Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

A Note on the “Constructing” of Nonstationary Methods for Solving Nonlinear Equations with Raised Speed of Convergence

This paper is partially supported by project ISM-4 of Department for Scientific Research, “Paisii Hilendarski” University of Plovdiv.

Exponential Rates of Convergence in the Ergodic Theorem: A Constructive Approach

We prove that, once an algorithm of perfect simulation for a stationary and ergodic random field F taking values in S(Zd), S a bounded subset of R(n), is provided, the speed of convergence in the mean ergodic theorem occurs exponentially fast for F. Applications from (non-equilibrium) statistical mechanics and interacting particle systems are presented.

It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data

A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.

On the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell in the Southern Hemisphere

A strong correlation between the speed of the eddy-driven jet and the width of the Hadley cell is found to exist in the Southern Hemisphere, both in reanalysis data and in twenty-first-century integrations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report multimodel archive. Analysis of the space–time spectra of eddy momentum flux reveals that variations in eddy-driven jet speed are related to changes in the mean phase speed of midlatitude eddies. An increase in eddy phase speeds induces a poleward shift of the critical latitudes and a poleward expansion of the region of subtropical wave breaking. The associated changes in eddy momentum flux convergence are balanced by anomalous meridional winds consistent with a wider Hadley cell. At the same time, faster eddies are also associated with a strengthened poleward eddy momentum flux, sustaining a stronger westerly jet in midlatitudes. The proposed mechanism is consistent with the seasonal dependence of the interannual variability of the Hadley cell width and appears to explain at least part of the projected twenty-first-century trends.

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Can we make a Bohmian electron reach the speed of light, at least for one instant?

In Bohmian mechanics, a version of quantum mechanics that ascribes world lines to electrons, we can meaningfully ask about an electron's instantaneous speed relative to a given inertial frame. Interestingly, according to the relativistic version of Bohmian mechanics using the Dirac equation, a massive particle's speed is less than or equal to the speed of light, but not necessarily less. That is, there are situations in which the particle actually reaches the speed of light-a very nonclassical behavior. That leads us to the question of whether such situations can be arranged experimentally. We prove a theorem, Theorem 5, implying that for generic initial wave functions the probability that the particle ever reaches the speed of light, even if at only one point in time, is zero. We conclude that the answer to the question is no. Since a trajectory reaches the speed of light whenever the quantum probability current (psi) over bar gamma(mu)psi is a lightlike 4-vector, our analysis concerns the current vector field of a generic wave function and may thus be of interest also independently of Bohmian mechanics. The fact that the current is never spacelike has been used to argue against the possibility of faster-than-light tunneling through a barrier, a somewhat similar question. Theorem 5, as well as a more general version provided by Theorem 6, are also interesting in their own right. They concern a certain property of a function psi : R(4) -> C(4) that is crucial to the question of reaching the speed of light, namely being transverse to a certain submanifold of C(4) along a given compact subset of space-time. While it follows from the known transversality theorem of differential topology that this property is generic among smooth functions psi : R(4) -> C(4), Theorem 5 asserts that it is also generic among smooth solutions of the Dirac equation. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3520529]

Mild head injury and speed of information processing: A prospective study of professional rugby league players

The sensitivity of several short tests of speed of information processing to the effects of mild head injury in rugby league football was investigated. The measures used were the Symbol Digit Modalities Test, the Digit Symbol Substitution Test, and the Speed of Comprehension Test. Two studies were conducted, the first to examine the effect of practice, the second to determine sensitivity to cognitive impairment immediately following injury. The first study established alternate form equivalence and demonstrated that performance on the Speed of Comprehension and Digit Symbol Substitution tests improved with practice, whereas the Symbol Digit Modalities test remained stable. A second study of 10 players who subsequently sustained mild head injuries showed that measures of speed of information processing were sensitive to impairment in the postacute phase, whereas an untimed task of word recognition (Spot-the-Word) was not. Speed of Comprehension was more sensitive to postinjury impairment than either the Digit Symbol Substitution or Symbol Digit Modalities tests. A repeated baseline assessment before injury using the higher score to reflect a player's potential, allowed measurement of impaired performance on sensitive tests.

Effect of the movement speed of resistance training exercises on sprint and strength performance in concurrently training elite junior sprinters

The aim of this study was to determine the effects of 7 weeks of high- and low-velocity resistance training on strength and sprint running performance in nine male elite junior sprint runners (age 19.0 +/- 1.4 years, best 100 m times 10.89 +/- 0.21 s; mean +/- s). The athletes continued their sprint training throughout the study, but their resistance training programme was replaced by one in which the movement velocities of hip extension and flexion, knee extension and flexion and squat exercises varied according to the loads lifted (i.e. 30-50% and 70-90% of 1-RM in the high- and low-velocity training groups, respectively). There were no between-group differences in hip flexion or extension torque produced at 1.05, 4.74 or 8.42 rad . s(-1), 20 m acceleration or 20 m 'flying' running times, or 1-RM squat lift strength either before or after training. This was despite significant improvements in 20 m acceleration time (P < 0.01), squat strength (P< 0.05), isokinetic hip flexion torque at 4.74 rad . s(-1) and hip extension torque at 1.05 and 4.74 rad . s(-1) for the athletes as a whole over the training period. Although velocity-specific strength adaptations have been shown to occur rapidly in untrained and non-concurrently training individuals, the present results suggest a lack of velocity-specific performance changes in elite concurrently training sprint runners performing a combination of traditional and semi-specific resistance training exercises.

Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Effect of initial conditions on the speed of reaction-diffusion fronts

The effect of initial conditions on the speed of propagating fronts in reaction-diffusion equations is examined in the framework of the Hamilton-Jacobi theory. We study the transition between quenched and nonquenched fronts both analytically and numerically for parabolic and hyperbolic reaction diffusion. Nonhomogeneous media are also analyzed and the effect of algebraic initial conditions is also discussed

Speed of reaction-diffusion fronts in spatially heterogeneous media

The front speed problem for nonuniform reaction rate and diffusion coefficient is studied by using singular perturbation analysis, the geometric approach of Hamilton-Jacobi dynamics, and the local speed approach. Exact and perturbed expressions for the front speed are obtained in the limit of large times. For linear and fractal heterogeneities, the analytic results have been compared with numerical results exhibiting a good agreement. Finally we reach a general expression for the speed of the front in the case of smooth and weak heterogeneities

Speed of reaction-transport processes

We present an approach to determining the speed of wave-front solutions to reaction-transport processes. This method is more accurate than previous ones. This is explicitly shown for several cases of practical interest: (i) the anomalous diffusion reaction, (ii) reaction diffusion in an advective field, and (iii) time-delayed reaction diffusion. There is good agreement with the results of numerical simulations