Computer simulations of slowly relaxing systems in external fields

Eine der offenen Fragen der aktuellen Physik ist das Verständnis von Systemen im Nichtgleichgewicht. Im Gegensatz zu der Gleichgewichtsphysik ist in diesem Bereich aktuell kein Formalismus bekannt der ein systematisches Beschreiben der unterschiedlichen Systeme ermöglicht. Um das Verständnis über diese Systeme zu vergrößern werden in dieser Arbeit zwei unterschiedliche Systeme studiert, die unter einem externen Feld ein starkes nichtlineares Verhalten zeigen. Hierbei handelt es sich zum einen um das Verhalten von Teilchen unter dem Einfluss einer extern angelegten Kraft und zum anderen um das Verhalten eines Systems in der Nähe des kritischen Punktes unter Scherung. Das Modellsystem in dem ersten Teil der Arbeit ist eine binäre Yukawa Mischung, die bei tiefen Temperaturen einen Glassübergang zeigt. Dies führt zu einer stark ansteigenden Relaxationszeit des Systems, so dass man auch bei kleinen Kräften relativ schnell ein nichtlineares Verhalten beobachtet. In Abhängigkeit der angelegten konstanten Kraft können in dieser Arbeit drei Regime, mit stark unterschiedlichem Teilchenverhalten, identifiziert werden. In dem zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird das Ising-Modell unter Scherung betrachtet. In der Nähe des kritischen Punkts kommt es in diesem Modell zu einer Beeinflussung der Fluktuationen in dem System durch das angelegte Scherfeld. Dies hat zur Folge, dass das System stark anisotrop wird und man zwei unterschiedliche Korrelationslängen vorfindet, die mit unterschiedlichen Exponenten divergieren. Infolgedessen lässt sich der normale isotrope Formalismus des "finite-size scaling" nicht mehr auf dieses System anwenden. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie dieser auf den anisotropen Fall zu verallgemeinern ist und wie damit die kritischen Punkte, sowie die dazu gehörenden kritischen Exponenten berechnet werden können.

Critical ruptures in a bundle of slowly relaxing fibers

We study the damage enhanced creep rupture of disordered materials by means of a fiber bundle model. Broken fibers undergo a slow stress relaxation modeled by a Maxwell element whose stress exponent m can vary in a broad range. Under global load sharing we show that due to the strength disorder of fibers, the lifetime ʧ of the bundle has sample-to-sample fluctuations characterized by a log-normal distribution independent of the type of disorder. We determine the Monkman-Grant relation of the model and establish a relation between the rupture life tʄ and the characteristic time tm of the intermediate creep regime of the bundle where the minimum strain rate is reached, making possible reliable estimates of ʧ from short term measurements. Approaching macroscopic failure, the deformation rate has a finite time power law singularity whose exponent is a decreasing function of m. On the microlevel the distribution of waiting times is found to have a power law behavior with m-dependent exponents different below and above the critical load of the bundle. Approaching the critical load from above, the cutoff value of the distributions has a power law divergence whose exponent coincides with the stress exponent of Maxwell elements

Fast Acquisition of (13)C NMR Spectra using the Steady-state Free Precession Sequence

In this paper, we show that the steady-state free precession sequence can be used to acquire (13)C high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance spectra and applied to qualitative analysis. The analysis of brucine sample using this sequence with 60 degrees flip angle and time interval between pulses equal to 300 ms (acquisition time, 299.7 ms; recycle delay, 300 ms) resulted in spectrum with twofold enhancement in signal-to-noise ratio, when compared to standard (13)C sequence. This gain was better when a much shorter time interval between pulses (100 ms) was applied. The result obtained was more than fivefold enhancement in signal-to-noise ratio, equivalent to more than 20-fold reduction in total data recording time. However, this short time interval between pulses produces a spectrum with severe phase and truncation anomalies. We demonstrated that these anomalies can be minimized by applying an appropriate apodization function and plotting the spectrum in the magnitude mode.

Determination of T1pH relaxation rates in charred and uncharred wood and consequences for NMR quantitation

The performance of three different techniques for determining proton rotating frame relaxation rates (T1pH) in charred and uncharred woods is compared. The variable contact time (VCT) experiment is shown to over-estimate T1pH, particularly for the charred samples, due to the presence of slowly cross-polarizing C-13 nuclei. The variable spin (VSL) or delayed contact experiment is shown to overcome these problems; however, care is needed in the analysis to ensure rapidly relaxing components are not overlooked. T1pH is shown to be non-uniform for both charred and uncharred wood samples; a rapidly relaxing component (T1pH = 0.46-1.07 ms) and a slowly relaxing component (T1pH = 3.58-7.49) is detected in each sample. T1pH for each component generally decreases with heating temperature (degree of charring) and the proportion of rapidly relaxing component increases. Direct T1pH determination (via H-1 detection) shows that all samples contain an even faster relaxing component (0.09-0.24 ms) that is virtually undetectable by the indirect (VCT and VSL) techniques. A new method for correcting for T1pH signal losses in spin counting experiments is developed to deal with the rapidly relaxing component detected in the VSL experiment. Implementation of this correction increased the proportion of potential C-13 CPMAS NMR signal that can be accounted for by up to 50% for the charred samples. An even greater proportion of potential signal can be accounted for if the very rapidly relaxing component detected in the direct T1pH determination is included; however, it must be kept in mind that this experiment also detects H-1 pools which may not be involved in H-1-C-13 cross-polarization. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and ultrasound

The work described in this thesis is directed to the examination of the hypothesis that ultrasound may be used to perturb molecular motion in the liquid phase. These changes can then be detected by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) in spin-lattice and spin-spin relaxation times. The objective being to develop a method capable of reducing the pulsed NMR acquisition times of slowly relaxing nuclei. The thesis describes the theoretical principles underlying both NMR spectroscopy and ultrasonics with particular attention being paid to factors that impinge on testing the above hypothesis. Apparatus has been constructed to enable ultrasound at frequencies between 1 and 10 mega-hertz with a variable power up to 100W/cm-2 to be introduced in the NMR sample. A broadband high frequency generator is used to drive PZT piezo-electric transducer via various transducer to liquid coupling arrangements. A commercial instrument of 20 kilo-hertz has also been employed to test the above hypothesis and also to demonstrate the usefulness of ultrasound in sonochemistry. The latter objective being, detection of radical formation in monomer and polymer ultrasonic degradation. The principle features of the results obtained are: Ultrasonic perturbation of T1 is far smaller for pure liquids than is for mixtures. The effects appear to be greater on protons (1H) than on carbon-13 nuclei (13C) relaxation times. The observed effect of ultrasonics is not due to temperature changes in the sample. As the power applied to the transducer is progressively increased T1 decreases to a minimum and then increases. The T1's of the same nuclei in different functional groups are influenced to different extents by ultrasound. Studies of the 14N resonances from an equimolar mixture of N, N-dimethylformamide and deuterated chloroform with ultrasonic frequencies at 1.115, 6, 6.42 and 10 MHz show that as the frequency is increased the NMR signal to noise ratio decreases to zero at the Larmor frequency of 6.42 MHz and then again rises. This reveals the surprising indication that an effect corresponding to nuclear acoustic saturation in the liquid may be observable. Ultrasonic irradiation of acidified ammonium chloride solution at and around 6.42 MHz appears to cause distinctive changes in the proton-nitrogen J coupling resonance at 89.56 MHz. Ultrasonic irradiation of N, N-dimethylacetamide at 2 KHz using the lowest stable power revealed the onset of coalescence in the proton spectrum. The corresponding effect achieved by direct heating required a temperature rise of approximately 30oC. The effects of low frequency (20 KHz) on relaxation times appear to be nil. Detection of radical formation proved difficult but is still regarded as the principle route for monomer and polymer degradation. The initial hypothesis is considered proven with the results showing significant changes in the mega-hertz region and none at 20 KHz.

Finite element modelling of rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems

We use the finite element method to simulate the rock alteration and metamorphic process in hydrothermal systems. In particular, we consider the fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated porous rocks. Since the fluid rock interaction takes place at the contact interface between the pore-fluid and solid minerals, it is governed by the chemical reaction which usually takes place very slowly at this contact interface, from the geochemical point of view. Due to the relative slowness of the rate of the chemical reaction to the velocity of the pore-fluid flow in the hydrothermal system to be considered, there exists a retardation zone, in which the conventional static theory in geochemistry does not hold true. Since this issue is often overlooked by some purely numerical modellers, it is emphasized in this paper. The related results from a typical rock alteration and metamorphic problem in a hydrothermal system have shown not only the detailed rock alteration and metamorphic process, but also the size of the retardation zone in the hydrothermal system. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Physical Properties of a Hapludox after Three Decades under Different Soil Management Systems

ABSTRACT Changes in soil physical properties due to different management systems occur slowly, and long-term studies are needed to assess soil quality. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of soil management systems and liming methods on the physical properties of a Latossolo Bruno Alumínico típico (Hapludox). A long-term experiment that began in 1978 with conventional and no-tillage systems was assessed. In addition, different liming methods (no lime, incorporated lime, and lime on the soil surface) have been applied since 1987 and were also evaluated in this study. Moreover, an area of native forest was evaluated and considered a reference for the natural condition of the soil. Soil physical properties were evaluated in layers to a depth of 1.00 m. Compared to native forest, the conventional tillage and no-tillage systems had higher soil bulk density, penetration resistance, and microporosity, and lower aggregate stability and macroporosity. Compared to the conventional tillage system, long-term no-tillage improved the structure of the Hapludox, as evidenced by increased microporosity and aggregate stability, especially in the soil surface layer. In no-tillage with lime applications sporadically incorporated, soil physical properties did not differ from no-tillage without lime and with lime applied on the soil surface, indicating that this practice maintains the physical quality of soil under no-tillage. Liming in a conventional tillage system improved soil aggregation and reduces penetration resistance in the soil layers near the soil surface. No-tillage was the main practice related to improvement of soil physical quality, and liming methods did not influence soil physical properties in this soil management system.

Distribution systems of the food sector in Russia: the perspective of Finnish food industry

Finnish food producers' trade with Russia has experienced profound changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, the distribution systems of foodstuffs have changed remarkably. This study sheds some light into these changes and analyses the current situation in distribution systems of foodstuffs in Russia. In addition, the study discusses the possibilities of Finnish food producers to get more of their products to the shelves of Russian food retail stores. Before the 1998 financial crisis, the import of foreign foodstuffs was booming in Russia due to the overvalued rouble. As a result of the financial crisis, food import collapsed. The export of Finnish foodstuffs to Russia has been slowly recovering during the past few years, but in the most important product categories the pre-crisis levels have so far not been reached and maybe will not be reached. In certain product categories the growth has been only marginal. It seems that starting localproduction will become increasingly important in the future. This is further encouraged by the fact that Russian consumers favour domestic food products. Russian consumers are very price conscious and demand quality in food products. The perceived price-quality ratio is an important criterion in the purchase decision.The majority of foodstuff retail is still conducted via unorganised forms of trade (e.g. kiosks and marketplaces) but modern retail chains are developing at a fast pace in Russia. They are also expected to dominate the retail trade in foodstuffs over the unorganised forms of trade in the future. This will change the distribution systems as well. The retail chains are trying to shorten the distribution chain, similarly to what has been seen in the Western countries. This together with the strengthening of retail chains is likely to shrink the role of wholesalers, as the chains increasingly want to work directly with the producers. Many large retail chains are acquiring or have already acquired a distribution centre or centres in order to boost efficiency and control the flow of products. The strengthening of the retail chains also gives them power in negotiations, which the producers and distributors have to adjust to. For example store entry fees and retail chains' own private label products pose challenges to the food producers. In the food production sector the competition is fierce, as large Russianand foreign producers want to ensure their piece of the market. The largest producers utilise their size: they invest in big marketing campaigns and are willing to pay high entry fees to retail chains in order to secure a place on the store shelves and to build a strong brand in Russia. This complicates the situation from the viewpoint of small producers. Currently, the most popular type of distribution system among the interviewed Finnish food producers is based on a network of local distributors. There is, however, a strong consensus on the importanceof starting local production in order to be a serious actor in Russia in the future. Factors that hinder the starting of local production include the lack of local infrastructure and qualified staff, and the low risk tolerance of Finnish firms. Major barriers for entry in Russia are the actions of authorities, fierce competition, fragmented market and Finnish producers' heavy production costs. The suggested strategies for increasing the market share include focusing geographically or segment-wise, introducing new products, starting local production, andcooperation between Finnish producers. Smallness was one reason why Finnish producers had to cut down their operations in Russia due to the 1998 crisis. Smaller producers had fewer resources to tolerate losses during the period of crisis. Smallness is reflected also on trade negotiations with retail chains and distributors. It makes it harder to cope with the store entry fees and to differentiatefrom the mass of products propped up by expensive advertising. Finally, it makes it harder for Finnish producers to start or expand local production, as it is more difficult for a small producer to get financing and to tolerate the increased risks. Compensating for the smallness might become the crucial factor determining the future success of Finnish food producers in the Russian market.

Influence of surface functionalization on the behavior of silica nanoparticles in biological systems

Personalized nanomedicine has been shown to provide advantages over traditional clinical imaging, diagnosis, and conventional medical treatment. Using nanoparticles can enhance and clarify the clinical targeting and imaging, and lead them exactly to the place in the body that is the goal of treatment. At the same time, one can reduce the side effects that usually occur in the parts of the body that are not targets for treatment. Nanoparticles are of a size that can penetrate into cells. Their surface functionalization offers a way to increase their sensitivity when detecting target molecules. In addition, it increases the potential for flexibility in particle design, their therapeutic function, and variation possibilities in diagnostics. Mesoporous nanoparticles of amorphous silica have attractive physical and chemical characteristics such as particle morphology, controllable pore size, and high surface area and pore volume. Additionally, the surface functionalization of silica nanoparticles is relatively straightforward, which enables optimization of the interaction between the particles and the biological system. The main goal of this study was to prepare traceable and targetable silica nanoparticles for medical applications with a special focus on particle dispersion stability, biocompatibility, and targeting capabilities. Nanoparticle properties are highly particle-size dependent and a good dispersion stability is a prerequisite for active therapeutic and diagnostic agents. In the study it was shown that traceable streptavidin-conjugated silica nanoparticles which exhibit a good dispersibility could be obtained by the suitable choice of a proper surface functionalization route. Theranostic nanoparticles should exhibit sufficient hydrolytic stability to effectively carry the medicine to the target cells after which they should disintegrate and dissolve. Furthermore, the surface groups should stay at the particle surface until the particle has been internalized by the cell in order to optimize cell specificity. Model particles with fluorescently-labeled regions were tested in vitro using light microscopy and image processing technology, which allowed a detailed study of the disintegration and dissolution process. The study showed that nanoparticles degrade more slowly outside, as compared to inside the cell. The main advantage of theranostic agents is their successful targeting in vitro and in vivo. Non-porous nanoparticles using monoclonal antibodies as guiding ligands were tested in vitro in order to follow their targeting ability and internalization. In addition to the targeting that was found successful, a specific internalization route for the particles could be detected. In the last part of the study, the objective was to clarify the feasibility of traceable mesoporous silica nanoparticles, loaded with a hydrophobic cancer drug, being applied for targeted drug delivery in vitro and in vivo. Particles were provided with a small molecular targeting ligand. In the study a significantly higher therapeutic effect could be achieved with nanoparticles compared to free drug. The nanoparticles were biocompatible and stayed in the tumor for a longer time than a free medicine did, before being eliminated by renal excretion. Overall, the results showed that mesoporous silica nanoparticles are biocompatible, biodegradable drug carriers and that cell specificity can be achieved both in vitro and in vivo.

Studies on the Synthesis and Transformations of A Few Dibenzoylalkene – Type Systems

The aim of the study is to synthesise several dibenzoylakene-type systems such as acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones 47 and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones 48 by the condensation reaction of acenaphthenequinone and phenanthrenequinone with methyl ketones. Here studies the thermal and photochemical transformations of acenaphthaenone-2-ylidene ketones 3a-c.These acenaphthenone –2-ylidene ketones underwent extensive decomposition on heating. The objectives of present study is to synthesise acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of acenaphthenequinone and methyl ketones, it is to synthesise phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of phenanthrequinone and methyl ketones, thermal studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones, photochemical studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones to establish the generality of dibenzoyalkene rearrangement. Cyclic voltammetric studies on these dibezoyalkenes to compare their redox behaviour with that of the cis and trans isomers of dibenzoyl-ethylene, dibenzoylstilbene. These results should provide some information about their reactivity, and to assess and exploit the potential of these systems as quinonemethides. This study conclude that a number of new dibenzolalkene-type systems have been synthesized by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of 1,2-diketones such as phenanthequinone and acenaphthenequinone with methyl ketones. Some of these compounds have been shown to undergo interesting photochemical transformations. Based on the results it is conclude that phenanthjrenone-9-ylidene ketones are excellent Michael acceptors. Methanol adds to these to yield the corresponding furanols. These furanols are unstable and are slowly converted to phenanthro-2 (3H)-furanones.

Studies on the Synthesis and Transformations of a Few Dibenzoylalkene-type Systems

The aim of the study is to synthesise several dibenzoylakene-type systems such as acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones 47 and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones 48 by the condensation reaction of acenaphthenequinone and phenanthrenequinone with methyl ketones. Here studies the thermal and photochemical transformations of acenaphthaenone-2-ylidene ketones 3a-c.These acenaphthenone –2-ylidene ketones underwent extensive decomposition on heating. The objectives of present study is to synthesise acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of acenaphthenequinone and methyl ketones, it is to synthesise phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of phenanthrequinone and methyl ketones, thermal studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone-9-ylidene ketones, photochemical studies on acenaphthenone-2-ylidene ketones and phenanthrenone –9-ylidene ketones to establish the generality of dibenzoyalkene rearrangement. Cyclic voltammetric studies on these dibezoyalkenes to compare their redox behaviour with that of the cis and trans isomers of dibenzoyl-ethylene, dibenzoylstilbene. These results should provide some information about their reactivity, and to assess and exploit the potential of these systems as quinonemethides. This study conclude that a number of new dibenzolalkene-type systems have been synthesized by the Claisen-Schmidt condensation of 1,2-diketones such as phenanthequinone and acenaphthenequinone with methyl ketones. Some of these compounds have been shown to undergo interesting photochemical transformations. Based on the results it is conclude that phenanthjrenone-9-ylidene ketones are excellent Michael acceptors. Methanol adds to these to yield the corresponding furanols. These furanols are unstable and are slowly converted to phenanthro-2 (3H)-furanones

Competition in tree row agroforestry systems. 3. Soil water distribution and dynamics

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that soil water content would vary spatially with distance from a tree row and that the effect would differ according to tree species. A field study was conducted on a kaolinitic Oxisol in the sub-humid highlands of western Kenya to compare soil water distribution and dynamics in a maize monoculture with that under maize (Zea mays L.) intercropped with a 3-year-old tree row of Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. Ex R. Br. (grevillea) and hedgerow of Senna spectabilis DC. (senna). Soil water content was measured at weekly intervals during one cropping season using a neutron probe. Measurements were made from 20 cm to a depth of 225 cm at distances of 75, 150, 300 and 525 cm from the tree rows. The amount of water stored was greater under the sole maize crop than the agroforestry systems, especially the grevillea-maize system. Stored soil water in the grevillea-maize system increased with increasing distance from the tree row but in the senna-maize system, it decreased between 75 and 300 cm from the hedgerow. Soil water content increased least and more slowly early in the season in the grevillea-maize system, and drying was also evident as the frequency of rain declined. Soil water content at the end of the cropping season was similar to that at the start of the season in the grevillea-maize system, but about 50 and 80 mm greater in the senna-maize and sole maize systems, respectively. The seasonal water balance showed there was 140 mm, of drainage from the sole maize system. A similar amount was lost from the agroforestry systems (about 160 mm in the grevillea-maize system and 145 mm in the senna-maize system) through drainage or tree uptake. The possible benefits of reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration close to a tree row were not evident in the grevillea-maize system, but appeared to greatly compensate for water uptake losses in the senna-maize system. Grevillea, managed as a tree row, reduced stored soil water to a greater extent than senna, managed as a hedgerow.

The quasi-nondispersive regimes of long extratropical baroclinic rossby waves over (slowly varying) topography

Actual energy paths of long, extratropical baroclinic Rossby waves in the ocean are difficult to describe simply because they depend on the meridional-wavenumber-to-zonal-wavenumber ratio tau, a quantity that is difficult to estimate both observationally and theoretically. This paper shows, however, that this dependence is actually weak over any interval in which the zonal phase speed varies approximately linearly with tau, in which case the propagation becomes quasi-nondispersive (QND) and describable at leading order in terms of environmental conditions (i.e., topography and stratification) alone. As an example, the purely topographic case is shown to possess three main kinds of QND ray paths. The first is a topographic regime in which the rays follow approximately the contours f/h(alpha c) = a constant (alpha(c) is a near constant fixed by the strength of the stratification, f is the Coriolis parameter, and h is the ocean depth). The second and third are, respectively, "fast" and "slow" westward regimes little affected by topography and associated with the first and second bottom-pressure-compensated normal modes studied in previous work by Tailleux and McWilliams. Idealized examples show that actual rays can often be reproduced with reasonable accuracy by replacing the actual dispersion relation by its QND approximation. The topographic regime provides an upper bound ( in general a large overestimate) of the maximum latitudinal excursions of actual rays. The method presented in this paper is interesting for enabling an optimal classification of purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems into simpler idealized QND wave regimes, which helps to rationalize previous empirical findings that the ray paths of long Rossby waves in the presence of mean flow and topography often seem to be independent of the wavenumber orientation. Two important side results are to establish that the baroclinic string function regime of Tyler and K se is only valid over a tiny range of the topographic parameter and that long baroclinic Rossby waves propagating over topography do not obey any two-dimensional potential vorticity conservation principle. Given the importance of the latter principle in geophysical fluid dynamics, the lack of it in this case makes the concept of the QND regimes all the more important, for they are probably the only alternative to provide a simple and economical description of general purely azimuthally dispersive wave systems.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.