Risco operacional: uma aplicação do modelo de distribuição de perdas agregadas para risco de produção em uma empresa não financeira

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar por meio de um exemplo prático a quantificação de Risco Operacional, utilizando um Modelo de Distribuição de Perdas Agregadas - LDA, Loss Distribution Approach - aplicado a riscos em instituições não financeiras. A idéia é mostrar como um método simples pode ser aplicado para realizar a gestão do risco operacional com foco em redução de perdas potenciais. O estudo faz uma breve análise sobre algumas técnicas que viabilizam a utilização de dados históricos e de julgamento de especialistas, e em seguida aprofunda-se em um método em que os especialistas inferem diretamente nos parâmetros das distribuições de freqüência e de severidade.

Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de- açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Rentabilidade e risco da produção de milho safrinha geneticamente modificado na região de Guaíra-SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Rentabilidade e Risco da Produção de Milho Safrinha Geneticamente Modificado e Convencional na Região de Guaíra/sp

The objective of this study was to dimension the economic risks and returns on adopters of genetically modified (GM) maize in one of the major corn producing regions of São Paulo state. We performed analysis of variation of the quantities and prices of insecticides used, productivity gains, and variation in the price differentials between GM maize and conventional hybrids seeds, according to account to the maize prices oscillation during the period studied. The net benefits methodology was used, in other words, the economic gains minus the costs of GM technology under risk conditions were calculated. The net benefits was calculated as a function of four critical variables: 1) GM maize productivity; 2) costs of pest control; 3) maize price; 4) GM seeds cost. The probability distribution functions of these critical variables were estimated and included in the net benefit equation. Using the Monte Carlo simulation methodology, the following indicator sets were estimated: central tendency measurements, variability in net benefits (total benefits minus total costs), sensitivity analysis of the net benefits in relation to the critical variables, and finally, a map of the risk to GM technology adopters. These indicators allow one to design economic scenarios associated with their probability of occurring. The results showed probability of 85% to positive gains to the farmers who adopted the transgenic maize seed cultivation. The variable with the greatest impact on the farmers' income was the reduction in productivity loss, that means, as higher is the maize productivity, higher will be the net income. The average gain was US$ 137,41 (R$ 2.45/US$)per hectare with the adoption of transgenic maize seed when compared to conventional maize seed.

Análise de rentabilidade e risco na produção de cana-de-açúcar na região norte do Estado de São Paulo sob dois tipos de arranjos contratuais

This study was to evaluate the profitability of land use for production of sugar cane in the São Paulo North Region, under risk conditions, from two views: the owner operator and the cash rental operator. The owner operators have higher levels of profitability comparing to cash rental owners, but with higher levels of risk. The land owners aversive to risk fits better to rent system, since the minimum return is greater than the profitability of owners operators. Moreover, if the producer is willing to production risk, the income may reach approximately 3 times that one obtained by the tenants.

Sistemas de produção de mudas cítricas em viveiros protegidos no Estado de São Paulo

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Horticultura) - FCA

Fatores de risco para a progressão da gamapatia monoclonal de significado indeterminado para mieloma múltiplo

Trabalho Final do Curso de Mestrado Integrado em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014

Synthesis of new Aβ-ligands useful in diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer’s disease is a chronic progressive neurodegenerative disease and is the most common form of dementia (estimated 50−60% of all cases), associated with loss of memory (in particular episodic memory), cognitive decline, and behavioural and physical disability, ultimately leading to death. Alzheimer’s disease is a complex disease, mostly occurring sporadically with no apparent inheritance and being the age the main risk factor. The production and accumulation of amyloid-beta peptide in the central nervous system is a key event in the development of Alzheimer’s disease. This project is devoted to the synthesis of amyloid-beta ligands, fluorophores and blood brain barrier-transporters for diagnosis and therapy of Alzheimer’s disease. Different amyloid-beta ligands will be synthesized and their ability to interact with amyloid-beta plaques will be studied with nuclear magnetic resonance techniques and a process of lead optimization will be performed. Many natural and synthetic compounds able to interact as amyloid-beta ligands have been identified. Among them, a set of small molecules in which aromatic moieties seem to play a key role to inhibit amyloid-beta aggregation, in particular heteroaromatic polycyclic compounds such as tetracyclines. Nevertheless tetracyclines suffer from chemical instability, low water solubility and possess, in this contest, undesired anti-bacterial activity. In order to overcome these limitations, one of our goals is to synthesize tetracyclines analogues bearing a polycyclic structure with improved chemical stability and water solubility, possibly lacking antibacterial activity but conserving the ability to interact with amyloid-beta peptides. Known tetracyclines have in common a fourth cycle without an aromatic character and with different functionalisations. We aim to synthesize derivatives in which this cycle is represented by a sugar moiety, thus bearing different derivatisable positions or create derivatives in which we will increase or decrease the number of fused rings. In order to generate a potential drug-tool candidate, these molecules should also possess the correct chemical-physical characteristics. The glycidic moiety, not being directly involved in the binding, it assures further possible derivatizations, such as conjugation to others molecular entities (nanoparticles, polymeric supports, etc.), and functionalization with chemical groups able to modulate the hydro/lipophilicity. In order to be useful such compounds should perform their action within the brain, therefore they have to be able to cross the blood brain barrier, and to be somehow detected for diagnostic purposes.

The risk-incentive trade-off in competitive search

Usando a abordagem de competitive search, modelo um mercado de trabalho com trabalhadores heterogêneos no qual há um problema de risco moral na relação entre firmas e trabalhadores. Nesse contexto, consigo prever como contratos reagem a mudanças nos parâmetros do mercado (em particular, o risco de produção), assim como a variação da probabilidade dos trabalhadores serem contratados. Minha contribuição principal é ver que, no nível individual, existe uma relação negativa entre risco e incentivos, mas efeitos de equilíbrio geral implicam que essa relação pode ser positiva no nível agregado. Esse resultado ajuda a esclarecer resultados empíricos contraditórios sobre a relação entre risco e incentivos.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

Utilização de técnica de análise de risco numa unidade de produção de proteínas recombinantes: estudo de caso da ferramenta de análise de risco - HAZOP

Em novembro de 2005, com o guia de Gestão de Riscos à Qualidade (Q9) - a Conferência Internacional de Harmonização (ICH), em conjunto com as agências regulatórias dos Estados Unidos, Japão e Europa, passaram a recomendar que seja aplicado o gerenciamento de riscos para regulação da indústria farmacêutica. Em concordância, a Agência Nacional de Vigilância Sanitária (ANVISA) publicou a Resolução de Diretoria Colegiada - RDC 17/2010 que dispõe sobre as Boas Práticas de Fabricação de Medicamentos que possibilita a comercialização de produtos farmacêuticos. Esta resolução preconiza que a validação de um processo produtivo seja efetuada com base em uma análise de risco. Seguindo as orientações da RDC este trabalho se propôs a aplicar a ferramenta de análise de risco de Estudos de Perigos e Operabilidade HAZOP num sistema de biorreação bacteriana para produção de proteínas recombinantes instalado no Instituto de Tecnologia em Imunobiológicos Bio-Manguinhos/Fiocruz. Este sistema é formado por fermentadores de 100 (FE01) e 600 (FE02) litros, um tanque de colheita de 600 litros (HT01) e um tanque de preparo de meios de cultura de 600 litros (MT01). Através da aplicação desta ferramenta de análise de riscos foi possível classificar os riscos dos sistemas identificando os nós, palavras-guia primárias (parâmetros) e secundárias (desvios), assim como a severidade e frequência dos eventos. Foram identificados 82 riscos associados aos fermentadores FE01 e FE02, sendo 8,5% riscos insignificantes, 65,9% riscos aceitáveis e 25,6% riscos não desejáveis. No tanque de colheita HT01 foram identificados 55 riscos, dos quais 14,5% são insignificantes, 67,3% são aceitáveis e 18,2% não desejáveis. Para o tanque de preparo de meios MT01 foram identificados 66 riscos que estão divididos em 9% de riscos insignificantes, 69,7% de riscos aceitáveis e 21,3% de riscos não desejáveis. Foi percebido que não houve riscos catastróficos que pudessem comprometer os equipamentos fabricados, porém somente com utilização dos mesmos na rotina de produção e o ciclo de melhoria continua dos equipamentos será possível validar este estudo prospectivo

Análise da relação financiamento-produção e do efeito risco-retorno para produtos agrícolas

A presente dissertação aborda dois aspectos básicos, inerentes a toda atividade econômica, relativos as atividades atividade dos produtores agrícolas: a importância do crédito rural como fonte de recursos para o financiamento da produção; a atitude do produtor agrícola face ao risco dessa atividade econômica.