Modelos de avistamento de contactos no mar: estimação com distâncias de detecção inicial

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão da Informação

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Sample size for full-sib family evaluation in sugarcane

The objective of this study was to determine the minimum number of plants per plot that must be sampled in experiments with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) full-sib families in order to provide an effective estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters of yield-related traits. The data were collected in a randomized complete block design with 18 sugarcane full-sib families and 6 replicates, with 20 plants per plot. The sample size was determined using resampling techniques with replacement, followed by an estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters. Sample-size estimates varied according to the evaluated parameter and trait. The resampling method permits an efficient comparison of the sample-size effects on the estimation of genetic and phenotypic parameters. A sample of 16 plants per plot, or 96 individuals per family, was sufficient to obtain good estimates for all traits considered of all the characters evaluated. However, for Brix, if sample separation by trait were possible, ten plants per plot would give an efficient estimate for most of the characters evaluated.

A simple variance formula for population size estimators by conditioning

This note considers the variance estimation for population size estimators based on capture–recapture experiments. Whereas a diversity of estimators of the population size has been suggested, the question of estimating the associated variances is less frequently addressed. This note points out that the technique of conditioning can be applied here successfully which also allows us to identify sources of variation: the variance due to estimation of the model parameters and the binomial variance due to sampling n units from a population of size N. It is applied to estimators typically used in capture–recapture experiments in continuous time including the estimators of Zelterman and Chao and improves upon previously used variance estimators. In addition, knowledge of the variances associated with the estimators by Zelterman and Chao allows the suggestion of a new estimator as the weighted sum of the two. The decomposition of the variance into the two sources allows also a new understanding of how resampling techniques like the Bootstrap could be used appropriately. Finally, the sample size question for capture–recapture experiments is addressed. Since the variance of population size estimators increases with the sample size, it is suggested to use relative measures such as the observed-to-hidden ratio or the completeness of identification proportion for approaching the question of sample size choice.

A simple variance formula for population size estimators by conditioning

This note considers the variance estimation for population size estimators based on capture–recapture experiments. Whereas a diversity of estimators of the population size has been suggested, the question of estimating the associated variances is less frequently addressed. This note points out that the technique of conditioning can be applied here successfully which also allows us to identify sources of variation: the variance due to estimation of the model parameters and the binomial variance due to sampling n units from a population of size N. It is applied to estimators typically used in capture–recapture experiments in continuous time including the estimators of Zelterman and Chao and improves upon previously used variance estimators. In addition, knowledge of the variances associated with the estimators by Zelterman and Chao allows the suggestion of a new estimator as the weighted sum of the two. The decomposition of the variance into the two sources allows also a new understanding of how resampling techniques like the Bootstrap could be used appropriately. Finally, the sample size question for capture–recapture experiments is addressed. Since the variance of population size estimators increases with the sample size, it is suggested to use relative measures such as the observed-to-hidden ratio or the completeness of identification proportion for approaching the question of sample size choice.

Comparison Of Postoperative Stability Of Three Rigid Internal Fixation Techniques After Sagittal Split Ramus Osteotomy For Mandibular Advancement.

The aim of this investigation was to compare the skeletal stability of three different rigid fixation methods after mandibular advancement. Fifty-five class II malocclusion patients treated with the use of bilateral sagittal split ramus osteotomy and mandibular advancement were selected for this retrospective study. Group 1 (n = 17) had miniplates with monocortical screws, Group 2 (n = 16) had bicortical screws and Group 3 (n = 22) had the osteotomy fixed by means of the hybrid technique. Cephalograms were taken preoperatively, 1 week within the postoperative care period, and 6 months after the orthognathic surgery. Linear and angular changes of the cephalometric landmarks of the chin region were measured at each period, and the changes at each cephalometric landmark were determined for the time gaps. Postoperative changes in the mandibular shape were analyzed to determine the stability of fixation methods. There was minimum difference in the relapse of the mandibular advancement among the three groups. Statistical analysis showed no significant difference in postoperative stability. However, a positive correlation between the amount of advancement and the amount of postoperative relapse was demonstrated by the linear multiple regression test (p < 0.05). It can be concluded that all techniques can be used to obtain stable postoperative results in mandibular advancement after 6 months.

[health Protection For Rural Workers: The Need To Standardize Techniques For Quantifying Dermal Exposure To Pesticides].

Quantification of dermal exposure to pesticides in rural workers, used in risk assessment, can be performed with different techniques such as patches or whole body evaluation. However, the wide variety of methods can jeopardize the process by producing disparate results, depending on the principles in sample collection. A critical review was thus performed on the main techniques for quantifying dermal exposure, calling attention to this issue and the need to establish a single methodology for quantification of dermal exposure in rural workers. Such harmonization of different techniques should help achieve safer and healthier working conditions. Techniques that can provide reliable exposure data are an essential first step towards avoiding harm to workers' health.

Construction Of A Manual Of Work Processes And Techniques From Centro De Dispensação De Medicamentos De Alto Custo (cedmac), Hospital De Clínicas, Unicamp.

The Centers for High Cost Medication (Centros de Medicação de Alto Custo, CEDMAC), Health Department, São Paulo were instituted by project in partnership with the Clinical Hospital of the Faculty of Medicine, USP, sponsored by the Foundation for Research Support of the State of São Paulo (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, FAPESP) aimed at the formation of a statewide network for comprehensive care of patients referred for use of immunobiological agents in rheumatological diseases. The CEDMAC of Hospital de Clínicas, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (HC-Unicamp), implemented by the Division of Rheumatology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, identified the need for standardization of the multidisciplinary team conducts, in face of the specificity of care conducts, verifying the importance of describing, in manual format, their operational and technical processes. The aim of this study is to present the methodology applied to the elaboration of the CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual as an institutional tool, with the aim of offering the best assistance and administrative quality. In the methodology for preparing the manuals at HC-Unicamp since 2008, the premise was to obtain a document that is participatory, multidisciplinary, focused on work processes integrated with institutional rules, with objective and didactic descriptions, in a standardized format and with electronic dissemination. The CEDMAC/HC-Unicamp Manual was elaborated in 10 months, with involvement of the entire multidisciplinary team, with 19 chapters on work processes and techniques, in addition to those concerning the organizational structure and its annexes. Published in the electronic portal of HC Manuals in July 2012 as an e-Book (ISBN 978-85-63274-17-5), the manual has been a valuable instrument in guiding professionals in healthcare, teaching and research activities.

Comparison Of Different Transfer Impression Techniques Accuracy For Osseointegrated Implants.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate three transfer techniques used to obtain working casts of implant-supported prostheses through the marginal misfit and strain induced to metallic framework. Thirty working casts were obtained from a metallic master cast, each one containing two implant analogues simulating a clinical situation of three-unit implant-supported fixed prostheses, according to the following transfer impression techniques: Group A, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and acrylic resin, sectioned and re-splinted; Group B, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and bis-acrylic resin; and Group N, squared transfers not splinted. A metallic framework was made for marginal misfit and strain measurements from the metallic master cast. The misfit between metallic framework and the working casts was evaluated with an optical microscope following the single-screw test protocol. In the same conditions, the strain was evaluated using strain gauges placed on the metallic framework. The data was submitted to one-way ANOVA followed by the Tukey's test (α=5%). For both marginal misfit and strain, there were statistically significant differences between Groups A and N (p<0.01) and Groups B and N (p<0.01), with greater values for the Group N. According to the Pearson's test, there was a positive correlation between the variables misfit and strain (r=0.5642). The results of this study showed that the impression techniques with splinted transfers promoted better accuracy than non-splinted one, regardless of the splinting material utilized.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Comparison Of Techniques For The Isolation Of Volatiles From Cashew Apple Juice.

The aim of this study was to compare the performance of the following techniques on the isolation of volatiles of importance for the aroma/flavor of fresh cashew apple juice: dynamic headspace analysis using PorapakQ(®) as trap, solvent extraction with and without further concentration of the isolate, and solid-phase microextraction (fiber DVB/CAR/PDMS). A total of 181 compounds were identified, from which 44 were esters, 20 terpenes, 19 alcohols, 17 hydrocarbons, 15 ketones, 14 aldehydes, among others. Sensory evaluation of the gas chromatography effluents revealed esters (n = 24) and terpenes (n = 10) as the most important aroma compounds. The four techniques were efficient in isolating esters, a chemical class of high impact in the cashew aroma/flavor. However, the dynamic headspace methodology produced an isolate in which the analytes were in greater concentration, which facilitates their identification (gas chromatography-mass spectrometry) and sensory evaluation in the chromatographic effluents. Solvent extraction (dichloromethane) without further concentration of the isolate was the most efficient methodology for the isolation of terpenes. Because these two techniques also isolated in greater concentration the volatiles from other chemical classes important to the cashew aroma, such as aldehydes and alcohols, they were considered the most advantageous for the study of cashew aroma/flavor.

Comparative In vitro Mechanical Evaluation Of Techniques Using A 2.0 mm Locking Fixation System For Simulated Fractures Of The Mandibular Body.

To perform a comparative evaluation of the mechanical resistance of simulated fractures of the mandibular body which were repaired using different fixation techniques with two different brands of 2.0 mm locking fixation systems. Four aluminum hemimandibles with linear sectioning simulating a mandibular body fracture were used as the substrates and were fixed using the two techniques and two different brands of fixation plate. These were divided into four groups: groups I and II were fixed with one four-hole plate, with four 6 mm screws in the tension zone and one four-hole plate, with four 10 mm screws in the compression zone; and groups III and IV were fixed with one four-hole plate with four 6 mm screws in the neutral zone. Fixation plates manufactured by Tóride were used for groups I and III, and by Traumec for groups II and IV. The hemimandibles were submitted to vertical, linear load testing in an Instron 4411 servohydraulic mechanical testing unit, and the load/displacement (3 mm, 5 mm and 7 mm) and the peak loads were measured. Means and standard deviations were evaluated applying variance analysis with a significance level of 5%. The only significant difference between the brands was seen at displacements of 7 mm. Comparing the techniques, groups I and II showed higher mechanical strength than groups III and IV, as expected. For the treatment of mandibular linear body fracture, two locking plates, one in the tension zone and another in the compression zone, have a greater mechanical strength than a single locking plate in the neutral zone.

Authenticity study of Phyllanthus species by NMR and FT-IR Techniques coupled with chemometric methods

The importance of medicinal plants and their use in industrial applications is increasing worldwide, especially in Brazil. Phyllanthus species, popularly known as quebra-pedras in Brazil, are used in folk medicine for treating urinary infections and renal calculus. This paper reports an authenticity study, based on herbal drugs from Phyllanthus species, involving commercial and authentic samples using spectroscopic techniques: FT-IR, ¹H HR-MAS NMR and ¹H NMR in solution, combined with chemometric analysis. The spectroscopic techniques evaluated, coupled with chemometric methods, have great potential in the investigation of complex matrices. Furthermore, several metabolites were identified by the NMR techniques.

Comparative study of two autogenous graft techniques using piezosurgery for sinus lifting

PURPOSE: Maxillary sinus lifting is a technique, in which, a possible complication is sinus membrane perforation. The aim of this study was to compare two techniques using ultrasound surgery to perform autogenous graft for maxillary sinus lifting. METHODS: Ten rabbits were used in the study, one of them did not undergo surgery. The other nine rabbits had their maxillary sinuses filled with autogenous bone grafts collected from the external skull diploe in particulate form on the right side, and shaved on the left side, both with ultrasonic device. Data on bone density in left and right maxillary sinus, obtained by computed tomography in transverse and longitudinal sections, recorded 90 days after the grafts, were statistically compared. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences between the two techniques that used shaved and particulate bone collected by means of ultrasonic device from rabbit skulls. CONCLUSION: Assessment of operative procedures led to the conclusion that piezoelectric ultrasound was shown to be a safe tool in the surgical approach to the maxillary sinus of rabbits, allowing sinus membrane integrity to be maintained during surgical procedures.