Six party talks desafíos en la implementación de la política exterior de China (2003-2013)

Este estudio de caso se centra en los esfuerzos de China por reanudar los Six Party Talks o Diálogos a Seis Bandas que son considerados como la opción más viable para tratar la situación nuclear en la península coreana.

Failure to relaunch? The United States, nuclear North Korea, and the future of the six-party talks

During the past twenty years, Washington has oscillated between tentative engagement with Pyongyang under the Clinton administration and isolation and multilateralism under the Bush administration. With the Obama administration almost nearing its four-year tenure, the Six-Party Talks have stalled and North Korea's multiple attacks on the South in 2010 have created new instabilities. Why so little results despite promises of a radical departure away from the Axis of Evil rhetoric and hard-line politics? This paper suggests that the Obama administration has utilized approaches that no longer fit current circumstances and hence failed to create an original, coherent and effective foreign policy. © 2012 McFarland & Company, Inc.

Multilateralismo y minilateralismo en el orden regional de Asia oriental : un análisis de las conversaciones a seis bandas

Esta memoria parte del estudio de la teoría de las Relaciones Internacionales, seguido de un análisis del regionalismo en el Este asiático, así como del multilateralismo y del minilateralismo como modus operandi en las relaciones internacionales y su desarrollo específico en el Noreste asiático, o Asia oriental. Todo ello se ha examinado con el fin de poder aprehender la dinámica internacional de la segunda crisis nuclear con Corea del Norte, así como proveer con un mayor entendimiento sobre las conversaciones a seis bandas (6PT), como ejemplo de foro de negociación minilateral creado ad hoc con el fin de buscar una solución al problema norcoreano. Hemos procedido al examen del pensamiento estratégico de los diferentes países que conforman las 6PT, así como al estudio de los intereses, acuerdos y desacuerdos de cada uno de ellos en la mesa de negociaciones con el objetivo de intentar comprender el porqué de su aparente fracaso a la hora de solucionar dicha crisis nuclear. Finalmente, hemos procedido a un estudio de la comunidad del Noreste asiático y del marco de seguridad existente en la región, así como de las perspectivas para la institucionalización de las conversaciones a seis bandas para poder comprender si, desarrollado como organización multilateral, este foro podría favorecer la estabilidad en la región, la cooperación regional y con ello una mayor integración.

The DPRK in China's post-cold war foreign policy - a neoclassical realist analysis

Avec l’échec des négociations entre les États-Unis et la Corée du Nord, menées depuis le début des années 1990, sur la question du nucléaire, le problème est devenu graduellement l’affaire des pays voisins, tous soucieux de l’avenir de la région du sud-est asiatique. Présentée comme le seul allié de la Corée du Nord, la China a été invitée à participer à des négociations à trois, à quatre (1997-1998), et à six (2003-2007), dans l’espoir de faire entendre raison au régime isolé, mais jusqu’à maintenant, aucune des tentatives n’est parvenue à satisfaire chacun des membres à la table. Alors que la tension monte et que la politique américaine se fait de moins en moins flexible, la Chine quant à elle, continue d’encourager le retour des négociations à six (Six-Party Talks) dans l’optique de dénucléariser la péninsule coréenne, tout en travaillant à maintenir ses liens avec la Corée du Nord. Le fil conducteur de cette présente recherche est d’abord d’essayer de comprendre pourquoi la Chine continue de soutenir la Corée du Nord, fournissant dons alimentaires et financiers. L’idée est donc d’analyser, selon les principes du réalisme néoclassique, la politique étrangère de la Chine. L’hypothèse principale de cette théorie renvoie à l’idée que la distribution du pouvoir dans le système international influence la politique étrangère des États, mais que des variables au niveau de l’état et/ou de l’individu interviennent dans la formulation et l’application de celle-ci. Il est proposé ici que le lien entre l’unipolarité du système international et la politique nord-coréenne de la Chine, est façonné par des variables intermédiaires telles que : a) la perception des leaders de la distribution du pouvoir et de leur place dans le système international; b) l’idéologie du régime politique, et; c) le type d’unité responsable de la prise de décision en politique étrangère. L’analyse de chacune des variables permettra de faire la lumière sur les intérêts politiques et économiques de la Chine dans l’entretien de cette relation avec la Corée du Nord.

Análisis de los intereses geoestratégicos de China y Estados Unidos en Corea del Sur tras el programa nuclear de Corea del Norte

La península coreana ha sido desde la Guerra Fría y a la actualidad una zona convulsionada por intereses políticos, económicos e ideológicos. Ese panorama obliga un análisis sobre la configuración y los cambios que se han dado entre las potencias actuales, China y Estados Unidos, desde la existencia de un programa nuclear norcoreano que afecta a Corea del Sur y la definición de los intereses de Beijin y Washington.

Análisis del fortalecimiento de la Alianza de Estados Unidos y Corea del Sur en materia de seguridad sobre las acciones militares de Corea del Norte; 2005-2010

La proliferación de armas de destrucción masiva se ha convertido en un asunto inquietante en la era de la posguerra fría. En el caso particular de Corea del Norte, el desarrollo de un programa nuclear y la amenaza potencial que este representa para la comunidad internacional, ha llevado a que Estados Unidos y Corea del Sur pongan de manifiesto su interés y preocupación en torno al mismo. Desde el 2005 el régimen comunista norcoreano ha intensificado las amenazas y ha desafiado la seguridad en la península coreana, al realizar acciones militares provocativas, más específicamente en contra de Corea del Sur y Estados Unidos, razón por la cual una cohesión de la relación entre estos dos Estados se ha hecho cada vez más necesaria para hacer frente a las acciones impredecibles de Corea del Norte.

Disputa territorial por las Islas Dokdo en las relaciones políticas entre Corea del Sur y Japón (2005-2012)

Las relaciones políticas y económicas entre Corea del Sur y Japón pasaban por su mejor momento en los primeros años del siglo XXI, cuando la disputa territorial por las islas Dokdo, un grupo de islotes ubicados en el mar de Japón y que por décadas han simbolizado el fin de la ocupación del país nipón en territorio coreano, causara nuevas y significativas tensionen entre los dos países. Dicho fenómeno, se sugiere fundamental en la comprensión de las nuevas relaciones bilaterales entre los dos actores y se presenta como foco de análisis en la presente monografía. El documento, presenta un análisis descriptivo de la disputa territorial por las Islas y de sus efectos en las relaciones entre los dos países, tanto en los ámbitos político, social y económico.

Los intereses estratégicos de EEUU, Rusia, China y Japón como determinantes de la estrategia de mantenimiento de la Estructura en la Península Coreana. 2003-2013.

El propósito principal de esta monografía es ofrecer una perspectiva crítica sobre el conflicto latente en la Península Coreana, haciendo un acercamiento al mismo desde un marco teórico asentado en el realismo estructural de Kenneth Waltz. De este modo, se busca responder a cuestiones sobre los intereses estatales como fundamento básico de las estrategias de mantenimiento de la Estructura en regiones geopolíticamente sensibles. Al final, se llega a la conclusión afirmando que la Estructura ejerce una serie de funciones para garantizar su preservación mediante una acción de convergencia en la conducta de los Estados. Esta realidad ha mantenido a la Península Coreana sin un conflicto bélico en los últimos 50 años, muy a pesar de estar al borde del mismo en varias ocasiones, ya que de llegarse a presentar se rompería la estabilidad de la región, y por ende el Equilibrio de Poderes estaría en grave riesgo.

North Korea's Nuclear Weapon Program : A Critical Analysis

North Korea's regime has one goal, to guarantee its survival. To accomplish that goal it desired the U.S. to maintain a strong presence on the Korean Peninsula to act as an international deterrent against possible foreign occupation of its nation. The DPRK encouraged the U.S. by signing the 1994 Agreed Framework, a formal commitment between the two countries that froze North Korea's nuclear programs in exchange for U.S. energy aid. In 2002 the Bush Administration did not honour its commitment and blamed North Korea for the Agreed Framework's collapse. North Korea retaliated by choosing to become a nuclear nation, an action guaranteed to insure a constant U.S. presence on the Korean Peninsula.

The Kim Dynasty and North-East Asian security:breaking the cycle of crises?

Purpose—This article considers North Korea and the notion of crisis, by linking historical development over the Korean peninsula to the conflict resolution literature, and investigates why despite a large number of destabilizing events, a war involving Pyongyang has yet to erupt. Design/methodology—This article uses historical data and a framework developed by Aggarwal et al., in order to highlight patterns of interaction between states such as the United States, North Korea and South Korea, organizations such as the United Nations, as well as processes such as the Six- Party Talks and the Agreed Framework. The article then develops a crisis framework based on conflict resolution and negotiation literature, and applies it to three North Korean administrations. Findings—Findings suggest that an open- ended understanding of time (for all parties involved on the peninsula) leads to an impossibility to reach a threshold where full- scale war would be triggered, thus leaving parties in a stable state of crisis for which escalating moves and de- escalating techniques might become irrelevant. Practical implications—It is hoped that this article will help further endeavors linking conflict resolution theoretical frameworks to the Korean peninsula security situation. In the case of the Korean peninsula, time has been understood as open-ended, leading parties to a lingering state of heightened hostilities that oscillates toward war, but that is controlled enough not to reach it. In-depth analysis of particular security sectors such as nuclear energy, food security, or missile testing would prove particularly useful in understanding the complexity of the Korean peninsula situation to a greater extent. It is hoped that this paper will help further endeavours linking conflict resolution theoretical frameworks to the Korean peninsula security situation. Originality/value—This research suggests that regarding the Korean peninsula, time has been understood as open- ended, leading parties to a lingering state of heightened.

The Kim Dynasty and North-East Asian security:breaking the cycle of crises

This article considers North Korea and the notion of crisis, by linking historical development over the Korean peninsula to the conflict resolution literature, and investigates why despite a large number of destabilising events, a war involving Pyongyang has yet to erupt. The paper considers historical data and uses a framework developed by Aggarwal et al. in order to highlight patterns of interaction between states such as the United States, North Korea and South Korea, organisations such as the United Nations, as well as processes such as the Six-Party Talk and the Agreed Framework. The paper then develops a crisis framework based on conflict resolution and negotiation literature, and applies it to three North Korean administrations. Findings suggests that an elastic understanding of time (for all parties involved on the peninsula) leads to an impossibility to reach a threshold where full-scale war would be triggered, thus leaving parties in a stable state of crisis for which escalating moves and de-escalating techniques might become irrelevant.

Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.