Italy's Path to Very Low Fertility : The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Metal binding selectivity of oxa-aza macrocyclic ligand: a DFT study of first- and second-row transition metal for four coordination systems

A detailed theoretical study of the 1,7,1l,17-tetraoxa-2,6,12,16-tetraaza-cycloeicosane ligand ([20]AneN(4)O(4)) coordinated to Fe2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Ru2+, Rh2+, and Pd2+ transition metal ions was carried out with the B3LYP method. Two different cases were performed: when nitrogen is the donor atom (1a (q) ) and also with the oxygen as the donor atom (1b (q) ). For all the cases performed in this study 1a (q) structures were always more stable than the 1b (q) ones. Considering each row is possible to see that the energy increases with the increase of the atomic number. The M2+ cation binding energies for the 1a (q) complexes increase with the following order: Fe2+ < Ru2+ < Co2+ < Ni2+ < Rh2+ < Pd2+.

First- and second-row transition metal oxa-aza macrocyclic complexes: a DFT study of an octahedral conformation

A theoretical study of structures of the 1,7,1 l,17-tetraoxa-2,6,12,16-tetraaza-cycloeicosane ligand ([20]AneN(4)O(4)) coordinated to Fe2+, Co2+, Ni2+, Ru2+, Rh2+, and Pd2+ transition metals ions was carried out with the DFT/B3LYP method. Complexes were fully optimized in C-s symmetry with the metal ions coordinated either to nitrogen (1a) or oxygen atoms (1b). For all the cases performed in this work, 1a was always more stable than 1b. Considering each row it is possible to see that the binding energy increases with the atomic number. The M2+ cation binding energies increase in the following order: Fe2+ < Ru2+ < Co2+ < Ni2+ < Rh2+ < Pd2+. In addition, it was observed the preference of Pd2+ and Rh2+ complexes for a tetrahedral arrangement, while Fe2+, Ru2+, Co2+, Ni2+ complexes had a preference for the octahedral arrangement. From the orbital representation results, it was seen that 1b unsymmetrical orbitals may influence the susceptibility over metal ions orientation toward heteroatoms orbitals.

Human capital and the quantity–quality trade-off during the demographic transition

This paper provides an empirical test of the child quantity–quality (QQ) trade-off predicted by unified growth theory. Using individual census returns from the 1911 Irish census, we examine whether children who attended school were from smaller families—as predicted by a standard QQ model. To measure causal effects, we use a selection of models robust to endogeneity concerns which we validate for this application using an Empirical Monte Carlo analysis. Our results show that a child remaining in school between the ages of 14 and 16 caused up to a 27 % reduction in fertility. Our results are robust to alternative estimation techniques with different modeling assumptions, sample selection, and alternative definitions of fertility. These findings highlight the importance of the demographic transition as a mechanism which underpinned the expansion in human capital witnessed in Western economies during the twentieth century.

The post-communist fertility puzzle

Fertility has unanimously declined across the entire post-communist region. This study explores the variation in fertility trends over time among these countries and assesses to what degree three explanations are applicable: second demographic transition (SDT), postponement transition (PPT) or reaction to the economic crisis. Moreover, on the basis of SDT and PPT theoretical tenets, as well as descriptive evidence, the economic context is hypothesized to be linked to two processes of fertility decline conversely. The results show that no one theoretical explanation is sufficient to explain the complex fertility declines across the entire post-communist region from 1990 to 2003. In some countries, a great part of the decline in fertility occurred before significant postponement of childbearing began, which indicates that the dramatic decline was due to stopping behavior or postponement of higher order births. Postponement of first births, either through PPT or SDT processes, greatly contributed to fertility decline in a small number of countries. Pooled cross-sectional time-series analyses of age-specific birthrates confirm that these two distinct processes are present and show that the economic crisis explanation has explanatory power for declining birth rates. In contrast, logistic regressions show that the likelihood of postponing childbirth increases with improved economic conditions. These results confirm the importance of taking the economic context into account when discussing explanations for fertility decline. More specifically, the results indicate that the severity and duration of economic crisis, or absence thereof, influenced the extent and manner in which fertility declined.

Eficiencia de los sistema de salud en los países de América Latina y del Caribe desde el indicador de esperanza de vida al nacer para los años 1990 y 2012 frente al gasto total en salud como porcentaje del producto interno bruto para el año 1995 y 2012 “una oportunidad de brenchmarking para el sistema de protección social colombiano”

Para los países emergentes en América Latina y El Caribe se hace necesario determinar la eficiencia de su sistema de salud para generar beneficios a su población desde el indicador de esperanza de vida al nacer y los recursos que se hacen uso desde Colombia en comparación con sus homólogos. Se evidencia que a pesar de Colombia poseer una economía fuerte durante el análisis de los dos momentos se mantiene en la tendencia general de los demás países y con los mismos resultados del indicador. A su vez se concluye que el momento en que se tomaron las decisiones de cambio del sistema de salud es un factor diferenciador en los resultados obtenidos como fue el caso de Costa Rica identificado con el de mejor desempeño en la relación Indicador de esperanza de vida al nacer y Porcentaje de gasto en salud como parte del Producto interno bruto.

Patterns of regional differentiation in post-Soviet Russia

This doctoral thesis aims at contributing to the literature on transition economies focusing on the Russian Federations and in particular on regional income convergence and fertility patterns. The first two chapter deal with the issue of income convergence across regions. Chapter 1 provides an historical-institutional analysis of the period between the late years of the Soviet Union and the last decade of economic growth and a presentation of the sample with a description of gross regional product composition, agrarian or industrial vocation, labor. Chapter 2 contributes to the literature on exploratory spatial data analysis with a application to a panel of 77 regions in the period 1994-2008. It provides an analysis of spatial patterns and it extends the theoretical framework of growth regressions controlling for spatial correlation and heterogeneity. Chapter 3 analyses the national demographic patterns since 1960 and provides a review of the policies on maternity leave and family benefits. Data sources are the Statistical Yearbooks of USSR, the Statistical Yearbooks of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and the Demographic Yearbooks of Russia. Chapter 4 analyses the demographic patterns in light of the theoretical framework of the Becker model, the Second Demographic Transition and an economic-crisis argument. With national data from 1960, the theoretically issue of the pro or countercyclical relation between income and fertility is graphically analyzed and discussed, together with female employment and education. With regional data after 1994 different panel data models are tested. Individual level data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey are employed using the logit model. Chapter 5 employs data from the Generations and Gender Survey by UNECE to focus on postponement and second births intentions. Postponement is studied through cohort analysis of mean maternal age at first birth, while the methodology used for second birth intentions is the ordered logit model.

Análise do desenvolvimento econômico e social do Espírito Santo à luz da transição demográfica

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o desenvolvimento econômico e social capixaba à luz da transição demográfica. Para tanto, procurou-se primeiro contextualizar o debate econômico-demográfico de acordo com diferentes escolas da história do pensamento econômico. Além disso, foi analisado o histórico de desenvolvimento econômico capixaba, na segunda metade do século XX, por meio dos principais indicadores utilizados, tais como PIB e PIB per capita. Por fim, verificou-se como se deu a transição demográfica no Espírito Santo, analisando se o chamado bônus demográfico foi absorvido pelo mercado de trabalho capixaba.

Brazil is getting older: demographic changes and epidemiological challenges

Population ageing is currently a phenomenon not only in developed countries but also in third world countries. In this paper the features of a population's ageing and the process of epidemiological transition are discussed along with the worldwide changes in age-structure. Population statistics in Brazil and the characteristics of the elderly population are presented and analysed in the light of recent changes. The Brazilian elderly population is also discussed, particularly the issues relating to the social cost of the aged population, its urban and rural distribution, the elderly by sex, marital status and level of schooling, and emphasis is given to the imbalance of the sexes and the consequences of it for women.

Age transition of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Before the Aids pandemic, demographic transition and control programs prompted a shift in the age of incidence of tuberculosis from adults to older people in many countries. The objective of the study is to evaluate this transition in Brazil. METHODS: Tuberculosis incidence and mortality data from the Ministry of Health and population data from the Brazilian Bureau of Statistics were used to calculate age-specific incidence and mortality rates and medians. RESULTS: Among reported cases, the proportion of older people increased from 10.5% to 12% and the median age from 38 to 41 years between the period of 1986 and 1996. The smallest decrease in the incidence rate occurred in the 30--49 and 60+ age groups. The median age of death increased from 53 to 55 years between 1980 and 1996. The general decline in mortality rates from 1986 to 1991 became less evident in the 30+ age group during the period of 1991 to 1996. A direct correlation between age and mortality rates was observed. The largest proportion of bacteriologically unconfirmed cases occurred in older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of tuberculosis has begun to shift to the older population. This shift results from the decline in the annual risk of infection as well as the demographic transition. An increase in reactivation tuberculosis in older people is expected, since this population will grow from 5% to 14% of the Brazilian population over the next 50 years. A progressive reduction in HIV-related cases in adults will most likely occur. The difficulty in diagnosing tuberculosis in old age leads to increased mortality.

Demographic Transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility

The effect of mortality reductions on fertility is one of the main mechanisms stressed by the recent growth literature in order to explain demographic transitions. We analyze the empirical relevance of this mechanism based on the experience of all countries since 1960. We distinguish between the effects on gross and net fertility, take into account the dynamic nature of the relationship and control for alternative explanatory factors and for endogeneity. Our results show that mortality plays a large role in fertility reductions, that the change in fertility behavior comes with a lag of about 10 years and that both net and gross fertility are affected. We find comparatively little support for explanations of the demographic transition based on economic development or technological change.

The demographic benefits of belligerence and bravery: defeated group repopulation or victorious group size expansion?

Intraspecific coalitional aggression between groups of individuals is a widespread trait in the animal world. It occurs in invertebrates and vertebrates, and is prevalent in humans. What are the conditions under which coalitional aggression evolves in natural populations? In this article, I develop a mathematical model delineating conditions where natural selection can favor the coevolution of belligerence and bravery between small-scale societies. Belligerence increases an actor's group probability of trying to conquer another group and bravery increase the actors's group probability of defeating an attacked group. The model takes into account two different types of demographic scenarios that may lead to the coevolution of belligerence and bravery. Under the first, the fitness benefits driving the coevolution of belligerence and bravery come through the repopulation of defeated groups by fission of victorious ones. Under the second demographic scenario, the fitness benefits come through a temporary increase in the local carrying capacity of victorious groups, after transfer of resources from defeated groups to victorious ones. The analysis of the model suggests that the selective pressures on belligerence and bravery are stronger when defeated groups can be repopulated by victorious ones. The analysis also suggests that, depending on the shape of the contest success function, costly bravery can evolve in groups of any size.