A review of current statistical methodologies for in storage sampling and surveillance in the grains industry

Effective, statistically robust sampling and surveillance strategies form an integral component of large agricultural industries such as the grains industry. Intensive in-storage sampling is essential for pest detection, Integrated Pest Management (IPM), to determine grain quality and to satisfy importing nation’s biosecurity concerns, while surveillance over broad geographic regions ensures that biosecurity risks can be excluded, monitored, eradicated or contained within an area. In the grains industry, a number of qualitative and quantitative methodologies for surveillance and in-storage sampling have been considered. Primarily, research has focussed on developing statistical methodologies for in storage sampling strategies concentrating on detection of pest insects within a grain bulk, however, the need for effective and statistically defensible surveillance strategies has also been recognised. Interestingly, although surveillance and in storage sampling have typically been considered independently, many techniques and concepts are common between the two fields of research. This review aims to consider the development of statistically based in storage sampling and surveillance strategies and to identify methods that may be useful for both surveillance and in storage sampling. We discuss the utility of new quantitative and qualitative approaches, such as Bayesian statistics, fault trees and more traditional probabilistic methods and show how these methods may be used in both surveillance and in storage sampling systems.

Modeling ecological and evolutionary processes in spatially structured populations

Many species inhabit fragmented landscapes, resulting either from anthropogenic or from natural processes. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations are affected by a complex interplay between endogenous and exogenous factors. The metapopulation approach, simplifying the landscape to a discrete set of patches of breeding habitat surrounded by unsuitable matrix, has become a widely applied paradigm for the study of species inhabiting highly fragmented landscapes. In this thesis, I focus on the construction of biologically realistic models and their parameterization with empirical data, with the general objective of understanding how the interactions between individuals and their spatially structured environment affect ecological and evolutionary processes in fragmented landscapes. I study two hierarchically structured model systems, which are the Glanville fritillary butterfly in the Åland Islands, and a system of two interacting aphid species in the Tvärminne archipelago, both being located in South-Western Finland. The interesting and challenging feature of both study systems is that the population dynamics occur over multiple spatial scales that are linked by various processes. My main emphasis is in the development of mathematical and statistical methodologies. For the Glanville fritillary case study, I first build a Bayesian framework for the estimation of death rates and capture probabilities from mark-recapture data, with the novelty of accounting for variation among individuals in capture probabilities and survival. I then characterize the dispersal phase of the butterflies by deriving a mathematical approximation of a diffusion-based movement model applied to a network of patches. I use the movement model as a building block to construct an individual-based evolutionary model for the Glanville fritillary butterfly metapopulation. I parameterize the evolutionary model using a pattern-oriented approach, and use it to study how the landscape structure affects the evolution of dispersal. For the aphid case study, I develop a Bayesian model of hierarchical multi-scale metapopulation dynamics, where the observed extinction and colonization rates are decomposed into intrinsic rates operating specifically at each spatial scale. In summary, I show how analytical approaches, hierarchical Bayesian methods and individual-based simulations can be used individually or in combination to tackle complex problems from many different viewpoints. In particular, hierarchical Bayesian methods provide a useful tool for decomposing ecological complexity into more tractable components.

Metodologia bayesiana e adequação de modelos

Tese de doutoramento, Estatística e Investigação Operacional (Probabilidades e Estatística), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014

Optimization of River Water Quality Surveys by Multivariate Analysis of Physicochemical, Bacteriological and Ecotoxicological Data

This study aims to optimize the water quality monitoring of a polluted watercourse (Leça River, Portugal) through the principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA). These statistical methodologies were applied to physicochemical, bacteriological and ecotoxicological data (with the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri and the green alga Chlorella vulgaris) obtained with the analysis of water samples monthly collected at seven monitoring sites and during five campaigns (February, May, June, August, and September 2006). The results of some variables were assigned to water quality classes according to national guidelines. Chemical and bacteriological quality data led to classify Leça River water quality as “bad” or “very bad”. PCA and CA identified monitoring sites with similar pollution pattern, giving to site 1 (located in the upstream stretch of the river) a distinct feature from all other sampling sites downstream. Ecotoxicity results corroborated this classification thus revealing differences in space and time. The present study includes not only physical, chemical and bacteriological but also ecotoxicological parameters, which broadens new perspectives in river water characterization. Moreover, the application of PCA and CA is very useful to optimize water quality monitoring networks, defining the minimum number of sites and their location. Thus, these tools can support appropriate management decisions.

Modelling HIV/AIDS length of stay in Portugal

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão de Informação pelo Instituto Superior de Estatística e Gestão de Informação da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Thermodynamics and log–contrast analysis in fluid geochemistry

There are two principal chemical concepts that are important for studying the natural environment. The first one is thermodynamics, which describes whether a system is at equilibrium or can spontaneously change by chemical reactions. The second main concept is how fast chemical reactions (kinetics or rate of chemical change) take place whenever they start. In this work we examine a natural system in which both thermodynamics and kinetic factors are important in determining the abundance of NH+4 , NO−2 and NO−3 in superficial waters. Samples were collected in the Arno Basin (Tuscany, Italy), a system in which natural and antrophic effects both contribute to highly modify the chemical composition of water. Thermodynamical modelling based on the reduction-oxidation reactions involving the passage NH+4 -> NO−2 -> NO−3 in equilibrium conditions has allowed to determine the Eh redox potential values able to characterise the state of each sample and, consequently, of the fluid environment from which it was drawn. Just as pH expresses the concentration of H+ in solution, redox potential is used to express the tendency of an environment to receive or supply electrons. In this context, oxic environments, as those of river systems, are said to have a high redox potential because O2 is available as an electron acceptor. Principles of thermodynamics and chemical kinetics allow to obtain a model that often does not completely describe the reality of natural systems. Chemical reactions may indeed fail to achieve equilibrium because the products escape from the site of the rection or because reactions involving the trasformation are very slow, so that non-equilibrium conditions exist for long periods. Moreover, reaction rates can be sensitive to poorly understood catalytic effects or to surface effects, while variables as concentration (a large number of chemical species can coexist and interact concurrently), temperature and pressure can have large gradients in natural systems. By taking into account this, data of 91 water samples have been modelled by using statistical methodologies for compositional data. The application of log–contrast analysis has allowed to obtain statistical parameters to be correlated with the calculated Eh values. In this way, natural conditions in which chemical equilibrium is hypothesised, as well as underlying fast reactions, are compared with those described by a stochastic approach

Image analysis of modified cellulose fibers from sugarcane bagasse by zirconium oxychloride

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Quantitative microscopy characterization of hydrous niobium phosphate into bleached cellulose

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação de métodos estatísticos na análise de dados de consumo alimentar

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Interação genótipo x ambiente, adaptabilidade e estabilidade em genótipos de cana-de-açúcar

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV

Estudo de associação genômica e análise de enriquecimento genético da criotolerância espermática em bovinos da raça Nelore

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Motivational interviewing and feedback for college drinkers: Handling missing values with complete case analysis and multiple imputation

Objective: In this secondary data analysis, three statistical methodologies were implemented to handle cases with missing data in a motivational interviewing and feedback study. The aim was to evaluate the impact that these methodologies have on the data analysis. ^ Methods: We first evaluated whether the assumption of missing completely at random held for this study. We then proceeded to conduct a secondary data analysis using a mixed linear model to handle missing data with three methodologies (a) complete case analysis, (b) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, and the interaction of time and treatment, and (c) multiple imputation with explicit model containing outcome variables, time, the interaction of time and treatment, and additional covariates (e.g., age, gender, smoke, years in school, marital status, housing, race/ethnicity, and if participants play on athletic team). Several comparisons were conducted including the following ones: 1) the motivation interviewing with feedback group (MIF) vs. the assessment only group (AO), the motivation interviewing group (MIO) vs. AO, and the intervention of the feedback only group (FBO) vs. AO, 2) MIF vs. FBO, and 3) MIF vs. MIO.^ Results: We first evaluated the patterns of missingness in this study, which indicated that about 13% of participants showed monotone missing patterns, and about 3.5% showed non-monotone missing patterns. Then we evaluated the assumption of missing completely at random by Little's missing completely at random (MCAR) test, in which the Chi-Square test statistic was 167.8 with 125 degrees of freedom, and its associated p-value was p=0.006, which indicated that the data could not be assumed to be missing completely at random. After that, we compared if the three different strategies reached the same results. For the comparison between MIF and AO as well as the comparison between MIF and FBO, only the multiple imputation with additional covariates by uncongenial and congenial models reached different results. For the comparison between MIF and MIO, all the methodologies for handling missing values obtained different results. ^ Discussions: The study indicated that, first, missingness was crucial in this study. Second, to understand the assumptions of the model was important since we could not identify if the data were missing at random or missing not at random. Therefore, future researches should focus on exploring more sensitivity analyses under missing not at random assumption.^

Chronology and petrology in MIS4-2 of DSDP Site 94-609

Ice-rafting evidence for a '1500-year cycle' sparked considerable debate on millennial-scale climate change and the role of solar variability. Here, we reinterpret the last 70,000 years of the subpolar North Atlantic record, focusing on classic DSDP Site 609, in the context of newly available raw data, the latest radiocarbon calibration (Marine09) and ice core chronology (GICC05), and a wider range of statistical methodologies. A ~1500-year oscillation is primarily limited to the short glacial Stage 4, the age of which is derived solely from an ice flow model (ss09sea), subject to uncertainty, and offset most from the original chronology. Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ~1000 and ~2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability. Our new results suggest that the '1500-year cycle' may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging.