The reliability of R50 as a measure of vulnerability of food webs to sequential species deletions

Recent studies predict elevated and accelerating rates of species extinctions over the 21st century, due to climate change and habitat loss. Considering that such primary species loss may initiate cascades of secondary extinctions and push systems towards critical tipping points, we urgently need to increase our understanding of if certain sequences of species extinctions can be expected to be more devastating than others Most theoretical studies addressing this question have used a topological (non-dynamical) approach to analyse the probability that food webs will collapse, below a fixed threshold value in species richness, when subjected to different sequences of species loss. Typically, these studies have neither considered the possibility of dynamical responses of species, nor that conclusions may depend on the value of the collapse threshold. Here we analyse how sensitive conclusions on the importance of different species are to the threshold value of food web collapse. Using dynamical simulations, where we expose model food webs to a range of extinction sequences, we evaluate the reliability of the most frequently used index, R<inf>50</inf>, as a measure of food web robustness. In general, we find that R<inf>50</inf> is a reliable measure and that identification of destructive deletion sequences is fairly robust, within a moderate range of collapse thresholds. At the same time, however, focusing on R<inf>50</inf> only hides a lot of interesting information on the disassembly process and can, in some cases, lead to incorrect conclusions on the relative importance of species in food webs.

Beyond species loss: the extinction of ecological interactions in a changing world

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom-up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top-down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non-harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide-ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.

The state and known impacts of fish species transferred to or within continental Africa

Fish introductions have been made from small fish ponds to the largest lakes in Africa. The primary intent of these introductions has been to sustain or increase fish production, although some introductions have been made to develop sport fisheries and to control unwanted organisms. Some of these introductions have fulfilled their objective in the short term, but several of these "successful" introductions have created uncertainties about their long term sustainability. Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus, O. leucostictus, Tilapia melanopleura and T. zilli were introduced into lakes Victoria and Kyoga in 1950s and early 1960s. By the 1980s O. niloticus and O. niloticus dominated the fisheries of these lakes, virtually eliminating a number of endemic fish species. The loss of genetic diversity of the fish in the worlds second largest lake has also been accompanied by a loss of trophic diversity. The transformation of the fish community has, in Lake Victoria coincided with a profound eutrophication (algal blooms, fish kills, hypolimnetic anoxia) which might be related to alterations of the lake's food-web structure. In contrast, the introduction of a planktivore, Limnothrissa miodon into Lake Kivu and the Kariba reservoir has established highly successful fisheries with little documented effect on the pre-existing fish community or trophic ecology of the lakes. The highly endemised species-rich African Great lakes may be particularly sensitive to species introductions and require special consideration and caution when introductions are contemplated because species extinctions, introgressive hybridization and ecosystem alterations may occur following fish introductions.

The 10 Australian ecosystems most vulnerable to tipping points

We identify the 10 major terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Australia most vulnerable to tipping points, in which modest environmental changes can cause disproportionately large changes in ecosystem properties. To accomplish this we independently surveyed the coauthors of this paper to produce a list of candidate ecosystems, and then refined this list during a 2-day workshop. The list includes (1) elevationally restricted mountain ecosystems, (2) tropical savannas, (3) coastal floodplains and wetlands, (4) coral reefs, (5) drier rainforests, (6) wetlands and floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, (7) the Mediterranean ecosystems of southwestern Australia, (8) offshore islands, (9) temperate eucalypt forests, and (10) salt marshes and mangroves. Some of these ecosystems are vulnerable to widespread phase-changes that could fundamentally alter ecosystem properties such as habitat structure, species composition, fire regimes, or carbon storage. Others appear susceptible to major changes across only part of their geographic range, whereas yet others are susceptible to a large-scale decline of key biotic components, such as small mammals or stream-dwelling amphibians. For each ecosystem we consider the intrinsic features and external drivers that render it susceptible to tipping points, and identify subtypes of the ecosystem that we deem to be especially vulnerable. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Tadpole mouthpart depigmentation as an accurate indicator of chytridiomycosis, an emerging disease of amphibians

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease of amphibians caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, and its role in causing population declines and species extinctions worldwide has created an urgent need for methods to detect it. Several reports indicate that in anurans chytridiomycosis can cause the depigmentation of tadpole tnouthparts, but the accuracy of using depigmentation to determine disease status remains uncertain. Our objective was to determine for the Mountain Yellow-legged Frog (Rana muscosa) whether visual inspections of the extent of tadpole mouthpart depigmentation could be used to accurately categorize individual tadpoles or R. muscosa populations as B. dendrobatidis-positive or negative. This was accomplished by assessing the degree of mouthpart depigmentation in tadpoles of known disease status (based on PCR assays). The depigmentation of R. muscosa tadpole mouthparts was associated with the presence of B. dendrobatidis, and this association was particularly strong for upper jaw sheaths. Using a rule that classifies tadpoles with upper jaw sheaths that are 100% pigmented as uninfected and those with jaw sheaths that are <100% pigmented as infected resulted in the infection status of 86% of the tadpoles being correctly classified. By applying this rule to jaw sheath pigmentation scores averaged across all tadpoles inspected per site, we were able to correctly categorize the infection status of 92% of the study populations. Similar research on additional anurans is critically needed to determine how broadly applicable our results for R. muscosa are to other species.

The Population Consequences of Sex and Conflict

Natural selection generally operates at the level of the individual, or more specifically at the level of the gene. As a result, individual selection does not always favour traits which benefit the population or species as a whole. The spread of an individual gene may even act to the detriment of the organism in which it finds. Thus selection at the level of the individual can affect processes at the level of the organism, group or even at the level of the species. As most behaviours ultimately affect births, deaths and the distribution of individuals, it seems inevitable that behavioural decisions will have an impact on population dynamics and population densities. Behavioural decisions can often involve costs through allocation of energy into behavioural strategies, such as the investment into armaments involved in fighting over resources or increased mortality due to injury or increased predation risk. Similarly, behaviour may act o to benefit the population, in terms of higher survival and increased fecundity. Examples include increased investment through parental care, choosing a mate based on the nuptial gifts they may supply and choosing territories in the face of competition. Investigating the impact of behaviour on population ecology may seem like a trivial task, but it is likely to have important consequences at different levels. For example, antagonistic behaviour may occasionally become so extreme that it increases the risk of extinction, and such extinction risk may have important implications for conservation. As a corollary, any such behaviour may also act as a macroevolutionary force, weeding out populations with traits which, whilst beneficial to the individuals in the short term, ultimately result in population extinction. In this thesis, I examine how behaviours, specifically conflict and competition over a resource and aspects of behaviour involved in sexual selection, can affect population densities, and what the implications are for the evolution and ecology of the populations in question. It is found that both behaviours related to individual conflict and mating strategies can have an effect at the level of the population, but that various factors, such as a feedback between selection and population densities or macroevolution caused by species extinctions, may act to limit the intensity of conflicts that we observe in nature.

Ecological consequences of genetic modifications - an invasion analysis approach

Biological invasions are considered as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, as they may lead to disruption and homogenization of natural communities, and in the worst case, to native species extinctions. The introduction of gene modified organisms (GMOs) to agricultural, fisheries and forestry practices brings them into contact with natural populations. GMOs may appear as new invasive species if they are able to (1) invade into natural habitats or (2) hybridize with their wild relatives. The benefits of GMOs, such as increased yield or decreased use of insecticides or herbicides in cultivation, may thus be reduced due the potential risks they may cause. A careful ecological risk analysis therefore has to precede any responsible GMO introduction. In this thesis I study ecological invasion in relation to GMOs, and what kind of consequences invasion may have in natural populations. A set of theoretical models that combine life-history evolution, population dynamics, and population genetics were developed for the hazard identification part of ecological risks assessment of GMOs. In addition, the potential benefits of GMOs in management of an invasive pest were analyzed. In the first study I showed that a population that is fluctuating due to scramble-type density dependence (due to, e.g., nutrient competition in plants) may be invaded by a population that is relatively more limited by a resource (e.g., light in plants) that is a cause of contest-type density dependence. This result emphasises the higher risk of invasion in unstable environments. The next two studies focused on escape of a growth hormone (GH) transgenic fish into a natural population. The results showed that previous models may have given too pessimistic a view of the so called Trojan gene -effect, where the invading genotype is harmful for the population as a whole. The previously suggested population extinctions did not occur in my studies, since the changes in mating preferences caused by the GH-fish were be ameliorated by decreased level of competition. The GH-invaders may also have to exceed a threshold density before invasion can be successful. I also showed that the prevalence of mature parr (aka. sneaker) strategy among GH-fish may have clear effect on invasion outcome. The fourth study assessed the risks and developed methods against the invasion of the Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata). I showed that the eradication of CPB is most important for the prevention of their establishment, but the cultivation of transgenic Bt-potato could also be effective. In general, my results emphasise that invasion of transgenic species or genotypes to be possible under certain realistic conditions and resulting in competitive exclusion, population decline through outbreeding depression and genotypic displacement of native species. Ecological risk assessment should regard the decline and displacement of the wild genotype by an introduced one as a consequence that is as serious as the population extinction. It will also be crucial to take into account different kinds of behavioural differences among species when assessing the possible hazards that GMOs may cause if escaped. The benefits found of GMO crops effectiveness in pest management may also be too optimistic since CPB may evolve resistance to Bt-toxin. The models in this thesis could be further applied in case specific risk assessment of GMOs by supplementing them with detailed data of the species biology, the effect of the transgene introduced to the species, and also the characteristics of the populations or the environments in the risk of being invaded.

Manipulating Interaction Strengths and the Consequences for Trivariate Patterns in a Marine Food Web

We are experiencing a global extinction crisis as a result of climate change and human-induced alteration of natural habitats, with large predators at high trophic levels in food webs being particularly vulnerable. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of food web data that can be used to assess how species extinctions alter the structure and stability of temporally and spatially replicated networks. We established a series of large experimental mesocosms in a shallow subtidal benthic marine system and constructed food webs for each replicate. After 6 months of community assembly, we removed large predators from the core communities of 20 experimental food webs, based on the strength of their trophic interactions, and monitored the changes in the networks' structure and stability over an 8-month period. Our analyses revealed the importance of allometric relationships and size-structuring in natural communities as a means of preserving food web structure and sustainability, despite significant changes in the diversity, stability and productivity of the system.

Consistent patterns and the idiosyncratic effects of biodiversity in marine ecosystems

Revealing the consequences of species extinctions for ecosystem function has been a chief research goal(1-7) and has been accompanied by enthusiastic debate(8-11). Studies carried out predominantly in terrestrial grassland and soil ecosystems have demonstrated that as the number of species in assembled communities increases, so too do certain ecosystem processes, such as productivity, whereas others such as decomposition can remain unaffected(12). Diversity can influence aspects of ecosystem function, but questions remain as to how generic the patterns observed are, and whether they are the product of diversity, as such, or of the functional roles and traits that characterize species in ecological systems. Here we demonstrate variable diversity effects for species representative of marine coastal systems at both global and regional scales. We provide evidence for an increase in complementary resource use as diversity increases and show strong evidence for diversity effects in naturally assembled com-munities at a regional scale. The variability among individual species responses is consistent with a positive but idiosyncratic pattern of ecosystem function with increased diversity.

Impact of biodiversity loss on production in complex marine food webs mitigated by prey-release

Public concern over biodiversity loss is often rationalized as a threat to ecosystem functioning, but biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relations are hard to empirically quantify at large scales. We use a realistic marine food-web model, resolving species over five trophic levels, to study how total fish production changes with species richness. This complex model predicts that BEF relations, on average, follow simple Michaelis-Menten curves when species are randomly deleted. These are shaped mainly by release of fish from predation, rather than the release from competition expected from simpler communities. Ordering species deletions by decreasing body mass or trophic level, representing 'fishing down the food web', accentuates prey-release effects and results in unimodal relationships. In contrast, simultaneous unselective harvesting diminishes these effects and produces an almost linear BEF relation, with maximum multispecies fisheries yield at approximate to 40% of initial species richness. These findings have important implications for the valuation of marine biodiversity.

Climate drives temporal replacement and nested‐resultant richness patterns of Scottish coastal vegetation

Beta diversity quantifies spatial and/or temporal variation in species composition. It is comprised of two distinct components, species replacement and nestedness, which derive from opposing ecological processes. Using Scotland as a case study and a β-diversity partitioning framework, we investigate temporal replacement and nestedness patterns of coastal grassland species over a 34-yr time period. We aim to 1) understand the influence of two potentially pivotal processes (climate and land-use changes) on landscape-scale (5 × 5 km) temporal replacement and nestedness patterns, and 2) investigate whether patterns from one β-diversity component can mask observable patterns in the other.

We summarised key aspects of climate driven macro-ecological variation as measures of variance, long-term trends, between-year similarity and extremes, for three important climatic predictors (minimum temperature, water-balance and growing degree-days). Shifts in landscape-scale heterogeneity, a proxy of land-use change, was summarised as a spatial multiple-site dissimilarity measure. Together, these climatic and spatial predictors were used in a multi-model inference framework to gauge the relative contribution of each on temporal replacement and nestedness patterns.

Temporal β-diversity patterns were reasonably well explained by climate change but weakly explained by changes in landscape-scale heterogeneity. Climate was shown to have a greater influence on temporal nestedness than replacement patterns over our study period, linking nestedness patterns, as a result of imbalanced gains and losses, to climatic warming and extremes respectively. Important climatic predictors (i.e. growing degree-days) of temporal β-diversity were also identified, and contrasting patterns between the two β-diversity components revealed.

Results suggest climate influences plant species recruitment and establishment processes of Scotland's coastal grasslands, and while species extinctions take time, they are likely to be facilitated by climatic perturbations. Our findings also highlight the importance of distinguishing between different components of β-diversity, disentangling contrasting patterns than can mask one another.

Little evidence that condition, stress indicators, sex ratio, or homozygosity are related to landscape or habitat attributes in declining woodland birds

Habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation are drivers of major declines in biodiversity and species extinctions. The actual causes of species population declines following habitat change are more difficult to discern and there is typically high covariation among the measures used to infer the causes of decline. The causes of decline may act directly on individual fitness and survival, or through disruption of population processes. We examined the relationships among configuration, extent and status of native vegetation and three commonly used indicators of individual body condition and chronic stress (haemoglobin level, haematocrit, residual body mass condition index) in 13 species of woodland-dependent birds in south-eastern Australia. We also examined two measures of changes to population processes (sex ratio and individual homozygosity) in ten species and alleic richness in five species. We found little support for relationships between site or landscape characteristics and individual or population response variables, notwithstanding that our simulations showed we had sufficient power to detect relatively small effects. We discuss possible causes of the absence of detectable habitat effects in this system and the implications for the usefulness of individual body condition and easily measured haematological indices as indicators of the response of avian populations to habitat change. © 2012 The Authors.

Multiple threats, or multiplying the threats? Interactions between invasive predators and other ecological disturbances

Invasive species have reshaped the composition of biomes across the globe, and considerable cost is now associated with minimising their ecological, social and economic impacts. Mammalian predators are among the most damaging invaders, having caused numerous species extinctions. Here, we review evidence of interactions between invasive predators and six key threats that together have strong potential to influence both the impacts of the predators, and their management. We show that impacts of invasive predators can be classified as either functional or numerical, and that they interact with other threats through both habitat- and community-mediated pathways. Ecosystem context and invasive predator identity are central in shaping variability in these relationships and their outcomes. Greater recognition of the ecological complexities between major processes that threaten biodiversity, including changing spatial and temporal relationships among species, is required to both advance ecological theory and improve conservation actions and outcomes. We discuss how novel approaches to conservation management can be used to address interactions between threatening processes and ameliorate invasive predator impacts.

A perda de grupos funcionais em comunidades virtuais: efeito das interações entre espécies e grupos funcionais

High levels of local, regional, and global extinctions has progressively simplified communities in terms of both species and ecosystem functioning. Theoretical models demonstrated that the degree of functional redundancy determines the rates of functional group loss in response to species extinctions. Here, we improve the theoretical predictions by incorporating in the model interactions between species and between functional groups. In this study, we tested the effect of different scenarios of interspecific interactions and effects between functional groups on the resistance to loss of community functional groups. Virtual communities have been built with different distribution patterns of species in functional groups, both with high and low evenness. A matrix A was created to represent the net effect of interspecific interactions among all species, representing nesting patterns, modularity, sensitive species, and dominant species. Moreover, a second matrix B was created to represent the interactions between functional groups, also exhibiting different patterns. The extinction probability of each species was calculated based on community species richness and by the intensity of the interspecific interactions that act upon it and group to which it belongs. In the model, successive extinctions decrease the community species richness, the degree of functional redundancy and, consequently, the number of functional groups that remain in the system. For each scenario of functional redundancy, A, and B, we ran 1000 simulations to generate an average functional extinction curve. Different model assumptions were able to generate remarkable variation on functional extinction curves. More extreme variations occurred when the matrix A and B caused a higher heterogeneity in the species extinction probability. Scenarios with sensitive species, positive or negative, showed a greater variation than the scenarios with dominant species. Nested interactions showed greater variation than scenarios where the interactions were in modules. Communities with maximal functional evenness can only be destabilized by the interactions between species and functional groups. In contrast, communities with low functional evenness can have its resistance either increased or decreased by the interactions. The concentration of positive interactions in low redundancy groups or negative interactions in high redundancy groups was able to decrease the functional extinction rates. In contrast, the concentration of negative interactions in low redundancy groups or positive interactions in high redundancy groups was able to increase the functional extinction rates. This model shows results that are relevant for species priorization in ecosystem conservation and restoration