Consumo de eletricidade nas famílias na Região Autónoma dos Açores

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, especialidade em Desenvolvimento Regional.

Abordagem farmacoepidemiológica da terapêutica no idoso: um ensaio em meio hospitalar

Introdução: O envelhecimento demográfico e o aumento da esperança de vida, criam condições para uma maior incidência de doenças degenerativas. Vários aspectos críticos envolvem a medicação no idoso, tais como: polimedicação frequente, com risco acrescido de ocorrência de reacções adversas, relacionadas com interacções medicamentosas e eventual medicação desaconselhada, em que o risco pode ser superior ao benefício. Estes aspectos são particularmente críticos no idoso hospitalizado. Objectivo: Este estudo teve como objectivo estimar a prevalência da polimedicação em idosos hospitalizados e analisar a medicação considerada inadequada nesta população. Participantes e metodologia: Seguiu-se um modelo retrospectivo descritivo transversal, reportando-se os dados a um período de um ano e meio, incidindo sobre o último internamento. A natureza da medicação, foi analisada de acordo com o Formulário Terapêutico Nacional, Resumo das Caracteristicas do Medicamento e com critérios de Beers-2002.Englobou 100 idosos (>65 anos) utentes do Hospital Cuf Descobertas, em regime de internamento. Os dados pessoais e clínicos e respectivo mapa farmacoterapêutico, foram introduzidos em base de dados construída para este estudo, em Access 2003 SP2. Procedeu-se à analise estatística (SPSS 13,0), descritiva, com cálculo de medidas de tendência central; análise univariada para todas as variáveis relevantes e análise bi-variada para quantificar a prevalência da polimedicação por sexo e grupo etário. Resultados:Dos doentes estudados (65-98 anos), maioritariamente femininos, 7 apresentavam 4 patologias em simultâneo, 13:3 patologias, 27:2 patologias e 30:1 patologia. Em 23 não se verificou qualquer patologia crónica. A hipertensão (n=49:27,5%) e a patologia cardiovascular (n=41:23%) foram as mais frequentemente encontradas na amostra em estudo sendo as de menor frequência a patologia reumática (n=1:0,56%), a osteoporose e os problemas psíquicos (n=2:1,12%. A prevalência de polimedicação foi de 84% e nº de medicamentos prescrito em simultâneo variou entre 2 e 23.Não se observou associação entre a polimedicação, a idade: e o sexo. Em apenas um caso foi identificado um medicamento desaconselhado em função do diagnóstico (metoclopramida:Parkinson), e independentemente do diagnóstico a amiodariona foi o mais frequente (25%), hidroxizina (22%), ticlopidina (2%) e cetorolac (1%). Conclusões: A polimedicação é um fenómeno muito frequente nos idosos hospitalizados; o número de medicamentos envolvidos pode ser elevado e a prevalência de medicamentos que requerem uma ponderação sobre o risco/benefício no idoso, indicia a vantagem da revisão da terapêutica, impondo-se a implementação de estratégias informativas sobre os mesmos. Background: The demographic aging and expansion of life expectancy create conditions for increased occurrence of degenerative illnesses. Several critical aspects involve the medication of the elderly, such as: frequent polipharmacy with increased occurrence of adverse drug reactions, related to medication interactions and inappropriate prescribing, in which the benefits can be inferior to the risks.These aspects are particularly critical in the hospitalized elderly. Aim: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of polipharmacy in hospitalized elderly and to analyze the medication considered inappropriate in this population. Participants and Methodology: A cross sectional model was followed, in which the data used relate to a period of a year and a half, focussing on the last hospitalization. The nature of the medication was analysed according to National Therapeutic Formulary, Drug Characteristics Summary and according to Beers-2002.It considered 100 elderly (>65 years) hospitalized at Hospital Cuf Descobertas. The personal and clinical data and the corresponding pharmacotherapeutic registration were introduced in a database created for this study in Access 2003 SP2. Descriptive statistics was calculated trough SPSS 13,0,.Exploraty analysis consisted in measures of average and spread for all variable considered relevant and univariate and bivariate analysis to quantify the prevalence of polipharmacy by sex and age and to relate polipharmacy with inappropriate medication. Results: Of the patients studied (65-98 years), the majority were women, 7 presented 4 pathologies, 13:3 pathologies, 27:2 pathologies and 30:1 pathology. In 23 patients there was any chronic pathology. Hypertension (n=49:27,5%) and cardiovascular disease (n=41:23%) were the most frequent disease in our study, and the minimal values were observed in rheumatism (n=1:0,56%), osteoporosis and psychic disorders (n=2:1,12%. The prevalence of polipharmacy was of 84% and the amount of medication simultaneously prescribed varied between 2 and 23.No association was observed between polipharmacy and age or gender. In only one case inappropriate medication was identified concerning diagnosis (metoclopramid: Parkinson), and independent of diagnosis the amiodaron was the most frequent (25%), hydroxyzin (22%), ticlopidin (2%). and ketorolac (1%). Conclusions: Polipharmacy is very prevalent among elderly people admitted to the hospital; the number of inappropriate medication can also be very high and this evidence should be collected in order to accomplish good drug use reviews and informative strategies in the hospital setting.

Dois ensaios em finanças

In the first chapter, we test some stochastic volatility models using options on the S&P 500 index. First, we demonstrate the presence of a short time-scale, on the order of days, and a long time-scale, on the order of months, in the S&P 500 volatility process using the empirical structure function, or variogram. This result is consistent with findings of previous studies. The main contribution of our paper is to estimate the two time-scales in the volatility process simultaneously by using nonlinear weighted least-squares technique. To test the statistical significance of the rates of mean-reversion, we bootstrap pairs of residuals using the circular block bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1992). We choose the block-length according to the automatic procedure of Politis and White (2004). After that, we calculate a first-order correction to the Black-Scholes prices using three different first-order corrections: (i) a fast time scale correction; (ii) a slow time scale correction; and (iii) a multiscale (fast and slow) correction. To test the ability of our model to price options, we simulate options prices using five different specifications for the rates or mean-reversion. We did not find any evidence that these asymptotic models perform better, in terms of RMSE, than the Black-Scholes model. In the second chapter, we use Brazilian data to compute monthly idiosyncratic moments (expected skewness, realized skewness, and realized volatility) for equity returns and assess whether they are informative for the cross-section of future stock returns. Since there is evidence that lagged skewness alone does not adequately forecast skewness, we estimate a cross-sectional model of expected skewness that uses additional predictive variables. Then, we sort stocks each month according to their idiosyncratic moments, forming quintile portfolios. We find a negative relationship between higher idiosyncratic moments and next-month stock returns. The trading strategy that sells stocks in the top quintile of expected skewness and buys stocks in the bottom quintile generates a significant monthly return of about 120 basis points. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and to Fama and French (1993)’s risk adjustment factors. Finally, we identify a return reversal of stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness. Specifically, stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness have high contemporaneous returns. That tends to reverse, resulting in negative abnormal returns in the following month.

Large-Scale Testing to Study the Effects of Critical Parameters on the Aerodynamic Behavior of Long Span Bridges

Long-span bridges are flexible and therefore are sensitive to wind induced effects. One way to improve the stability of long span bridges against flutter is to use cross-sections that involve twin side-by-side decks. However, this can amplify responses due to vortex induced oscillations. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to evaluate the stability of bridges against wind loads. In order to study the response of the prototype in laboratory, dynamic similarity requirements should be satisfied. One of the parameters that is normally violated in wind tunnel testing is Reynolds number. In this dissertation, the effects of Reynolds number on the aerodynamics of a double deck bridge were evaluated by measuring fluctuating forces on a motionless sectional model of a bridge at different wind speeds representing different Reynolds regimes. Also, the efficacy of vortex mitigation devices was evaluated at different Reynolds number regimes. One other parameter that is frequently ignored in wind tunnel studies is the correct simulation of turbulence characteristics. Due to the difficulties in simulating flow with large turbulence length scale on a sectional model, wind tunnel tests are often performed in smooth flow as a conservative approach. The validity of simplifying assumptions in calculation of buffeting loads, as the direct impact of turbulence, needs to be verified for twin deck bridges. The effects of turbulence characteristics were investigated by testing sectional models of a twin deck bridge under two different turbulent flow conditions. Not only the flow properties play an important role on the aerodynamic response of the bridge, but also the geometry of the cross section shape is expected to have significant effects. In this dissertation, the effects of deck details, such as width of the gap between the twin decks, and traffic barriers on the aerodynamic characteristics of a twin deck bridge were investigated, particularly on the vortex shedding forces with the aim of clarifying how these shape details can alter the wind induced responses. Finally, a summary of the issues that are involved in designing a dynamic test rig for high Reynolds number tests is given, using the studied cross section as an example.

Animal model to compare the effects of suture technique on cross-sectional compliance on end-to-side anastomoses.

OBJECTIVE: An animal model has been developed to compare the effects of suture technique on the luminal dimensions and compliance of end-to-side vascular anastomoses. METHODS: Carotid and internal mammalian arteries (IMAs) were exposed in three pigs (90 kg). IMAs were sectioned distally to perform end-to-side anastomoses on carotid arteries. One anastomosis was performed with 7/0 polypropylene running suture. The other was performed with the automated suture delivery device (Perclose/Abbott Labs Inc.) that makes a 7/0 polypropylene interrupted suture. Four piezoelectric crystals were sutured on toe, heel and both lateral sides of each anastomosis to measure anastomotic axes. Anastomotic cross-sectional area (CSAA) was calculated with: CSAA = pi x mM/4 where m and M are the minor and major axes of the elliptical anastomosis. Cross-sectional anastomotic compliance (CSAC) was calculated as CSAC=Delta CSAA/Delta P where Delta P is the mean pulse pressure and Delta CSAA is the mean CSAA during cardiac cycle. RESULTS: We collected a total of 1200000 pressure-length data per animal. For running suture we had a mean systolic CSAA of 26.94+/-0.4 mm(2) and a mean CSAA in diastole of 26.30+/-0.5 mm(2) (mean Delta CSAA was 0.64 mm(2)). CSAC for running suture was 4.5 x 10(-6)m(2)/kPa. For interrupted suture we had a mean CSAA in systole of 21.98+/-0.2 mm(2) and a mean CSAA in diastole of 17.38+/-0.3 mm(2) (mean Delta CSAA was 4.6+/-0.1 mm(2)). CSAC for interrupted suture was 11 x 10(-6) m(2)/kPa. CONCLUSIONS: This model, even with some limitations, can be a reliable source of information improving the outcome of vascular anastomoses. The study demonstrates that suture technique has a substantial effect on cross-sectional anastomotic compliance of end-to-side anastomoses. Interrupted suture may maximise the anastomotic lumen and provides a considerably higher CSAC than continuous suture, that reduces flow turbulence, shear stress and intimal hyperplasia. The Heartflo anastomosis device is a reliable instrument that facilitates performance of interrupted suture anastomoses.

Using the theory of planned behaviour to model antecedents of surgical checklist use: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND Compliance with surgical checklist use remains an obstacle in the context of checklist implementation programs. The theory of planned behaviour was applied to analyse attitudes, perceived behaviour control, and norms as psychological antecedents of individuals' intentions to use the checklist. METHODS A cross-sectional survey study with staff (N = 866) of 10 Swiss hospitals was conducted in German and French. Group mean differences between individuals with and without managerial function were computed. Structural equation modelling and confirmatory factor analysis was applied to investigate the structural relation between attitudes, perceived behaviour control, norms, and intentions. RESULTS Significant mean differences in favour of individuals with managerial function emerged for norms, perceived behavioural control, and intentions, but not for attitudes. Attitudes and perceived behavioural control had a significant direct effect on intentions whereas norms had not. CONCLUSIONS Individuals with managerial function exhibit stronger perceived behavioural control, stronger norms, and stronger intentions. This could be applied in facilitating checklist implementation. The structural model of the theory of planned behaviour remains stable across groups, indicating a valid model to describe antecedents of intentions in the context of surgical checklist implementation.

Operator's organizational, and direct support maintenance manual : tent, frame-type, sectional, all-weather housing, with door and window assemblies, wood floor dimensions 16 ft. long, 16 ft. wide (model M-1948), (FSN 8340-262-2399).

Includes index.

Use of Homeostatic Model Assessment Indexes for the Identification of Metabolic Syndrome and Insulin Resistance among Cuban-Americans: A Cross Sectional Study

Aim: to determine cut off points for The Homeostatic Model Assessment Index 1 and 2 (HOMA-1 and HOMA-2) for identifying insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome among a Cuban-American population. Study Design: Cross sectional. Place and Duration of Study: Florida International University, Robert Stempel School of Public Health and Social Work, Department of Dietetics and Nutrition, Miami, FL from July 2010 to December 2011. Methodology: Subjects without diabetes residing in South Florida were enrolled (N=146, aged 37 to 83 years). The HOMA1-IR and HOMA2-IR 90th percentile in the healthy group (n=75) was used as the cut-off point for insulin resistance. A ROC curve was constructed to determine the cut-off point for metabolic syndrome. Results: HOMA1-IR was associated with BMI, central obesity, and triglycerides (P3.95 and >2.20 and for metabolic syndrome were >2.98 (63.4% sensitivity and 73.3% specificity) and >1.55 (60.6% sensitivity and 66.7% specificity), respectively. Conclusion: HOMA cut-off points may be used as a screening tool to identify insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome among Cuban-Americans living in South Florida.

Association between osteoporosis and rheumatoid arthritis in women: a cross-sectional study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: Osteoporosis has frequently been observed in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The present study was undertaken in order to evaluate factors associated with osteoporosis among women with rheumatoid arthritis. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study, carried out in a public hospital in São Paulo. METHODS: The participants were 83 women with rheumatoid arthritis (53.7 ± 10.0 years old). Bone mineral density (BMD) and body composition were measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. The patients were divided into three groups according to BMD: group 1, normal BMD (n = 24); group 2, osteopenia (n = 38); and group 3, osteoporosis (n = 21). Tests were performed to compare differences in means and correlations, with adjustments for age, duration of disease and cumulative corticosteroid. The relationships between clinical factors, physical activity score, dietary intake, body composition and biochemical parameters were analyzed using linear regression models. RESULTS: Mean calcium, vitamin D and omega-6 intakes were lower than the recommendations. Associations were found between BMD and age, disease duration, parathyroid hormone concentration and fat intake. The linear regression model showed that being older, with more years of disease and lower weight were negatively correlated with BMD [Total femur = 0.552 + 0.06 (weight) + 0.019 (total physical activity) - 0.05 (age) - 0.003 (disease duration); R² = 48.1; P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that nutritional factors and body composition are associated with bone mass in women with rheumatoid arthritis.

Can type of school be used as an alternative indicator of socioeconomic status in dental caries studies? A cross-sectional study

Background: Despite the importance of collecting individual data of socioeconomic status (SES) in epidemiological oral health surveys with children, this procedure relies on the parents as respondents. Therefore, type of school (public or private schools) could be used as an alternative indicator of SES, instead of collecting data individually. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the variable type of school as an indicator of socioeconomic status as a substitute of individual data in an epidemiological survey about dental caries in Brazilian preschool children. Methods: This study followed a cross-sectional design, with a random sample of 411 preschool children aged 1 to 5 years, representative of Catalao, Brazil. A calibrated examiner evaluated the prevalence of dental caries and parents or guardians provided information about several individual socioeconomic indicators by means of a semi-structured questionnaire. A multilevel approach was used to investigate the association among individual socioeconomic variables, as well as the type of school, and the outcome. Results: When all significant variables in the univariate analysis were used in the multiple model, only mother's schooling and household income (individual socioeconomic variables) presented significant associations with presence of dental caries, and the type of school was not significantly associated. However, when the type of school was used alone, children of public school presented significantly higher prevalence of dental caries than those enrolled in private schools. Conclusions: The type of school used as an alternative indicator for socioeconomic status is a feasible predictor for caries experience in epidemiological dental caries studies involving preschool children in Brazilian context.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .1. Full model

Purlin-sheeting systems used for roofs and walls commonly take the form of cold-formed channel or zed section purlins, screw-connected to corrugated sheeting. These purlin-sheeting systems have been the subject of numerous theoretical and experimental investigations over the past three decades, but the complexity of the systems has led to great difficulty in developing a sound and general model. This paper presents a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element model, capable of predicting the behaviour of purlin-sheeting systems without the need for either experimental input or over simplifying assumptions. The model incorporates both the sheeting and the purlin, and is able to account for cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the flexural and membrane restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The validity of the model is shown by its good correlation with experimental results. A simplified version of this model, which is more suitable for use in a design environment, is presented in a companion paper. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .2. Simplified model

A number of theoretical and experimental investigations have been made into the nature of purlin-sheeting systems over the past 30 years. These systems commonly consist of cold-formed zed or channel section purlins, connected to corrugated sheeting. They have proven difficult to model due to the complexity of both the purlin deformation and the restraint provided to the purlin by the sheeting. Part 1 of this paper presented a non-linear elasto plastic finite element model which, by incorporating both the purlin and the sheeting in the analysis, allowed the interaction between the two components of the system to be modelled. This paper presents a simplified version of the first model which has considerably decreased requirements in terms of computer memory, running time and data preparation. The Simplified Model includes only the purlin but allows for the sheeting's shear and rotational restraints by modelling these effects as springs located at the purlin-sheeting connections. Two accompanying programs determine the stiffness of these springs numerically. As in the Full Model, the Simplified Model is able to account for the cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the shear and rotational restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The model requires no experimental or empirical input and its validity is shown by its goon con elation with experimental results. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY OF THE PHOTOGRAMMETRY FOR SCOLIOSIS EVALUATION: A CROSS-SECTIONAL PROSPECTIVE STUDY

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the reliability and validity of photogrammetry in measuring the lateral spinal inclination angles. Methods: Forty subjects (32 female and 8 males) with a mean age of 23.4 +/- 11.2 years had their scoliosis evaluated by radiographs of their trunk, determined by the Cobb angle method, and by photogrammetry. The statistical methods used included Cronbach alpha, Pearson/Spearman correlation coefficients, and regression analyses. Results: The Cronbach a values showed that the photogrammetric measures showed high internal consistency, which indicated that the sample was bias free. The radiograph method showed to be more precise with intrarater reliabilities of 0.936, 0.975, and 0.945 for the thoracic, lumbar, and thoracolumbar curves, respectively, and interrater reliabilities of 0.942 and 0.879 for the angular measures of the thoracic and thoracolumbar segments, respectively. The regression analyses revealed a high determination coefficient although limited to the adjusted linear model between the radiographic and photographic measures. It was found that with more severe scoliosis, the lateral curve measures obtained with the photogrammetry were for the thoracic and lumbar regions (R = 0.619 and 0.551). Conclusions: The photogrammetric measures were found to be reproducible in this study and could be used as Supplementary information to decrease the number of radiographs necessary for the monitoring of scoliosis. (J Manipulative Physiol Ther 2009;32:423-430)

A dynamic model with on-line identification for rotary sugar drying processes

A dynamic modelling methodology, which combines on-line variable estimation and parameter identification with physical laws to form an adaptive model for rotary sugar drying processes, is developed in this paper. In contrast to the conventional rate-based models using empirical transfer coefficients, the heat and mass transfer rates are estimated by using on-line measurements in the new model. Furthermore, a set of improved sectional solid transport equations with localized parameters is developed in this work to reidentified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.place the global correlation for the computation of solid retention time. Since a number of key model variables and parameters are identified on-line using measurement data, the model is able to closely track the dynamic behaviour of rotary drying processes within a broad range of operational conditions. This adaptive model is validated against experimental data obtained from a pilot-scale rotary sugar dryer. The proposed modelling methodology can be easily incorporated into nonlinear model based control schemes to form a unified modelling and control framework.

Adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter: Application of a stress and coping model

The present study examined the utility of a stress and coping model of adaptation to a homeless shelter among homeless adolescents. Seventy-eight homeless adolescents were interviewed and completed self-administered scales at Time 1 (day of shelter entry) and Time 2 (day of discharge). The mean duration of stay at the shelter was 7.23 days (SD = 7.01). Predictors included appraisal (threat and self-efficacy), coping resources, and coping strategies (productive, nonproductive, and reference to others coping). Adjustment outcomes were Time I measures of global distress, physical health, clinician-and youthworker- rated social adjustment, and externalizing behavior and Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment and goal achievement. Results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated that after controlling for the effects of relevant background variables (number of other shelters visited, sexual, emotional, and physical abuse), measures of coping resources, appraisal, and coping strategies evidenced distinct relations with measures of adjustment in ways consistent with the model's predictions with few exceptions. In cross-sectional analyses better Time I adjustment was related to reports of higher levels of coping resources, self-efficacy beliefs, and productive coping strategies, and reports of lower levels of threat appraisal and nonproductive coping strategies. Prospective analyses showed a link between reports of higher levels of reference to others coping strategies and greater goal achievement and, unexpectedly, an association between lower self-efficacy beliefs and better Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment. Hence, whereas prospective analyses provide only limited support for the use of a stress and coping model in explaining the adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter, cross-sectional findings provide stronger support.