Sequential screening

We present a model of price discrimination where a monopolistfaces a consumer who is privately informed about thedistribution of his valuation for an indivisible unit ofgood but has yet to learn privately the actual valuation.The monopolist sequentially screens the consumer with amenu of contracts:the consumer self-selects once by choosing a contract andthen self-selects again when he learns the actual valuation. A deterministic sequential mechanism is a menu of refundcontracts, each consisting of an advance payment and a refundamount in case of no consumption, but sequential mechanismsmay involve randomization.We characterize the optimal sequential mechanism when someconsumer types are more eager in the sense of first-orderstochastic dominance, and when some types face greatervaluation uncertainty in the sense of mean-preserving-spread.We show that it can be optimal to subsidize consumer typeswith smaller valuation uncertainty (through low refund, as inairplane ticket pricing) in order to reduce the rent to thosewith greater uncertainty. The size of distortion depends bothon the type distribution and on how informative the consumer'sinitial private knowledge is about his valuation, but noton how much he initially knows about the valuation per se.

Sequential cost-reimbursement rules

This paper studies cost-sharing rules under dynamic adverse selection. We present a typical principal-agent model with two periods, set up in Laffont and Tirole's (1986) canonical regulation environment. At first, when the contract is signed, the firm has prior uncertainty about its efficiency parameter. In the second period, the firm learns its efficiency and chooses the level of cost-reducing effort. The optimal mechanism sequentially screens the firm's types and achieves a higher level of welfare than its static counterpart. The contract is indirectly implemented by a sequence of transfers, consisting of a fixed advance payment based on the reported cost estimate, and an ex-post compensation linear in cost performance.

Land of the rising soy an internationalization plan for nutre to the Japanese Soy milk market

The present work project studies the next step in the internationalization process of Shoyce, the soy milk products brand of Nutre. In order to select the best target market in the Asia-Pacific for Nutre to export, a sequential screening process was developed using two complementary approaches: preliminary country screening and country ranking, followed by an in-depth analysis of the country ranking first. The analysis revealed Japan as the most attractive country for Shoyce’s international expansion. Potential entry modes in the Japanese soy milk market were then evaluated, whereby direct exporting via a local distributor was found to be the most appropriate.

Optimal contracting with private information on cost expectation and variability

We study the screening problem that arises in a framework where, initially, the agent is privately informed about both the expected production cost and the cost variability and, at a later stage, he learns privately the cost realization. The speci c set of relevant incentive constraints, and so the characteristics of the optimal mechanism, depend nely upon the curvature of the principal s marginal surplus function as well as the relative importance of the two initial information problems. Pooling of production levels is optimally induced with respect to the cost variability when the principal's knowledge imperfection about the latter is sufficiently less important than that about the expected cost.

Temporal and spatial distribution of Leishmania mexicana infections in a population of Neotoma micropus

A 19-month mark-release-recapture study of Neotoma micropus with sequential screening for Leishmania mexicana was conducted in Bexar County, Texas, USA. The overall prevalence rate was 14.7% and the seasonal prevalence rates ranged from 3.8 to 26.7%. Nine incident cases were detected, giving an incidence rate of 15.5/100 rats/year. Follow-up of 101 individuals captured two or more times ranged from 14 to 462 days. Persistence of L. mexicana infections averaged 190 days and ranged from 104 to 379 days. Data on dispersal, density, dispersion, and weight are presented, and the role of N. micropus as a reservoir host for L. mexicana is discussed.

Second-trimester soft markers: relation to first-trimester nuchal translucency in unaffected pregnancies

Objective Genetic sonography following first-trimester combined screening appears to increase substantially detection rates for Down syndrome but it relies on the unproved assumption of independence between these tests. In this study we aimed to investigate the relationship between first-trimester nuchal translucency (NT) and a series of second-trimester soft markers and structural defects in unaffected pregnancies. Methods NT measurement in the first trimester was followed by second-trimester scan (18 to 23 + 6 weeks) including examination for three categorical markers (intracardiac echogenic foci, hyperechogenic bowel and structural defects) and measurement of nasal bone length, nuchal-fold thickness, femur length, humerus length, renal pelvis diameter and prenasal thickness. All continuous variables were expressed in multiples of the median (MoM) for gestation and correlation coefficients between log-transformed NT and second-trimester variables were calculated. In addition, frequencies of soft markers and structural defects in cases with increased NT were compared to those with normal NT, using MoM cut-offs. Results In a dataset of 1970 cases, NT was significantly correlated (P < 0.05) with all second-trimester continuous variables, the correlation being strongest for nuchal-fold thickness (r = 0.10). There was a higher frequency of cases with second-trimester nuchal-fold thickness above the 97.5th centile (10.7 vs. 2.2%) and hyperechogenic bowel (2.4 vs. 0.1%) in cases with increased NT. Conclusions Straightforward reassessment of risk using likelihood ratios derived from the second-trimester genetic sonogram might lead to inaccurate estimates. Multivariate models using continuous second-trimester variables might be preferable in sequential screening strategies. Copyright. 2012 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

UPLC-TOF-MS for plant metabolomics: a sequential approach for wound marker analysis in Arabidopsis thaliana.

The model plant Arabidopsis thaliana was studied for the search of new metabolites involved in wound signalling. Diverse LC approaches were considered in terms of efficiency and analysis time and a 7-min gradient on a UPLC-TOF-MS system with a short column was chosen for metabolite fingerprinting. This screening step was designed to allow the comparison of a high number of samples over a wide range of time points after stress induction in positive and negative ionisation modes. Thanks to data treatment, clear discrimination was obtained, providing lists of potential stress-induced ions. In a second step, the fingerprinting conditions were transferred to longer column, providing a higher peak capacity able to demonstrate the presence of isomers among the highlighted compounds.

Auditory brainstem response in term and preterm infants with neonatal complications: the importance of the sequential evaluation

Introduction Literature data are not conclusive as to the influence of neonatal complications in the maturational process of the auditory system observed by auditory brainstem response (ABR) in infants at term and preterm. Objectives Check the real influence of the neonatal complications in infants by the sequential auditory evaluation. Methods Historical cohort study in a tertiary referral center. A total of 114 neonates met inclusion criteria: treatment at the Universal Neonatal Hearing Screening Program of the local hospital; at least one risk indicator for hearing loss; presence in both evaluations (the first one after hospital discharge from the neonatal unit and the second one at 6 months old); all latencies in ABR and transient otoacoustic emissions present in both ears. Results The complications that most influenced the ABR findings were Apgar scores less than 6 at 5 minutes, gestational age, intensive care unit stay, peri-intraventricular hemorrhage, and mechanical ventilation. Conclusion Sequential auditory evaluation is necessary in premature and term newborns with risk indicators for hearing loss to correctly identify injuries in the auditory pathway.

[The model project "newborn auditory screening" in the Upper Palatinate: high process and result quality of an interdisciplinary concept]

BACKGROUND: In May 2003, a newborn auditory screening program was initiated in the Upper Palatinate. METHODS: Sequential OAE- and BERA-screening was conducted in all hospitals with obstetric facilities. The Screening Center at the Public Health Authority was responsible for the coordination of the screening process, completeness of participation, the follow-up of all subjects with a positive screening test and the quality of instrumental screening. RESULTS: A total of 96% of 17,469 newborns were screened. The referral rate at discharge was 1.6% (0.4% for bilateral positive findings). For 97% of the positive screening results, a definite diagnosis to confirm or exclude hearing loss was achieved; for 43% only after intervention by the Screening Center. Fifteen children with profound bilateral hearing impairment were identified of whom eight were only detected by the intervention of the Screening Center. CONCLUSION: The effective structures established in the Upper Palatinate provide a standard for the quality of neonatal auditory screening achievable in Germany.

The performance of human papillomavirus high-risk DNA testing in the screening and diagnostic settings.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the performance of the human papillomavirus high-risk DNA test in patients 30 years and older. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Screening (n=835) and diagnosis (n=518) groups were defined based on prior Papanicolaou smear results as part of a clinical trial for cervical cancer detection. We compared the Hybrid Capture II (HCII) test result with the worst histologic report. We used cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 or worse as the reference of disease. We calculated sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and areas under the ROC curves for the HCII test. We also considered alternative strategies, including Papanicolaou smear, a combination of Papanicolaou smear and the HCII test, a sequence of Papanicolaou smear followed by the HCII test, and a sequence of the HCII test followed by Papanicolaou smear. RESULTS: For the screening group, the sensitivity was 0.69 and the specificity was 0.93; the area under the ROC curve was 0.81. The LR+ and LR- were 10.24 and 0.34, respectively. For the diagnosis group, the sensitivity was 0.88 and the specificity was 0.78; the area under the ROC curve was 0.83. The LR+ and LR- were 4.06 and 0.14, respectively. Sequential testing showed little or no improvement over the combination testing. CONCLUSIONS: The HCII test in the screening group had a greater LR+ for the detection of CIN 2/3 or worse. HCII testing may be an additional screening tool for cervical cancer in women 30 years and older.

Australia: new screening method for cold tolerance during the reproducitve stage in rice

Low temperature, particularly during the reproductive stage of the development of rice, limits productivity in the Riverina region of New South Wales (NSW). This study primarily examined genotypic differences in cold damage that are associated with low temperature during reproductive development. Results from experiments in temperature-controlled rooms and the cold water facility were combined with four years of field experiments, which used natural exposure to low temperature to examine the response of over 50 cultivars from diverse origins. Plants were exposed to day/night air temperatures of 27°/13°C in temperature-controlled rooms and to a constant temperature of 19°C in the cold water facility. Low temperature treatments were imposed from panicle initiation (PI) to 50% heading. In field experiments several techniques were used to increase the likelihood of inducing cold damage such as sequential sowing dates (five to eight sowing dates each year), shallow water depths (5cm) and high nitrogen rates (e.g. 300kgN ha-1). Several cultivars were identified that were more cold tolerant than Australia’s commercial cultivars.

An efficient screening method for computer experiments

Computer simulators of real-world processes are often computationally expensive and require many inputs. The problem of the computational expense can be handled using emulation technology; however, highly multidimensional input spaces may require more simulator runs to train and validate the emulator. We aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem by screening the simulators inputs for nonlinear effects on the output rather than distinguishing between negligible and active effects. Our proposed method is built upon the elementary effects (EE) method for screening and uses a threshold value to separate the inputs with linear and nonlinear effects. The technique is simple to implement and acts in a sequential way to keep the number of simulator runs down to a minimum, while identifying the inputs that have nonlinear effects. The algorithm is applied on a set of simulated examples and a rabies disease simulator where we observe run savings ranging between 28% and 63% compared with the batch EE method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Newborn Hearing Screening And Early Diagnostic In The Nicu.

The aim was to describe the outcome of neonatal hearing screening (NHS) and audiological diagnosis in neonates in the NICU. The sample was divided into Group I: neonates who underwent NHS in one step and Group II: neonates who underwent a test and retest NHS. NHS procedure was automated auditory brainstem response. NHS was performed in 82.1% of surviving neonates. For GI, referral rate was 18.6% and false-positive was 62.2% (normal hearing in the diagnostic stage). In GII, with retest, referral rate dropped to 4.1% and false-positive to 12.5%. Sensorineural hearing loss was found in 13.2% of infants and conductive in 26.4% of cases. There was one case of auditory neuropathy spectrum (1.9%). Dropout rate in whole process was 21.7% for GI and 24.03% for GII. We concluded that it was not possible to perform universal NHS in the studied sample or, in many cases, to apply it within the first month of life. Retest reduced failure and false-positive rate and did not increase evasion, indicating that it is a recommendable step in NHS programs in the NICU. The incidence of hearing loss was 2.9%, considering sensorineural hearing loss (0.91%), conductive (1.83%) and auditory neuropathy spectrum (0.19%).

[why Does The Prevalence Of Cytopathological Results Of Cervical Cancer Screening Can Vary Significantly Between Two Regions Of Brazil?].

To analyze the prevalence of cervical cytopathological results for the screening of cervical cancer with regard to women's age and time since the last examination in Maceió and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, among those assisted by the Brazilian Unified Health System. Cervical cytopathological results available in the Information System of Cervical Cancer Screening for the year 2011 were analyzed, corresponding to 206,550 for Rio de Janeiro and 45,243 for Maceió. In Rio de Janeiro, examination at one and two year intervals predominated, while in Maceió examination at one and three year intervals had a higher predominance. Women who underwent cervical smear screening in Maceió were older than those in Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence of invasive squamous cell carcinoma was similar for the two cities, but all the other results presented a higher prevalence in Rio de Janeiro: ASCUS (PR=5.32; 95%CI 4.66-6.07); ASCH (PR=4.27; 95%CI 3.15-5.78); atypical glandular cells (PR=10.02; 95%CI 5.66-17.76); low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=6.10; 95%CI 5.27-7.07); high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (PR=8.90; 95%CI 6.50-12.18) and adenocarcinoma (PR=3.00; 95%CI 1.21-7.44). The rate of unsatisfactory cervical samples was two times higher in Maceió and that of rejected samples for analysis was five times higher in Maceió when compared to Rio de Janeiro. The prevalence rates of altered cervical cytopathological results was significantly higher in Rio de Janeiro than in Maceió. There is no objective information that may justify this difference. One hypothesis is that there may be a difference in the diagnostic performance of the cervical cancer screening, which could be related to the quality of the Pap smear. Thus, these findings suggest that it would be necessary to perform this evaluation at national level, with emphasis on the performance of cervical cancer screening in order to improve the effectiveness of cervical cancer control.