Intrinsic ordering, combinatorial numbers and reliability engineering

[EN]A new algorithm for evaluating the top event probability of large fault trees (FTs) is presented. This algorithm does not require any previous qualitative analysis of the FT. Indeed, its efficiency is independent of the FT logic, and it only depends on the number n of basic system components and on their failure probabilities. Our method provides exact lower and upper bounds on the top event probability by using new properties of the intrinsic order relation between binary strings. The intrinsic order enables one to select binary n-tuples with large occurrence probabilities without necessity to evaluate them. This drastically reduces the complexity of the problem from exponential (2n binary n-tuples) to linear (n Boolean variables)...

Reliability concepts applied to cutting tool change time

This paper presents a reliability-based analysis for calculating critical tool life in machining processes. It is possible to determine the running time for each tool involved in the process by obtaining the operations sequence for the machining procedure. Usually, the reliability of an operation depends on three independent factors: operator, machine-tool and cutting tool. The reliability of a part manufacturing process is mainly determined by the cutting time for each job and by the sequence of operations, defined by the series configuration. An algorithm is presented to define when the cutting tool must be changed. The proposed algorithm is used to evaluate the reliability of a manufacturing process composed of turning and drilling operations. The reliability of the turning operation is modeled based on data presented in the literature, and from experimental results, a statistical distribution of drilling tool wear was defined, and the reliability of the drilling process was modeled. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bureau of Ships reliability design handbook.

"Contract NObsr 87433."

Monte Carlo Bayesian system reliability and MTBF-confidence assessment : report for period March, 1974 - August, 1975 /

"Performing organization: Oklahoma State University, College of Business Administration , Stillwater."

Reliability theory and practice. /

Mode of access: Internet.

Reliability program provisions for aeronautical and space system contractors /

"Formerly NPC 250-1."

The beta distribution in reliability and quality control /

Bibliography: leaves 41-43.

A safety assessment methodology applied to CNS/ATM-based air traffic control system

In the last decades, the air traffic system has been changing to adapt itself to new social demands, mainly the safe growth of worldwide traffic capacity. Those changes are ruled by the Communication, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) paradigm, based on digital communication technologies (mainly satellites) as a way of improving communication, surveillance, navigation and air traffic management services. However, CNS/ATM poses new challenges and needs, mainly related to the safety assessment process. In face of these new challenges, and considering the main characteristics of the CNS/ATM, a methodology is proposed at this work by combining ""absolute"" and ""relative"" safety assessment methods adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in ICAO Doc.9689 [14], using Fluid Stochastic Petri Nets (FSPN) as the modeling formalism, and compares the safety metrics estimated from the simulation of both the proposed (in analysis) and the legacy system models. To demonstrate its usefulness, the proposed methodology was applied to the ""Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcasting"" (ADS-B) based air traffic control system. As conclusions, the proposed methodology assured to assess CNS/ATM system safety properties, in which FSPN formalism provides important modeling capabilities, and discrete event simulation allowing the estimation of the desired safety metric. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of SEG on uniaxially strained MuGFET performance

This work focuses on the impact of the source and drain Selective Epitaxial Growth (SEG) on the performance of uniaxially strained MuGFETs. With the channel length reduction, the normalized transconductance (gm.L./W) of unstressed MuGFETs decreases due to the series resistance and short channel effects (SCE), while the presence of uniaxial strain improves the gm. The competition between the series resistance (R(s)) and the uniaxial strain results in a normalized gm maximum point for a specific channel length. Since the SEG structure influences both R(s) and the strain in the channel, this work studies from room down to low temperature how these effects influence the performance of the triple-gate FETs. For lower temperatures, the strain-induced mobility enhancement increases and leads to a shift in the maximum point towards shorter channel lengths for devices without SEG. This shift is not observed for devices with SEG where the strain level is much lower. At 150 K the gm behavior of short channel strained devices with SEG is similar to the non SEC ones due to the better gm temperature enhancement for devices without SEG caused by the strain. For lower temperatures SEG structure is not useful anymore. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strategic maintenance management

The approach to maintenance management has changed over the last one hundred years. Over the last few years, the Reliability Engineering and Risk Management Group (RERMG) at the University of Queensland has developed an approach called the strategic maintenance management (SMM) approach. The paper outlines the approach and contrasts it with the current approaches. It then discusses the industry-university partnership in the implementation of this approach and the current activities at the University of Queensland to assist industry in the implementation of the SMM approach.

Uncertainty analysis based on sensitivity applied to angle-ply composite structures

This article describes a finite element-based formulation for the statistical analysis of the response of stochastic structural composite systems whose material properties are described by random fields. A first-order technique is used to obtain the second-order statistics for the structural response considering means and variances of the displacement and stress fields of plate or shell composite structures. Propagation of uncertainties depends on sensitivities taken as measurement of variation effects. The adjoint variable method is used to obtain the sensitivity matrix. This method is appropriated for composite structures due to the large number of random input parameters. Dominant effects on the stochastic characteristics are studied analyzing the influence of different random parameters. In particular, a study of the anisotropy influence on uncertainties propagation of angle-ply composites is carried out based on the proposed approach.

Kenttätietojen hyödyntäminen taajuusmuuttajan luotettavuuden suunnittelussa

Taajuusmuuttaja on yhä yleisempi laite perinteisten oikosulkumoottoreiden nopeuden säädössä, niin teollisuudessa kuin muilla käyttökohteissa. Ensimmäiset laitetyypit olivat mekaanisesti suurikokoisia ja vaativat laitteen tekniseltä tuelta ja kunnossapidolta hyvää teknistä perehtyneisyyttä laitteisiin. Teknologian kehittymisen myötä laitteiden teho/kokosuhde on pienentynyt ja tarjolla on useita eri sovelluskohteisiin suoraan soveltuvia taajuusmuuttajia varustettuna helppokäyttöisillä ja kaupallisilla käyttöliittymillä. Laitteen elinkaaren aikainen luotettavuusjohtaminen edellyttää valmistajalta varsinaisen laitesuunnittelun lisäksi tarkoituksenmukaisia testausmenetelmiä ja kokemusperäistä luotettavuustietoa myös asennetusta laitekannasta. Työssä on käyty taajuusmuuttajan suunnittelun kannalta läpi luotettavuuden käsitteistö sekä yleisimpiä luotettavuusmenetelmiä. Luotettavuusnäkökohtia verrataan asennetusta laitekannasta saatuihin kokemuksiin laitteen valmistajan ja tuotetuen kannalta. Työssä on esitetty luokittelun perusteita ja menetelmät, miten käytön aikana voidaan arvioida laitteen teknistä tilaa sekä huomioida se kunnossapidon suunnittelussa. Johtopäätöksenä huomataan, että asennuspaikka ja käyttösovellus määrittävät taajuusmuuttajan käytettävyyden. Kenttätietoja voidaan hyödyntää paikallisen kunnossapidon kannalta kunnossapidon ja investointien suunnittelussa. Toisaalta valmistajan tuotekehitys saa asennetuista laitteista kokemuksia seuraavan sukupolven tyypin suunnittelun perustaksi. Tekniikan voimakkaan kehittymisen seurauksena uusien taajuusmuuttajatyyppien valmistus kestää yhä lyhyemmän ajanjakson, jolloin asennetusta laitekannasta saatu kenttäkokemus on arvokasta tietoa laitevalmistajalle. Yhteenvetona valmistajan laiterekistereitä voidaan kehittää siten, että niihin on tallennettavissa laitekartoitusten perusteella kerättyä informaatiota, jota niin valmistajan myynti, tuotetuki kuin laitesuunnittelu voi omassa toiminnassaan hyödyntää.

Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuustarkastelut

Diplomityössä tarkastellaan Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuuksia. Tason 2 riskitutkimuksissa tutkitaan ydinvoimalaitosonnettomuuksia, joiden seurauksena osa reaktorin radioaktiivisista aineista vapautuu ympäristöön. Näiden tutkimuksien päätulos on suuren päästön vuotuinen taajuus ja se on pääosin todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuva tilastollinen odotusarvo. Tämän odotusarvon uskottavuutta voidaan parantaa huomioimalla merkittävimmät laskentaan liittyvät epävarmuudet. Epävarmuuksia laskentaan aiheutuu muiden muassa vakavan reaktorionnettomuuden ilmiöistä, turvallisuusjärjestelmien laitteista, inhimillisistä toiminnoista sekä luotettavuusmallin määrittelemättömistä osista. Diplomityössä kuvataan, kuinka epävarmuustarkastelut integroidaan osaksi Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisia riskianalyysejä. Tämä toteutetaan diplomityössä kehitetyillä apuohjelmilla PRALA:lla ja PRATU:lla, joiden avulla voidaan lisätä laitoshistorian perusteella muodostetut epävarmuusparametrit osaksi riskianalyysien luotettavuusdataa. Lisäksi diplomityössä on laskettu laskentaesimerkkinä Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen suuren päästön vuotuisen taajuuden vaihtelua kuvaava luottamusväli. Tämä laskentaesimerkki pohjautuu pääosin konservatiivisiin epävarmuusarvioihin, ei todellisiin tilastollisiin epävarmuuksiin. Laskentaesimerkin tulosten perusteella Loviisan suuren päästön taajuudella on laaja vaihteluväli; virhekertoimeksi saatiin 8,4 nykyisillä epävarmuusparametreilla. Suuren päästön taajuuden luottamusväliä voidaan kuitenkin tulevaisuudessa supistaa, kun hyödynnetään todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuvia epävarmuusparametreja.

Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Characterizations of Life Distributions Using Conditional Expectations of Doubly (Interval) Truncated Random Variables

In this article, we study reliability measures such as geometric vitality function and conditional Shannon’s measures of uncertainty proposed by Ebrahimi (1996) and Sankaran and Gupta (1999), respectively, for the doubly (interval) truncated random variables. In survival analysis and reliability engineering, these measures play a significant role in studying the various characteristics of a system/component when it fails between two time points. The interrelationships among these uncertainty measures for various distributions are derived and proved characterization theorems arising out of them