Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for large-scale systems. Nonetheless, a critical obstacle, which needs to be overcome in MPC, is the large computational burden when a large-scale system is considered or a long prediction horizon is involved. In order to solve this problem, we use an adaptive prediction accuracy (APA) approach that can reduce the computational burden almost by half. The proposed MPC scheme with this scheme is tested on the northern Dutch water system, which comprises Lake IJssel, Lake Marker, the River IJssel and the North Sea Canal. The simulation results show that by using the MPC-APA scheme, the computational time can be reduced to a large extent and a flood protection problem over longer prediction horizons can be well solved.

Randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural therapy for coexisting depression and alcohol problems : short-term outcome

AIMS: Alcohol use disorders and depression co-occur frequently and are associated with poorer outcomes than when either condition occurs alone. The present study (Depression and Alcohol Integrated and Single-focused Interventions; DAISI) aimed to compare the effectiveness of brief intervention, single-focused and integrated psychological interventions for treatment of coexisting depression and alcohol use problems. METHODS: Participants (n = 284) with current depressive symptoms and hazardous alcohol use were assessed and randomly allocated to one of four individually delivered interventions: (i) a brief intervention only (single 90-minute session) with an integrated focus on depression and alcohol, or followed by a further nine 1-hour sessions with (ii) an alcohol focus; (iii) a depression focus; or (iv) an integrated focus. Follow-up assessments occurred 18 weeks after baseline. RESULTS: Compared with the brief intervention, 10 sessions were associated with greater reductions in average drinks per week, average drinking days per week and maximum consumption on 1 day. No difference in duration of treatment was found for depression outcomes. Compared with single-focused interventions, integrated treatment was associated with a greater reduction in drinking days and level of depression. For men, the alcohol-focused rather than depression-focused intervention was associated with a greater reduction in average drinks per day and drinks per week and an increased level of general functioning. Women showed greater improvements on each of these variables when they received depression-focused rather than alcohol-focused treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated treatment may be superior to single-focused treatment for coexisting depression and alcohol problems, at least in the short term. Gender differences between single-focused depression and alcohol treatments warrant further study.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term variability of copepod abundance in Jurumirim Reservoir, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Annual and short-term variability in primary productivity by phytoplankton and correlated abiotic factors in the Jurumirim Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil)

A variabilidade anual da produção fotossintética (PP) pelo fitoplâncton na zona da barragem da Represa de Jurumirim (São Paulo, Brasil) foi medida após um estudo no período de três anos sucessivos, com o objetivo de identificar padrões recorrentes e suas causas. Medidas da variabilidade da PP em escala diária foram obtidas em dois períodos do ano (estações seca e chuvosa). Nenhum padrão recorrente foi verificado nos dados de PP, visto não haver relação de sua variabilidade com nenhum fator hidrológico (precipitação, nível e vazão de água e washout) nem, aparentemente, com as condições nutritivas da água. A análise de componentes principais revelou que a PP e a taxa de assimilação foram mais elevadas na época do ano em que o conteúdo de PO4(3-) e N-NH4+ foi mais baixo e quando as razões Z EU/Z MIX foram mais elevadas. A produtividade primária/área pode ser estimada pela razão entre a produtividade volumétrica máxima e o coeficiente de extinção vertical da luz. Entretanto, a biomassa integrada na Z EU foi um pobre preditor da produtividade primária/área. Nenhuma correlação foi encontrada entre a temperatura da água com a produtividade primária (por área e volumétrica máxima). em conseqüência, o estudo da PP em três anos sucessivos mostrou que o padrão de variabilidade é tipicamente caótico. em relação às medidas de curta duração, maior PP foi encontrada na estação seca do que na chuvosa. em ambos os períodos, a variabilidade da PP (por área) foi de aproximadamente 35-40%. O padrão foi atribuído não somente à variação na concentração dos nutrientes mas também à magnitude de penetração de luz na água associado ao regime de circulação. Um comentário sobre a relação entre produção primária pelo fitoplâncton com produção pesqueira é também apresentada.

The effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability

Background The relationship between positive parent-child interactions and optimal child development is well established. Families with a child with a disability may face additional challenges to establishing positive parent-child relationships. There are limited studies addressing the effectiveness of interventions which seek to address these issues with parents and young children with a disability. In particular, prior studies of music therapy with this group have been limited by small sample sizes and the use of measures of limited reliability and validity. Objective This study investigates the effectiveness of a short-term group music therapy intervention for parents who have a child with a disability and explores the factors associated with higher outcomes for participating families. Methods The participants were 201 mother-child dyads, where the child had a disability. Pre and post intervention parental questionnaires and clinician observation measures were taken on a range of parental wellbeing, parenting behaviours and child developmental factors. Descriptive data, t-tests for repeated measures and a predictive model tested via logistic regression are presented. Results Significant improvements pre to post were found for parent mental health, child communication and social skills, parenting sensitivity, parental engagement with child and acceptance of child, child responsiveness to parent, and child interest and participation in program activities. There was also evidence that parents were very satisfied with the program and that it brought social benefits to families. Reliable change on six or more indicators of parent or child functioning was predicted by attendance and parent education. Conclusions This study provides positive evidence for the effectiveness of group music therapy in promoting improved parental mental health, positive parenting and key child developmental areas. Whilst several limitations are discussed, the study does address some of the gaps in the music therapy evidence base in this area.

A short-term production scheduling methodology for open-pit mines

A multi-resource multi-stage scheduling methodology is developed to solve short-term open-pit mine production scheduling problems as a generic multi-resource multi-stage scheduling problem. It is modelled using essential characteristics of short-term mining production operations such as drilling, sampling, blasting and excavating under the capacity constraints of mining equipment at each processing stage. Based on an extended disjunctive graph model, a shifting-bottleneck-procedure algorithm is enhanced and applied to obtain feasible short-term open-pit mine production schedules and near-optimal solutions. The proposed methodology and its solution quality are verified and validated using a real mining case study.

Corneal changes following short-term miniscleral contact lens wear

Purpose To examine the influence of short-term miniscleral contact lens wear on corneal shape, thickness and anterior surface aberrations. Methods Scheimpflug imaging was captured before, immediately following and 3 hours after a short period (3 hours) of miniscleral contact lens wear for 10 young (mean 27 ± 5 years), healthy participants. Natural diurnal variations were considered by measuring baseline diurnal changes obtained on a separate control day without contact lens wear. Results Small but significant anterior corneal flattening was observed immediately following lens removal (overall mean 0.02 ± 0.03 mm, p < 0.001) which returned to baseline levels three hours after lens removal. During the three hour recovery period significant corneal thinning (-13.4 ± 10.5 μm) and posterior surface flattening (0.03 ± 0.02 mm) were also observed (both p < 0.01). The magnitude of posterior corneal flattening during recovery correlated with the amount of corneal thinning (r = 0.69, p = 0.03). Central corneal clearance (maximum tear reservoir depth) was not associated with corneal swelling following lens removal (r = -0.24, p > 0.05). An increase in lower-order corneal astigmatism Z(2,2) was also observed following lens wear (mean -0.144 ± 0.075 μm, p = 0.02). Conclusions Flattening of the anterior corneal surface was observed immediately following lens wear, while ‘rebound’ thinning and flattening of the posterior surface was evident following the recovery period. Modern miniscleral contact lenses that vault the cornea may slightly influence corneal shape and power but do not induce clinically significant corneal oedema during short-term wear.

Short-term effects of electronic and tobacco cigarettes on exhaled nitric oxide

The objective of this study was to compare the short-term respiratory effects due to the inhalation of electronic and conventional tobacco cigarette-generated mainstream aerosols through the measurement of the exhaled nitric oxide (eNO). To this purpose, twenty-five smokers were asked to smoke a conventional cigarette and to vape an electronic cigarette (with and without nicotine), and an electronic cigarette without liquid (control session). Electronic and tobacco cigarette mainstream aerosols were characterized in terms of total particle number concentrations and size distributions. On the basis of the measured total particle number concentrations and size distributions, the average particle doses deposited in alveolar and tracheobronchial regions of the lungs for a single 2-s puff were also estimated considering a subject performing resting (sitting) activity. Total particle number concentrations in the mainstream resulted equal to 3.5 ± 0.4 × 109, 5.1 ± 0.1 × 109, and 3.1 ± 0.6 × 109 part. cm− 3 for electronic cigarettes without nicotine, with nicotine, and for conventional cigarettes, respectively. The corresponding alveolar doses for a resting subject were estimated equal to 3.8 × 1010, 5.2 × 1010 and 2.3 × 1010 particles. The mean eNO variations measured after each smoking/vaping session were equal to 3.2 ppb, 2.7 ppb and 2.8 ppb for electronic cigarettes without nicotine, with nicotine, and for conventional cigarettes, respectively; whereas, negligible eNO changes were measured in the control session. Statistical tests performed on eNO data showed statistically significant differences between smoking/vaping sessions and the control session, thus confirming a similar effect on human airways whatever the cigarette smoked/vaped, the nicotine content, and the particle dose received.

Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

A STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF LESIONS OF AREA-7 OF THE PARIETAL CORTEX ON THE SHORT-TERM VISUAL SPATIAL MEMORY OF RHESUS-MONKEYS (MACACA-MULATTA)

This research is focused on the contribution of area 7 to the short-term visual spatial memory. Three rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) were trained in the direct delayed response task in which 5 delay intervals were used in each session. When each monkey reached the criterion of 90% correct responses in 5 successive sessions, two monkeys underwent a surgery while the other one received a sham operation as a control. In the first stage of the surgery, bilateral areas 7a, 7b and 7ip of the parietal cortex of two monkeys were precisely lesioned. After 7 days of recuperation, the monkeys were required to do the same task. The average percentage of correct responses in the lesioned animals decreased from 94.7% to 89.3% and 93.3% to 82.0% respectively (no significance, P > 0.05, n = 2). In addition, the monkeys' complex movements were mildly impaired. The lesioned monkeys were found to have difficulty picking up food from the wells. In the second stage, bilateral area 7m was lesioned. In the 5 postoperative sessions, the average percentage of correct responses in one monkey, with a relatively precise 7m lesion, decreased from 94.7% to 92.2% (no significance, P > 0.05), while the other monkey, with widely spread necrosis of lateral parietal cortex, showed an. obvious decline in performance, but still over the chance level. After 240 trials this monkey reattained the normal criterion. The results of this research suggest that the lesions of area 7 of the parietal cortex did not significantly affect the short-term visual spatial memory, which has been shown to be sensitive to lesions of the prefrontal cortex; they also support the notion of dissociation of spatial functions in the prefrontal and parietal cortices.

A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions.