An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 differentcompositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression modelsolely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions areapplied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating theunknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephrasinto samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples isproposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets.This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as theirfocus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age ofunknown tephra.Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Changes in prescribing patterns of benzodiazepines after training of general practitioners

RESUMO: Introdução: As benzodiazepinas são os fármacos ansiolíticos e hipnóticos mais utilizados. O elevado consumo destes fármacos tem representado uma preocupação devido aos efeitos secundários do seu uso prolongado e dependência. Portugal tem a maior utilização de benzodiazepinas na Europa. Este estudo pretende analisar a alteração do padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas após uma intervenção com clínicos gerais. Métodos: A intervenção consistiu numa sessão educacional a um grupo de clínicos gerais. Foi comparado o padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas dos médicos intervencionados com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionado da mesma região e com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionados de outra região. Analisaram-­‐se as prescrições de 12 meses antes e depois da intervenção. A análise do padrão de prescrição utilizou como metodologia a Dose Diária Definida (DDD) e a Dose Diária Definida por 1000 pacientes por dia (DHD). A análise estatística recorreu a métodos de regressão segmentada. Resultados: Houve uma diminuição no padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas no grupo intervencionado após a intervenção (p=0.005). Houve também uma redução no padrão de prescrição no grupo não intervencionada da mesma região (p=0.037) e no grupo não-intervencionado da região diferente (p=0.010). Analisando por género, prescritores do género feminino prescrevem uma quantidade maior de benzodiazepinas. Os clínicos gerais do género feminino intervencionados tiveram a maior redução na prescrição após a intervenção (p=0.008). Discussão: Os dados demonstraram que a intervenção reduziu a prescrição de benzodiazepinas após a intervenção. A diminuição geral do padrão de prescrição poderá ser explicada pelo efeito de Hawthorne ou pela contaminação entre os três grupos de clínicos gerais. Os dados disponíveis não explicam as diferenças nos padrões de prescrição por género. Conclusão: Este estudo demonstra como uma única intervenção tem um impacto positivo na melhoria dos padrões de prescrição. A replicação desta intervenção poderá representar uma oportunidade para alterar a prescrição de benzodiazepinas em Portugal. -----------------------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: Benzodiazepines are the most utilized anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs. The high consumption of benzodiazepines has been a concern due to the reported side effects of long-­‐term use and dependence. Portugal has the highest benzodiazepine utilisation in Europe. This study aims to analyse the change in General Practitioners’ (GPs) benzodiazepine prescription pattern after na intervention period. Methods: An educational session was delivered to a group of intervened GPs. The benzodiazepine prescription pattern of the intervened group was compared to the pattern of a non-­‐intervened matched group from the same region, and to the pattern of another non-­‐intervened matched group from a diferente region. The research time frame was 12 month before and after intervention. The analysis of the prescription trends used the Defined Daily Dose (DDD) and Defined Daily Dose per 1000 patients per day (DHD) methodology. The statistical methods consisted of segmented regression analysis. Results: There was a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern of intervened GPs after intervention (p=0.005). There was also a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern for the non-­‐intervened group from the same region (p=0.037) and for the non-­‐ intervened group from a diferente region (p=0.010). Concerningthe analysis by gender, female gender prescribed a higher amount of benzodiazepines. The intervened female gender prescribers presented the highest decrease in prescription trend after intervention (p=0.008). Discussion: The data demonstrated that the intervention was effective in reducing benzodiazepine prescription after intervention. The general decrease in prescription trend might be explained by a Hawthorne effect or a contamination effect between the three groups of GPs. The available data couldn´t explain the diferences in prescription patterns by gender. Conclusion: This study demonstrates how a single intervention has a positive impact on improving prescription trends. The replication of this intervention might be an opportunity to changing the worrying benzodiazepine utilisation in Portugal.

Long-Term Control of Endemic Hospital-Wide Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA): The Impact of Targeted Active Surveillance for MRSA in Patients and Healthcare Workers

To evaluate the long-term impact of successive interventions on rates of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization or infection and MRSA bacteremia in an endemic hospital-wide situation. DESIGN:Quasi-experimental, interrupted time-series analysis. The impact of the interventions was analyzed by use of segmented regression. Representative MRSA isolates were typed by use of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. SETTING:A 950-bed teaching hospital in Seville, Spain. PATIENTS:All patients admitted to the hospital during the period from 1995 through 2008. METHODS:Three successive interventions were studied: (1) contact precautions, with no active surveillance for MRSA; (2) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards, prioritized according to clinical epidemiology data; and (3) targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients admitted from other medical centers. RESULTS:Neither the preintervention rate of MRSA colonization or infection (0.56 cases per 1,000 patient-days [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.49-0.62 cases per 1,000 patient-days]) nor the slope for the rate of MRSA colonization or infection changed significantly after the first intervention. The rate decreased significantly to 0.28 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.17-0.40 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the second intervention and to 0.07 cases per 1,000 patient-days (95% CI, 0.06-0.08 cases per 1,000 patient-days) after the third intervention, and the rate remained at a similar level for 8 years. The MRSA bacteremia rate decreased by 80%, whereas the rate of bacteremia due to methicillin-susceptible S. aureus did not change. Eighty-three percent of the MRSA isolates identified were clonally related. All MRSA isolates obtained from healthcare workers were clonally related to those recovered from patients who were in their care. CONCLUSION:Our data indicate that long-term control of endemic MRSA is feasible in tertiary care centers. The use of targeted active surveillance for MRSA in patients and healthcare workers in specific wards (identified by means of analysis of clinical epidemiology data) and the use of decolonization were key to the success of the program.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Modelos matemáticos para estimar as exigências de lisina digestível para aves de corte ISA Label

O objetivo neste estudo foi avaliar diferentes modelos ajustados às respostas de ganho de peso obtidas em experimento com aves da linhagem ISA Label no período de 1 a 28 dias de idade. Foram utilizados 480 pintos de ambos os sexos, distribuídos em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, em arranjo fatorial 4 X 2 (níveis de lisina X sexo), com três repetições, com 20 aves por unidade experimental. Uma ração basal foi formulada para atender às exigências das aves, exceto em lisina. Essa ração foi suplementada com L-lisina HCl em substituição ao ácido L-glutâmico, resultando em rações experimentais isonitrogênicas e isoenergéticas contendo 0,85; 0,97; 1,09 e 1,21% de lisina digestível. As respostas de ganho de peso foram ajustadas de acordo com os níveis de lisina da ração pelos modelos Linear Reponse Plateau (LRP), segmentado de duas inclinações, polinomial quadrático e exponencial. A primeira intersecção da equação quadrática com o platô do LRP também foi utilizado para estimar o nível ótimo. Os níveis de lisina digestível estimados pelos modelos LRP, segmentado e quadrático, foram 0,999; 1,010 e 1,116%, respectivamente. Na combinação do modelo quadrático com o LRP, a estimativa da exigência de lisina digestível foi de 1,041%. O modelo exponencial proporcionou estimativa de 1,066%, considerando 95% da resposta assintótica. Com base nos custos com alimentação, esse mesmo modelo gerou estimativas de 1,000 e 1,030% quando o custo do quilograma de L-lisina HCl foi R$ 8,50 e R$ 6,50, respectivamente. Considerando as limitações de cada um dos modelos propostos, o procedimento para estimar as exigências de lisina digestível pela primeira intersecção da equação quadrática com o platô do LRP foi o mais adequado para melhorar o ganho de peso das aves quando variáveis econômicas não foram consideradas.

Critical points in logistic growth curves and treatment comparisons

Several biological phenomena have a behavior over time mathematically characterized by a strong increasing function in the early stages of development, then by a less pronounced growth, sometimes showing stability. The separation between these phases is very important to the researcher, since the maintenance of a less productive phase results in uneconomical activity. In this report we present methods of determining critical points in logistic functions that separate the early stages of growth from the asymptotic phase, with the aim of establishing a stopping critical point in the growth and on this basis determine differences in treatments. The logistic growth model is fitted to experimental data of imbibition of arariba seeds (Centrolobium tomentosum). To determine stopping critical points the following methods were used: i) accelerating growth function, ii) tangent at the inflection point, iii) segmented regression; iv) modified segmented regression; v) non-significant difference; and vi) non-significant difference by simulation. The analysis of variance of the abscissas and ordinates of the breakpoints was performed with the objective of comparing treatments and methods used to determine the critical points. The methods of segmented regression and of the tangent at the inflection point lead to early stopping points, in comparison with other methods, with proportions ordinate/asymptote lower than 0.90. The non-significant difference method by simulation had higher values of abscissas for stopping point, with an average proportion ordinate/asymptote equal to 0.986. An intermediate proportion of 0.908 was observed for the acceleration function method.

Determination of a point sufficiently close to the asymptote in nonlinear growth functions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Morphological characterization of follicle deviation in Nelore (Bos indicus) heifers and cows

Follicle diameter deviation is defined as the beginning of the differential change in growth rates between the largest and next largest follicles subsequent to wave emergence and is considered a key component of follicle selection. Follicle selection has been extensively studied in European breeds of cattle (Bos taurus) but has not been critically studied in Zebu breeds (Bos indicus). The objectives of the present study were to determine and compare the morphological characteristics of deviation associated with the first post-ovulatory wave (Wave 1) of the estrous cycle in Nelore heifers (n = 8) and nonlactating cows (n = 11). Beginning on the day of ovulation (day 0), the three largest follicles (F1-F3, respectively) were individually tracked every 12 h for 6 d using transrectal ultrasonography. In individual animals, deviation was determined graphically using visual inspection of the diameter profiles of F1, F2 and sometimes F3 (observed deviation) and mathematically using segmented regression analysis of the diameter differences between F1 and F2 or sometimes F3 (calculated deviation). Mean day of emergence of Wave 1 when F1 reached >3 rum (approximately 1 d after ovulation) and growth rate of F1 during deviation (approximately 1.4 mm/d) were not significantly different between heifers and cows. The results of determining the beginning of deviation within heifers and cows using the observed and calculated methods were not significantly different. Averaged over both methods, diameter deviation occurred 2.8 d after ovulation when F1 reached 5.7 mm in heifers, and 2.4 d after ovulation when F1 reached 6.1 mm in cows. In conclusion, the emergence of Wave 1 and growth rates and diameters of the future dominant follicles at the beginning of deviation were similar in Nelore heifers and nonlactating cows, regardless of the methods used to determine deviation. Relative to Holstein cattle, emergence of Wave 1 appeared to occur about 1 d later and diameter of the future dominant follicle at the beginning of deviation was about 2 turn smaller in Nelore. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Duração do teste de germinação do capim-tanzânia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização ultra-sonográfica do desvio folicular ovariano em vacas da raça nelore (Bos taurus indicus)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Adaptabilidade e estabilidade de cultivares de milho para diferentes safras, espaçamentos e populações de plantas

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS

Estabilidade e adaptabilidade de cultivares de soja, incluindo transgênicas, na região dos chapadões

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS

Avaliação de níveis de proteína digestível para girinos de rã-touro

Pós-graduação em Aquicultura - FCAV