Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology

This paper examines the changes in the length of commercial property leases over the last decade and presents an analysis of the consequent investment and occupational pricing implications for commercial property investmentsIt is argued that the pricing implications of a short lease to an investor are contingent upon the expected costs of the letting termination to the investor, the probability that the letting will be terminated and the volatility of rental values.The paper examines the key factors influencing these variables and presents a framework for incorporating their effects into pricing models.Approaches to their valuation derived from option pricing are critically assessed. It is argued that such models also tend to neglect the price effects of specific risk factors such as tenant circumstances and the terms of break clause. Specific risk factors have a significant bearing on the probability of letting termination and on the level of the resultant financial losses. The merits of a simulation methododology are examined for rental and capital valuations of short leases and properties with break clauses.It is concluded that in addition to the rigour of its internal logic, the success of any methodology is predicated upon the accuracy of the inputs.The lack of reliable data on patterns in, and incidence of, lease termination and the lack of reliable time series of historic property performance limit the efficacy of financial models.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Numerical simulation of interdigitated back contact hetero-junction solar cells

The goal of this thesis is the application of an opto-electronic numerical simulation to heterojunction silicon solar cells featuring an all back contact architecture (Interdigitated Back Contact Hetero-Junction IBC-HJ). The studied structure exhibits both metal contacts, emitter and base, at the back surface of the cell with the objective to reduce the optical losses due to the shadowing by front contact of conventional photovoltaic devices. Overall, IBC-HJ are promising low-cost alternatives to monocrystalline wafer-based solar cells featuring front and back contact schemes, in fact, for IBC-HJ the high concentration doping diffusions are replaced by low-temperature deposition processes of thin amorphous silicon layers. Furthermore, another advantage of IBC solar cells with reference to conventional architectures is the possibility to enable a low-cost assembling of photovoltaic modules, being all contacts on the same side. A preliminary extensive literature survey has been helpful to highlight the specific critical aspects of IBC-HJ solar cells as well as the state-of-the-art of their modeling, processing and performance of practical devices. In order to perform the analysis of IBC-HJ devices, a two-dimensional (2-D) numerical simulation flow has been set up. A commercial device simulator based on finite-difference method to solve numerically the whole set of equations governing the electrical transport in semiconductor materials (Sentuarus Device by Synopsys) has been adopted. The first activity carried out during this work has been the definition of a 2-D geometry corresponding to the simulation domain and the specification of the electrical and optical properties of materials. In order to calculate the main figures of merit of the investigated solar cells, the spatially resolved photon absorption rate map has been calculated by means of an optical simulator. Optical simulations have been performed by using two different methods depending upon the geometrical features of the front interface of the solar cell: the transfer matrix method (TMM) and the raytracing (RT). The first method allows to model light prop-agation by plane waves within one-dimensional spatial domains under the assumption of devices exhibiting stacks of parallel layers with planar interfaces. In addition, TMM is suitable for the simulation of thin multi-layer anti reflection coating layers for the reduction of the amount of reflected light at the front interface. Raytracing is required for three-dimensional optical simulations of upright pyramidal textured surfaces which are widely adopted to significantly reduce the reflection at the front surface. The optical generation profiles are interpolated onto the electrical grid adopted by the device simulator which solves the carriers transport equations coupled with Poisson and continuity equations in a self-consistent way. The main figures of merit are calculated by means of a postprocessing of the output data from device simulation. After the validation of the simulation methodology by means of comparison of the simulation result with literature data, the ultimate efficiency of the IBC-HJ architecture has been calculated. By accounting for all optical losses, IBC-HJ solar cells result in a theoretical maximum efficiency above 23.5% (without texturing at front interface) higher than that of both standard homojunction crystalline silicon (Homogeneous Emitter HE) and front contact heterojuction (Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin layer HIT) solar cells. However it is clear that the criticalities of this structure are mainly due to the defects density and to the poor carriers transport mobility in the amorphous silicon layers. Lastly, the influence of the most critical geometrical and physical parameters on the main figures of merit have been investigated by applying the numerical simulation tool set-up during the first part of the present thesis. Simulations have highlighted that carrier mobility and defects level in amorphous silicon may lead to a potentially significant reduction of the conversion efficiency.

A Framework for the Automation of Discrete-Event Simulation Experiments

Simulation is an important resource for researchers in diverse fields. However, many researchers have found flaws in the methodology of published simulation studies and have described the state of the simulation community as being in a crisis of credibility. This work describes the project of the Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE), which addresses the issues that undermine credibility by automating the workflow in the execution of simulation studies. Automation reduces the number of opportunities for users to introduce error in the scientific process thereby improvingthe credibility of the final results. Automation also eases the job of simulation users and allows them to focus on the design of models and the analysis of results rather than on the complexities of the workflow.

Visualization Techniques For The Analysis Of Network Simulation Results

The Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE) streamlines the de- sign and execution of experiments with the ns-3 network simulator. SAFE ensures that best practices are followed throughout the workflow a network simulation study, guaranteeing that results are both credible and reproducible by third parties. Data analysis is a crucial part of this workflow, where mistakes are often made. Even when appearing in highly regarded venues, scientific graphics in numerous network simulation publications fail to include graphic titles, units, legends, and confidence intervals. After studying the literature in network simulation methodology and in- formation graphics visualization, I developed a visualization component for SAFE to help users avoid these errors in their scientific workflow. The functionality of this new component includes support for interactive visualization through a web-based interface and for the generation of high-quality, static plots that can be included in publications. The overarching goal of my contribution is to help users create graphics that follow best practices in visualization and thereby succeed in conveying the right information about simulation results.

A novel methodology for simulating contact-line behavior in capillary-driven flows

Despite the wide swath of applications where multiphase fluid contact lines exist, there is still no consensus on an accurate and general simulation methodology. Most prior numerical work has imposed one of the many dynamic contact-angle theories at solid walls. Such approaches are inherently limited by the theory accuracy. In fact, when inertial effects are important, the contact angle may be history dependent and, thus, any single mathematical function is inappropriate. Given these limitations, the present work has two primary goals: 1) create a numerical framework that allows the contact angle to evolve naturally with appropriate contact-line physics and 2) develop equations and numerical methods such that contact-line simulations may be performed on coarse computational meshes.

Fluid flows affected by contact lines are dominated by capillary stresses and require accurate curvature calculations. The level set method was chosen to track the fluid interfaces because it is easy to calculate interface curvature accurately. Unfortunately, the level set reinitialization suffers from an ill-posed mathematical problem at contact lines: a ``blind spot'' exists. Standard techniques to handle this deficiency are shown to introduce parasitic velocity currents that artificially deform freely floating (non-prescribed) contact angles. As an alternative, a new relaxation equation reinitialization is proposed to remove these spurious velocity currents and its concept is further explored with level-set extension velocities.

To capture contact-line physics, two classical boundary conditions, the Navier-slip velocity boundary condition and a fixed contact angle, are implemented in direct numerical simulations (DNS). DNS are found to converge only if the slip length is well resolved by the computational mesh. Unfortunately, since the slip length is often very small compared to fluid structures, these simulations are not computationally feasible for large systems. To address the second goal, a new methodology is proposed which relies on the volumetric-filtered Navier-Stokes equations. Two unclosed terms, an average curvature and a viscous shear VS, are proposed to represent the missing microscale physics on a coarse mesh.

All of these components are then combined into a single framework and tested for a water droplet impacting a partially-wetting substrate. Very good agreement is found for the evolution of the contact diameter in time between the experimental measurements and the numerical simulation. Such comparison would not be possible with prior methods, since the Reynolds number Re and capillary number Ca are large. Furthermore, the experimentally approximated slip length ratio is well outside of the range currently achievable by DNS. This framework is a promising first step towards simulating complex physics in capillary-dominated flows at a reasonable computational expense.

Incorporation of hybrid phase change materials in plastering mortars for increased energy efficiency in buildings

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Civil.

Vibrations in Rotating Machinery Arising from Minor Imperfections in Component Geometries

Vibrations in machines can cause noise, decrease the performance, or even damage the machine. Vibrations appear if there is a source of vibration that excites the system. In the worst case scenario, the excitation frequency coincides with the natural frequency of the machine causing resonance. Rotating machines are a machine type, where the excitation arises from the machine itself. The excitation originates from the mass imbalance in the rotating shaft, which always exists in machines that are manufactured using conventional methods. The excitation has a frequency that is dependent on the rotational speed of the machine. The rotating machines in industrial use are usually designed to rotate at a constant rotational speed, the case where the resonances can be easily avoided. However, the machines that have a varying operational speed are more problematic due to a wider range of frequencies that have to be avoided. Vibrations, which frequencies equal to rotational speed frequency of the machine are widely studied and considered in the typical machine design process. This study concentrates on vibrations, which arise from the excitations having frequencies that are multiples of the rotational speed frequency. These vibrations take place when there are two or more excitation components in a revolution of a rotating shaft. The dissertation introduces four studies where three kinds of machines are experiencing vibrations caused by different excitations. The first studied case is a directly driven permanent magnet generator used in a wind power plant. The electromagnetic properties of the generator cause harmonic excitations in the system. The dynamic responses of the generator are studied using the multibody dynamics formulation. In another study, the finite element method is used to study the vibrations of a magnetic gear due to excitations, which frequencies equal to the rotational speed frequency. The objective is to study the effects of manufacturing and assembling inaccuracies. Particularly, the eccentricity of the rotating part with respect to non-rotating part is studied since the eccentric operation causes a force component in the direction of the shortest air gap. The third machine type is a tube roll of a paper machine, which is studied while the tube roll is supported using two different structures. These cases are studied using different formulations. In the first case, the tube roll is supported by spherical roller bearings, which have some wavinesses on the rolling surfaces. Wavinesses cause excitations to the tube roll, which starts to resonate at the frequency that is a half of the first natural frequency. The frequency is in the range where the machine normally operates. The tube roll is modeled using the finite element method and the bearings are modeled as nonlinear forces between the tube roll and the pedestals. In the second case studied, the tube roll is supported by freely rotating discs, which wavinesses are also measured. The above described phenomenon is captured as well in this case, but the simulation methodology is based on the flexible multibody dynamics formulation. The simulation models that are used in both of the last two cases studied are verified by measuring the actual devices and comparing the simulated and measured results. The results show good agreement.

Timing verification in transaction modeling

Les systèmes Matériels/Logiciels deviennent indispensables dans tous les aspects de la vie quotidienne. La présence croissante de ces systèmes dans les différents produits et services incite à trouver des méthodes pour les développer efficacement. Mais une conception efficace de ces systèmes est limitée par plusieurs facteurs, certains d'entre eux sont: la complexité croissante des applications, une augmentation de la densité d'intégration, la nature hétérogène des produits et services, la diminution de temps d’accès au marché. Une modélisation transactionnelle (TLM) est considérée comme un paradigme prometteur permettant de gérer la complexité de conception et fournissant des moyens d’exploration et de validation d'alternatives de conception à des niveaux d’abstraction élevés. Cette recherche propose une méthodologie d’expression de temps dans TLM basée sur une analyse de contraintes temporelles. Nous proposons d'utiliser une combinaison de deux paradigmes de développement pour accélérer la conception: le TLM d'une part et une méthodologie d’expression de temps entre différentes transactions d’autre part. Cette synergie nous permet de combiner dans un seul environnement des méthodes de simulation performantes et des méthodes analytiques formelles. Nous avons proposé un nouvel algorithme de vérification temporelle basé sur la procédure de linéarisation des contraintes de type min/max et une technique d'optimisation afin d'améliorer l'efficacité de l'algorithme. Nous avons complété la description mathématique de tous les types de contraintes présentées dans la littérature. Nous avons développé des méthodes d'exploration et raffinement de système de communication qui nous a permis d'utiliser les algorithmes de vérification temporelle à différents niveaux TLM. Comme il existe plusieurs définitions du TLM, dans le cadre de notre recherche, nous avons défini une méthodologie de spécification et simulation pour des systèmes Matériel/Logiciel basée sur le paradigme de TLM. Dans cette méthodologie plusieurs concepts de modélisation peuvent être considérés séparément. Basée sur l'utilisation des technologies modernes de génie logiciel telles que XML, XSLT, XSD, la programmation orientée objet et plusieurs autres fournies par l’environnement .Net, la méthodologie proposée présente une approche qui rend possible une réutilisation des modèles intermédiaires afin de faire face à la contrainte de temps d’accès au marché. Elle fournit une approche générale dans la modélisation du système qui sépare les différents aspects de conception tels que des modèles de calculs utilisés pour décrire le système à des niveaux d’abstraction multiples. En conséquence, dans le modèle du système nous pouvons clairement identifier la fonctionnalité du système sans les détails reliés aux plateformes de développement et ceci mènera à améliorer la "portabilité" du modèle d'application.

Measuring departures from Hardy-Weinberg: a Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating the inbreeding coefficient

Many well-established statistical methods in genetics were developed in a climate of severe constraints on computational power. Recent advances in simulation methodology now bring modern, flexible statistical methods within the reach of scientists having access to a desktop workstation. We illustrate the potential advantages now available by considering the problem of assessing departures from Hardy-Weinberg (HW) equilibrium. Several hypothesis tests of HW have been established, as well as a variety of point estimation methods for the parameter which measures departures from HW under the inbreeding model. We propose a computational, Bayesian method for assessing departures from HW, which has a number of important advantages over existing approaches. The method incorporates the effects-of uncertainty about the nuisance parameters--the allele frequencies--as well as the boundary constraints on f (which are functions of the nuisance parameters). Results are naturally presented visually, exploiting the graphics capabilities of modern computer environments to allow straightforward interpretation. Perhaps most importantly, the method is founded on a flexible, likelihood-based modelling framework, which can incorporate the inbreeding model if appropriate, but also allows the assumptions of the model to he investigated and, if necessary, relaxed. Under appropriate conditions, information can be shared across loci and, possibly, across populations, leading to more precise estimation. The advantages of the method are illustrated by application both to simulated data and to data analysed by alternative methods in the recent literature.

Advances in the stochastic modelling of satellite-derived rainfall estimates using a sparse calibration dataset

As satellite technology develops, satellite rainfall estimates are likely to become ever more important in the world of food security. It is therefore vital to be able to identify the uncertainty of such estimates and for end users to be able to use this information in a meaningful way. This paper presents new developments in the methodology of simulating satellite rainfall ensembles from thermal infrared satellite data. Although the basic sequential simulation methodology has been developed in previous studies, it was not suitable for use in regions with more complex terrain and limited calibration data. Developments in this work include the creation of a multithreshold, multizone calibration procedure, plus investigations into the causes of an overestimation of low rainfall amounts and the best way to take into account clustered calibration data. A case study of the Ethiopian highlands has been used as an illustration.

Income inequality in Central America, Dominican Republic and Mexico: assessing the importance of individual and household characteristics

Includes bibliography

Desenvolvimento e teste de um programa computacional para simulação de plantas térmicas e de potência

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

Rentabilidade e risco da produção de milho safrinha geneticamente modificado na região de Guaíra-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA