Are fertility estimates from retrospective data biased by maternal mortality?: an assessment based on parametric models of family size distribution

Includes bibliography

Protective and risk factors in amateur equestrians and description of injury patterns: A retrospective data analysis and a case - control survey

Background In Switzerland there are about 150,000 equestrians. Horse related injuries, including head and spinal injuries, are frequently treated at our level I trauma centre. Objectives To analyse injury patterns, protective factors, and risk factors related to horse riding, and to define groups of safer riders and those at greater risk Methods We present a retrospective and a case-control survey at conducted a tertiary trauma centre in Bern, Switzerland. Injured equestrians from July 2000 - June 2006 were retrospectively classified by injury pattern and neurological symptoms. Injured equestrians from July-December 2008 were prospectively collected using a questionnaire with 17 variables. The same questionnaire was applied in non-injured controls. Multiple logistic regression was performed, and combined risk factors were calculated using inference trees. Results Retrospective survey A total of 528 injuries occured in 365 patients. The injury pattern revealed as follows: extremities (32%: upper 17%, lower 15%), head (24%), spine (14%), thorax (9%), face (9%), pelvis (7%) and abdomen (2%). Two injuries were fatal. One case resulted in quadriplegia, one in paraplegia. Case-control survey 61 patients and 102 controls (patients: 72% female, 28% male; controls: 63% female, 37% male) were included. Falls were most frequent (65%), followed by horse kicks (19%) and horse bites (2%). Variables statistically significant for the controls were: Older age (p = 0.015), male gender (p = 0.04) and holding a diploma in horse riding (p = 0.004). Inference trees revealed typical groups less and more likely to suffer injury. Conclusions Experience with riding and having passed a diploma in horse riding seem to be protective factors. Educational levels and injury risk should be graded within an educational level-injury risk index.

Participation and performance trends in 6-hour ultra-marathoners – a retrospective data analysis of worldwide participation from 1991-2010

Participation trends in 6-hour ultra-marathons held word-wide were investigated to gain basic demographic data on 6-hour ultra-marathoners and where these races took place. Participation trends and the association between nationality and race performance were investigated in all 6-hour races held worldwide between 1991 and 2010. Participation increased linearly in both women and men across years. The annual number of finishes was significantly higher in men than in women (P=0.013). The male-to-female ratio remained stable at ~4 since 1991. Runners in age group 45-49 years showed the largest increase in participation for both men (800 participants in 18 years) and women (208 participants in 16 years). Europe attracted most of the runners from other continents (166 runners), more than all other continents combined (55 runners). European runners also showed the best top ten performances (73±3 km for women and 77±11 km for men), while African (with 65±9 km for men) and South American (54±4 km for women and 65±2 km for men) runners showed the weakest. To summarize, participation in 6-hour ultra-marathons increased across years. Most of the development took place in Europe and in athletes in the age group 45-49 years. Europe also attracted the most diverse field of athletes with runners from all other continents. European runners accounted for the most runners and achieved the best top ten performances.

Using secondary knowledge to support decision tree classification of retrospective clinical data

Retrospective clinical data presents many challenges for data mining and machine learning. The transcription of patient records from paper charts and subsequent manipulation of data often results in high volumes of noise as well as a loss of other important information. In addition, such datasets often fail to represent expert medical knowledge and reasoning in any explicit manner. In this research we describe applying data mining methods to retrospective clinical data to build a prediction model for asthma exacerbation severity for pediatric patients in the emergency department. Difficulties in building such a model forced us to investigate alternative strategies for analyzing and processing retrospective data. This paper describes this process together with an approach to mining retrospective clinical data by incorporating formalized external expert knowledge (secondary knowledge sources) into the classification task. This knowledge is used to partition the data into a number of coherent sets, where each set is explicitly described in terms of the secondary knowledge source. Instances from each set are then classified in a manner appropriate for the characteristics of the particular set. We present our methodology and outline a set of experiential results that demonstrate some advantages and some limitations of our approach. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Funding grant proposals for scientific research : retrospective analysis of scores by members of grant review panel

Objectives: To quantify randomness and cost when choosing health and medical research projects for funding. Design: Analysis of retrospective data from grant review panels. Setting: The National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia. Participants/Data: All panel members’ scores for grant proposals submitted in 2009. Main outcome measure: The proportion of grant proposals that were always, sometimes and never funded after accounting for random variability arising from variation in panel members’ scores; the cost-effectiveness of different size assessment panels. Results: 59% of 620 funded grants were sometimes not funded when random variability was accounted for. Only 9% of grant proposals were always funded, 61% were never funded and 29% were sometimes funded. The extra cost per grant effectively funded from the most effective system was $18,541. Conclusions: Allocating funding for scientific research in health and medicine is costly and somewhat random. There are many useful research questions to be addressed that could improve current processes.

Fasting increases serum bilirubin levels in clinically normal, healthy males but not females : a retrospective study from phase I clinical trial participants

Aim: To examine if fasting affects serum bilirubin levels in clinical healthy males and females. Methods: We utilised retrospective data from phase 1 clinical trials where blood was collected in either a fed or fasting state at screening and pre-dosing time points and analysed for total bilirubin levels as per standard clinical procedures. Participants were clinically healthy males (n = 105) or females (n = 30) aged 18 to 48 inclusive who participated in a phase 1 clinical trial in 2012 or 2013. Results: We found a statistically significant increase in total serum bilirubin levels in fasting males as compared to non-fasting males. The fasting time correlated positively with increased bilirubin levels. The age of the healthy males did not correlate with their fasting bilirubin level. We found no correlation between fasting and bilirubin levels in clinically normal females. Conclusions: The recruitment and screening of volunteers for a clinical trial is a time-consuming and expensive process. This study clearly demonstrates that testing for serum bilirubin should be conducted on non-fasting male subjects. If fasting is required, then participants should not be excluded from a trial based on an elevated serum bilirubin that is deemed non-clinically significant.

Back to normal: A retrospective, cross-sectional study of the multi-factorial determinants of normal birth in Queensland, Australia

Background Currently, care providers and policy-makers internationally are working to promote normal birth. In Australia, such initiatives are being implemented without any evidence of the prevalence or determinants of normal birth as a multidimensional construct. This study aimed to better understand the determinants of normal birth (defined as without induction of labour, epidural/spinal/general anaesthesia, forceps/vacuum, caesarean birth, or episiotomy) using secondary analyses of data from a population survey of women in Queensland, Australia. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a survey approximately three months after birth. Women (n=772) provided retrospective data on their pregnancy, labour and birth preferences and experiences, socio-demographic characteristics, and reproductive history. A series of logistic regressions were conducted to determine factors associated with having labour, having a vaginal birth, and having a normal birth. Findings Overall, 81.9% of women had labour, 66.4% had a vaginal birth, and 29.6% had a normal birth. After adjusting for other significant factors, women had significantly higher odds of having labour if they birthed in a public hospital and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had labour, 80.8% had a vaginal birth. Women who had labour had significantly higher odds of having a vaginal birth if they attended antenatal classes, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, felt able to ‘take their time’ in labour, and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had a vaginal birth, 44.7% had a normal birth. Women who had a vaginal birth had significantly higher odds of having a normal birth if they birthed in a public hospital, birthed outside regular business hours, had mobility in labour, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, and were non-supine during birth. Conclusions These findings provide a strong foundation on which to base resources aimed at increasing informed decision-making for maternity care consumers, providers, and policy-makers alike. Research to evaluate the impact of modifying key clinical practices (e.g., supporting women׳s mobility during labour, facilitating non-supine positioning during birth) on the likelihood of a normal birth is an important next step.

Species-specific and Indication-based Use of Antimicrobials in Dogs, Cats, Cattle and Horses in Finland : Data collected using three different methods

Increasing antimicrobial resistance in bacteria has led to the need for better understanding of antimicrobial usage patterns. In 1999, the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) recommended that an international ad hoc group should be established to address human and animal health risks related to antimicrobial resistance and the contribution of antimicrobial usage in veterinary medicine. In European countries the need for continuous recording of the usage of veterinary antimicrobials as well as for animal species-specific and indication-based data on usage has been acknowledged. Finland has been among the first countries to develop prudent use guidelines in veterinary medicine, as the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry issued the first animal species-specific indication-based recommendations for antimicrobial use in animals in 1996. These guidelines have been revised in 2003 and 2009. However, surveillance on the species-specific use of antimicrobials in animals has not been performed in Finland. This thesis provides animal species-specific information on indication-based antimicrobial usage. Different methods for data collection have been utilized. Information on antimicrobial usage in animals has been gathered in four studies (studies A-D). Material from studies A, B and C have been used in an overlapping manner in the original publications I-IV. Study A (original publications I & IV) presents a retrospective cross-sectional survey on prescriptions for small animals at the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of the University of Helsinki. Prescriptions for antimicrobial agents (n = 2281) were collected and usage patterns, such as the indication and length of treatment, were reviewed. Most of the prescriptions were for dogs (78%), and primarily for the treatment of skin and ear infections most of which were treated with cephalexin for a median period of 14 days. Prescriptions for cats (18%) were most often for the treatment of urinary tract infections with amoxicillin for a median length of 10 days. Study B (original publication II) was a retrospective cross-sectional survey where prescriptions for animals were collected from 17 University Pharmacies nationwide. Antimicrobial prescriptions (n = 1038) for mainly dogs (65%) and cats (19%) were investigated. In this study, cephalexin and amoxicillin were also the most frequently used drugs for dogs and cats, respectively. In study C (original publications III & IV), the indication-based usage of antimicrobials of practicing veterinarians was analyzed by using a prospective questionnaire. Randomly selected practicing veterinarians in Finland (n = 262) recorded all their antimicrobial usage during a 7-day study period. Cattle (46%) with mastitis were the most common patients receiving antimicrobial treatment, generally intramuscular penicillin G or intramammary treatment with ampicillin and cloxacillin. The median length of treatment was four days, regardless of the route of administration. Antimicrobial use in horses was evaluated in study D, the results of which are previously unpublished. Firstly, data collected with the prospective questionnaire from the practicing veterinarians showed that horses (n = 89) were frequently treated for skin or wound infections by using penicillin G or trimethoprim-sulfadiazine. The mean duration of treatment was five to seven days. Secondly, according to retrospective data collected from patient records, horses (n = 74) that underwent colic surgery at the Veterinary Teaching Hospital of the University of Helsinki were generally treated according to national and hospital recommendations; penicillin G and gentamicin was administered preoperatively and treatment was continued for a median of three days postoperatively. In conclusion, Finnish veterinarians followed well the national prudent use guidelines. Narrow-spectrum antimicrobials were preferred and, for instance, fluoroquinolones were used sparingly. Prescription studies seemed to give good information on antimicrobials usage, especially when combined with complementary information from patient records. A prospective questionnaire study provided a fair amount of valuable data on several animal species. Electronic surveys are worthwhile exploiting in the future.

How common are common mental disorders? Evidence that lifetime prevalence rates are doubled by prospective versus retrospective ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.

Retrospective assesment of the levonorgestrel intrauterine device to treat complex atypical hyperplasia and early endometrioid endometrial cancer

Objective: The primary objective of this project was to describe the efficacy of the Levonorgestrel Intrauterine Device (LIUD) for treatment of Complex Endometrial Cancer (CAH) and Grade 1 Endometrial Cancer (G1EEC) in terms of rate of Complete Response (CR) and Partial Response (PR) after 6 months of therapy. Finally, we assessed if any clinical or pathologic features were associated with response to the LIUD. ^ Methods: This study was a retrospective case series designed to report the response rate of patients with CAH or G1EEC treated with LIUD therapy. In addition, this study has a laboratory component to assess molecular predictors of response to LIUD therapy. Retrospective data already collected from patients diagnosed with CAH or EEC grade 1 and treated with LIUD therapy at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) were used for this study. Patients from all ethnic and race groups were included. A Complete Response (CR) was defined in patients diagnosed with CAH if pathologic report at 6 months demonstrated either no evidence of hyperplasia or no atypia in the setting of simple or complex hyperplasia. Partial Response (PR) was recorded if disease downgraded to only CAH from G1EEC. No Response (NR) was recorded if pathologic report demonstrates no change (Stable Disease, SD) or progression to cancer (Progressive Disease, PD). We calculated the proportion of patients with complete response to LIUD therapy with 95% confidence interval. We compared the response rates (CR/PR vs NR) by obesity status (Obese if BMI > 40 kg/m2 vs non-obese if BMI <= 40 kg/m2) as well as other clinical and pathologic factors, such as age, uterine size (median size), and presence of exogenous progesterone effect. ^ Results: There were 39 patients diagnosed with either CAH or G1EEC treated with the LIUD. Of 39 patients, 12 did not have pathological results of biopsy at 6months time period. Of 27 evaluable patients, 17 were diagnosed with CAH and 10 with G1EEC. Overall response rate (RR) was 78% (95% CI = 62-94%) at 6 months, 18 patients had CR (4 in G1EEC; 14 in CAH), 3 patients had PR (3 in G1EEC), 3 had SD (1 in CAH; 2 in G1EEC), 3 had PD (2 in CAH; 1 in G1EEC). After histology stratification, RR at 6 months was 82.35% (14/17; 95%CI = 67.4-97.3%) in CAH and 70% (7/10; 95% CI = 41-98.4%) in G1EEC. ^ There was no difference in response (R) and no response (NR) based on BMI (p=0.56). He observed a trend showing association between age with response (p=0.1). There was no association between uterine size and response to therapy (p=0.17). We recorded strong association between exogenous progesterone effect and response. ^ Conclusion: LIUD therapy for the treatment of CAH and G1EEC may be effective and safe. Presence of exogenous progesterone effect may predict the response to LIUD therapy at earlier time points. There is need of further studies with larger sample size to explore the relationship of response with other clinical and pathologic factors^

Seeking Relationships in Big Data: A Bayesian Perspective

The real purpose of collecting big data is to identify causality in the hope that this will facilitate credible predictivity . But the search for causality can trap one into infinite regress, and thus one takes refuge in seeking associations between variables in data sets. Regrettably, the mere knowledge of associations does not enable predictivity. Associations need to be embedded within the framework of probability calculus to make coherent predictions. This is so because associations are a feature of probability models, and hence they do not exist outside the framework of a model. Measures of association, like correlation, regression, and mutual information merely refute a preconceived model. Estimated measures of associations do not lead to a probability model; a model is the product of pure thought. This paper discusses these and other fundamentals that are germane to seeking associations in particular, and machine learning in general. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.1.2, H.2.4., G.3.

Tear film surface quality with soft contact lenses using dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy

Objectives. To evaluate the performance of the dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy technique in the assessment of tear film surface quality with and without the presence of soft contact lenses on eye. Methods. Retrospective data from a tear film study using basic high-speed videokeratoscopy, captured at 25 frames per second, (Kopf et al., 2008, J Optom) were used. Eleven subjects had tear film analysis conducted in the morning, midday and evening on the first and seventh day of one week of no lens wear. Five of the eleven subjects then completed an extra week of hydrogel lens wear followed by a week of silicone hydrogel lens wear. Analysis was performed on a 6 second period of the inter-blink recording. The dynamic-area high-speed videokeratoscopy technique uses the maximum available area of Placido ring pattern reflected from the tear interface and eliminates regions of disturbance due to shadows from the eyelashes. A value of tear film surface quality was derived using image rocessing techniques, based on the quality of the reflected ring pattern orientation. Results. The group mean tear film surface quality and the standard deviations for each of the conditions (bare eye, hydrogel lens, and silicone hydrogel lens) showed a much lower coefficient of variation than previous methods (average reduction of about 92%). Bare eye measurements from the right and left eyes of eleven individuals showed high correlation values (Pearson’s correlation r = 0.73, p < 0.05). Repeated measures ANOVA across the 6 second period of measurement in the normal inter-blink period for the bare eye condition showed no statistically significant changes. However, across the 6 second inter-blink period with both contact lenses, statistically significant changes were observed (p < 0.001) for both types of contact lens material. Overall, wearing hydrogel and silicone hydrogel lenses caused the tear film surface quality to worsen compared with the bare eye condition (repeated measures ANOVA, p < 0.0001 for both hydrogel and silicone hydrogel). Conclusions. The results suggest that the dynamic-area method of high-speed videokeratoscopy was able to distinguish and quantify the subtle, but systematic worsening of tear film surface quality in the inter-blink interval in contact lens wear. It was also able to clearly show a difference between bare eye and contact lens wearing conditions.

Nascent entrepreneurship and the developing individual : early entrepreneurial competence in adolescence and venture creation success during the career

What predicts a person's venture creation success over the course of the career, such as making progress in the venture creation process and multiple successful venture creations? Applying a life span approach of human development, this study examined the effect of early entrepreneurial competence in adolescence, which was gathered retrospectively by means of the Life History Calendar method. Human and social capitals during the founding process were investigated as mediators between adolescent competence and performance. Findings were derived from regression analyses on the basis of prospective and retrospective data from two independent samples (N = 88 nascent founders; N = 148 founders). We found that early entrepreneurial competence in adolescence had a positive effect on making progress in the venture creation process. Nascent founders' current human and social capital also had a direct effect, but it did not mediate the effect of early competences. Finally, the data revealed that early entrepreneurial competence in adolescence positively predicted habitual entrepreneurship (multiple successful venture creations) exhibited over a longer period of the individual career (specifically, 18 years). In line with the results from prospective longitudinal studies on early precursors of entrepreneurship, our findings underscore the long neglected importance of adolescent development in the explanation of entrepreneurial performance during the subsequent working life.

The Working After Cancer Study (WACS): a population-based study of middle-aged workers diagnosed with colorectal cancer and their return to work experiences

Background The number of middle-aged working individuals being diagnosed with cancer is increasing and so too will disruptions to their employment. The aim of the Working After Cancer Study is to examine the changes to work participation in the 12 months following a diagnosis of primary colorectal cancer. The study will identify barriers to work resumption, describe limitations on workforce participation, and evaluate the influence of these factors on health-related quality of life. Methods/Design An observational population-based study has been designed involving 260 adults newly-diagnosed with colorectal cancer between January 2010 and September 2011 and who were in paid employment at the time they were diagnosed. These cancer cases will be compared to a nationally representative comparison group of 520 adults with no history of cancer from the general population. Eligible cases will have a histologically confirmed diagnosis of colorectal cancer and will be identified through the Queensland Cancer Registry. Data on the comparison group will be drawn from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Data collection for the cancer group will occur at 6 and 12 months after diagnosis, with work questions also asked about the time of diagnosis, while retrospective data on the comparison group will be come from HILDA Waves 2009 and 2010. Using validated instruments administered via telephone and postal surveys, data will be collected on socio-demographic factors, work status and circumstances, and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for both groups while the cases will have additional data collected on cancer treatment and symptoms, work productivity and cancer-related HRQoL. Primary outcomes include change in work participation at 12 months, time to work re-entry, work limitations and change in HRQoL status. Discussion This study will address the reasons for work cessation after cancer, the mechanisms people use to remain working and existing workplace support structures and the implications for individuals, families and workplaces. It may also provide key information for governments on productivity losses.

Going public : do risk and choice explain differences in caesarean birth rates between public and private places of birth in Australia?

Background: Women who birth in private facilities in Australia are more likely to have a caesarean birth than women who birth in public facilities and these differences remain after accounting for sector differences in the demographic and health risk profiles of women. However, the extent to which women’s preferences and/or freedom to choose their mode of birth further account for differences in the likelihood of caesarean birth between the sectors remains untested. Method: Women who birthed in Queensland, Australia during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a self-report survey approximately three months after birth. Seven hundred and fifty-seven women provided cross-sectional retrospective data on where they birthed (public or private facility), mode of birth (vaginal or caesarean) and risk factors, along with their preferences and freedom to choose their mode of birth. A hierarchical logistic regression was conducted to determine the extent to which maternal risk and freedom to choose one’s mode of birth explain sector differences in the likelihood of having a caesarean birth. Findings: While there was no sector difference in women’s preference for mode of birth, women who birthed in private facilities had higher odds of feeling able to choose either a vaginal or caesarean birth, and feeling able to choose only a caesarean birth. Women had higher odds of having caesarean birth if they birthed in private facilities, even after accounting for significant risk factors such as age, body mass index, previous caesarean and use of assisted reproductive technology. However, there was no association between place of birth and odds of having a caesarean birth after also accounting for freedom to choose one’s mode of birth. Conclusions: These findings call into question suggestions that the higher caesarean birth rate in the private sector in Australia is attributable to increased levels of obstetric risk among women birthing in the private sector or maternal preferences alone. Instead, the determinants of sector differences in the likelihood of caesarean births are complex and are linked to differences in the perceived choices for mode of birth between women birthing in the private and public systems.