An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

A model for the identification of high risk occupational groups using RTECS and NOHS data /

Accompanying microfiches (issued in pocket inside back cover) have title: NIOSH risk identification model.

Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor induced angio-oedema: a review of the pathophysiology and risk factors.

Angio-oedema (AE) is a known adverse effect of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACE-I) therapy. Over the past several decades, evidence of failure to diagnose this important and potentially fatal reaction is commonly found in the literature. Because this reaction is often seen first in the primary care setting, a review was undertaken to analyse and document the keys to both diagnostic criteria as well as to investigate potential risk factors for ACE-I AE occurrence. A general review of published literature was conducted through Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database, targeting ACE-I-related AE pathomechanism, diagnosis, epidemiology, risk factors, and clinical decision making and treatment. The incidence and severity of AE appears to be on the rise and there is evidence of considerable delay in diagnosis contributing to significant morbidity and mortality for patients. The mechanism of AE due to ACE-I drugs is not fully understood, but some genomic and metabolomic information has been correlated. Additional epidemiologic data and clinical treatment outcome predictors have been evaluated, creating a basis for future work on the development of clinical prediction tools to aid in risk identification and diagnostic differentiation. Accurate recognition of AE by the primary care provider is essential to limit the rising morbidity associated with ACE-I treatment-related AE. Research findings on the phenotypic indicators relevant to this group of patients as well as basic research into the pathomechanism of AE are available, and should be used in the construction of better risk analysis and clinical diagnostic tools for ACE-I AE.

Identification and Management of Operational Risks in IT Organization of Financial Service Provider

Työn tavoitteena on tunnistaa toiminnallisia riskitekijöitä rahoituspalveluita tarjoavan yrityksen IT-organisaatiossa sekä löytää arkipäiväisiä keinoja hallita näitä riskejä. Työssä riskejä on myös tarkasteltu mahdollisen ulkoistuksen yhteydessä. Fuusiot ovat yleisiä rahoitusalan yrityksissä. Yhteenliittymien tuloksena yritysten IT-arkkitehtuuri voi olla monimutkainen ja kulttuurierot yrityksessä suuria. Synergia- ja mittakaavaetuja saadakseen yritys keskittää toimintojaan ja IT-ratkaisujaan. Riskien tunnistaminen on riskienhallintaprosessin tärkein vaihe. Tässä tutkimuksessa riskit ja riskitekijät tunnistettiin itsearvioinnin avulla kysymyssarjoja hyväksikäyttäen. Monet riskitekijät liittyivät sisäisen valvonnan ja seurannan puutteisiin. Myöhemmin näille riskeille pohdittiin työryhmässä käytännönläheisiä hallintakeinoja. Yritys voi siirtää tai jakaa IT -riskejä ulkoistamalla. Ulkoistaminen voi kuitenkin tuoda mukaan myös uusia riskitekijöitä. Ennen ulkoistamispäätöstä yrityksen sisäisten prosessien ja organisaation on oltava järjestyksessä, jotta sopimuksen kannattavuutta voidaan verrata luotettavasti saman palvelun tuottamiseen sisäisesti.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Performance improvement in mediterranean operations using risk management analysis : Case study of Containerships Group Ltd

Emerging markets of Northern Africa and Turkey provide growth opportunities for logistics service companies in the middle of low growth environment of European Union. The purpose of this research is to explore and analyze the risk factors in container shipping industry and third party logistics (3PL) services. The research empirically examined the risk factors, which are related within the interaction between these two parties in emerging markets of Mediterranean area. The previous studies have provided a valuable insight into the operational risks faced by container shipping industries. However, most of these studies have focused on one or several operational risk factors from a single point of view, and no studies have inclusively examined the possible operational risks faced in the container shipping industry from dual perspective of 3PL provider and its customers. A questionnaire has been deployed to collect related data; and the impacts of the risks were then be assessed and ranked using the method of risk mapping. Respondents were located in Turkey, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. Research presents the most important risk factors identified, and compares them between 3PL provider and its customers. The research also provide some risk mitigation strategies for the key risk factors, and tried to figure out a common risk picture, which guides the managers in both sides to have a better decisions and as a result, improve the performance of the container shipping operations. Challenge during project execution time was that customers identified vast amount of more risks than what was the case with logistics service operator.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

Learning from risks: A tool for post-project risk assessment

Risk management (RM) comprises of risk identification, risk analysis, response planning, monitoring and action planning tasks that are carried out throughout the life cycle of a project in order to ensure that project objectives are met. Although the methodological aspects of RM are well-defined, the philosophical background is rather vague. In this paper, a learning-based approach is proposed. In order to implement this approach in practice, a tool has been developed to facilitate construction of a lessons learned database that contains risk-related information and risk assessment throughout the life cycle of a project. The tool is tested on a real construction project. The case study findings demonstrate that it can be used for storing as well as updating risk-related information and finally, carrying out a post-project appraisal. The major weaknesses of the tool are identified as, subjectivity of the risk rating process and unwillingness of people to enter information about reasons of failure.

The PRO-AGE study: an international randomised controlled study of health risk appraisal for older persons based in general practice

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the study protocol, the recruitment, and base-line data for evaluating the success of randomisation of the PRO-AGE (PRevention in Older people-Assessment in GEneralists' practices) project. METHODS/DESIGN: A group of general practitioners (GPs) in London (U.K.), Hamburg (Germany) and Solothurn (Switzerland) were trained in risk identification, health promotion, and prevention in older people. Their non-disabled older patients were invited to participate in a randomised controlled study. Participants allocated to the intervention group were offered the Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument with a site-specific method for reinforcement (London: physician reminders in electronic medical record; Hamburg: one group session or two preventive home visits; Solothurn: six-monthly preventive home visits over a two-year period). Participants allocated to the control group received usual care. At each site, an additional group of GPs did not receive the training, and their eligible patients were invited to participate in a concurrent comparison group. Primary outcomes are self-reported health behaviour and preventative care use at one-year follow-up. In Solothurn, an additional follow-up was conducted at two years. The number of older persons agreeing to participate (% of eligible persons) in the randomised controlled study was 2503 (66.0%) in London, 2580 (53.6%) in Hamburg, and 2284 (67.5%) in Solothurn. Base-line findings confirm that randomisation of participants was successful, with comparable characteristics between intervention and control groups. The number of persons (% of eligible) enrolled in the concurrent comparison group was 636 (48.8%) in London, 746 (35.7%) in Hamburg, and 1171 (63.0%) in Solothurn. DISCUSSION: PRO-AGE is the first large-scale randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe. Its results will inform about the effects of implementing HRA-O with different methods of reinforcement.

Multi-party risk management helps manage cement plant construction in Thailand

Several parties (stakeholders) are involved in a construction project. The conventional Risk Management Process (RMP) manages risks from a single party perspective, which does not give adequate consideration to the needs of others. The objective of multi-party risk management is to assist decision-makers in managing risk systematically and most efficiently in a multi-party environment. Multi-party Risk Management Processes (MRMP) consist of risk identification, structuring, analysis and developing responses from all party perspectives. The MRMP has been applied to a cement plant construction project in Thailand to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Pre-Disaster Risk Management in Post-Earthquake (1999) Turkey

This paper assesses the status of pre-disaster risk management in the case of Turkey. By focusing on the period following the catastrophic August 17, 1999 earthquake, the study benefits from USAID’s Disaster Risk Management Benchmarking Tool (DRMBT). In line with the benchmarking tool, the paper covers key developments in the four components of pre-disaster risk management, namely: risk identification, risk mitigation, risk transfer and disaster preparedness. In the end, it will present three major conclusions: (i) Although post-1999 Turkey has made some important progress in the pre-disaster phase of DRM, particularly with the enactment of obligatory earthquake insurance and tightened standards for building construction, the country is far away from substantial levels of success in DRM. (ii) In recent years, local governments have had been given more authority in the realm of DRM, however, Turkey’s approach to DRM is still predominantly centralized at the expense of successful DRM practices at the local level. (iii) While the devastating 1999 earthquake has resulted in advances in the pre-disaster components of DRM; progress has been mostly in the realm of earthquakes. Turkey’s other major disasters (landslides, floods, wild fires i.e.) also require similar attention by local and central authorities.

Genetic Polymorphisms of Matrix Metalloproteinases: Susceptibility and Prognostic Implications for Prostate Cancer

Purpose: Prostate cancer is the most common tumor in males in Brazil. Single nucleotide polymorphisms have been demonstrated to exist in the promoter regions of matrix metalloproteinase genes and they are associated with the development and progression of some cancers. We investigated the correlation between MMP1, 2, 7 and 9 polymorphisms with susceptibility to prostate cancer, and classic prognostic parameters of prostate cancer. Materials and Methods: Genomic DNA was extracted using conventional protocols. The DNA sequence containing the polymorphic site was amplified by realtime polymerase chain reaction using TaqMan (R) fluorescent probes. Results: For the MMP1 gene the polymorphic allele was more common in the control group than in the prostate cancer group (p <0.001). For the MMP9 gene the incidence of the polymorphic homozygote genotype was higher in the prostate cancer group (p <0.001). For higher stage tumors (pT3) a polymorphic allele in the MMP2 gene was more common (p = 0.026). When considering Gleason score, the polymorphic homozygote genotype of MMP9 was more common in Gleason 6 or less tumors (p = 0.003), while a polymorphic allele in the MMP2 gene was more common in Gleason 7 or greater tumors (p = 0.042). Conclusions: MMP1 and MMP2 may protect against prostate cancer development and MMP9 may be related to higher risk. In contrast, MMP9 polymorphism was associated with a lower Gleason score and MMP2 polymorphism was associated with nonorgan confined disease.

Contributo para a validação de uma estratégia de diagnóstico do risco de LMELT: empresas de triagem de resíduos orgânicos

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no Trabalho.