Simulating a latent susceptible pool to examine the impact on cardiovascular mortality

The health effects of cold and hot temperatures are strongest in the frail and elderly. A large number of deaths in this "susceptible pool" after heat waves and cold snaps can cause mortality displacement, where an immediate increase in mortality is somewhat offset by a subsequent decrease in the following weeks. There may also be longer-term implications, as reductions in the pool caused by hot summers can reduce cold-related mortality in the following winter. A state-space model was used to simulate the numbers in the susceptible pool over time. We simulated the effects of harsh winters and heat waves, and varied the size of the susceptible pool. The larger the susceptible pool the smaller the mortality displacement. When 1% of the population were susceptible a harsh winter lead to an average of just 3 months of life lost per cold-related death, whereas a pool size of 10% meant that 24 months of life were lost per death. The impact of a cold spell on months of life lost was greater when the increased risk of death also applied to healthy people. The number of deaths caused by an August heat wave were reduced when there was a prior heat wave in June which reduced the susceptible pool. We were able to mimic some observed seasonal patterns in mortality using a simple state-space model. A better understanding of the size and dynamics of the susceptible pool will improve our understanding of the health effects of temperature.

Fridericia liangi sp nov (Enchytraeidae, Oligochaeta) from Changbaishan Mountain, China

We describe one new enchytraeid species, Fridericia liangi sp. nov., from Mt. Changbaishan, Jilin Province, northeastern China. It was collected from soils at the foot of Changbaishan Mountain and is distinguished from all known congeners by the following combination of characters: 1) no lateral chaetae, only ventral chaetae throughout, 2) a maximum of four chaetae in ventral preclitellar bundles, 3) one chaeta in ventral postclitellar bundles, 4) dorsal pores from VII on, 5) esophageal appendages unbranched, 6) coelomocytes without refractile vesicles, 7) clitellum girdle shaped, well developed, 8) no subneural glands, and 9) spermathecae simple.

The North Sea autumn spawning Herring (Clupea harengus L.) Spawning Component Abundance Index (SCAI)

The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.

Involutivity and Symple Waves in R^2

A strictly hyperbolic quasi-linear 2×2 system in two independent variables with C2 coefficients is considered. The existence of a simple wave solution in the sense that the solution is a 2-dimensional vector-valued function of the so called Riemann invariant is discussed. It is shown, through a purely geometrical approach, that there always exists simple wave solution for the general system when the coefficients are arbitrary C^2 functions depending on both, dependent and independent variables.

Bumps, breathers, and waves in a neural network with spike frequency adaptation

In this Letter we introduce a continuum model of neural tissue that include the effects of so-called spike frequency adaptation (SFA). The basic model is an integral equation for synaptic activity that depends upon the non-local network connectivity, synaptic response, and firing rate of a single neuron. A phenomenological model of SFA is examined whereby the firing rate is taken to be a simple state-dependent threshold function. As in the case without SFA classical Mexican-Hat connectivity is shown to allow for the existence of spatially localized states (bumps). Importantly an analysis of bump stability using recent Evans function techniques shows that bumps may undergo instabilities leading to the emergence of both breathers and traveling waves. Moreover, a similar analysis for traveling pulses leads to the conditions necessary to observe a stable traveling breather. Direct numerical simulations both confirm our theoretical predictions and illustrate the rich dynamic behavior of this model, including the appearance of self-replicating bumps.

Something rotten in the state of Minnesota: or the morality of backwoodsmen: 'A Simple Plan'

'A Simple Plan' is a deceptively complex and multilayered film, combining elements of Celtic mythology with the morality play and the windfall fantasy gone disastrously wrong. Despite its blending of realism and heavyhanded symbolism, and its abundant trans-textual gestures, 'A Simple Plan' is in many ways defiantly not a 90s movie: its leading characters are fashionably flawed, but they are neither sensitive, nor honourable, nor heroic; there are no startling special effects or intricate timeshifts; and it desperately gives the impression of depth, of being emphatically more than mere superficial excess. At a stretch it almost appears to be a throwback to the 1930s Production Code emphasis on the role of cinema in moral instruction; while good hardly triumphs over evil, venality is painfully and emphatically punished. But in other ways it is a quintessential late 90s film: an American/British/Japanese/German/French co-production, 'A Simple Plan' acts most palpably as a commentary on the moral, economic and social condition of the United States at the end of the American century.

A simple n-state model for water

A simple n-state configurational excitation model which takes into account the presence of weakly connected pentamer units in liquid water is proposed. The model has features of both the “continuum” and “mixture” models. Calculations based on this model satisfactorily account for the important, diagnostic thermodynamic properties of water such as the density maximum, fraction of monomers and so on.

Ground-state properties of an artificial molecule: a simple model calculation for the double quantum dot

The ground state of a double quantum-dot structure is studied by a simplified Anderson-type model. Numerical calculations reveal that the ground-state level of this artificial molecule increases with the increasing single particle level of the dot, and also increases with the decreasing transfer integrals. We show the staircase feature of the electron occupation and the properties of the ground-state eigenvector by varying the;single particle level of the dot.

[Ru(bpy)(3)](2+) nanocomposites containing heteropolyacids: Simple preparation and stable solid-state electrochemiluminescence detection application

In order to solidify the electrochemiluminescence (ECL) luminophor tris(2,2'-bipyridyl) ruthenium(II) ([Ru(bpy)(3)](2+)) onto the electrode surfaces robustly, the negative charged heteropolyacids (HPAs) moieties were utilized to attract and bond cations [Ru(bpy)(3)](2+) via an adsorption method. The compositions and microstructures of the hybrid complexes were characterized by elemental analysis (EDS), spectroscopic techniques (UV-vis, FTIR) and field-emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM). The electrochemical and ECL behaviors of the [Ru(bpy)(3)](2+)/[PW12O40](3-) hybrid complex contained in the solid film of the nanocomposites formed on the electrode surfaces were also studied.

Relaxing the Tropics to an ‘observed’ state: analysis using a simple baroclinic model

The technique of relaxation of the tropical atmosphere towards an analysis in a month-season forecast model has previously been successfully exploited in a number of contexts. Here it is shown that when tropical relaxation is used to investigate the possible origin of the observed anomalies in June–July 2007, a simple dynamical model is able to reproduce the observed component of the pattern of anomalies given by an ensemble of ECMWF forecast runs. Following this result, the simple model is used for a range of experiments on time-scales of relaxation, variables and regions relaxed based on a control model run with equatorial heating in a zonal flow. A theory based on scale analysis for the large-scale tropics is used to interpret the results. Typical relationships between scales are determined from the basic equations, and for a specified diabatic heating a chain of deductions for determining the dependent variables is derived. Different critical time-scales are found for tropical relaxation of different dependent variables to be effective. Vorticity has the longest critical time-scale, typically 1.2 days. For temperature and divergence, the time-scales are 10 hours and 3 hours, respectively. However not all the tropical fields, in particular the vertical motion, are reproduced correctly by the model unless divergence is heavily damped. To obtain the correct extra-tropical fields, it is crucial to have the correct rotational flow in the subtropics to initiate the Rossby wave propagation from there. It is sufficient to relax vorticity or temperature on a time-scale comparable or less than their critical time-scales to obtain this. However if the divergent advection of vorticity is important in the Rossby Wave Source then strong relaxation of divergence is required to accurately represent the tropical forcing of Rossby waves.

Dressed-state approach to a simple radiating atom

We consider a system consisting of an atom in the dipole approximation, coupled to the electromagnetic field. Using recently introduced renormalized coordinates and dressed states, we give a non-perturbative solution to the atom radiation process. From this formalism a non-exponential decay law naturally emerges. However, at least for low frequencies and weak coupling, there is only a very small, practically non-detectable, deviation from a purely exponential decay, in agreement with all previous results in the literature. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demonstration of a simple entangling optical gate and its use in bell-state analysis

We demonstrate a new architecture for an optical entangling gate that is significantly simpler than previous realizations, using partially polarizing beam splitters so that only a single optical mode-matching condition is required. We demonstrate operation of a controlled-z gate in both continuous-wave and pulsed regimes of operation, fully characterizing it in each case using quantum process tomography. We also demonstrate a fully resolving, nondeterministic optical Bell-state analyzer based on this controlled-z gate. This new architecture is ideally suited to guided optics implementations of optical gates.

A phenomenological model for the structure-composition relationship of the high Tc cuprates based on simple chemical principles

A simple phenomenological model for the relationship between structure and composition of the high Tc cuprates is presented. The model is based on two simple crystal chemistry principles: unit cell doping and charge balance within unit cells. These principles are inspired by key experimental observations of how the materials accommodate large deviations from stoichiometry. Consistent explanations for significant HTSC properties can be explained without any additional assumptions while retaining valuable insight for geometric interpretation. Combining these two chemical principles with a review of Crystal Field Theory (CFT) or Ligand Field Theory (LFT), it becomes clear that the two oxidation states in the conduction planes (typically d8 and d9) belong to the most strongly divergent d-levels as a function of deformation from regular octahedral coordination. This observation offers a link to a range of coupling effects relating vibrations and spin waves through application of Hund’s rules. An indication of this model’s capacity to predict physical properties for HTSC is provided and will be elaborated in subsequent publications. Simple criteria for the relationship between structure and composition in HTSC systems may guide chemical syntheses within new material systems.

A novel CDVM based high-voltage converter using low power solid-state switches and a tuned resonant circuit designed for pulsed power applications

A novel concept of producing high dc voltage for pulsed-power applications is proposed in this paper. The topology consists of an LC resonant circuit supplied through a tuned alternating waveform that is produced by an inverter. The control scheme is based on the detection of variations in the resonant frequency and adjustment of the switching signal patterns for the inverter to produce a square waveform with exactly the same frequencies. Therefore the capacitor voltage oscillates divergently with an increasing amplitude. A simple one-stage capacitor-diode voltage multiplier (CDVM) connected to the resonant capacitor then rectifies the alternating voltage and gives a dc level equal to twice the input voltage amplitude. The produced high voltage appears then in the form of high-voltage pulses across the load. A basic model is simulated by Simulink platform of MATLAB and the results are included in the paper.

Case study of Queensland state taxation

1. Like the Commonwealth Tax regime, state taxation legislation has now ballooned in size from the good old days when life and tax were relatively simple issues. 2. This case study of Queensland state taxation will examine the following taxes affecting churches and charities in this state: (a) Stamp Duty (b) Land Tax; and (c) Local Authority Rates 3. Each type of tax will be considered in turn. A brief legislative history of the statutory instruments governing these taxes will be given with a closer examination of the present schemes. Relevant judicial pronouncements will be considered and some open discussion of real life examples. 4. It is submitted that the regular donors to our worthy charities and the dedicated weekly churchgoers would have absolutely no idea: (a) that indirectly the value of their donations and weekly offerings are increasingly being eroded by the imposts of Government not only in terms of the amounts of those imposts but the enormous administrative burden of coping with the legislation; (b) of the complexity of the taxation legislation affecting their churches and charities; or (c) that their churches and charities are even paying taxes.