Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani in the isolated rat muscle: a multiple comparison study using simultaneous confidence intervals

In the present work a comparative quantitative evaluation of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani was performed, encompassing: atracurium, cisatracurium, mivacurium, pancuronium, rocuronium and vecuronium. The sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat was used, in vitro. Twitches were evoked at 0.1 Hz and tetani at 50 Hz. The differential effects of the studied compounds on twitches and tetani were statistically compared using simultaneous confidence intervals for the ratios between mean IC(50) for the block of twitches and mean IC(50) for the block of tetani. The results of ratios of mean IC(50) together with their corresponding 95% simultaneous confidence intervals were: vecuronium: 2.5 (1.8-3.5); mivacurium: 3.8 (3.0-4.9); pancuronium: 3.9 (2.0-7.6); rocuronium: 6.1 (3.8-9.9); atracurium: 9.0 (6.4-12.6); cisatracurium: 13.1 (6.0-28.4). Using the criteria that neuromuscular blockers displaying disjunct confidence intervals for the ratios of mean IC(50) differ statistically with regard to differential effects on twitches and tetani, significant differences in ratios of IC(50) were detected in the following cases: vecuronium vs. rocuronium, vs. atracurium and vs. cisatracurium and mivacurium vs: cisatracurium and vs. atracurium. The results show that the magnitude of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani, as evaluated in the present work in the form of ratios of mean IC(50), does not depend on the chemical structure (comparing steroidal and isoquinolinic compounds), but seems to depend on differential pre- and post-synaptic effects of the compounds. It is also suggested that the greater the ability of a compound to block twitches and tetani in a differential manner, the safer is the compound from the clinical anesthesiology viewpoint.

Point-wise confidence interval estimation by neural networks: A comparative study based on automotive engine calibration.

In developing neural network techniques for real world applications it is still very rare to see estimates of confidence placed on the neural network predictions. This is a major deficiency, especially in safety-critical systems. In this paper we explore three distinct methods of producing point-wise confidence intervals using neural networks. We compare and contrast Bayesian, Gaussian Process and Predictive error bars evaluated on real data. The problem domain is concerned with the calibration of a real automotive engine management system for both air-fuel ratio determination and on-line ignition timing. This problem requires real-time control and is a good candidate for exploring the use of confidence predictions due to its safety-critical nature.

Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Approche bayésienne de la construction d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés à partir de courbes simulées

Ce mémoire porte sur la simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés dans un contexte bayésien. Dans un premier temps, nous nous intéresserons à des données de précipitations et des fonctions basées sur ces données : la fonction de répartition empirique et la période de retour, une fonction non linéaire de la fonction de répartition. Nous exposerons différentes méthodes déjà connues pour obtenir des intervalles de confiance simultanés sur ces fonctions à l'aide d'une base polynomiale et nous présenterons une méthode de simulation d'intervalles de crédibilité simultanés. Nous nous placerons ensuite dans un contexte bayésien en explorant différents modèles de densité a priori. Pour le modèle le plus complexe, nous aurons besoin d'utiliser la simulation Monte-Carlo pour obtenir les intervalles de crédibilité simultanés a posteriori. Finalement, nous utiliserons une base non linéaire faisant appel à la transformation angulaire et aux splines monotones pour obtenir un intervalle de crédibilité simultané valide pour la période de retour.

Modelling the simultaneous effects of intellectual capital and knowledge management on the organisational performance of Finnish companies

The aim of this study was to contribute to the current knowledge-based theory by focusing on a research gap that exists in the empirically proven determination of the simultaneous but differentiable effects of intellectual capital (IC) assets and knowledge management (KM) practices on organisational performance (OP). The analysis was built on the past research and theoreticised interactions between the latent constructs specified using the survey-based items that were measured from a sample of Finnish companies for IC and KM and the dependent construct for OP determined using information available from financial databases. Two widely used and commonly recommended measures in the literature on management science, i.e. the return on total assets (ROA) and the return on equity (ROE), were calculated for OP. Thus the investigation of the relationship between IC and KM impacting OP in relation to the hypotheses founded was possible to conduct using objectively derived performance indicators. Using financial OP measures also strengthened the dynamic features of data needed in analysing simultaneous and causal dependences between the modelled constructs specified using structural path models. The estimates were obtained for the parameters of structural path models using a partial least squares-based regression estimator. Results showed that the path dependencies between IC and OP or KM and OP were always insignificant when analysed separate to any other interactions or indirect effects caused by simultaneous modelling and regardless of the OP measure used that was either ROA or ROE. The dependency between the constructs for KM and IC appeared to be very strong and was always significant when modelled simultaneously with other possible interactions between the constructs and using either ROA or ROE to define OP. This study, however, did not find statistically unambiguous evidence for proving the hypothesised causal mediation effects suggesting, for instance, that the effects of KM practices on OP are mediated by the IC assets. Due to the fact that some indication about the fluctuations of causal effects was assessed, it was concluded that further studies are needed for verifying the fundamental and likely hidden causal effects between the constructs of interest. Therefore, it was also recommended that complementary modelling and data processing measures be conducted for elucidating whether the mediation effects occur between IC, KM and OP, the verification of which requires further investigations of measured items and can be build on the findings of this study.

Campylobacter spp., Yersinia enterocolitica, and Salmonella enterica and their simultaneous occurrence in German fattening pig herds and their environment.

Campylobacter spp., Salmonella enterica, and Yersinia enterocolitica are common causes of foodborne infections in humans with pork as a potential source. Monitoring programs at farm level are, to date, only implemented for S. enterica, while epidemiological knowledge of the other two pathogens is still lacking. This study aimed to assess the pathogen load (in the pigs' environment) in fattening pig herds, their simultaneous occurrence, and the occurrence of Campylobacter spp. and Y. enterocolitica in herds in different Salmonella risk categories. In 50 fattening pig herds in northern Germany, four pooled fecal samples and 10 swab samples from the pigs' direct environment (pen walls, nipple drinkers), indirect environment (hallways, drive boards), and flies and rodent droppings were collected from each herd and submitted for cultural examination. Campylobacter spp. were detected in 38.1% of fecal, 32.7% of direct environment, 5.3% of indirect environment, and 4.6% of flies/pests samples collected, and Y. enterocolitica in 17.1, 8.1, 1.2, and 3.1% and S. enterica in 11.2, 7.7, 4.1, and 1.5%, respectively. For Campylobacter spp., Y. enterocolitica, and S. enterica, 80, 48, and 32% of herds were positive, respectively; 22 herds were positive for both Campylobacter spp. and Y. enterocolitica, 12 for Campylobacter spp. and S. enterica, and 7 for Y. enterocolitica and S. enterica. There was no significant association between the pathogens at herd level. Campylobacter spp. and Y. enterocolitica were found more often in samples from the low Salmonella risk category (odds ratio, 0.51; confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.73, and 0.3, 0.17 to 0.57), and this was also the case for Y. enterocolitica at herd level (odds ratio, 0.08; confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.3). This study provides evidence that the pigs' environment should be accounted for when implementing control measures on farms against Campylobacter spp. and Y. enterocolitica. An extrapolation from the current Salmonella monitoring to the other two pathogens does not seem feasible.

Rastreamento automatico de trajetorias de jogadores de futebol por videogrametria : validação do metodo e analise dos resultados

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Interval breast cancers in an Australian mammographic screening program

Objective: To determine the incidence of interval cancers which occurred in the first 12 months after mammographic screening at a mammographic screening service. Design: Retrospective analysis of data obtained by crossmatching the screening Service and the New South Wales Central Cancer Registry databases. Setting: The Central & Eastern Sydney Service of BreastScreen NSW. Participants: Women aged 40-69 years at first screen, who attended for their first or second screen between 1 March 1988 and 31 December 1992. Main outcome measures: Interval-cancer rates per 10 000 screens and as a proportion of the underlying incidence of breast cancer (as estimated by the underlying rate in the total NSW population). Results: The 12-month interval-cancer incidence per 10 000 screens was 4.17 for the 40-49 years age group (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.73) and 4.64 for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 2.47-7.94). Proportional incidence rates were 30.1% for the 40-49 years age group (95% CI, 9.8-70.3) and 22% for the 50-69 years age group (95% CI, 11.7-37.7). There was no significant difference between the proportional incidence rate for the 50-69 years age group for the Central & Eastern Sydney Service and those of major successful overseas screening trials. Conclusion: Screening quality was acceptable and should result in a significant mortality reduction in the screened population. Given the small number of cancers involved, comparison of interval-cancer statistics of mammographic screening programs with trials requires age-specific or age-adjusted data, and consideration of confidence intervals of both program and trial data.

Self-Esteem, Confidence, and Relationships in Brazilian Men with Erectile Dysfunction Receiving Sildenafil Citrate: A Randomized, Parallel-Group, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study in Brazil

Psychosocial manifestations of erectile dysfunction (ED) differ across cultures. Understanding the treatment response to ED medications within cultural groups can aid in resource allocation and in developing treatment strategies. Evaluate the effect of sildenafil treatment on self-esteem, confidence, and sexual relationship satisfaction in Brazilian men with ED. The Self-Esteem and Relationship (SEAR) questionnaire, a validated, 14-question instrument developed to specifically address self-esteem and relationship issues within the context of ED. Men aged 18 years or older with a clinical diagnosis of ED (<= 21 on the Sexual Health Inventory for Men) and in a stable relationship with a partner during the study were eligible. The primary end point was a change from baseline in the self-esteem subscale of the SEAR questionnaire. Thirteen Brazilian sites participated in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of sildenafil treatment for ED. Patients were randomized to receive either 50 mg of sildenafil (adjustable to 25 mg or 100 mg based on patient response) or matching placebo approximately 1 hour before anticipated sexual activity but not more than once a day. At the end of double-blind treatment, 63 and 66 patients in the placebo and sildenafil groups, respectively, from 13 Brazilian sites were assessed for efficacy. Brazilian patients receiving sildenafil had significantly greater improvements in their scores on the SEAR self-esteem subscale (42.9 [95% confidence interval 35.7-50.0]) compared with placebo (21.1 [95% confidence interval 13.7-28.6]; P < 0.0001). Effect sizes ranged from 0.91 to 1.25 for individual SEAR components. The psychosocial parameters in Brazilian men with ED assessed by the SEAR questionnaire showed significant improvements in self-esteem, confidence, and relationships after treatment with sildenafil. Glina S, Damiao R, Abdo C, Afif-Abdo J, Tseng L-J, and Stecher V. Self-esteem, confidence, and relationships in Brazilian men with erectile dysfunction receiving sildenafil citrate: A randomized, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in Brazil. J Sex Med 2009;6:268-275.

Housework, paid work and psychiatric symptoms

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the hypothesis that work burden, the simultaneous engagement in paid work and unpaid family housework, is a potential risk factor for psychiatric symptoms among women. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out with 460 women randomly selected from a poor area of the city of Salvador, Brazil. Women between 18 to 70 years old, who reported having a paid occupation or were involved in unpaid domestic activities for their families, were eligible. Work burden-related variables were defined as: a) double work shift, i.e., simultaneous engagement in a paid job plus unpaid housework; and b) daily working time. Psychiatric symptoms were collected through a validated questionnaire, the QMPA. RESULTS: Positive, statistically significant associations between high (>7 symptoms) QMPA scores and either double work shift (prevalence ratio -- PR=2.04, 95% confidence interval -- CI: 1.16, 2.29) or more than 10 hours of daily work time (PR=2.29, 95% CI: 1.96, 3.43) were found after adjustment for age, marital status and number of pre-school children. CONCLUSIONS: Major correlates of high QMPA scores are work burden variables. Being married or having pre-school children are also associated with high QMPA scores only when associated with work burden.

Recurrence After Operative Management of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION: Data on recurrence after operation for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) are limited. We sought to investigate rates and patterns of recurrence in patients after operative intervention for ICC. METHODS: We identified 301 patients who underwent operation for ICC between 1990 and 2011 from an international, multi-institutional database. Clinicopathologic data, recurrence patterns, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed. RESULTS: During the median follow up duration of 31 months (range 1-208), 53.5% developed a recurrence. Median RFS was 20.2 months and 5-year actuarial disease-free survival, 32.1%. The most common site for initial recurrence after operation of ICC was intrahepatic (n = 98; 60.9%), followed by simultaneous intra- and extrahepatic disease (n = 30; 18.6%); 33 (21.0%) patients developed extrahepatic recurrence only as the first site of recurrence. Macrovascular invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 2.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-3.21; P < .001), nodal metastasis (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.01-2.45; P = .04), unknown nodal status (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10-2.25; P = .04), and tumor size ≥5 cm (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.28-2.65; P < .001) were independently associated with increased risk of recurrence. Patients were assigned a clinical score from 0 to 3 according to the presence of these risk factors. The 5-year RFS for patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, and 3 was 61.8%, 36.2%, 19.5%, and 9.6%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Recurrence after operative intervention for ICC was common. Disease recurred both at intra- and extrahepatic sites with roughly the same frequency. Factors such as lymph node metastasis, tumor size, and vascular invasion predict highest risk of recurrence.