Examining the large-scale spatial coherence of European drought using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit

Droughts tend to evolve slowly and affect large areas simultaneously, which suggests that improved understanding of spatial coherence of drought would enable better mitigation of drought impacts through enhanced monitoring and forecasting strategies. This study employs an up-to-date dataset of over 500 river flow time series from 11 European countries, along with a gridded precipitation dataset, to examine the spatial coherence of drought in Europe using regional indicators of precipitation and streamflow deficit. The drought indicators were generated for 24 homogeneous regions and, for selected regions, historical drought characteristics were corroborated with previous work. The spatial coherence of drought characteristics was then examined at a European scale. Historical droughts generally have distinctive signatures in their spatio-temporal development, so there was limited scope for using the evolution of historical events to inform forecasting. Rather, relationships were explored in time series of drought indicators between regions. Correlations were generally low, but multivariate analyses revealed broad continental-scale patterns, which appear to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (in particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the East Atlantic West Russia pattern). A novel methodology for forecasting was developed (and demonstrated with reference to the United Kingdom), which predicts drought from drought i.e. uses spatial coherence of drought to facilitate early warning of drought in a target region, from drought which is developing elsewhere in Europe.Whilst the skill of the methodology is relatively modest at present, this approach presents a potential new avenue for forecasting, which offers significant advantages in that it allows prediction for all seasons, and also shows some potential for forecasting the termination of drought conditions.

Spatial coherence does not affect contrast discrimination for multiple Gabor stimuli

Gestalt grouping rules imply a process or mechanism for grouping together local features of an object into a perceptual whole. Several psychophysical experiments have been interpreted as evidence for constrained interactions between nearby spatial filter elements and this has led to the hypothesis that element linking might be mediated by these interactions. A common tacit assumption is that these interactions result in response modulation which disturbs a local contrast code. We addressed this possibility by performing contrast discrimination experiments using two-dimensional arrays of multiple Gabor patches arranged either (i) vertically, (ii) in circles (coherent conditions), or (iii) randomly (incoherent condition), as well as for a single Gabor patch. In each condition, contrast increments were applied to either the entire test stimulus (experiment 1) or a single patch whose position was cued (experiment 2). In experiment 3, the texture stimuli were reduced to a single contour by displaying only the central vertical strip. Performance was better for the multiple-patch conditions than for the single-patch condition, but whether the multiple-patch stimulus was coherent or not had no systematic effect on the results in any of the experiments. We conclude that constrained local interactions do not interfere with a local contrast code for our suprathreshold stimuli, suggesting that, in general, this is not the way in which element linking is achieved. The possibility that interactions are involved in enhancing the detectability of contour elements at threshold remains unchallenged by our experiments.

Coherence characteristics of random lasing in a dye doped hybrid powder

The photon statistics of the random laser emission of a Rhodamine B doped di-ureasil hybrid powder is investigated to evaluate its degree of coherence above threshold. Although the random laser emission is a weighted average of spatially uncorrelated radiation emitted at different positions in the sample, a spatial coherence control was achieved due to an improved detection configuration based on spatial filtering. By using this experimental approach, which also allows for fine mode discrimination and timeresolved analysis of uncoupled modes from mode competition, an area not larger than the expected coherence size of the random laser is probed. Once the spectral and temporal behavior of nonoverlapping modes is characterized, an assessment of the photon-number probability distribution and the resulting second-order correlation coefficient as a function of time delay and wavelength was performed. The outcome of our single photon counting measurements revealed a high degree of temporal coherence at the time of maximum pump intensity and at wavelengths around the Rhodamine B gain maximum.

The Evolution of Population Distribution on the Iberian Peninsula: A Transnational Approach (1877–2001)

Surpassing the national perspective usually adopted, the authors confirmed the existence of a pattern of population distribution common to the whole Iberian Peninsula in the long run. This pattern is clearly associated with geographical factors. These variables seem to have more weight in explaining changes between 1877/78 and 1940 than in the period from 1940 to 2001. The observation of the cross-border region has shown that proximity to the frontier has not generated any distinct pattern of population density on either side of the boundary line. The spatial coherence of the observed phenomena throughout the Peninsula and of its evolution, independent of the border between states, reinforces the importance of geographic factors in their explanation. At the same time, this verification opens up new issues related to the effect of national political and economic policies.

Structured sparsity for spatially coherent fibre orientation estimation in diffusion MRI.

We propose a novel formulation to solve the problem of intra-voxel reconstruction of the fibre orientation distribution function (FOD) in each voxel of the white matter of the brain from diffusion MRI data. The majority of the state-of-the-art methods in the field perform the reconstruction on a voxel-by-voxel level, promoting sparsity of the orientation distribution. Recent methods have proposed a global denoising of the diffusion data using spatial information prior to reconstruction, while others promote spatial regularisation through an additional empirical prior on the diffusion image at each q-space point. Our approach reconciles voxelwise sparsity and spatial regularisation and defines a spatially structured FOD sparsity prior, where the structure originates from the spatial coherence of the fibre orientation between neighbour voxels. The method is shown, through both simulated and real data, to enable accurate FOD reconstruction from a much lower number of q-space samples than the state of the art, typically 15 samples, even for quite adverse noise conditions.

Effet de la microstructure sur les propriétés excitoniques des polymères semi-conducteurs semi-cristallins

Les polymères semi-conducteurs semicristallins sont utilisés au sein de diodes électroluminescentes, transistors ou dispositifs photovoltaïques organiques. Ces matériaux peuvent être traités à partir de solutions ou directement à partir de leur état solide et forment des agrégats moléculaires dont la morphologie dicte en grande partie leurs propriétés optoélectroniques. Le poly(3-hexylthiophène) est un des polymères semi-conducteurs les plus étudiés. Lorsque le poids moléculaire (Mw) des chaînes est inférieur à 50 kg/mol, la microstructure est polycristalline et composée de chaînes formant des empilements-π. Lorsque Mw>50 kg/mol, la morphologie est semicristalline et composée de domaines cristallins imbriquées dans une matrice de chaînes amorphes. À partir de techniques de spectroscopie en continu et ultrarapide et appuyé de modèles théoriques, nous démontrons que la cohérence spatiale des excitons dans ce matériau est légèrement anisotrope et dépend de Mw. Ceci nous permet d’approfondir la compréhension de la relation intime entre le couplage inter et intramoléculaire sur la forme spectrale en absorption et photoluminescence. De plus, nous démontrons que les excitations photogénérées directement aux interfaces entre les domaines cristallins et les régions amorphes génèrent des paires de polarons liés qui se recombinent par effet tunnel sur des échelles de temps supérieures à 10ns. Le taux de photoluminescence à long temps de vie provenant de ces paires de charges dépend aussi de Mw et varie entre ∼10% et ∼40% pour les faibles et hauts poids moléculaires respectivement. Nous fournissons un modèle permettant d’expliquer le processus de photogénération des paires de polarons et nous élucidons le rôle de la microstructure sur la dynamique de séparation et recombinaison de ces espèces.

Spatio-temporal resolution studies on a highly compact ultrafast electron diffractometer

Time-resolved diffraction with femtosecond electron pulses has become a promising technique to directly provide insights into photo induced primary dynamics at the atomic level in molecules and solids. Ultrashort pulse duration as well as extensive spatial coherence are desired, however, space charge effects complicate the bunching of multiple electrons in a single pulse.Weexperimentally investigate the interplay between spatial and temporal aspects of resolution limits in ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) on our highly compact transmission electron diffractometer. To that end, the initial source size and charge density of electron bunches are systematically manipulated and the resulting bunch properties at the sample position are fully characterized in terms of lateral coherence, temporal width and diffracted intensity.Weobtain a so far not reported measured overall temporal resolution of 130 fs (full width at half maximum) corresponding to 60 fs (root mean square) and transversal coherence lengths up to 20 nm. Instrumental impacts on the effective signal yield in diffraction and electron pulse brightness are discussed as well. The performance of our compactUEDsetup at selected electron pulse conditions is finally demonstrated in a time-resolved study of lattice heating in multilayer graphene after optical excitation.

Can the frequency of blocking be described by a red noise process?

The frequency of persistent atmospheric blocking events in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is compared with the blocking frequency produced by a simple first-order Markov model designed to predict the time evolution of a blocking index [defined by the meridional contrast of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface (1 PVU ≡ 1 × 10−6 K m2 kg−1 s−1)]. With the observed spatial coherence built into the model, it is able to reproduce the main regions of blocking occurrence and the frequencies of sector blocking very well. This underlines the importance of the climatological background flow in determining the locations of high blocking occurrence as being the regions where the mean midlatitude meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is weak. However, when only persistent blocking episodes are considered, the model is unable to simulate the observed frequencies. It is proposed that this persistence beyond that given by a red noise model is due to the self-sustaining nature of the blocking phenomenon.

Multi-year droughts in Europe: analysis of development and causes

Whilst hydrological systems can show resilience to short-term streamflow deficiencies during within-year droughts, prolonged deficits during multi-year droughts are a significant threat to water resources security in Europe. This study uses a threshold-based objective classification of regional hydrological drought to qualitatively examine the characteristics, spatio-temporal evolution and synoptic climatic drivers of multi-year drought events in 1962–64, 1975–76 and 1995–97, on a European scale but with particular focus on the UK. Whilst all three events are multi-year, pan-European phenomena, their development and causes can be contrasted. The critical factor in explaining the unprecedented severity of the 1975–76 event is the consecutive occurrence of winter and summer drought. In contrast, 1962–64 was a succession of dry winters, mitigated by quiescent summers, whilst 1995–97 lacked spatial coherence and was interrupted by wet interludes. Synoptic climatic conditions vary within and between multi-year droughts, suggesting that regional factors modulate the climate signal in streamflow drought occurrence. Despite being underpinned by qualitatively similar climatic conditions and commonalities in evolution and characteristics, each of the three droughts has a unique spatio-temporal signature. An improved understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution and characteristics of multi-year droughts has much to contribute to monitoring and forecasting capability, and to improved mitigation strategies.

Self-organized 40Hz synchronization in a physiological theory of EEG

We present evidence that large-scale spatial coherence of 40 Hz oscillations can emerge dynamically in a cortical mean field theory. The simulated synchronization time scale is about 150 ms, which compares well with experimental data on large-scale integration during cognitive tasks. The same model has previously provided consistent descriptions of the human EEG at rest, with tranquilizers, under anesthesia, and during anesthetic-induced epileptic seizures. The emergence of coherent gamma band activity is brought about by changing just one physiological parameter until cortex becomes marginally unstable for a small range of wavelengths. This suggests for future study a model of dynamic computation at the edge of cortical stability.

Improving climate change detection through optimal seasonal averaging: the case of the North Atlantic jet and European precipitation

The detection of anthropogenic climate change can be improved by recognising the seasonality in the climate change response. This is demonstrated for the North Atlantic jet (zonal wind at 850 hPa, U850) and European precipitation responses projected by the CMIP5 climate models. The U850 future response is characterised by a marked seasonality: an eastward extension of the North Atlantic jet into Europe in November-April, and a poleward shift in May-October. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the multi-model mean response in U850 in these two extended seasonal means emerges by 2035-2040 for the lower--latitude features and by 2050-2070 for the higher--latitude features, relative to the 1960-1990 climate. This is 5-15 years earlier than when evaluated in the traditional meteorological seasons (December--February, June--August), and it results from an increase in the signal to noise ratio associated with the spatial coherence of the response within the extended seasons. The annual mean response lacks important information on the seasonality of the response without improving the signal to noise ratio. The same two extended seasons are demonstrated to capture the seasonality of the European precipitation response to climate change and to anticipate its emergence by 10-20 years. Furthermore, some of the regional responses, such as the Mediterranean precipitation decline and the U850 response in North Africa in the extended winter, are projected to emerge by 2020-2025, according to the models with a strong response. Therefore, observations might soon be useful to test aspects of the atmospheric circulation response predicted by some of the CMIP5 models.

Selecting algorithms for Earth observation of climate within the European Space Agency Climate Change initiative: introduction to a special issue

This special issue is focused on the assessment of algorithms for the observation of Earth’s climate from environ- mental satellites. Climate data records derived by remote sensing are increasingly a key source of insight into the workings of and changes in Earth’s climate system. Producers of data sets must devote considerable effort and expertise to maximise the true climate signals in their products and minimise effects of data processing choices and changing sensors. A key choice is the selection of algorithm(s) for classification and/or retrieval of the climate variable. Within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, science teams undertook systematic assessment of algorithms for a range of essential climate variables. The papers in the special issue report some of these exercises (for ocean colour, aerosol, ozone, greenhouse gases, clouds, soil moisture, sea surface temper- ature and glaciers). The contributions show that assessment exercises must be designed with care, considering issues such as the relative importance of different aspects of data quality (accuracy, precision, stability, sensitivity, coverage, etc.), the availability and degree of independence of validation data and the limitations of validation in characterising some important aspects of data (such as long-term stability or spatial coherence). As well as re- quiring a significant investment of expertise and effort, systematic comparisons are found to be highly valuable. They reveal the relative strengths and weaknesses of different algorithmic approaches under different observa- tional contexts, and help ensure that scientific conclusions drawn from climate data records are not influenced by observational artifacts, but are robust.

3D face computational photography using PCA spaces

In this paper, we present a 3D face photography system based on a facial expression training dataset, composed of both facial range images (3D geometry) and facial texture (2D photography). The proposed system allows one to obtain a 3D geometry representation of a given face provided as a 2D photography, which undergoes a series of transformations through the texture and geometry spaces estimated. In the training phase of the system, the facial landmarks are obtained by an active shape model (ASM) extracted from the 2D gray-level photography. Principal components analysis (PCA) is then used to represent the face dataset, thus defining an orthonormal basis of texture and another of geometry. In the reconstruction phase, an input is given by a face image to which the ASM is matched. The extracted facial landmarks and the face image are fed to the PCA basis transform, and a 3D version of the 2D input image is built. Experimental tests using a new dataset of 70 facial expressions belonging to ten subjects as training set show rapid reconstructed 3D faces which maintain spatial coherence similar to the human perception, thus corroborating the efficiency and the applicability of the proposed system.

Entwicklung kohärenter Lichtquellen im XUV-Regime

Plasmabasierte Röntgenlaser sind aufgrund ihrer kurzen Wellenlänge und schma-rnlen spektralen Bandbreite attraktive Diagnose-Instrumente in einer Vielzahl potentieller Anwendungen, beispielsweise in den Bereichen Spektroskopie, Mikroskopie und EUV-Lithografie. Dennoch sind Röntgenlaser zum heutigen Stand noch nicht sehr weit verbreitet, was vorwiegend auf eine zu geringe Pulsenergie und für manche Anwendungen nicht hinreichende Strahlqualität zurückzuführen ist. In diesem Zusammenhang wurden in den letzten Jahren bedeutende Fortschritte erzielt. Die gleichzeitige Weiterentwicklung von Pumplasersystemen und Pumpmechanismen ermöglichte es, kompakte Röntgenlaserquellen mit bis zu 100 Hz zu betreiben. Um gleichzeitig höhere Pulsenergien, höhere Strahlqualität und volle räumliche Kohärenz zu erhalten, wurden intensive Studien theoretischer und experimenteller Natur durchgeführt. In diesem Kontext wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit ein experimenteller Aufbau zur Kombination von zwei Röntgenlaser-Targets entwickelt, die sogenannte Butterfly-Konfiguration. Der erste Röntgenlaser wird dabei als sogenannter Seed für das zweite, als Verstärker dienende Röntgenlasermedium verwendet (injection-seeding). Aufrndiese Weise werden störende Effekte vermieden, welche beim Entstehungsprozessrndes Röntgenlasers durch die Verstärkung von spontaner Emission zustande kom-rnmen. Unter Verwendung des ebenfalls an der GSI entwickelten Double-Pulse Gra-rnzing Incidence Pumpschemas ermöglicht das hier vorgestellte Konzept, erstmaligrnbeide Röntgenlasertargets effizient und inklusive Wanderwellenanregung zu pum-rnpen.rnBei einer ersten experimentellen Umsetzung gelang die Erzeugung verstärkter Silber-Röntgenlaserpulse von 1 µJ bei 13.9 nm Wellenlänge. Anhand der gewonnenen Daten erfolgte neben dem Nachweis der Verstärkung die Bestimmung der Lebensdauer der Besetzungsinversion zu 3 ps. In einem Nachfolgeexperiment wurden die Eigenschaften eines Molybdän-Röntgenlaserplasmas näher untersucht. Neben dem bisher an der GSI angewandten Pumpschema kam in dieser Strahlzeit noch eine weitere Technik zum Einsatz, welche auf einem zusätzlichen Pumppuls basierte. In beiden Schemata gelang neben dem Nachweis der Verstärkung die zeitliche und räumliche Charakterisierung des Verstärkermediums. Röntgenlaserpulse mit bis zu 240 nJ bei einer Wellenlänge von 18.9 nm wurden nachgewiesen. Die erreichte Brillanz der verstärkten Pulse lag ca. zwei Größenordnungen über der des ursprünglichen Seeds und mehr als eine Größenordnung über der Brillanz eines Röntgenlasers, dessen Erzeugung auf der Verwendung eines einzelnen Targets basierte. Das in dieser Arbeitrnentwickelte und experimentell verifizierte Konzept birgt somit das Potential, extrem brillante plasmabasierte Röntgenlaser mit vollständiger räumlicher und zeitlicher Kohärenz zu erzeugen.rnDie in dieser Arbeit diskutierten Ergebnisse sind ein wesentlicher Beitrag zu der Entwicklung eines Röntgenlasers, der bei spektroskopischen Untersuchungen von hochgeladenen Schwerionen eingesetzt werden soll. Diese Experimente sind amrnExperimentierspeicherring der GSI und zukünftig auch am High-Energy StoragernRing der FAIR-Anlage vorgesehen.rn

Statistics of the received power for free space optical channels

Free space optical (FSO) communication links can experience extreme signal degradation due to atmospheric turbulence induced spatial and temporal irradiance fuctuations (scintillation) in the laser wavefront. In addition, turbulence can cause the laser beam centroid to wander resulting in power fading, and sometimes complete loss of the signal. Spreading of the laser beam and jitter are also artifacts of atmospheric turbulence. To accurately predict the signal fading that occurs in a laser communication system and to get a true picture of how this affects crucial performance parameters like bit error rate (BER) it is important to analyze the probability density function (PDF) of the integrated irradiance fuctuations at the receiver. In addition, it is desirable to find a theoretical distribution that accurately models these ?uctuations under all propagation conditions. The PDF of integrated irradiance fuctuations is calculated from numerical wave-optic simulations of a laser after propagating through atmospheric turbulence to investigate the evolution of the distribution as the aperture diameter is increased. The simulation data distribution is compared to theoretical gamma-gamma and lognormal PDF models under a variety of scintillation regimes from weak to very strong. Our results show that the gamma-gamma PDF provides a good fit to the simulated data distribution for all aperture sizes studied from weak through moderate scintillation. In strong scintillation, the gamma-gamma PDF is a better fit to the distribution for point-like apertures and the lognormal PDF is a better fit for apertures the size of the atmospheric spatial coherence radius ρ0 or larger. In addition, the PDF of received power from a Gaussian laser beam, which has been adaptively compensated at the transmitter before propagation to the receiver of a FSO link in the moderate scintillation regime is investigated. The complexity of the adaptive optics (AO) system is increased in order to investigate the changes in the distribution of the received power and how this affects the BER. For the 10 km link, due to the non-reciprocal nature of the propagation path the optimal beam to transmit is unknown. These results show that a low-order level of complexity in the AO provides a better estimate for the optimal beam to transmit than a higher order for non-reciprocal paths. For the 20 km link distance it was found that, although minimal, all AO complexity levels provided an equivalent improvement in BER and that no AO complexity provided the correction needed for the optimal beam to transmit. Finally, the temporal power spectral density of received power from a FSO communication link is investigated. Simulated and experimental results for the coherence time calculated from the temporal correlation function are presented. Results for both simulation and experimental data show that the coherence time increases as the receiving aperture diameter increases. For finite apertures the coherence time increases as the communication link distance is increased. We conjecture that this is due to the increasing speckle size within the pupil plane of the receiving aperture for an increasing link distance.