Sequential choice from several populations.

We consider the problem of sampling sequentially from two or more populations in such a way as to maximize the expected sum of outcomes in the long run.

A dynamic sequential route choice model for micro-simulation

Dans les études sur le transport, les modèles de choix de route décrivent la sélection par un utilisateur d’un chemin, depuis son origine jusqu’à sa destination. Plus précisément, il s’agit de trouver dans un réseau composé d’arcs et de sommets la suite d’arcs reliant deux sommets, suivant des critères donnés. Nous considérons dans le présent travail l’application de la programmation dynamique pour représenter le processus de choix, en considérant le choix d’un chemin comme une séquence de choix d’arcs. De plus, nous mettons en œuvre les techniques d’approximation en programmation dynamique afin de représenter la connaissance imparfaite de l’état réseau, en particulier pour les arcs éloignés du point actuel. Plus précisément, à chaque fois qu’un utilisateur atteint une intersection, il considère l’utilité d’un certain nombre d’arcs futurs, puis une estimation est faite pour le restant du chemin jusqu’à la destination. Le modèle de choix de route est implanté dans le cadre d’un modèle de simulation de trafic par événements discrets. Le modèle ainsi construit est testé sur un modèle de réseau routier réel afin d’étudier sa performance.

Escolhas sequenciais e simultâneas em humanos: processamento independente ou por competição?

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

Vertical Product Differentiation, Entry-Deterrence Strategies, and Entry Qualities, September 2005

We analyze the entry of a new product into a vertically differentiated market in which an entrant and an incumbent compete in prices. Here the entry-deterrence strategies of the incumbent firm rely on “limit qualities.” With a sequential choice of quality, a quality-dependent marginal production cost, and a fixed entry cost, we relate the entry-quality decision and the entry-deterrence strategies to the level of entry cost and the degree of consumer heterogeneity. Quality-dependent marginal production costs in the model entail the possibility of inferior-quality entry as well as an incumbent’s aggressive entry-deterrence strategies of increasing its quality level toward potential entry. Welfare evaluation confirms that social welfare is not necessarily improved when entry is encouraged rather than deterred.

Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy

We study the effects of nominal debt on the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy. When the stock of debt is nominal, the incentive to generate unanticipated inflation increases the cost of the outstanding debt even if no unanticipated inflation episodes occur in equilibrium. Without full commitment, the optimal sequential policy is to deplete the outstanding stock of debt progressively until these extra costs disappear. Nominal debt is therefore a burden on monetary policy, not only because it must be serviced, but also because it creates a time inconsistency problem that distorts interest rates. The introduction of alternative forms of taxation may lessen this burden, if there is enough commtiment to fiscal policy. If there is full commitment to an optimal fiscal policy, then the resulting monetary policy is the Friedman rule of zero nominal interest rates.

Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Choice by sequential procedures

We propose a rule of decision-making, the sequential procedure guided byroutes, and show that three influential boundedly rational choice models can be equivalentlyunderstood as special cases of this rule. In addition, the sequential procedure guidedby routes is instrumental in showing that the three models are intimately related. We showthat choice with a status-quo bias is a refinement of rationalizability by game trees, which, inturn, is also a refinement of sequential rationalizability. Thus, we provide a sharp taxonomyof these choice models, and show that they all can be understood as choice by sequentialprocedures.

Welfare criteria from choice: the sequential solution

We study the problem of deriving a complete welfare ordering from a choice function. Under the sequential solution, the best alternative is the alternative chosen from the universal set; the second best is the one chosen when the best alternative is removed; and so on. We show that this is the only completion of Bernheim and Rangel's (2009) welfare relation that satisfies two natural axioms: neutrality, which ensures that the names of the alternatives are welfare-irrelevant; and persistence, which stipulates that every choice function between two welfare-identical choice functions must exhibit the same welfare ordering.

Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences

This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A characterization of sequential rationalizability

A choice function is sequentially rationalizable if there is an ordered collection of asymmetric binary relations that identifies the selected alternative in every choice problem. We propose a property, F-consistency, and show that it characterizes the notion of sequential rationalizability. F-consistency is a testable property that highlights the behavioral aspects implicit in sequentially rationalizable choice. Further, our characterization result provides a novel tool with which to study how other behavioral concepts are related to sequential rationalizability, and establish a priori unexpected implications. In particular, we show that the concept of rationalizability by game trees, which, in principle, had little to do with sequential rationalizability, is a refinement of the latter. Every choice function that is rationalizable by a game tree is also sequentially rationalizable. Finally, we show that some prominent voting mechanisms are also sequentially rationalizable.

Predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anesthesia

Abstract Background: To evaluate the predictability of refraction following immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery (ISBCS) performed under general anaesthesia. Methods: This is a retrospective review of all ISBCS performed at Kantonsspital Winterthur, Switzerland, between April 2000 and September 2013. The case notes of 250 patients were reviewed. Patients having full refraction reported (110 patients/220 eyes) were included. 210 (95 %) eyes had a straight forward phacoemulsification with posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation, seven eyes had a planned extracapsular cataract extraction (ECCE); three eyes had an intracapsular cataract extraction. Results: Both eyes of 110 patients (64 women, 46 men) with a mean age of 79.0 years, standard deviation (SD) ±11.4 (range 26 to 97 years) were included. Median preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 0.5 LogMAR in the first eye, the interquartile range (IQR) was [0.4, 1.2]; 0.7 LogMAR in the second eye with IQR [0.4, 1.8]. At one month, the median BCVA was 0.2 LogMAR, IQR [0.1, 0.3] in the first eye, median BCVA was 0.1 LogMAR and IQR [0.0, 0.5] in the second eye. There were 3 eyes (3 %) that lost 3 lines or more in BCVA at one month (control vs. pre-operatively). In all three cases, poor visual acuity had been recorded pre-operatively (>1 LogMAR). Achieved refraction was within ±1.0 D of the target in 83 % of eyes. There were only 5 % (n = 6) of cases where if delayed sequential bilateral extraction had been performed could potentially intraocular lens (IOL) choice have been adjusted, in four of these cases, target refraction was within ±1.0 D in the second eye. Conclusions: ISBCS performed under general anaesthesia achieves target refraction in 83 % of eyes after consideration of complications, ocular co-morbidities and systemic restrictions. In the majority of cases where IOL power calculation could be considered, the achieved refraction of the second surgical eye was within ±1.0 D of intended refraction. This undermines the utility of IOL power adjustments in the second surgical eye. Keywords: Cataract, Cataract surgery, Immediate sequential bilateral cataract surgery

Relative performance of the two hands in simple and choice reaction time tasks

There is evidence that the left hemisphere is more competent for motor control than the right hemisphere. This study investigated whether this hemispheric asymmetry is expressed in the latency/duration of sequential responses performed by the left and/or right hands. Thirty-two right-handed young adults (16 males, 16 females; 18-25 years old) were tested in a simple or choice reaction time task. They responded to a left and/or right visual target by moving their left and/or right middle fingers between two keys on each side of the midline. Right hand reaction time did not differ from left hand reaction time. Submovement times were longer for the right hand than the left hand when the response was bilateral. Pause times were shorter for the right hand than the left hand, both when the responses were unilateral or bilateral. Reaction time results indicate that the putatively more efficient response preparation by the left hemisphere motor mechanisms is not expressed behaviorally. Submovement time and pause time results indicate that the putatively more efficient response execution by the left hemisphere motor mechanisms is expressed behaviorally. In the case of the submovements, the less efficient motor control of the left hand would be compensated by a more intense attention to this hand.