Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Structured professional judgement approach to risk assessment: generalisability across patient groups for the prediction of adverse outcomes in secure mental health care

This is a redacted version of the the final thesis. Copyright material has been removed to comply with UK Copyright Law.

Re-focusing risk assessment in forensic mental health nursing.

Editorial in the Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing, 2015, 22(7)

Short-term assessment of bt maize on non-target arthropods in Brazil

Embora não haja cultivos comerciais de milho geneticamente modificado no Brasil, o efeito de híbridos de milho Bt sobre inimigos naturais e artrópodos de solo deve ser avaliado antes da liberação aos produtores. Assim, ensaios foram conduzidos durante uma safra em duas localidades. Os híbridos de milho modificado geneticamente 7590-Bt11 e Avant-ICP4 foram comparados com seus respectivos isogênicos não transgênicos. Os artrópodes foram avaliados através de observação direta nas plantas e armadilhas de alçapão. de modo geral, não se observaram diferenças entre as populações de tesourinha (Dermaptera: Forficulidae), joaninhas (Coleptera: Coccinellidae), percevejo-pirata (Coleoptera: Anthocoridae), carabídeos (Carabidae), cicindelídeos (Cicindelidae) e aranhas (Araneae). Também não houve diferença no parasitismo de ovos de Helicoverpa zea (Boddie) por Trichogramma sp. (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae). Assim, milho geneticamente modificado expressando as proteínas inseticidas Cry1A(b) e VIP 3A não causa redução nas populações dos principais predadores e parasitóides.

Short-term effects of electronic and tobacco cigarettes on exhaled nitric oxide

The objective of this study was to compare the short-term respiratory effects due to the inhalation of electronic and conventional tobacco cigarette-generated mainstream aerosols through the measurement of the exhaled nitric oxide (eNO). To this purpose, twenty-five smokers were asked to smoke a conventional cigarette and to vape an electronic cigarette (with and without nicotine), and an electronic cigarette without liquid (control session). Electronic and tobacco cigarette mainstream aerosols were characterized in terms of total particle number concentrations and size distributions. On the basis of the measured total particle number concentrations and size distributions, the average particle doses deposited in alveolar and tracheobronchial regions of the lungs for a single 2-s puff were also estimated considering a subject performing resting (sitting) activity. Total particle number concentrations in the mainstream resulted equal to 3.5 ± 0.4 × 109, 5.1 ± 0.1 × 109, and 3.1 ± 0.6 × 109 part. cm− 3 for electronic cigarettes without nicotine, with nicotine, and for conventional cigarettes, respectively. The corresponding alveolar doses for a resting subject were estimated equal to 3.8 × 1010, 5.2 × 1010 and 2.3 × 1010 particles. The mean eNO variations measured after each smoking/vaping session were equal to 3.2 ppb, 2.7 ppb and 2.8 ppb for electronic cigarettes without nicotine, with nicotine, and for conventional cigarettes, respectively; whereas, negligible eNO changes were measured in the control session. Statistical tests performed on eNO data showed statistically significant differences between smoking/vaping sessions and the control session, thus confirming a similar effect on human airways whatever the cigarette smoked/vaped, the nicotine content, and the particle dose received.

A continuous-time MILP model for short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

In process industries, make-and-pack production is used to produce food and beverages, chemicals, and metal products, among others. This type of production process allows the fabrication of a wide range of products in relatively small amounts using the same equipment. In this article, we consider a real-world production process (cf. Honkomp et al. 2000. The curse of reality – why process scheduling optimization problems are diffcult in practice. Computers & Chemical Engineering, 24, 323–328.) comprising sequence-dependent changeover times, multipurpose storage units with limited capacities, quarantine times, batch splitting, partial equipment connectivity, and transfer times. The planning problem consists of computing a production schedule such that a given demand of packed products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are satisfied, and the production makespan is minimised. None of the models in the literature covers all of the technological constraints that occur in such make-and-pack production processes. To close this gap, we develop an efficient mixed-integer linear programming model that is based on a continuous time domain and general-precedence variables. We propose novel types of symmetry-breaking constraints and a preprocessing procedure to improve the model performance. In an experimental analysis, we show that small- and moderate-sized instances can be solved to optimality within short CPU times.

A hybrid method for large-scale short-term scheduling of make-and-pack production processes

Due to the ongoing trend towards increased product variety, fast-moving consumer goods such as food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals are typically manufactured through so-called make-and-pack processes. These processes consist of a make stage, a pack stage, and intermediate storage facilities that decouple these two stages. In operations scheduling, complex technological constraints must be considered, e.g., non-identical parallel processing units, sequence-dependent changeovers, batch splitting, no-wait restrictions, material transfer times, minimum storage times, and finite storage capacity. The short-term scheduling problem is to compute a production schedule such that a given demand for products is fulfilled, all technological constraints are met, and the production makespan is minimised. A production schedule typically comprises 500–1500 operations. Due to the problem size and complexity of the technological constraints, the performance of known mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulations and heuristic approaches is often insufficient. We present a hybrid method consisting of three phases. First, the set of operations is divided into several subsets. Second, these subsets are iteratively scheduled using a generic and flexible MILP formulation. Third, a novel critical path-based improvement procedure is applied to the resulting schedule. We develop several strategies for the integration of the MILP model into this heuristic framework. Using these strategies, high-quality feasible solutions to large-scale instances can be obtained within reasonable CPU times using standard optimisation software. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to a set of industrial problem instances and found that the method outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

Short-term effects of cycle and treadmill training on exercise tolerance in peripheral arterial disease

Background. To explore the efficacy of cycle training in the treatment of intermittent claudication, the present study compared performance and physiologic effects of cycle training with more conventional treadmill walking training in a group of patients with claudication. Method: Forty-two individuals with peripheral arterial disease and intermittent claudication (24 men, 18 women) were stratified by gender and the presence or absence of type 2 diabetes mellitus and then randomized to a treadmill (n = 13), cycle (n = 15), or control group (n = 14). Treadmill and cycle groups trained three times a week for 6 weeks, whereas the control group did not train during this period. Maximal and pain-free exercise times were measured on graded treadmill and cycle tests before and after training. Results. Treadmill training significantly improved maximal and pain-free treadmill walking times but did not improve cycle performance. Cycle training significantly improved maximal cycle time but did not improve treadmill performance. However, there was evidence of a stronger cross-transfer effect between the training modes for patients who reported a common limiting symptom during cycling and walking at baseline. There was also considerable variation in the training response to cycling, and a subgroup of responsive patients in the cycle group improved their walking performance by more than the average response observed in the treadmill group. Conclusion: These findings suggest that cycle exercise is not effective in improving walking performance in all claudication patients but might be an effective alternative to walking in those who exhibit similar limiting symptoms during both types of exercise.