Otra Patagonia Austral es posible : proyectos de territorio entre la emergencia y la urgencia

Nuevo paradigma para algunos, o simple eslogan político-mediático para otros, el concepto de desarrollo sustentable levanta reacciones contradictorias en el mundo científico. Existen notables diferencias en el acercamiento al desarrollo sustentable entre los representantes de las ciencias naturales y los de las ciencias humanas. El carácter nómada del concepto (Stengers, 1987) de desarrollo sustentable es percibido por ciertos investigadores en geografía como una verdadera tara genética, cuando otros piensan por el contrario que puede servir de palanca para renovar el acercamiento geográfico a los grandes problemas contemporáneos. ¿Para la investigación en geografía, qué postura es conveniente adoptar? ¿El desarrollo sustentable, como concepto nómada, puede convertirse en una herramienta eficaz e innovadora? ¿O bien su incertidumbre semántica nos conduce de manera inexorable hacia un vagabundeo de las ideas? El objetivo central de esta reflexión es intentar situar el concepto de desarrollo sustentable en la órbita del pensamiento geográfico, en una óptica comparativa con disciplinas vecinas y cuestionando a su vez su interés para la investigación en nuestro campo disciplinario. Para ello, es necesario en primer lugar acercarse sin tabúes a los problemas planteados por este concepto: ¿Debe considerarse el nomadismo conceptual del desarrollo sustentable como una especie de pecado original que lo convertiría en un instrumento inoperante para la geografía? En segundo lugar, desmitificando la novedad aparente del concepto, conviene analizar cuáles son sus filiaciones con la geografía y otras disciplinas. Y finalmente, plantear casos concretos de utilización del concepto en la investigación geográfica (ciudad sustentable; bosques sustentables), subrayando sus aportes, pero también poniendo a la luz sus límites.

Comparing global land cover datasets through the Eagle matrix land cover components for continental Portugal

Global land cover maps play an important role in the understanding of the Earth's ecosystem dynamic. Several global land cover maps have been produced recently namely, Global Land Cover Share (GLC-Share) and GlobeLand30. These datasets are very useful sources of land cover information and potential users and producers are many times interested in comparing these datasets. However these global land cover maps are produced based on different techniques and using different classification schemes making their interoperability in a standardized way a challenge. The Environmental Information and Observation Network (EIONET) Action Group on Land Monitoring in Europe (EAGLE) concept was developed in order to translate the differences in the classification schemes into a standardized format which allows a comparison between class definitions. This is done by elaborating an EAGLE matrix for each classification scheme, where a bar code is assigned to each class definition that compose a certain land cover class. Ahlqvist (2005) developed an overlap metric to cope with semantic uncertainty of geographical concepts, providing this way a measure of how geographical concepts are more related to each other. In this paper, the comparison of global land cover datasets is done by translating each land cover legend into the EAGLE bar coding for the Land Cover Components of the EAGLE matrix. The bar coding values assigned to each class definition are transformed in a fuzzy function that is used to compute the overlap metric proposed by Ahlqvist (2005) and overlap matrices between land cover legends are elaborated. The overlap matrices allow the semantic comparison between the classification schemes of each global land cover map. The proposed methodology is tested on a case study where the overlap metric proposed by Ahlqvist (2005) is computed in the comparison of two global land cover maps for Continental Portugal. The study resulted with the overlap spatial distribution among the two global land cover maps, Globeland30 and GLC-Share. These results shows that Globeland30 product overlap with a degree of 77% with GLC-Share product in Continental Portugal.

Describing and communicating uncertainty within the semantic web

The Semantic Web relies on carefully structured, well defined, data to allow machines to communicate and understand one another. In many domains (e.g. geospatial) the data being described contains some uncertainty, often due to incomplete knowledge; meaningful processing of this data requires these uncertainties to be carefully analysed and integrated into the process chain. Currently, within the SemanticWeb there is no standard mechanism for interoperable description and exchange of uncertain information, which renders the automated processing of such information implausible, particularly where error must be considered and captured as it propagates through a processing sequence. In particular we adopt a Bayesian perspective and focus on the case where the inputs / outputs are naturally treated as random variables. This paper discusses a solution to the problem in the form of the Uncertainty Markup Language (UncertML). UncertML is a conceptual model, realised as an XML schema, that allows uncertainty to be quantified in a variety of ways i.e. realisations, statistics and probability distributions. UncertML is based upon a soft-typed XML schema design that provides a generic framework from which any statistic or distribution may be created. Making extensive use of Geography Markup Language (GML) dictionaries, UncertML provides a collection of definitions for common uncertainty types. Containing both written descriptions and mathematical functions, encoded as MathML, the definitions within these dictionaries provide a robust mechanism for defining any statistic or distribution and can be easily extended. Universal Resource Identifiers (URIs) are used to introduce semantics to the soft-typed elements by linking to these dictionary definitions. The INTAMAP (INTeroperability and Automated MAPping) project provides a use case for UncertML. This paper demonstrates how observation errors can be quantified using UncertML and wrapped within an Observations & Measurements (O&M) Observation. The interpolation service uses the information within these observations to influence the prediction outcome. The output uncertainties may be encoded in a variety of UncertML types, e.g. a series of marginal Gaussian distributions, a set of statistics, such as the first three marginal moments, or a set of realisations from a Monte Carlo treatment. Quantifying and propagating uncertainty in this way allows such interpolation results to be consumed by other services. This could form part of a risk management chain or a decision support system, and ultimately paves the way for complex data processing chains in the Semantic Web.

Modulation of pain ratings by expectation and uncertainty: Behavioral characteristics and anticipatory neural correlates.

Expectations about the magnitude of impending pain exert a substantial effect on subsequent perception. However, the neural mechanisms that underlie the predictive processes that modulate pain are poorly understood. In a combined behavioral and high-density electrophysiological study we measured anticipatory neural responses to heat stimuli to determine how predictions of pain intensity, and certainty about those predictions, modulate brain activity and subjective pain ratings. Prior to receiving randomized laser heat stimuli at different intensities (low, medium or high) subjects (n=15) viewed cues that either accurately informed them of forthcoming intensity (certain expectation) or not (uncertain expectation). Pain ratings were biased towards prior expectations of either high or low intensity. Anticipatory neural responses increased with expectations of painful vs. non-painful heat intensity, suggesting the presence of neural responses that represent predicted heat stimulus intensity. These anticipatory responses also correlated with the amplitude of the Laser-Evoked Potential (LEP) response to painful stimuli when the intensity was predictable. Source analysis (LORETA) revealed that uncertainty about expected heat intensity involves an anticipatory cortical network commonly associated with attention (left dorsolateral prefrontal, posterior cingulate and bilateral inferior parietal cortices). Relative certainty, however, involves cortical areas previously associated with semantic and prospective memory (left inferior frontal and inferior temporal cortex, and right anterior prefrontal cortex). This suggests that biasing of pain reports and LEPs by expectation involves temporally precise activity in specific cortical networks.

Multi-agent Architecture for Heterogeneous Reasoning under Uncertainty Combining MSBN and Ontologies in Distributed Network Diagnosis

This article proposes a MAS architecture for network diagnosis under uncertainty. Network diagnosis is divided into two inference processes: hypothesis generation and hypothesis confirmation. The first process is distributed among several agents based on a MSBN, while the second one is carried out by agents using semantic reasoning. A diagnosis ontology has been defined in order to combine both inference processes. To drive the deliberation process, dynamic data about the influence of observations are taken during diagnosis process. In order to achieve quick and reliable diagnoses, this influence is used to choose the best action to perform. This approach has been evaluated in a P2P video streaming scenario. Computational and time improvements are highlight as conclusions.

A Recommendation Framework Based on the Analytic Network Process and its Application in the Semantic Technology Domain

When users face a certain problem needing a product, service, or action to solve it, selecting the best alternative among them can be a dicult task due to the uncertainty of their quality. This is especially the case in the domains where users do not have an expertise, like for example in Software Engineering. Multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are methods that help making better decisions when facing the complex problem of selecting the best solution among a group of alternatives that can be compared according to different conflicting criteria. In MCDM problems, alternatives represent concrete products, services or actions that will help in achieving a goal, while criteria represent the characteristics of these alternatives that are important for making a decision.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Two main challenges in service description : Web service tunnel vision and semantic myopia

Through media such as newspapers, letterbox flyers, corporate brochures and television we are regularly confronted with descriptions for conventional (bricks 'n' mortar style) services. These representations vary in the terminology utilised, the depth of the description, the aspects of the service that are characterised and their applicability to candidate service requestors. Existing service catalogues (such as the Yellow Pages) provide little relief for service requestors from the burdensome task of discovering, comparing and substituting services. Add to this environment the rapidly evolving area of web services with its associated surfeit of standards, and the result is a considerably fragmented approach to the description of services. It leaves the reality of the Semantic Web somewhat clouded. --------- Let's consider service description briefly, before discussing our concerns with existing approaches to description. The act of describing is performed prior to advertising. This simple fact provides an interesting paradox as services cannot be described exactly before advertisement. This doesn't mean they can't be described comprehensively. By "exactly", we are referring to the fact that context provided by a service requestor (and their service needs) will alter the description of the service that is presented to the discoverer. For example, a service provider who operates a cinema wants to describe the price of their service. Let's say the advertised price is $15. They also want to state that a pensioner discount and a student discount is available which provides a 50% discount. A customer (i.e. service requestor) uses the cinema web site to purchase tickets online. They find the movie of their choice at a time that suits. However, its not until some context is provided by the requestor that the exact price is determined. The requestor might state that they are a pensioner. The same is applicable for a service requestor who purchases multiple tickets perhaps on behalf of other people. The disconnect between when the service is described and when a requestor provides context introduces challenges to the description process. A service provider would be ill-advised to offer independent descriptions that represent all the permutations possible for a single service. The descriptive effort would be prohibitive.

Effective web service discovery using a combination of a semantic model and a data mining technique

With the advent of Service Oriented Architecture, Web Services have gained tremendous popularity. Due to the availability of a large number of Web services, finding an appropriate Web service according to the requirement of the user is a challenge. This warrants the need to establish an effective and reliable process of Web service discovery. A considerable body of research has emerged to develop methods to improve the accuracy of Web service discovery to match the best service. The process of Web service discovery results in suggesting many individual services that partially fulfil the user’s interest. By considering the semantic relationships of words used in describing the services as well as the use of input and output parameters can lead to accurate Web service discovery. Appropriate linking of individual matched services should fully satisfy the requirements which the user is looking for. This research proposes to integrate a semantic model and a data mining technique to enhance the accuracy of Web service discovery. A novel three-phase Web service discovery methodology has been proposed. The first phase performs match-making to find semantically similar Web services for a user query. In order to perform semantic analysis on the content present in the Web service description language document, the support-based latent semantic kernel is constructed using an innovative concept of binning and merging on the large quantity of text documents covering diverse areas of domain of knowledge. The use of a generic latent semantic kernel constructed with a large number of terms helps to find the hidden meaning of the query terms which otherwise could not be found. Sometimes a single Web service is unable to fully satisfy the requirement of the user. In such cases, a composition of multiple inter-related Web services is presented to the user. The task of checking the possibility of linking multiple Web services is done in the second phase. Once the feasibility of linking Web services is checked, the objective is to provide the user with the best composition of Web services. In the link analysis phase, the Web services are modelled as nodes of a graph and an allpair shortest-path algorithm is applied to find the optimum path at the minimum cost for traversal. The third phase which is the system integration, integrates the results from the preceding two phases by using an original fusion algorithm in the fusion engine. Finally, the recommendation engine which is an integral part of the system integration phase makes the final recommendations including individual and composite Web services to the user. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, extensive experimentation has been performed. Results of the proposed support-based semantic kernel method of Web service discovery are compared with the results of the standard keyword-based information-retrieval method and a clustering-based machine-learning method of Web service discovery. The proposed method outperforms both information-retrieval and machine-learning based methods. Experimental results and statistical analysis also show that the best Web services compositions are obtained by considering 10 to 15 Web services that are found in phase-I for linking. Empirical results also ascertain that the fusion engine boosts the accuracy of Web service discovery by combining the inputs from both the semantic analysis (phase-I) and the link analysis (phase-II) in a systematic fashion. Overall, the accuracy of Web service discovery with the proposed method shows a significant improvement over traditional discovery methods.

Asset specificity and behavioural uncertainty as moderators of the sales growth : employment growth relationship in emerging ventures

Sales growth and employment growth are the two most widely used growth indicators for new ventures; yet, sales growth and employment growth are not interchangeable measures of new venture growth. Rather, they are related, but somewhat independent constructs that respond differently to a variety of criteria. Most of the literature treats this as a methodological technicality. However, sales growth with or without accompanying employment growth has very different implications for managers and policy makers. A better understanding of what drives these different growth metrics has the potential to lead to better decision making. To improve that understanding we apply transaction cost economics reasoning to predict when sales growth will be or will not be accompanied by employment growth. Our results indicate that our predictions are borne out consistently in resource-constrained contexts but not in resource-munificent contexts.

Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

Towards digital facility modelling for Sydney Opera House using IFC and semantic web technology

The challenges of maintaining a building such as the Sydney Opera House are immense and are dependent upon a vast array of information. The value of information can be enhanced by its currency, accessibility and the ability to correlate data sets (integration of information sources). A building information model correlated to various information sources related to the facility is used as definition for a digital facility model. Such a digital facility model would give transparent and an integrated access to an array of datasets and obviously would support Facility Management processes. In order to construct such a digital facility model, two state-of-the-art Information and Communication technologies are considered: an internationally standardized building information model called the Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) and a variety of advanced communication and integration technologies often referred to as the Semantic Web such as the Resource Description Framework (RDF) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL). This paper reports on some technical aspects for developing a digital facility model focusing on Sydney Opera House. The proposed digital facility model enables IFC data to participate in an ontology driven, service-oriented software environment. A proof-of-concept prototype has been developed demonstrating the usability of IFC information to collaborate with Sydney Opera House’s specific data sources using semantic web ontologies.

Uncertainty avoidance: public sector clients and procurement selection

Purpose: Choosing the appropriate procurement system for construction projects is a complex and challenging task for clients particularly when professional advice has not been sought. To assist with the decision making process, a range of procurement selection tools and techniques have been developed by both academic and industry bodies. Public sector clients in Western Australia (WA) remain uncertain about the pairing of procurement method to bespoke construction project and how this decision will ultimately impact upon project success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ a public sector agency selected particular procurement methods. · Methodology/Approach: An analysis of two focus group workshops (with 18 senior project and policy managers involved with procurement selection) is reported upon · Findings: The traditional lump sum (TLS) method is still the preferred procurement path even though alternative forms such as design and construct, public-private-partnerships could optimize the project outcome. Paradoxically, workshop participants agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered, but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance invariably meant that TLS methods were selected. Senior managers felt that only a limited number of contractors have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the nontraditional methods considered. · Research limitations/implications: The research identifies a need to develop a framework that public sector clients can use to select an appropriate procurement method. A procurement framework should be able to guide the decision-maker rather than provide a prescriptive solution. Learning from previous experiences with regard to procurement selection will further provide public sector clients with knowledge about how to best deliver their projects.