Towards a nutrient export risk matrix approach to managing agricultural pollution at source

A generic Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM) approach is presented. This provides advice to farmers and policy makers on good practice for reducing nutrient loss and is intended to persuade them to implement such measures. Combined with a range of nutrient transport modelling tools and field experiments, NERMs can play an important role in reducing nutrient export from agricultural land. The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is presented as an example NERM. The PERM integrates hydrological understanding of runoff with a number of agronomic and policy factors into a clear problem-solving framework. This allows farmers and policy makers to visualise strategies for reducing phosphorus loss through proactive land management. The risk Of Pollution is assessed by a series of informed questions relating to farming intensity and practice. This information is combined with the concept of runoff management to point towards simple, practical remedial strategies which do not compromise farmers' ability to obtain sound economic returns from their crop and livestock.

Matrix metalloproteinase-2 polymorphism is associated with prognosis in prostate cancer

Objective: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most frequent tumor in males in Brazil. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) have been demonstrated in the promoter region of matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) genes and have been associated with development and progression of some cancers. In this study, our aim was to investigate a possible relation between polymorphism of the promoter region of the MMP2 gene and classical prognostic parameters in prostate cancer. Materials and methods: Genomic DNA was extracted using conventional protocols. The DNA sequence containing the polymorphic site was amplified by real-time polymerase chain reaction, using fluorescent probes (TaqMan). Results: In patients with tumors of a higher stage (pT3), a polymorphic allele in the MMP2 gene was more frequent (P = 0.026) than in patients with lower tumor stage. A polymorphic allele in the MMP2 gene was more frequent in Gleason >= 7 than in Gleason <= 6 (P = 0.042). Conclusions: We conclude that MMP2 polymorphism can be used together with pathological stage and Gleason score to identify patients with worse prognosis. Our results illustrate the potential use of MMP2 SNP as a molecular marker for prostate cancer. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polymorphisms of the matrix metalloproteinases associated with prostate cancer

Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common type of malignant tumor in Brazilian males. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been demonstrated to be present in the promoter region of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) genes and have been associated with the development and progression of some cancers. In this study, our aim was to investigate the association between the polymorphisms of MMP1, 2, 7, and 9 and susceptibility, and their correlation with the classic prognostic parameters of PCa. For genes MMP1, 2 and 9, the frequencies of the polymorphic homozygote genotypes were higher in the control group than in the PCa group (P<0.0001). We conclude that the MMP1, 2 and 9 polymorphisms are more common in the control group than in patients with PCa, and may have a protective effect in the development of this neoplasia.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Defining risk acceptance criteria in occupational settings: A case study in the furniture industrial sector

The use of appropriate acceptance criteria in the risk assessment process for occupational accidents is an important issue but often overlooked in the literature, particularly when new risk assessment methods are proposed and discussed. In most cases, there is no information on how or by whom they were defined, or even how companies can adapt them to their own circumstances. Bearing this in mind, this study analysed the problem of the definition of risk acceptance criteria for occupational settings, defining the quantitative acceptance criteria for the specific case study of the Portuguese furniture industrial sector. The key steps to be considered in formulating acceptance criteria were analysed in the literature review. By applying the identified steps, the acceptance criteria for the furniture industrial sector were then defined. The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) for the injury statistics of the industrial sector was identified as the maximum tolerable risk level. The acceptable threshold was defined by adjusting the CDF to the Occupational, Safety & Health (OSH) practitioners’ risk acceptance judgement. Adjustments of acceptance criteria to the companies’ safety cultures were exemplified by adjusting the Burr distribution parameters. An example of a risk matrix was also used to demonstrate the integration of the defined acceptance criteria into a risk metric. This work has provided substantial contributions to the issue of acceptance criteria for occupational accidents, which may be useful in overcoming the practical difficulties faced by authorities, companies and experts.

Development of a model for occupational risk acceptance criteria definition in industrial settings

Doctoral Dissertation for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales

A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).

Association between matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 polymorphisms and MMP-2 levels in hypertensive disorders of pregnancy

We examined whether two functional polymorphisms (g.-1306 C> T and g.-735 C>T) in matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-2 gene are associated with preeclampsia (PE) or gestational hypertension (GH), and whether they modify MMP-2 or tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase (TIMP)-2 plasma concentrations in these hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. We studied 130 healthy pregnant (HP), 130 pregnant with GH, and 133 pregnant with PE. Genomic DNA was extracted from whole blood and genotypes for g.-1306 C>T and g.-735 C>T polymorphisms were determined by Real Time-PCR, using Taqman allele discrimination assays. Haplotypes were inferred using the PHASE program. Plasma MMP-2 and TIMP-2 concentrations were measured by ELISA. The main findings were that pregnant with PE have higher plasma MMP-2 and TIMP-2 concentrations than HP (P<0.05), although the MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratios were similar (P>0.05). Moreover, pregnant with GH have elevated plasma MMP-2 levels and MMP-2/TIMP-2 ratios compared to HP (P<0.05). While MMP-2 genotypes and haplotypes are not linked with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, MMP-2 genotypes and haplotypes are associated with significant alterations in plasma MMP-2 and TIMP-2 concentrations in preeclampsia (P<0.05). Our findings may help to understand the relevance of MMP-2 and its genetic polymorphisms to the pathophysiology of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. It is possible that patients with PE and the MMP-2 haplotype combining the C and T alleles for the g.-1306 C>T and g.-735 C>T polymorphisms may benefit from the use of MMPs inhibitors such as doxycycline. However, this possibility remains to be determined. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A kockázat mint látens fogalom (Risk - A latent concept)

A kockázat statisztikai értelemben közvetlenül nem mérhető, azaz látens fogalom éppen úgy, mint a gazdasági fejlettség, a szervezettség vagy az intelligencia. Mi bennünk a közös? A kockázat is komplex fogalom, több mérhető tényezőt foglal magában, és bár sok tényezőjét mérjük, fel sem tételezzük, hogy pontos eredményt kapunk. Ebben a megközelítésben az elemző kezdettől fogva tudja, hogy hiányos az ismerete. Ezt Bélyácz [2011[ nyomán úgy is megfogalmazhatjuk: „A statisztikusok tudják, hogy valamit éppen nem tudnak.” / === / From statistical point of view risk, like economic development is a latent concept. Typically there is no one number which can explicitly estimate or project risk. Variance is used as a proxy in finance to measure risk. Other professions are using other concepts for risk. Underwriting is the most important step in insurance business to analyse exposure. Actuaries evaluate average claim size and the probability of claim to calculate risk. Bayesian credibility can be used to calculate insurance premium combining frequencies and empirical knowledge, as a prior. Different types of risks can be classified into a risk matrix to separate insurable risk. Only this category can be analysed by multivariate statistical methods, which are based on statistical data. Sample size and frequency of events are relevant not only in insurance, but in pension and investment decisions as well.

Gestão de risco: caso da Sonae Indústria

Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes

Segurança contra incêndio em edifícios no núcleo histórico de Ponta Delgada : acessibilidade, estado de conservação dos edifícios e disponibilidade de água para o combate a incêndios

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ambiente, Saúde e Segurança.

Tapahtumien tutkinnan systematisointi Loviisan voimalaitoksella

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee tapahtumien tutkinnan systematisointia Loviisan voimalaitoksella. Nykyisin Loviisan voimalaitoksella tutkitaan tapahtumia usealla tavalla eikä raporttien tuloksia pystytä täysin hyödyntämään. Diplomityössä käydään läpi erilaisia tapahtumien tutkintamenetelmiä sekä tutustutaan perussyyanalyysimenetelmiin. Matalan tason tapahtumien tutkintaan kehitettiin kysymyslista, jolla saadaan helposti selville tapahtumien ongelma-alueet. Kysymyslista mahdollisti myös tapahtumien laaja-alaisen luokittelun, jonka avulla tunnistetaan eri tapahtumien kautta ilmenneitä yhteisiä ongelma-alueita. Tapahtumien tutkintaan liittyy myös riskien arviointi. Tässä diplomityössä kehitettiin riskimatriisi tapahtuman vakavuuden ja jatkoselvitystarpeen arvioinnin avuksi. Perussyyanalyysimenetelmistä AcciMap-menetelmä osoittautui käyttökelpoiseksi ja sitä suositellaan kokeiltavaksi seuraavan inhimilliseen toimintaan liittyvän perussyyanalyysin yhteydessä.

A multi-scale framework for strategic management of diffuse pollution

A multi-scale framework for decision support is presented that uses a combination of experiments, models, communication, education and decision support tools to arrive at a realistic strategy to minimise diffuse pollution. Effective partnerships between researchers and stakeholders play a key part in successful implementation of this strategy. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is introduced as a set of visualisations that can be used at all scales, both to inform decision making and as a communication tool in stakeholder workshops. A demonstration farm is presented and one of its fields is taken as a case study. Hydrological and nutrient flow path models are used for event based simulation (TOPCAT), catchment scale modelling (INCA) and field scale flow visualisation (TopManage). One of the DSMs; The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is discussed in detail. The PERM was developed iteratively as a point of discussion in stakeholder workshops, as a decision support and education tool. The resulting interactive PERM contains a set of questions and proposed remediation measures that reflect both expert and local knowledge. Education and visualisation tools such as GIS, risk indicators, TopManage and the PERM are found to be invaluable in communicating improved farming practice to stakeholders. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A framework for assessing continuing professional development activities for satisfying pharmacy revalidation requirements

The United Kingdom’s pharmacy regulator contemplated using continuing professional development (CPD) in pharmacy revalidation in 2009, simultaneously asking pharmacy professionals to demonstrate the value of their CPD by showing its relevance and impact. The idea of linking new CPD requirements with revalidation was yet to be explored. Our aim was to develop and validate a framework to guide pharmacy professionals to select CPD activities that are relevant to their work and to produce a score sheet that would make it possible to quantify the impact and relevance of CPD. METHODS: We adapted an existing risk matrix, producing a CPD framework consisting of relevance and impact matrices. Concepts underpinning the framework were refined through feedback from five pharmacist teacher-practitioners. We then asked seven pharmacists to rate the relevance of the framework’s individual elements on a 4-point scale to determine content validity. We explored views about the framework through focus groups with six and interviews with 17 participants who had used it formally in a study. RESULTS: The framework’s content validity index was 0.91. Feedback about the framework related to three themes of penetrability of the framework, usefulness to completion of CPD, and advancement of CPD records for the purpose of revalidation. DISCUSSION: The framework can help professionals better select CPD activities prospectively, and makes assessment of CPD more objective by allowing quantification, which could be helpful for revalidation. We believe the framework could potentially help other health professionals with better management of their CPD irrespective of their field of practice.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.