993 resultados para Statistical Error


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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia de Electrónica e Telecomunicações

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Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

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The infinitesimal differential quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique is used to estimate electrostatic polarizabilities of the H and He atoms up to the sixth order in the electric field perturbation. All 542 different QMC estimators of the nonzero atomic polarizabilities are derived and used in order to decrease the statistical error and to obtain the maximum efficiency of the simulations. We are confident that the estimates are "exact" (free of systematic error): the two atoms are nodeless systems, hence no fixed-node error is introduced. Furthermore, we develope and use techniques which eliminate systematic error inherent when extrapolating our results to zero time-step and large stack-size. The QMC results are consistent with published accurate values obtained using perturbation methods. The precision is found to be related to the number of perturbations, varying from 2 to 4 significant digits.

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Our objective is to develop a diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm to estimate the exact expectation values, ($o|^|^o), of multiplicative operators, such as polarizabilities and high-order hyperpolarizabilities, for isolated atoms and molecules. The existing forward-walking pure diffusion Monte Carlo (FW-PDMC) algorithm which attempts this has a serious bias. On the other hand, the DMC algorithm with minimal stochastic reconfiguration provides unbiased estimates of the energies, but the expectation values ($o|^|^) are contaminated by ^, an user specified, approximate wave function, when A does not commute with the Hamiltonian. We modified the latter algorithm to obtain the exact expectation values for these operators, while at the same time eliminating the bias. To compare the efficiency of FW-PDMC and the modified DMC algorithms we calculated simple properties of the H atom, such as various functions of coordinates and polarizabilities. Using three non-exact wave functions, one of moderate quality and the others very crude, in each case the results are within statistical error of the exact values.

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The relative rate method has been used to measure the room-temperature rate constants for the gasphase reactions of ozone and NO3 with selected monoterpenes and cyclo-alkenes with structural similarities to monoterpenes. Measurements were carried out at 298 ! 2 K and 760 ! 10 Torr. The following rate constants (in units of 10"18 cm3 molecule"1 s"1) were obtained for the reaction with ozone: methyl cyclohexene (132 ! 17), terpinolene (1290 ! 360), ethylidene cyclohexane (223 ! 57), norbornene (860 ! 240), t-butyl isopropylidene cyclohexane (1500 ! 460), cyclopentene (543 ! 94), cyclohexene (81 ! 18), cyclooctene (451 ! 66), dicyclopentadiene (1460 ! 170) and a-pinene (107 ! 13). For the reaction with NO3 the rate constants obtained (in units of 10"12 cm3 molecule"1 s"1) were: methyl cyclohexene (7.92 ! 0.95), terpinolene (47.9 ! 4.0), ethylidene cyclohexane (4.30 ! 0.24), norbornene (0.266 ! 0.029), cyclohexene (0.540 ! 0.017), cyclooctene (0.513 ! 0.029), dicyclopentadiene (1.20 ! 0.10) and a-pinene (5.17 ! 0.62). Errors are quoted as the root mean square of the statistical error (95% con!dence) and the quoted error in the rate constant for the reference compound. Combining these results with previous studies, new recommendations for the rate constants are presented. Molecular orbital energies were calculated for each alkene and the kinetic data are discussed in terms of the deviation from the structureeactivity relationship obtained from the rate constants for a series of simple alkenes. Lifetimes with respect to key initiators of atmospheric oxidation have been calculated suggesting that the studied reactions play dominant roles in the night-time removal of these compounds from the atmosphere.

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Purpose: To evaluate endothelial cell sample size and statistical error in corneal specular microscopy (CSM) examinations. Methods: One hundred twenty examinations were conducted with 4 types of corneal specular microscopes: 30 with each BioOptics, CSO, Konan, and Topcon corneal specular microscopes. All endothelial image data were analyzed by respective instrument software and also by the Cells Analyzer software with a method developed in our lab(US Patent). A reliability degree (RD) of 95% and a relative error (RE) of 0.05 were used as cut-off values to analyze images of the counted endothelial cells called samples. The sample size mean was the number of cells evaluated on the images obtained with each device. Only examinations with RE<0.05 were considered statistically correct and suitable for comparisons with future examinations. The Cells Analyzer software was used to calculate the RE and customized sample size for all examinations. Results: Bio-Optics: sample size, 97 +/- 22 cells; RE, 6.52 +/- 0.86; only 10% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE<0.05); customized sample size, 162 +/- 34 cells. CSO: sample size, 110 +/- 20 cells; RE, 5.98 +/- 0.98; only 16.6% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE<0.05); customized sample size, 157 +/- 45 cells. Konan: sample size, 80 +/- 27 cells; RE, 10.6 +/- 3.67; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE>0.05); customized sample size, 336 +/- 131 cells. Topcon: sample size, 87 +/- 17 cells; RE, 10.1 +/- 2.52; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE>0.05); customized sample size, 382 +/- 159 cells. Conclusions: A very high number of CSM examinations had sample errors based on Cells Analyzer software. The endothelial sample size (examinations) needs to include more cells to be reliable and reproducible. The Cells Analyzer tutorial routine will be useful for CSM examination reliability and reproducibility.

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The main concern of the A4 parity violation experiment at the Mainzer Microtron accelerator facility is to study the electric and magnetic contributions of strange quarks to the charge and magnetism of the nucleons at the low momentum transfer region. More precisely, the A4 collaboration investigates the strange quarks' contribution to the electric and magnetic vector form factors of the nucleons. Thus, it is important that the A4 experiment uses an adequate and precise non-destructive online monitoring tool for the electron beam polarization when measuring single spin asymmetries in elastic scattering of polarized electrons from unpolarized nucleons. As a consequence, the A4 Compton backscattering polarimeter was designed and installed such that we can take the absolute measurement of the electron beam polarization without interruption to the parity violation experiment. The present study shows the development of an electron beam line that is called the chicane for the A4 Compton backscattering polarimeter. The chicane is an electron beam transport line and provides an interaction region where the electron beam and the laser beam overlap. After studying the properties of beam line components carefully, we developed an electron beam control system that makes a beam overlap between the electron beam and the laser beam. Using the system, we can easily achieve the beam overlap in a short time. The electron control system, of which the performance is outstanding, is being used in production beam times. And the study presents the development of a scintillating fiber electron detector that reduces the statistical error in the electron polarization measurement. We totally redesigned the scintillating fiber detector. The data that were taken during a 2008 beam time shows a huge background suppression, approximately 80 percent, while leaving the Compton spectra almost unchanged when a coincidence between the fiber detector and the photon detector is used. Thus, the statistical error of the polarization measurement is reduced by about 40 percent in the preliminary result. They are the significant progress in measuring a degree of polarization of the electron beam.

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I present a new experimental method called Total Internal Reflection Fluorescence Cross-Correlation Spectroscopy (TIR-FCCS). It is a method that can probe hydrodynamic flows near solid surfaces, on length scales of tens of nanometres. Fluorescent tracers flowing with the liquid are excited by evanescent light, produced by epi-illumination through the periphery of a high NA oil-immersion objective. Due to the fast decay of the evanescent wave, fluorescence only occurs for tracers in the ~100 nm proximity of the surface, thus resulting in very high normal resolution. The time-resolved fluorescence intensity signals from two laterally shifted (in flow direction) observation volumes, created by two confocal pinholes are independently measured and recorded. The cross-correlation of these signals provides important information for the tracers’ motion and thus their flow velocity. Due to the high sensitivity of the method, fluorescent species with different size, down to single dye molecules can be used as tracers. The aim of my work was to build an experimental setup for TIR-FCCS and use it to experimentally measure the shear rate and slip length of water flowing on hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces. However, in order to extract these parameters from the measured correlation curves a quantitative data analysis is needed. This is not straightforward task due to the complexity of the problem, which makes the derivation of analytical expressions for the correlation functions needed to fit the experimental data, impossible. Therefore in order to process and interpret the experimental results I also describe a new numerical method of data analysis of the acquired auto- and cross-correlation curves – Brownian Dynamics techniques are used to produce simulated auto- and cross-correlation functions and to fit the corresponding experimental data. I show how to combine detailed and fairly realistic theoretical modelling of the phenomena with accurate measurements of the correlation functions, in order to establish a fully quantitative method to retrieve the flow properties from the experiments. An importance-sampling Monte Carlo procedure is employed in order to fit the experiments. This provides the optimum parameter values together with their statistical error bars. The approach is well suited for both modern desktop PC machines and massively parallel computers. The latter allows making the data analysis within short computing times. I applied this method to study flow of aqueous electrolyte solution near smooth hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces. Generally on hydrophilic surface slip is not expected, while on hydrophobic surface some slippage may exists. Our results show that on both hydrophilic and moderately hydrophobic (contact angle ~85°) surfaces the slip length is ~10-15nm or lower, and within the limitations of the experiments and the model, indistinguishable from zero.

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In dieser Arbeit wurde die paritätsverletzende Asymmetrie in derrnquasielastischen Elektron-Deuteron-Streuung bei Q^2=0.23 (GeV/c)^2 mitrneinem longitudinal polarisierten Elektronstrahl bei einer Energie von 315rnMeV bestimmt. Die Messung erfolgte unter Rückwärtswinkeln. Der Detektor überdeckte einen polaren Streuwinkelbereichrnzwischen 140 und 150 deg. Das Target bestand aus flüssigemrnDeuterium in einer Targetzelle mit einer Länge von 23.4 cm. Dierngemessene paritätsverletzende Asymmetrie beträgt A_{PV}^d = (-20.11 pm 0.87_{stat} pm 1.03_{syst}), wobei der erste Fehler den statistischenrnFehlereitrag und der zweite den systematischen Fehlerbeitrag beschreibt. Ausrnder Kombination dieser Messung mit Messungen der paritätsverletzendenrnAsymmetrie in der elastischen Elektron-Proton-Streuung bei gleichem Q^2rnsowohl bei Vorwärts- als auch bei Rückwärtsmessungen können diernVektor-Strange-Formfaktoren sowie der effektive isovektorielle und isoskalarernVektorstrom des Protons, der die elektroschwachen radiativen Anapolkorrekturenrnenthält, bestimmt werden. Diese Arbeit umfasst ausserdem die Bestimmungrnder Asymmetrien bei einem transversal polarisierten Elektronstrahl sowohl beirneinem Proton- als auch einem Deuterontarget unter Rückwärtswinkeln beirnImpulsüberträgen von Q^2=0.10 (GeV/c)^2, Q^2=0.23 (GeV/c)^2rnund Q^2=0.35 (GeV/c)^2. Die im Experiment beobachteten Asymmetrien werdenrnmit theoretischen Berechnungen verglichen, welche den Imaginärteil der Zweiphoton-Austauschamplitude beinhalten.

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We report on a new measurement of the neutron beta-asymmetry parameter A with the instrument \perkeo. Main advancements are the high neutron polarization of P=99.7(1) from a novel arrangement of super mirror polarizers and reduced background from improvements in beam line and shielding. Leading corrections were thus reduced by a factor of 4, pushing them below the level of statistical error and resulting in a significant reduction of systematic uncertainty compared to our previous experiments. From the result A0=−0.11996(58), we derive the ratio of the axial-vector to the vector coupling constant λ=gA/gV=−1.2767(16)

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AnewRelativisticScreenedHydrogenicModel has been developed to calculate atomic data needed to compute the optical and thermodynamic properties of high energy density plasmas. The model is based on anewset of universal screeningconstants, including nlj-splitting that has been obtained by fitting to a large database of ionization potentials and excitation energies. This database was built with energies compiled from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) database of experimental atomic energy levels, and energies calculated with the Flexible Atomic Code (FAC). The screeningconstants have been computed up to the 5p3/2 subshell using a Genetic Algorithm technique with an objective function designed to minimize both the relative error and the maximum error. To select the best set of screeningconstants some additional physical criteria has been applied, which are based on the reproduction of the filling order of the shells and on obtaining the best ground state configuration. A statistical error analysis has been performed to test the model, which indicated that approximately 88% of the data lie within a ±10% error interval. We validate the model by comparing the results with ionization energies, transition energies, and wave functions computed using sophisticated self-consistent codes and experimental data.

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Constant pressure and temperature molecular dynamics techniques have been employed to investigate the changes in structure and volumes of two globular proteins, superoxide dismutase and lysozyme, under pressure. Compression (the relative changes in the proteins' volumes), computed with the Voronoi technique, is closely related with the so-called protein intrinsic compressibility, estimated by sound velocity measurements. In particular, compression computed with Voronoi volumes predicts, in agreement with experimental estimates, a negative bound water contribution to the apparent protein compression. While the use of van der Waals and molecular volumes underestimates the intrinsic compressibilities of proteins, Voronoi volumes produce results closer to experimental estimates. Remarkably, for two globular proteins of very different secondary structures, we compute identical (within statistical error) protein intrinsic compressions, as predicted by recent experimental studies. Changes in the protein interatomic distances under compression are also investigated. It is found that, on average, short distances compress less than longer ones. This nonuniform contraction underlines the peculiar nature of the structural changes due to pressure in contrast with temperature effects, which instead produce spatially uniform changes in proteins. The structural effects observed in the simulations at high pressure can explain protein compressibility measurements carried out by fluorimetric and hole burning techniques. Finally, the calculation of the proteins static structure factor shows significant shifts in the peaks at short wavenumber as pressure changes. These effects might provide an alternative way to obtain information concerning compressibilities of selected protein regions.

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The Gaia-ESO Survey is a large public spectroscopic survey that aims to derive radial velocities and fundamental parameters of about 105 Milky Way stars in the field and in clusters. Observations are carried out with the multi-object optical spectrograph FLAMES, using simultaneously the medium-resolution (R ~ 20 000) GIRAFFE spectrograph and the high-resolution (R ~ 47 000) UVES spectrograph. In this paper we describe the methods and the software used for the data reduction, the derivation of the radial velocities, and the quality control of the FLAMES-UVES spectra. Data reduction has been performed using a workflow specifically developed for this project. This workflow runs the ESO public pipeline optimizing the data reduction for the Gaia-ESO Survey, automatically performs sky subtraction, barycentric correction and normalisation, and calculates radial velocities and a first guess of the rotational velocities. The quality control is performed using the output parameters from the ESO pipeline, by a visual inspection of the spectra and by the analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectra. Using the observations of the first 18 months, specifically targets observed multiple times at different epochs, stars observed with both GIRAFFE and UVES, and observations of radial velocity standards, we estimated the precision and the accuracy of the radial velocities. The statistical error on the radial velocities is σ ~ 0.4 km s-1 and is mainly due to uncertainties in the zero point of the wavelength calibration. However, we found a systematic bias with respect to the GIRAFFE spectra (~0.9 km s-1) and to the radial velocities of the standard stars (~0.5 km s-1) retrieved from the literature. This bias will be corrected in the future data releases, when a common zero point for all the set-ups and instruments used for the survey is be established.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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The adsorption of simple Lennard-Jones fluids in a carbon slit pore of finite length was studied with Canonical Ensemble (NVT) and Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo Simulations (GEMC). The Canonical Ensemble was a collection of cubic simulation boxes in which a finite pore resides, while the Gibbs Ensemble was that of the pore space of the finite pore. Argon was used as a model for Lennard-Jones fluids, while the adsorbent was modelled as a finite carbon slit pore whose two walls were composed of three graphene layers with carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern. The Lennard-Jones (LJ) 12-6 potential model was used to compute the interaction energy between two fluid particles, and also between a fluid particle and a carbon atom. Argon adsorption isotherms were obtained at 87.3 K for pore widths of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 nm using both Canonical and Gibbs Ensembles. These results were compared with isotherms obtained with corresponding infinite pores using Grand Canonical Ensembles. The effects of the number of cycles necessary to reach equilibrium, the initial allocation of particles, the displacement step and the simulation box size were particularly investigated in the Monte Carlo simulation with Canonical Ensembles. Of these parameters, the displacement step had the most significant effect on the performance of the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation box size was also important, especially at low pressures at which the size must be sufficiently large to have a statistically acceptable number of particles in the bulk phase. Finally, it was found that the Canonical Ensemble and the Gibbs Ensemble both yielded the same isotherm (within statistical error); however, the computation time for GEMC was shorter than that for canonical ensemble simulation. However, the latter method described the proper interface between the reservoir and the adsorbed phase (and hence the meniscus).