Eleições, pesquisas e estratégias de marketing: a campanha eleitoral de Micarla de Sousa em Natal (2008)

From the importance that the political science and the social sciences began to give the electoral programs on TV, were examined in that work academic the effects of research in electoral marketing strategies in Gratuitous Timetable of the Electoral Publicity of the marketing year the candidate Micarla de Sousa (PV) in 2008 for the prefecture of Natal. To analyze the marketing strategies of electoral candidate Micarla de Sousa were used three sources of data: the HGPE on the first part, The interview with the coordinator's marketing campaign of Micarla de Sousa, José Ivan and the quantitative research carried out by the Office IBOPE before and during the period of HGPE. In the analysis of electoral programs, was used the qualitative and quantitative approach, taking as objective to verify whether there was some change in marketing strategy in the candidate Micarla HGPE. So the electoral programs that candidate were transcribed and analyzed and then faced with the results of researches electoral IBOPE carried out in the same period. The interview with the coordinator's marketing campaign the candidate Micarla de Sousa brought relevant information on the construction of public image at the time pre-electoral and electoral. In search of IBOPE, socioeconomic variables were regarded assex, age, education and income. With the collection of this data, there was an intersection of information about the voting intentions of Micarla candidate for mayor of Natal and it was checked how his candidacy has increased or decreased within the surveyed segments and how these oscillations marketing strategies directed at the candidate's HGPE for any specific audience. Also, do not forget that the electoral process is influenced by various factors, because this process is dynamic

A Pan-European District for the European Elections? The Rise and Fall of the Duff Proposal for the Electoral Reform of the European Parliament. Bruges Political Research Papers 44/2015.

The aim of the present article is to understand the dynamics underlying the birth, the development and the eventual failure of the Duff proposal of 2009-2012, an ambitious attempt to change the provisions governing the elections for the European Parliament. In particular, the way agenda-setting on electoral reform is shaped in the European Union will be analysed, trying to understand if the current stalemate on the issue can be explained in light of factors specific to the EU. The report presented by liberal MEP Andrew Duff at the beginning of the seventh legislature called on Member States to gather a Convention, in order to introduce fundamental improvements in the way Members of the European Parliament are elected. Among the envisaged changes, the creation of a pan-European constituency to elect twenty-five Members on transnational lists represented the most controversial issue. After having analysed its main elements, the path of the Duff report from the committee of Constitutional Affairs (AFCO) to the plenary will be analysed. It will be concluded that a sharp contrast exists between the way electoral issues are raised in the AFCO committee and the way the Parliament as a whole deals with them. Moreover, diverging interests between national delegations inside groups seem to play a decisive role in hampering electoral reform. While further research is needed to corroborate the present findings, the analysis of the Duff proposal appears to shed light on the different barriers that ensure electoral reform is taken off the agenda of the Union, and on the relative weight each of them carries.

Elections 2.0 : reflections on the 2010 federal election and the future of Australian electoral law

This article analyses the 2010 federal election and the impact the internet and social media had on electoral law, and what this may mean for electoral law in the future. Four electoral law issues arising out of the 2010 election as a result of the internet are considered, including online enrolment, regulation of online advertising and comment, fundraising and the role of lobby groups, especially when it comes to crowdsourcing court challenges. Finally, the article offers some suggestions as to how the parliament and the courts should respond to these challenges.

The British electoral system 1885-1970

At a time when the electoral system is coming under renewed scrutiny, this article examines the origins and creation of the present system in 1884-5, and its subsequent survival. This is the first such analysis to draw upon Public Record Office and party archives. Whilst showing that the political classes have been quite prepared to consider the merits of alternatives, particularly S.T.V., for Ireland or in colonial settings, they have usually been seen as less appropriate for Westminster. In exploring why that should be the case this article seeks to provide a new explanation for the longevity of the electoral arrangements of 1885.

Electoral opportunism and fiscal policy before and after the EMU

A Masters Thesis, presented as part of the requirements for the award of a Research Masters Degree in Economics from NOVA – School of Business and Economics

El Acto Legislativo 001 de 2003 y el comportamiento electoral de partidos y movimientos políticos, en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes 2002 y 2006. Estudio de caso : Antioquia

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo mostrar los efectos del acto legislativo 01 de 2003, en las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de 2006 en el Departamento de Antioquia. Esto con el fin de mostrar el comportamiento de los partidos y movimientos políticos antes y después de entrar en vigencia la reforma. El objetivo principal de la investigación es identificar y entender la cotidianidad y las prácticas políticas a las que los partidos tradicionales y las nuevas organizaciones estaban acostumbradas después de la constitución de 1991. Estas reglas de juego planteadas por las Constitución Política, cambiaron el panorama político tanto para los partidos tradicionalistas, como para las nuevas organizaciones que querían y reclamaban reconocimiento, participación y poder. Reglas que se transformaron con la reforma política, y específicamente con el Acto legislativo 01 de 2003, cambiando el escenario político y por ende el comportamiento electoral.

Incidencia de las técnicas de investigación cuantitativa en el diseño de estrategias de marketing electoral. Análisis de la campaña para la presidencia del partido verde 2010.

La campana política del Partido Verde para la presidencia en 2010 fue una campaña con muchas particularidades. Este trabajo analiza dicha campaña y resalta las técnicas de investigación cuantitativa y la incidencia de estas en las estrategias de marketing electoral, todo lo anterior bajo el modelo de plan de marketing del profesor Francisco Javier Barranco.

Participación electoral : radiografía teórica y práctica de un fenómeno en Colombia. Caso de estudio : senado 1974-2006

Este texto es una invitación a la reflexión sobre la participación política, específicamente sobre una de sus manifestaciones: la participación electoral. La aproximación a este fenómeno, que cada día es más común como instrumento de legitimación de las democracias, reales y formales, se ha querido hacer tanto a nivel puramente teórico como práctico. En el primero se buscó dilucidar todas las discusiones teórico-conceptuales que se presentan frente al concepto, para poder entenderlo de una mejor manera y, de esta forma, avanzar hacia análisis más coherentes y profundos del mismo. En el segundo se inquirió sobre la necesidad de presentar una comparación entre Colombia y sus pares latinoamericanos (dieciocho países en total) para poner las cifras de participación colombianas en un contexto jurídico y estadístico que permita su real comprensión, y no un análisis somero y equivocado del fenómeno; además se realizó una exploración del comportamiento electoral de los departamentos de Colombia, desde 1974 hasta el año 2006, es decir, un total de nueve eventos electorales para la escogencia del Senado de la República. Todo ello con el fin de profundizar sobre este fenómeno en Colombia.

Senado 2006: impacto de la reforma político-electoral

Los sistemas electorales en sentido estricto, adicional a sus efectos técnicos, tienen efectos colaterales que sólo pueden ser visiblemente detectados después de tres o cuatro elecciones, lo que hace que el tiempo razonable de observación para el análisis y evaluación de los mismos no debe ser inferior a una década. Motivo por el cual el escenario político-electoral colombiano de los últimos tiempos se constituye en un laboratorio académico sin precedentes en nuestra historia. Más aún cuando a través del Acto Legislativo 01 de 2003 el Congreso logra aprobar su reforma política, en medio de un ambiente de tensiones y contrapesos entre el Legislativo y Ejecutivo, que busca cada uno a su manera, reformar estructuralmente la Constitución Política de Colombia, particularmente, en relación con la forma de obtener, conservar y ejercer el poder. Ante esta coyuntura de implementación y adaptación de la reforma, en el ámbito netamente electoral, el Observatorio de Procesos Electorales (OPE) ha emprendido la tarea de hacer seguimiento y sistematización de la información pertinente que le permita analizar los sistemas electorales –en sus efectos técnicos–, e ir observando a largo plazo sus efectos colaterales, así como su impacto real en la representación política, en la dinámica del sistema político y en el grado de gobernabilidad. En este cuadernillo se contextualizan los antecedentes de la elección senatorial y se presentan los resultados preliminares del seguimiento y sistematización de la información relacionada con el impacto inmediato de la reforma en la elección de 2006.

Iglesias y partidos políticos: la estrategia electoral del MIRA en las elecciones al Senado del 2006 y el 2010 en Bogotá

La relación entre la política y la religión ha sido un fenómeno constante en la historia de Colombia, pero gracias a la pluralización religiosa manifestada en la Constitución Política de 1991 se abrió el panorama político para la participación política de congregaciones confesionales, diferentes a la católica. En este contexto de participación pluralista surgió la presente investigación que tiene como propósito la caracterización de la relación entre la Iglesia de Dios Ministerial de Jesucristo Internacional y el Movimiento Político MIRA a partir de la eficiencia electoral obtenida en las elecciones al Senado del 2006 y el 2010 en Bogotá. Dando como resultado una indiscutible relación entre la localización de una sede de la IDMJI y la concentración electoral por el MIRA en las localidades de Bogotá.

Congress composition and electoral advantage

In 2003, an electoral reform changed the mechanism to assign seats in the Colombian Congress. I simulate the 2006 Senate elections using the previous assignment mechanism to determine which senators benefited from the reform, i.e. would have not been elected had the reform not been made. With the results of the simulation, I use a regression discontinuity design to compare the senators that would have been barely elected anyways with those who would have lost, but were near to be elected. I check the differences in the amount of law drafts presented, the attendance to voting sessions, and a discipline index for each senator as proxy of their legislative behavior. I find that the senators benefiting from the reform present a different legislative behavior during the 4-year term with respect to the senators that would have been elected anyways. Since the differential legislative behavior cannot be interpreted as being better (worse) politician, I examine if the behavioral difference gives them an electoral advantage. I find no difference in the electoral result of 2010 Senate election in terms of the probability of being (re)elected in 2010, the share of votes, the share of votes within their party list, and the concentration of their votes. Additionally, I check the probability of being investigated for links with paramilitary groups and I find no differences. The results suggest that political reforms can change the composition of governing or legislative bodies in terms of performance, but it does not necessarily translate into an electoral advantage.

El liderazgo carismático religioso como elemento fundamental en la permanencia del movimiento independiente de renovación absoluta (MIRA) en el panorama electoral colombiano (2000-2014)

El propósito de esta investigación es explorar los efectos del liderazgo carismático religioso sobre el desempeño electoral y la supervivencia del movimiento político MIRA en Colombia. Para ello, emplea una metodología cualitativa, que se vale principalmente de entrevistas a profundidad y observación no participante, para acercarse a las prácticas religiosas y a las actitudes políticas de los fieles de la Iglesia de Dios Ministerial de Jesucristo Internacional. A partir de la información recabada a lo largo de este estudio, se pretende demostrar que hay una relación entre el tamaño de la congregación religiosa y el número de votos que obtiene el movimiento MIRA. Ello, gracias a que el papel que María Luisa Piraquive desempeña dentro de la comunidad religiosa contribuye a la legitimación del accionar del movimiento político y al surgimiento de un voluntariado activo dentro de este, que se comporta disciplinada y comprometidamente con los objetivos de dicha organización.

Electoral reform in Europe since 1945

This article surveys and analyses democratic electoral reform in Europe since 1945 in order to pursue three issues. First, it seeks understanding of the processes through which electoral systems change. Second, it asks how the incidence of these processes varies over context and time. Third, it investigates whether there are relationships between the nature of the processes through which electoral system change occurs and the electoral reforms that are thereby adopted. The analysis suggests, most importantly, that electoral system changes occur via multiple contrasting processes, that there is a tendency towards increasing impact of mass opinion upon these changes, and that this is beginning to generate a trend towards greater personalisation in the electoral systems adopted. These findings are, however, preliminary; the article is intended to encourage further discussion and research.

Mind the gap: Do proportional electoral systems foster a more equal representation of women and men, poor and rich?

Female gender and low income are two markers for groups that have been historically disadvantaged within most societies. The study explores two research questions related to their political representation: (1) ‘Are parties biased towards the ideological preferences of male and rich citizens?’; and (2) ‘Does the proportionality of the electoral system moderate the degree of under-representation of women and poor citizens in the party system?’ A multilevel analysis of survey data from 24 parliamentary democracies indicates that there is some bias against those with low income and, at a much smaller rate, women. This has systemic consequences for the quality of representation, as the preferences of the complementary groups differ. The proportionality of the electoral system influences the degree of under-representation: specifically, larger district magnitudes help in closing the considerable gap between rich and poor.

Electoral and Financial Bookkeeping: A Comparison of Pre-Electoral Pledges on Public Spending and the Outcome of Post-Electoral Budget Debates

In the wake of the financial crisis, budgetary discipline has taken centre stage in politics. More than ever a country's budget mirrors the true policy preferences of the legislative majority beyond all political discourse and cheap talk. The paper sheds light on mandate fulfilment in the field of public spending and fiscal policy in general. Based on previous work on pledge fulfilment in Switzerland the paper compares publicised pre-electoral statements of MPs on public spending and the development of the public finances with their post-electoral legislative behaviour during budget debates and votes. The findings of the paper confirm the results of the aforementioned earlier studies and point to the potential of budgetary statements for future mandate fulfilment research.