PD e que a provisão constituída pelos bancos é menor que a perda esperada do SFN. O segundo ensaio relaciona a gestão de risco à discriminação de preço. Foi desenvolvido um modelo que consiste em um duopólio de Cournot em um mercado de crédito de varejo, em que os bancos podem realizar discriminação de terceiro grau. Neste modelo, os potenciais tomadores de crédito podem ser de dois tipos, de baixo ou de alto risco, sendo que tomadores de baixo risco possuem demanda mais elástica. Segundo o modelo, se o custo para observar o tipo do cliente for alto, a estratégia dos bancos será não discriminar (pooling equilibrium). Mas, se este custo for suficientemente baixo, será ótimo para os bancos cobrarem taxas diferentes para cada grupo. É argumentado que o Acordo de Basileia II funcionou como um choque exógeno que deslocou o equilíbrio para uma situação com maior discriminação. O terceiro ensaio é divido em dois capítulos. O primeiro discute a aplicação dos conceitos de probabilidade subjetiva e incerteza Knigthiana a modelos de VaR e a importância da avaliação do “risco de modelo”, que compreende os riscos de estimação, especificação e identificação. O ensaio propõe que a metodologia dos “quatro elementos” de risco operacional (dados internos, externos, ambiente de negócios e cenários) seja estendida à mensuração de outros riscos (risco de mercado e risco de crédito). A segunda parte deste último ensaio trata da aplicação do elemento análise de cenários para a mensuração da volatilidade condicional nas datas de divulgação econômica relevante, especificamente nos dias de reuniões do Copom.

Beszámoló a spudm 25 konferenciáról

1969 óta kétévente rendezik meg a Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making (SPUDM) elnevezésű konferenciát, amelynek 2015-ben a Döntéselmélet Tanszék szervezésében a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem adott otthont. A konferencia tudományos tanácsának tagjai Adreas Glöckner, Ana Franco-Watkins, Ido Erev, Aczél Balázs és Szántó Richárd voltak, utóbbi egyben a konferencia szervezőbizottságának elnöki tisztét is betöltötte. A konferencia a European Association for Decision Making közgyűlésének is helyszíne egyben, a résztvevők itt határozzák meg a szervezet rövid távú céljait, döntenek a költségvetés felhasználásáról, és itt jelentik be a megválasztott, soron következő elnököt is, aki ebben az évben a Göttingeni Egyetem professzora, Andreas Glöckner lett. A rendezvényen mintegy 340-en vettek részt, főként Európából, de érkeztek kutatók Amerikából, Ázsiából és Ausztráliából is. A konferencia keretében megrendezett 40 szekcióban és 8 önálló szimpóziumon az ítéletalkotással és a döntéshozatallal (judgment and decision making) kapcsolatos szinte minden kutatási terület megjelent.

Structure of international cooperation in trade, investment and environment

This dissertation analyzes the obstacles against further cooperation in international economic relations. The first essay explains the gradual nature of trade liberalization. I show that existence of asymmetric information between governments provides a sufficient reason for gradualism to exist. Governments prefer starting small to reduce the cost of partner’s betrayal when there is sufficient degree of information asymmetry regarding the partner’s type. Learning about partner’s incentive structure enhances expectations, encouraging governments to increase their current level of cooperation. Specifically, the uninformed government’s subjective belief for the trading partner being good is improved as the partner acts cooperatively. This updated belief, in turn, lowers the subjective probability of future betrayal, enabling further progress in cooperation. The second essay analyzes the relationship between two countries facing two policy dilemmas in an environment with two way goods and capital flows. When issues are independent and countries are symmetric, signing separate agreements for tariffs (Free Trade Agreements-FTA) and for taxes (Tax Treaties-TT) provides the identical level of enforcement as signing a linked agreement. However, linkage can still improve the joint welfare by transferring the slack enforcement power in a case of asymmetric issues or countries. I report non-results in two cases where the policy issues are interconnected due to technological spillover effect of FDI. Moreover, I show that linking the agreements actually reduces enforcement when agreements are linked under a limited punishment rule and policy variables are strategic substitutes. The third essay investigates the welfare/enforcement consequences of linking trade and environmental agreements. In the standard literature, linking the agreements generate non-trivial results only when there is structural relation between the issues. I focus on institutional design of the linkage and show that even if environmental aspects of international trade are negligible linking the agreements might still have some interesting welfare implications under current GATT Rules. Specifically, when traded goods are substitutes in consumption, linking the environmental agreement with trade agreement under the Withdrawal of Equivalent Concession Rule (Article XXVIII) will reduce the enforcement. However, enforcement in environmental issue increases when the same rule is implemented in the absence of linkage.

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

Cannabis use and other illicit drug use: Do subjective experiences during first cannabis use increase the probability of using illicit drug use?

Background and aims: Few studies have examined whether subjective experiences during first cannabis use are related to other illicit drug (OID) use. This study investigated this topic. Methods: Baseline data from a representative sample of young Swiss men was obtained from an ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (N ¼ 5753). Logistic regressions were performed to examine the relationships between cannabis use and of subjective experiences during first cannabis use with 15 OID. Results: Positive experiences increased the likelihood of using hallucinogens (hallucinogens, salvia divinorum, spice; p50.015), stimulants (speed, ecstasy, cocaine, amphetamines/methamphetamines; p50.006) and also poppers, research chemicals, GHB/GBL, and crystal meth (p50.049). Sniffed drugs (poppers, solvents for sniffing) and ''hard'' drugs (heroin, ketamine, research chemicals, GHB/GBL and crystal meth) were more likely to be used by participants who experienced negative feelings on first use of cannabis (p50.034). Conclusion: Subjective feelings seemed to amplify the association of cannabis with OID. The risk increased for drugs with effects resembling feelings experienced on first cannabis use. Negative experiences should also be a concern, as they were associated with increased risk of using the ''hardest'' illicit drugs.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Quantitative Imaging Devices and Subjective Optic Nerve Head Assessment by General Ophthalmologists to Differentiate Normal From Glaucomatous Eyes

Purpose: To compare the ability of Subjective assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) by general ophthalmologists and by a glaucoma expert with objective measurements by optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (HRT III; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg. Germany), and scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, CA) in discriminating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Methods: Sixty-one glaucomatous and 57 normal eyes or 118 subjects Were included in the study. Three independent general ophthalmologists and I glaucoma expert evaluated ONH stereo-photographs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each imaging technique and sensitivity at fixed specificity was estimated. Comparisons or areas under these curves (aROCs) and agreement (k) were determined between stereophoto grading and best parameter from each technique. Results: Best parameter from each technique showed larger aROC (Stratus OCT RNFL 0.92; Stratus OCT ONH vertical integrated area = 0.86; Stratus OCT macular thickness = 0.82; GDx enhanced corneal compensation = 0.91, HRT3 global cup-to-disc ratio = 0.83; HRT3 glaucoma probability score numeric area score 0.83) compared with stereophotograph grading by general ophthalmologists (0.80) in separating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Glaucoma expert stereophoto grading provided equal or larger aROC (0.92) than best parameter of each computerized imaging device. Stereophoto evaluated by a glaucoma expert showed better agreement with best parameter of each quantitative imaging technique in classifying eyes either as glaucomatous or normal compared with stereophoto grading by general ophthalmologists, The combination Of Subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists with RNFL objective parameters improved identification of glaucoma patients in a larger proportion than the combination of these objective parameters with Subjective assessment of the optic disc by a glaucoma expert (29.5% vs. 19.7%, respectively). Conclusions: Diagnostic ability of all imaging techniques showed better performance than subjective assessment of the ONH by general ophthalmologists, but not by It glaucoma expert, Objective RNFL measurements may provide improvement in glaucoma detection when combined with subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists or by a glaucoma expert.