Evaluating forensic biology results given source level propositions

The evaluation of forensic evidence can occur at any level within the hierarchy of propositions depending on the question being asked and the amount and type of information that is taken into account within the evaluation. Commonly DNA evidence is reported given propositions that deal with the sub-source level in the hierarchy, which deals only with the possibility that a nominated individual is a source of DNA in a trace (or contributor to the DNA in the case of a mixed DNA trace). We explore the use of information obtained from examinations, presumptive and discriminating tests for body fluids, DNA concentrations and some case circumstances within a Bayesian network in order to provide assistance to the Courts that have to consider propositions at source level. We use a scenario in which the presence of blood is of interest as an exemplar and consider how DNA profiling results and the potential for laboratory error can be taken into account. We finish with examples of how the results of these reports could be presented in court using either numerical values or verbal descriptions of the results.

Evidential relevance in scene to offender transfer cases: development and analysis of a likelihood ratio for offence level propositions

The present paper focuses on the analysis and discussion of a likelihood ratio (LR) development for propositions at a hierarchical level known in the context as 'offence level'. Existing literature on the topic has considered LR developments for so-called offender to scene transfer cases. These settings involve-in their simplest form-a single stain found on a crime scene, but with possible uncertainty about the degree to which that stain is relevant (i.e. that it has been left by the offender). Extensions to multiple stains or multiple offenders have also been reported. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a development of a LR for offence level propositions when case settings involve potential transfer in the opposite direction, i.e. victim/scene to offender transfer. This setting has previously not yet been considered. The rationale behind the proposed LR is illustrated through graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). The role of various uncertain parameters is investigated through sensitivity analyses as well as simulations.

Stabbing simulations and DNA transfer

Technical developments have made it possible to analyze very low amounts of DNA. This has many advantages, but the drawback of this technological progress is that interpretation of the results becomes increasingly complex: the number of mixed DNA profiles increased relatively to single source DNA profiles and stochastic effects in the DNA profile, such as drop-in and drop-out, are more frequently observed. Moreover, the relevance of low template DNA material regarding the activities alleged is not as straightforward as it was a few years ago, when for example large quantities of blood were recovered. The possibility of secondary and tertiary transfer is now becoming an issue. The purpose of this research is twofold: first, to study the transfer of DNA from the handler and secondly, to observe if handlers would transfer DNA from persons closely connected to them. We chose to mimic cases where the offender would attack a person with a knife. As a first approach, we envisaged that the defense would not give an alternative explanation for the origin of the DNA. In our transfer experiments (4 donors, 16 experiments each, 64 traces), 3% of the traces were single DNA profiles. Most of the time, the DNA profile of the person handling the knife was present as the major profile: in 83% of the traces the major contributor profile corresponded to the stabber's DNA profile (in single stains and mixtures). Mixture with no clear major/minor fraction (12%) were observed. 5% of the traces were considered of insufficient quality (more than 3 contributors, presence of a few minor peaks). In that case, we considered that the stabber's DNA was absent. In our experiments, no traces allowed excluding the stabber, however it must be noted that precautions were taken to minimize background DNA as knives were cleaned before the experiments. DNA profiles of the stabber's colleagues were not observed. We hope that this study will allow for a better understanding of the transfer mechanism and of how to assess and describe results given activity level propositions. In this preliminary research, we have focused on the transfer of DNA on the hand of the person. Besides, more research is needed to assign the probability of the results given an alternative activity proposed by the defense, for instance when the source of the DNA is not contested, but that the activities are.

A practical guide for the formulation of propositions in the bayesian approach to DNA evidence interpretation in an adversarial environment

The interpretation of complex DNA profiles is facilitated by a Bayesian approach. This approach requires the development of a pair of propositions: one aligned to the prosecution case and one to the defense case. This note explores the issue of proposition setting in an adversarial environment by a series of examples. A set of guidelines generalize how to formulate propositions when there is a single person of interest and when there are multiple individuals of interest. Additional explanations cover how to handle multiple defense propositions, relatives, and the transition from subsource level to activity level propositions. The propositions depend on case information and the allegations of each of the parties. The prosecution proposition is usually known. The authors suggest that a sensible proposition is selected for the defense that is consistent with their stance, if available, and consistent with a realistic defense if their position is not known.

Human and embodied energy analysis applied to water source protection and household water treatment interventions used in Mali, West Africa

As water quality interventions are scaled up to meet the Millennium Development Goal of halving the proportion of the population without access to safe drinking water by 2015 there has been much discussion on the merits of household- and source-level interventions. This study furthers the discussion by examining specific interventions through the use of embodied human and material energy. Embodied energy quantifies the total energy required to produce and use an intervention, including all upstream energy transactions. This model uses material quantities and prices to calculate embodied energy using national economic input/output-based models from China, the United States and Mali. Embodied energy is a measure of aggregate environmental impacts of the interventions. Human energy quantifies the caloric expenditure associated with the installation and operation of an intervention is calculated using the physical activity ratios (PARs) and basal metabolic rates (BMRs). Human energy is a measure of aggregate social impacts of an intervention. A total of four household treatment interventions – biosand filtration, chlorination, ceramic filtration and boiling – and four water source-level interventions – an improved well, a rope pump, a hand pump and a solar pump – are evaluated in the context of Mali, West Africa. Source-level interventions slightly out-perform household-level interventions in terms of having less total embodied energy. Human energy, typically assumed to be a negligible portion of total embodied energy, is shown to be significant to all eight interventions, and contributing over half of total embodied energy in four of the interventions. Traditional gender roles in Mali dictate the types of work performed by men and women. When the human energy is disaggregated by gender, it is seen that women perform over 99% of the work associated with seven of the eight interventions. This has profound implications for gender equality in the context of water quality interventions, and may justify investment in interventions that reduce human energy burdens.

How to assign a likelihood ratio in a footwear mark case: an analysis and discussion in the light of R v T

This article analyses and discusses issues that pertain to the choice of relevant databases for assigning values to the components of evaluative likelihood ratio procedures at source level. Although several formal likelihood ratio developments currently exist, both case practitioners and recipients of expert information (such as judiciary) may be reluctant to consider them as a framework for evaluating scientific evidence in context. The recent ruling R v T and ensuing discussions in many forums provide illustrative examples for this. In particular, it is often felt that likelihood ratio-based reasoning amounts to an application that requires extensive quantitative information along with means for dealing with technicalities related to the algebraic formulation of these approaches. With regard to this objection, this article proposes two distinct discussions. In a first part, it is argued that, from a methodological point of view, there are additional levels of qualitative evaluation that are worth considering prior to focusing on particular numerical probability assignments. Analyses will be proposed that intend to show that, under certain assumptions, relative numerical values, as opposed to absolute values, may be sufficient to characterize a likelihood ratio for practical and pragmatic purposes. The feasibility of such qualitative considerations points out that the availability of hard numerical data is not a necessary requirement for implementing a likelihood ratio approach in practice. It is further argued that, even if numerical evaluations can be made, qualitative considerations may be valuable because they can further the understanding of the logical underpinnings of an assessment. In a second part, the article will draw a parallel to R v T by concentrating on a practical footwear mark case received at the authors' institute. This case will serve the purpose of exemplifying the possible usage of data from various sources in casework and help to discuss the difficulty associated with reconciling the depth of theoretical likelihood ratio developments and limitations in the degree to which these developments can actually be applied in practice.

Image processing of false identity documents for forensic intelligence

Forensic intelligence has recently gathered increasing attention as a potential expansion of forensic science that may contribute in a wider policing and security context. Whilst the new avenue is certainly promising, relatively few attempts to incorporate models, methods and techniques into practical projects are reported. This work reports a practical application of a generalised and transversal framework for developing forensic intelligence processes referred to here as the Transversal model adapted from previous work. Visual features present in the images of four datasets of false identity documents were systematically profiled and compared using image processing for the detection of a series of modus operandi (M.O.) actions. The nature of these series and their relation to the notion of common source was evaluated with respect to alternative known information and inferences drawn regarding respective crime systems. 439 documents seized by police and border guard authorities across 10 jurisdictions in Switzerland with known and unknown source level links formed the datasets for this study. Training sets were developed based on both known source level data, and visually supported relationships. Performance was evaluated through the use of intra-variability and inter-variability scores drawn from over 48,000 comparisons. The optimised method exhibited significant sensitivity combined with strong specificity and demonstrates its ability to support forensic intelligence efforts.

Acoustic radiation and scattering from cylindrical bodies and analysis of transducer arrays

New mathematical methods to analytically investigate linear acoustic radiation and scattering from cylindrical bodies and transducer arrays are presented. Three problems of interest involving cylinders in an infinite fluid are studied. In all the three problems, the Helmholtz equation is used to model propagation through the fluid and the beam patterns of arrays of transducers are studied. In the first problem, a method is presented to determine the omni-directional and directional far-field pressures radiated by a cylindrical transducer array in an infinite rigid cylindrical baffle. The solution to the Helmholtz equation and the displacement continuity condition at the interface between the array and the surrounding water are used to determine the pressure. The displacement of the surface of each transducer is in the direction of the normal to the array and is assumed to be uniform. Expressions are derived for the pressure radiated by a sector of the array vibrating in-phase, the entire array vibrating in-phase, and a sector of the array phase-shaded to simulate radiation from a rectangular piston. It is shown that the uniform displacement required for generating a source level of 220 dB ref. μPa @ 1m that is omni directional in the azimuthal plane is in the order of 1 micron for typical arrays. Numerical results are presented to show that there is only a small difference between the on-axis pressures radiated by phased cylindrical arrays and planar arrays. The problem is of interest because cylindrical arrays of projectors are often used to search for underwater objects. In the second problem, the errors, when using data-independent, classical, energy and split beam correlation methods, in finding the direction of arrival (DOA) of a plane acoustic wave, caused by the presence of a solid circular elastic cylindrical stiffener near a linear array of hydrophones, are investigated. Scattering from the effectively infinite cylinder is modeled using the exact axisymmetric equations of motion and the total pressures at the hydrophone locations are computed. The effect of the radius of the cylinder, a, the distance between the cylinder and the array, b, the number of hydrophones in the array, 2H, and the angle of incidence of the wave, α, on the error in finding the DOA are illustrated using numerical results. For an array that is about 30 times the wavelength and for small angles of incidence (α<10), the error in finding the DOA using the energy method is less than that using the split beam correlation method with beam steered to α; and in some cases, the error increases when b increases; and the errors in finding the DOA using the energy method and the split beam correlation method with beam steered to α vary approximately as a7 / 4 . The problem is of interest because elastic stiffeners – in nearly acoustically transparent sonar domes that are used to protect arrays of transducers – scatter waves that are incident on it and cause an error in the estimated direction of arrival of the wave. In the third problem, a high-frequency ray-acoustics method is presented and used to determine the interior pressure field when a plane wave is normally incident on a fluid cylinder embedded in another infinite fluid. The pressure field is determined by using geometrical and physical acoustics. The interior pressure is expressed as the sum of the pressures due to all rays that pass through a point. Numerical results are presented for ka = 20 to 100 where k is the acoustic wavenumber of the exterior fluid and a is the radius of the cylinder. The results are in good agreement with those obtained using field theory. The directional responses, to the plane wave, of sectors of a circular array of uniformly distributed hydrophones in the embedded cylinder are then computed. The sectors are used to simulate linear arrays with uniformly distributed normals by using delays. The directional responses are compared with the output from an array in an infinite homogenous fluid. These outputs are of interest as they are used to determine the direction of arrival of the plane wave. Numerical results are presented for a circular array with 32 hydrophones and 12 hydrophones in each sector. The problem is of interest because arrays of hydrophones are housed inside sonar domes and acoustic plane waves from distant sources are scattered by the dome filled with fresh water and cause deterioration in the performance of the array.

Validation of Two Methods of Data Collection of Self-Reported Medicine Use Among the Elderly

The accuracy of medicine use information was compared for a telephone interview and mail questionnaire, using an in-home medicine check as the standard of assessment The validity of medicine use information varied by data source, level of specificity of data, and respondent characteristics. The mail questionnaire was the more valid source of overall medicine use information. Implications for both service providers and researchers are provided.

Using attributed variables in the implementation of concurrent and parallel logic programming systems

Incorporating the possibility of attaching attributes to variables in a logic programming system has been shown to allow the addition of general constraint solving capabilities to it. This approach is very attractive in that by adding a few primitives any logic programming system can be turned into a generic constraint logic programming system in which constraint solving can be user deñned, and at source level - an extreme example of the "glass box" approach. In this paper we propose a different and novel use for the concept of attributed variables: developing a generic parallel/concurrent (constraint) logic programming system, using the same "glass box" flavor. We argüe that a system which implements attributed variables and a few additional primitives can be easily customized at source level to implement many of the languages and execution models of parallelism and concurrency currently proposed, in both shared memory and distributed systems. We illustrate this through examples and report on an implementation of our ideas.

On the uses of attributed variables in parallel and concurrent logic programming systems

Incorporating the possibility of attaching attributes to variables in a logic programming system has been shown to allow the addition of general constraint solving capabilities to it. This approach is very attractive in that by adding a few primitives any logic programming system can be turned into a generic constraint logic programming system in which constraint solving can be user defined, and at source level - an extreme example of the "glass box" approach. In this paper we propose a different and novel use for the concept of attributed variables: developing a generic parallel/concurrent (constraint) logic programming system, using the same "glass box" flavor. We argüe that a system which implements attributed variables and a few additional primitives can be easily customized at source level to implement many of the languages and execution models of parallelism and concurrency currently proposed, in both shared memory and distributed systems. We illustrate this through examples.

The ciao prolog system

Ciao is a public domain, next generation multi-paradigm programming environment with a unique set of features: Ciao offers a complete Prolog system, supporting ISO-Prolog, but its novel modular design allows both restricting and extending the language. As a result, it allows working with fully declarative subsets of Prolog and also to extend these subsets (or ISO-Prolog) both syntactically and semantically. Most importantly, these restrictions and extensions can be activated separately on each program module so that several extensions can coexist in the same application for different modules. Ciao also supports (through such extensions) programming with functions, higher-order (with predicate abstractions), constraints, and objects, as well as feature terms (records), persistence, several control rules (breadth-first search, iterative deepening, ...), concurrency (threads/engines), a good base for distributed execution (agents), and parallel execution. Libraries also support WWW programming, sockets, external interfaces (C, Java, TclTk, relational databases, etc.), etc. Ciao offers support for programming in the large with a robust module/object system, module-based separate/incremental compilation (automatically -no need for makefiles), an assertion language for declaring (optional) program properties (including types and modes, but also determinacy, non-failure, cost, etc.), automatic static inference and static/dynamic checking of such assertions, etc. Ciao also offers support for programming in the small producing small executables (including only those builtins used by the program) and support for writing scripts in Prolog. The Ciao programming environment includes a classical top-level and a rich emacs interface with an embeddable source-level debugger and a number of execution visualization tools. The Ciao compiler (which can be run outside the top level shell) generates several forms of architecture-independent and stand-alone executables, which run with speed, efficiency and executable size which are very competive with other commercial and academic Prolog/CLP systems. Library modules can be compiled into compact bytecode or C source files, and linked statically, dynamically, or autoloaded. The novel modular design of Ciao enables, in addition to modular program development, effective global program analysis and static debugging and optimization via source to source program transformation. These tasks are performed by the Ciao preprocessor ( ciaopp, distributed separately). The Ciao programming environment also includes lpdoc, an automatic documentation generator for LP/CLP programs. It processes Prolog files adorned with (Ciao) assertions and machine-readable comments and generates manuals in many formats including postscript, pdf, texinfo, info, HTML, man, etc. , as well as on-line help, ascii README files, entries for indices of manuals (info, WWW, ...), and maintains WWW distribution sites.

Reversible language extensions and their application in debugging

A range of methodologies and techniques are available to guide the design and implementation of language extensions and domainspecific languages. A simple yet powerful technique is based on source-tosource transformations interleaved across the compilation passes of a base language. Despite being a successful approach, it has the main drawback that the input source code is lost in the process. When considering the whole workflow of program development (warning and error reporting, debugging, or even program analysis), program translations are no more powerful than a glorified macro language. In this paper, we propose an augmented approach to language extensions for Prolog, where symbolic annotations are included in the target program. These annotations allow selectively reversing the translated code. We illustrate the approach by showing that coupling it with minimal extensions to a generic Prolog debugger allows us to provide users with a familiar, source-level view during the debugging of programs which use a variety of language extensions, such as functional notation, DCGs, or CLP{Q,R}.

Oscillatory beta activity mediates neuroplastic effects of motor cortex stimulation in humans

Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) is a repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation protocol that can inhibithumanmotor cortex (M1) excitability and impair movement for ≤1 h. While offering valuable insights into brain function and potential therapeutic benefits, these neuroplastic effects are highly variable between individuals. The source of this variability, and the electrophysiological mechanisms underlying the inhibitory after-effects, are largely unknown. In this regard, oscillatory activity at beta frequency (15-35 Hz) is of particular interest as it is elevated in motor disorders such as Parkinson's disease and modulated during the generation of movements. Here, we used a source-level magnetoencephalography approach to investigate the hypothesis that the presence of neuroplastic effects following cTBS is associated with concurrent changes in oscillatory M1 beta activity. M1 cortices were localized with a synthetic aperture magnetometry beamforming analysis of visually cued index finger movements. Virtual electrode analysis was used to reconstruct the spontaneous and movement-related oscillatory activity in bilateral M1 cortices, before and from 10 to 45 min after cTBS. We demonstrate that 40 s of cTBS applied over left M1 reduced corticospinal excitability in the right index finger of 8/16 participants. In these responder participants only, cTBS increased the power of the spontaneous beta oscillations in stimulated M1 and delayed reaction times in the contralateral index finger. No further changes were observed in the latency or power of movement-related beta oscillations. These data provide insights into the electrophysiological mechanisms underlying cTBS-mediated impairment of motor function and demonstrate the association between spontaneous oscillatory beta activity in M1 and the inhibition of motor function. © 2013 the authors.